Pick sheet

Race 212:34 PM Clm 7500bEarly Pick 4 starts

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Runsweetly, is 36% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #4, #6.

Top pick #6 Runsweetly ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▲ Up +7

Jockey R. Mena · Trainer M. Gorham · KEE 6: 0-1-1 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 8k n2l	Won/5	67	0.5-1	b L	4-3p;roused1/4;kick on
9/25	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k n2l	4th/7 -7½L	67	2.7-1	b L	Off slow;svgnd;improve
5/8	LRL	1m D	OC 20k	5th/6 -9½L	64	3.3-1	b L	Stp slw;bmp 5/8;ins

Case: Last out won in the fClm8000n2l at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 67-67-64. 1-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Laurel Park. M. Gorham / R. Mena.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1 1/16).

Contender #5 My Dear Antonia ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ★ Best at 1 1/16 dirt: 79

Jockey E. Rosario · Trainer C. Mancilla · KEE 9: 2-0-1 · Dist 3: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 79 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	DEL	1m D	Clm 10k b	2nd/8 -4L	65	9.3-1	L	Bump stdy st;4p;7p upr
8/21	CNL	1m T	Clm 16k b	11th/11 -11L	62	32-1	L	Trail;float 9w;no bid
3/21	LRL	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n3lc	3rd/5 -3L	71	1.9-1	L	Angl 3/8;4w mv;faded

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm10000b at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 65-62-71. Best at today's distance 79. 1-for-3 at the distance. 2-for-9 at Laurel Park. C. Mancilla / E. Rosario.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #3 Iamdependingonyou ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 64–67 ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79 Last out 3rd in the fClm7500b at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 64-65-66. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-3 at the distance. 2-for-11 at Laurel Park. C. Frock / A. Cruz. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Cruz · Trainer C. Frock · KEE 11: 2-0-2 · Dist 3: 0-0-2 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 37 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	3rd/7 -3½L	64	6.1-1	b L	Boxed in;stayed on 3rd
9/6	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/4 -3½L	65	5.1-1	b L	Off duel;3wd;grind
8/21	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	3rd/8 -5L	66	9.1-1	b L	Chased; gave way

Narrowing the field: A #5, #6, #7 · B #1, #2, #3 · C #4

Angles: #1 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #3 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #4 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #7 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

R2 Laurel Park · Claiming $7,500

12:34 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $18,000 · 6 runners (1 out)12:34 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 6 runners (1 out)

Official $18K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tea Rose▼Ran 4thR. Rodriguez · W. McMahonRodriguez · McMahonB68 66 62▲+6@trip 626-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +6 · career best68 66 62@trip 62B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 66 62

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer W Thomas McMahon 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Long Legged Luis 20-1, R9: Be Here 30-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST4/8 board here

Won last out in a 5-horse $7,500 claiming race at DEL. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 79 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d back

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	Won/5	68	1.6-1	b L	Lunge brek;wide turns
7/31	CNL	1m D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/5 -½L	66	8.7-1	b L	Stalk3w;bid4w;outkickd
6/13	LRL	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	2nd/5 -4½L	62	7.6-1	b L	4-3w;shadowed;wllng

2Margaret PRan 3rdJ. Briceno · J. MaganaBriceno · MaganaB60 73 63►@trip 565-1Fair 8-111%► Steady60 73 63@trip 56B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 56 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 73 63

Jockey Jean Gregor Briceno 28% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose J Magana 23% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R4: Union Fleet 20-1, R9: Naptown 9-2

6/11 board here

Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Lagged; 6w mild rally), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 190d back)

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jean Gregor Briceno from post 2 here: 7 wins, 33 top-3 in 123 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	4th/7 -5L	60	3.1-1	b L	Lagged;6w mild rally
10/9	LRL	1m D	OC 12k	4th/5 -3½L	73	12-1	b L	4wd;floated out;empty
9/20	LRL	1m D	ROC 1-65	6th/7 -13L	63	63-1	b L	Failed to threaten

3Iamdependingonyou▼Ran 6thA. Cruz · C. FrockCruz · FrockB64 65 66►≡@trip 377-2Fair 5-116%► Steady64 65 66 ≡@trip 37B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 793

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–67 · Best fig at today's trip 37 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 65 66

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Charles A Frock 24% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Smokeshow 4-1, R1: Dani Girl 4-1, R3: Mister Patapsco 30-1, R4: Majorca 5-2 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. 3rd last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 7.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Boxed in; stayed on 3rd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 30d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 3 here: 23 wins, 64 top-3 in 174 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	3rd/7 -3½L	64	6.1-1	b L	Boxed in;stayed on 3rd
9/6	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/4 -3½L	65	5.1-1	b L	Off duel;3wd;grind
8/21	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	3rd/8 -5L	66	9.1-1	b L	Chased; gave way

4Spice Gal▼Ran 1stL. Briceno · I. FloresBriceno · FloresC52 67 56▼▼-11@trip 6720-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1152 67 56@trip 67C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 67 56

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Irvin G Flores 33% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Dale's Bluff 20-1, R6: Stroll Trippin 30-1, R8: Sometime 9-5

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

A 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. A 86-day gap since its last race.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.40 on Oct 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	DEL	1m D	Clm 7k b	5th/6 -6½L	52	7.8-1	b L	Rail; gave way
6/20	DEL	1m D	Clm 7k n2l	Won/8	67	5.8-1	b L	Vied; kicked clear
3/26	PEN	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/4 -6L	56	6.9-1	b L	Saved ground;no factor

5My Dear Antonia★Ran 2ndE. Rosario · C. MancillaRosario · MancillaA65 62 71►@trip 795-2Fair 7-223%► Steady65 62 71@trip 79A★ Best at the trip 792

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 62 71

★ Best at the trip 79

Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Carlos A Mancilla 27% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Country Economics 6-1, R9: Seeking Unity 10-1 · Trainer R1: Mendelssohn Adi 30-1

CLASS DROP4/7 board here

Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 75 next best.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump stdy st; 4p; 7p upr. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	DEL	1m D	Clm 10k b	2nd/8 -4L	65	9.3-1	L	Bump stdy st;4p;7p upr
8/21	CNL	1m T	Clm 16k b	11th/11 -11L	62	32-1	L	Trail;float 9w;no bid
3/21	LRL	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n3lc	3rd/5 -3L	71	1.9-1	L	Angl 3/8;4w mv;faded

6RunsweetlyRan 5thR. Mena · M. GorhamMena · GorhamA67 67 64▲+72-1Fair 9-536%▲ Up +767 67 64A1

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 67 67 64

Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Michael E Gorham 32% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Hysterics 30-1 · Trainer R9: Omaha Omaha 15-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 5-horse $8,000 claiming race at DEL at 0.5-1. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 85).

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Raul E Mena from post 6 here: 10 wins, 35 top-3 in 82 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 8k n2l	Won/5	67	0.5-1	b L	4-3p;roused1/4;kick on
9/25	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k n2l	4th/7 -7½L	67	2.7-1	b L	Off slow;svgnd;improve
5/8	LRL	1m D	OC 20k	5th/6 -9½L	64	3.3-1	b L	Stp slw;bmp 5/8;ins

7Gregorian Solo▼J. Betancourt · L. LugovichBetancourt · LugovichA68 43 58▲▲+16↕15-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1668 43 58 ↕A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–68 · Last 3 figs 68 43 58

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Jose R Betancourt 19% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Lisa L Lugovich 19% career

CLASS DROP

Jockey switch: Carol Cedeno last out, Jose R Betancourt today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 79 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump 1st; by-faders), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	DEL	1m D	Clm 8k b	4th/9 -8L	68	18-1	b L	Bump 1st;by-faders
8/12	FL	6f D	Clm 11k n3l	7th/7 -5¾L	43	9.6-1	b L	Retrned sore;vnnd off
4/4	AQU	1m D	Clm 17k b	7th/10 -9½L	58	92-1	b L	7w 1/4; tired; equ amb

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #4, #6.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Runsweetly, finished 5th.

1st4Spice GalWin$32.40Place$8.80Show$7.20Our #6

2nd5My Dear AntoniaWin—Place$4.60Show$2.80Our #2

3rd2Margaret PWin—Place—Show$3.60Our #5

4th1Tea RoseOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

7 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

12:34 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#6 · 36%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 101.8

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Runsweetly (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 67 · 67 · 64. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 My Dear Antonia at 5-2. Use #3 Iamdependingonyou in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Spice Gal won (our #6) · top pick Runsweetly ran 5th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #6)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 2nd, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 RUNSWEETLY	5th
#2	#5 MY DEAR ANTONIA	2nd
#3	#3 IAMDEPENDINGONYOU	6th
#4	#1 TEA ROSE	4th
#5	#2 MARGARET P	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#4 Spice Gal	our #6
2nd	#5 My Dear Antonia	our #2
3rd	#2 Margaret P	our #5
4th	#1 Tea Rose	our #4
5th	#6 Runsweetly	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 RUNSWEETLY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 RUNSWEETLY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.5% to their 26.4%).
#5 MY DEAR ANTONIA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.7% to their 22.7%).
#3 IAMDEPENDINGONYOU — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #6 Runsweetly; pressure from #1 Tea Rose, #4 Spice Gal.

Lead

none

Press

6Runsweetly851Tea Rose734Spice Gal68

Stalk

3Iamdependingonyou805My Dear Antonia72

7Gregorian Solo712Margaret P69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Runsweetly

Iamdependingonyou

Tea Rose

My Dear Antonia

Spice Gal

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Gregorian Solo

Margaret P

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA & TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

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