Pick sheet

Race 31:03 PM Md Sp Wt

1 1/16 Mi · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Let's Be Frank, is 35% to win (morning line implies 31%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #10 Let's Be Frank ML 3-2 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 1 1/16 turf: 85 ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81

Jockey F. Boyce · Trainer E. Allard · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 85 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	BEL	1⅛m T	MSW	2nd/9 -1½L	83	4.2-1	b L	Tracked 2p; ran on
9/3	KD	1½m T	MSW	5th/12 -7½L	74	2.3-1	b L	Bmp st;ins;tipd out
7/19	ELP	1⅛m T	MSW	5th/10 -4½L	87	2.3-1	b L	Stmbld st;gd late gain

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 83-74-87. Best at today's distance 85. 0-for-2 at the distance. E. Allard / F. Boyce.

Knock: Never raced at Laurel Park. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #5 Daring Grace ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 1st-time blinkers 1st-time Lasix

Jockey J. Ruiz · Trainer A. Delacour · 324 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
12/12	DUD	7f D	MSW	2nd/12	—	5.0-1
11/28	DUD	6f D	MSW	6th/13	—	3.0-1
10/29	DUD	7f D	MSW	5th/14	—	40-1

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at DUD. A. Delacour / J. Ruiz.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 7f). Off 324 days.

Use #1 War Ace ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 81 1st-time blinkers Last out 10th/10 -7¼L in the MdSpWt at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 67. Best at today's distance 67. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Laurel Park. A. Delacour / M. Sanchez. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer A. Delacour · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 67 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	MSW	10th/10 -7¼L	67	17-1	L	Tight start; back

Longshot #4 Hard Freeze ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ► Steady

Jockey J. Barbosa · Trainer S. Stettinius · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	1m D	MSW	4th/6 -6½L	77	18-1	b L	Stalked 2w; flattened
10/9	DEL	5f T	MSW	3rd/8 -5L	71	18-1	b L	Gaining; needed more
6/24	DEL	6f D	MCL 25kc	2nd/5	84	1.4-1	b L	Fwd; led turn; kept on

Case: Last out 4th/6 -6½L in the MdSpWt at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 77-71-84. S. Stettinius / J. Barbosa.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1m). Never raced at Laurel Park.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #10 · B #1, #6, #8 · C #7, #9 · ? #3, #5 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #7 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #9 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #10 Last fig 83 at/above par 81

R3 Laurel Park · Maiden Special Weight

1:03 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $47,000 · 9 runners (1 out)1:03 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 9 runners (1 out)

Official $47K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1War Ace▼Ran 2ndM. Sanchez · A. DelacourSanchez · DelacourB67@trip 674-1Fair 5-117%—67@trip 67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 813
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 9-for-56 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Arnaud Delacour 33% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey this race: Max Haste 5-1, R5: Awards Ceremony 5-1, R7: Enduring Gold 8-1, R8: Overspent 6-1 · Trainer this race: Daring Grace 7-2, R5: Awards Ceremony 5-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 81 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 1 here: 26 wins, 67 top-3 in 130 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 LRL 1 1/16 T MSW 10th/10 -7¼L 67 17-1 L Tight start; back
2Fancy GentlemanRan 6thS. Russell · E. WestRussell · WestA72 60 84►↕9-2Fair 7-112%► Steady72 60 84 ↕A
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–84 · Last 3 figs 72 60 84
Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-21 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Ethan W West 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Yo Adrian 5-2, R7: Biscuitwiththeboss 9-5, R9: Regalo 1-1
60D LAYOFF
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 2 here: 28 wins, 61 top-3 in 124 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/2 IND 6f D MSW 4th/9 -4½L 72 3.7-1 L Settled5p;no late bid
2/21 GP 1⅛m D MSW 4th/6 -9L 60 1.4-1 L Track3w;rousd1/4;tired
1/10 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/9 84 11-1 L Bid3w;shied crop 1/16
3Friendship SloopRan 5thV. Cheminaud · M. MatzCheminaud · Matz?12-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 3-for-22 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Michael R Matz 31% career 3-for-10 on turf this meet (30%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Quality Swag 15-1, R5: Lupine 12-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Good Magic out of My Desdemona. This barn has 53 first-time starters on record and wins 13% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 8d back
Last three races
First start. By Good Magic out of My Desdemona (Mineshaft)
Trainer M. Matz: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 32% in the money (53 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 40% in the money (35 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 38% in the money (128 starts)
Jockey V. Cheminaud in turf: 11 wins from 84 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 FAI 5f 1:02.20 breezing 5/13
10/10 FAI 4f :49.00 breezing 10/30
9/20 FAI 4f :48.80 breezing 2/6
9/13 FAI 4f :49.00 breezing 5/14
8/25 FAI 4f :50.00 breezing 8/12 from gate
4Hard FreezeLSRan 8thJ. Barbosa · S. StettiniusBarbosa · StettiniusA77 71 84►15-1Fair 15-16%► Steady77 71 84ALS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 71 84
LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-44 on turf this meet (23%) · Trainer Suzanne Stettinius 27% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, R4: All The Hardways 5-1, R5: Hot Boss 12-1, R9: Vaya Jeffe 5-1 · Trainer R5: Hot Boss 12-1, R5: Fahnee 30-1
Switches from dirt to turf. Last out was 4th, 6½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LRL.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 4 here: 21 wins, 56 top-3 in 142 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 LRL 1m D MSW 4th/6 -6½L 77 18-1 b L Stalked 2w; flattened
10/9 DEL 5f T MSW 3rd/8 -5L 71 18-1 b L Gaining; needed more
6/24 DEL 6f D MCL 25kc 2nd/5 84 1.4-1 b L Fwd; led turn; kept on
5Daring GraceRan 3rdJ. Ruiz · A. DelacourRuiz · Delacour?7-2Fair 5-117%——?2
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 8-for-45 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Arnaud Delacour 33% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Cool Hard Breeze 6-1, R7: Big Bolton 4-1 · Trainer this race: War Ace 4-1, R5: Awards Ceremony 5-1
180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 16/60 from post 5
324 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Arnaud Delacour takes over the training from Joseph *o'brien.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Jorge Ruiz from post 5 here: 16 wins, 30 top-3 in 60 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
12/12 DUD 7f D MSW 2nd/12 — 5.0-1
11/28 DUD 6f D MSW 6th/13 — 3.0-1
10/29 DUD 7f D MSW 5th/14 — 40-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/2	IND	6f D	MSW	4th/9 -4½L	72	3.7-1	L	Settled5p;no late bid
2/21	GP	1⅛m D	MSW	4th/6 -9L	60	1.4-1	L	Track3w;rousd1/4;tired
1/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/9	84	11-1	L	Bid3w;shied crop 1/16

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	FAI	5f	1:02.20	breezing	5/13
10/10	FAI	4f	:49.00	breezing	10/30
9/20	FAI	4f	:48.80	breezing	2/6
9/13	FAI	4f	:49.00	breezing	5/14
8/25	FAI	4f	:50.00	breezing	8/12	from gate

6Irish NunsenseRan 7thC. Lopez · S. CooneyLopez · CooneyB77 78 74►≡@trip 7715-1Fair 30-13%► Steady77 78 74 ≡@trip 77B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–78 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 78 74

Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 3-for-37 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Susan S Cooney 22% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Rampagius 9-2 · Trainer R1: Cool Hard Breeze 6-1, R5: Carolina Sun 15-1

0/3 board here

Still looking for the first win after 7 starts. Beaten 3 lengths for 6th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LRL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Tight; brush rail early last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 5d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 6 here: 17 wins, 40 top-3 in 110 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	MSW	6th/10 -3L	77	24-1	b L	Tight;brush rail early
9/7	CNL	1m T	rMdSpWt	3rd/9 -2L	78	8.5-1	b L	Svd gnd;improved
8/21	CNL	1 1/16 T	rMdSpWt	2nd/6	74	16-1	b L	Took up 7/8; led late

7Mister Patapsco▼Ran 9thA. Cruz · K. DeiterCruz · DeiterC68 61 63▲+630-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +6 · career best68 61 63C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 68 61 63

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 4-for-44 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter 24% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Smokeshow 4-1, R1: Dani Girl 4-1, R2: Iamdependingonyou 7-2, R4: Majorca 5-2 +1 more

CLASS DROP

Raises its level, maiden claiming $30,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 22d ago

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 7 here: 19 wins, 57 top-3 in 154 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DEL	5½f D	MCL 20k	3rd/6 -3½L	68	13-1	b L	2p;angled5p1/8;up show
9/16	DEL	1m D	Moc40000	5th/6 -15L	61	22-1	L	Saved ground; evenly
8/6	DEL	6f D	MCL 25k	6th/9 -3¾L	63	52-1	L	No factor; rail turn

8Max HasteM. Sanchez · M. PinoSanchez · PinoB79 705-1<1%—79 70B
Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 79 70
Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 9-for-56 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Michael V Pino 36% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey this race: War Ace 4-1, R5: Awards Ceremony 5-1, R7: Enduring Gold 8-1, R8: Overspent 6-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
New trainer: Michael Stidham had it last time, Michael V Pino now. Freshened 142 days. Watch how its recent works look.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (3wd turns; brush 3/16), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 16 (5F in 1:01.80), 4 works in 30d
RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 8 here: 10 wins, 25 top-3 in 64 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/12 LRL 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/6 -2L 79 1.8-1 L 3wd turns;brush 3/16
5/22 PEN 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/5 70 1.9-1 L Chase;2p;duel;miss
9Coach Michael▼Ran 4thM. Chuan · J. VargasChuan · VargasC69 61 64▲+630-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +6 · career best69 61 64C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 69 61 64
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Jose Antonio Vargas 29% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Darrens Delight 15-1, R4: Winston Wolf 15-1, R6: Share Success 5-2, R9: Can Group 6-1
A step up in company: maiden claiming $25,000 before, maiden special weight today. Changes barns, from Thomas Houghton to Jose Antonio Vargas.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
RECORD Martin Chuan from post 9 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 21 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/18 DEL 1m T MCL 25k 3rd/8 -2L 69 9.2-1 L 4-w 2nd; gave way
8/27 PEN 6f D MCL 25k 3rd/6 -1L 61 3.4-1 L Hustled;dueled;weakend
8/14 PEN 6f D MSW 3rd/6 -5½L 64 8.8-1 L Off slow;swung 5w 3/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/12	LRL	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/6 -2L	79	1.8-1	L	3wd turns;brush 3/16
5/22	PEN	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/5	70	1.9-1	L	Chase;2p;duel;miss

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	DEL	1m T	MCL 25k	3rd/8 -2L	69	9.2-1	L	4-w 2nd; gave way
8/27	PEN	6f D	MCL 25k	3rd/6 -1L	61	3.4-1	L	Hustled;dueled;weakend
8/14	PEN	6f D	MSW	3rd/6 -5½L	64	8.8-1	L	Off slow;swung 5w 3/16

10Let's Be Frank▲★Ran 1stF. Boyce · E. AllardBoyce · AllardA83 74 87►@trip 853-2Fair 9-535%► Steady83 74 87@trip 85A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81★ Best at the trip 851

Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 74 87

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81★ Best at the trip 85

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 7-for-40 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Edward T Allard 33% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Chimney Sweep 6-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. 2nd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 9.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 10 here: 7 wins, 20 top-3 in 44 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	BEL	1⅛m T	MSW	2nd/9 -1½L	83	4.2-1	b L	Tracked 2p; ran on
9/3	KD	1½m T	MSW	5th/12 -7½L	74	2.3-1	b L	Bmp st;ins;tipd out
7/19	ELP	1⅛m T	MSW	5th/10 -4½L	87	2.3-1	b L	Stmbld st;gd late gain

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #10 Let's Be Frank, won.

1st10Let's Be FrankWin$3.80Place$2.60Show$2.10Our #1

2nd1War AceWin—Place$7.60Show$5.40Our #3

3rd5Daring Grace (gb)Win—Place—Show$3.20Our #2

4th9Coach MichaelOur #8

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$47,000

Post

1:03 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#10 · 35%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.22

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Let's Be Frank (a closer, M/L 3-2). Recent figures: 83 · 74 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Daring Grace at 7-2. Use #1 War Ace in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Let's Be Frank won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, —, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#10 LET'S BE FRANK	1st
#2	#5 DARING GRACE	—
#3	#1 WAR ACE	2nd
#4	#2 FANCY GENTLEMAN	6th
#5	#4 HARD FREEZE	8th

Actual finish

1st	#10 Let's Be Frank	our #1
2nd	#1 War Ace	our #3
3rd	Daring Grace (GB)	unranked
4th	#9 Coach Michael	our #8
5th	#3 Friendship Sloop	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #10 LET'S BE FRANK (3-2) — our number agrees.
#10 LET'S BE FRANK — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.3% to their 27.8%).
#5 DARING GRACE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.0%, they've got 15.5%.
#1 WAR ACE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.7%, they've got 13.9%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 DARING GRACE — we make it 19.0%, the morning line works out to 15.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 WAR ACE — we make it 17.7%, the morning line works out to 13.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 HARD FREEZE (15-1) — our fair 5.2% is above the morning line's 4.3%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Fancy Gentleman; pressure from #8 Max Haste, #4 Hard Freeze; the shape helps #4 Hard Freeze, #6 Irish Nunsense, #9 Coach Michael; and works against #1 War Ace, #2 Fancy Gentleman, #3 Friendship Sloop.

Lead

2Fancy Gentleman848Max Haste74

Press

4Hard Freeze829Coach Michael77

Stalk

6Irish Nunsense72

10Let's Be Frank807Mister Patapsco75

No style yet

1War Ace553Friendship Sloop5Daring Grace

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Fancy Gentleman

Hard Freeze

Coach Michael

Max Haste

Irish Nunsense

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mister Patapsco

Let's Be Frank

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / PICK 4 (RACES 3-4-5-6)

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