Pick sheet

Race 52:03 PM Clm 16000b

5.5F · Turf · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, Yo Adrian, is 31% to win (morning line implies 24%). Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #11 Yo Adrian ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 75

Jockey S. Russell · Trainer B. Russell · KEE 8: 1-5-0 · Dist 13: 2-6-2 · best fig at 5½f turf 85 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	2nd/11 -4L	85	3.5-1	b L	Swung5w;willing;nod2nd
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	3rd/9 -6L	73	1.0-1	b L	2w;angld 7w;late rally
8/23	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	Won/11 by 1	77	4.3-1	b L	Steered 5w; late surge

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm16000b at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 85-73-77. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-13 at the distance. 1-for-8 at Laurel Park. B. Russell / S. Russell.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Awards Ceremony ML 5-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer A. Delacour · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 3: 2-0-0 · best fig at 5½f turf 81 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	Won/10	71	2.3-1	b L	Rail;was pressed;drvng
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 30k n2l	4th/6 -5L	71	3.0-1	b L	Chase;svd gnd;wkn
8/9	CNL	5½f T	MCL 16k	Won/12	81	10-1	b L	Pulled away 5/16ths pl

Case: Last out won in the fClm16000n2l at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 71-71-81. Best at today's distance 81. 2-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Laurel Park. A. Delacour / M. Sanchez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #2 Contra ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ≡ Steady 74–83 ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 75 Last out won in the fClm16000n2l at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 83-77-75. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-7 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Laurel Park. S. Nagle / H. Karamanos. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey H. Karamanos · Trainer S. Nagle · KEE 5: 2-0-1 · Dist 7: 2-2-1 · best fig at 5½f turf 83 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	Won/12	83	1.6-1	b L	Stalked;outside;drvng
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 30k n2l	2nd/6 -1L	77	3.0-1	b L	Stalk;2p;chase on
8/6	CNL	6f T	Clm 30k n2l	4th/9 -3L	75	21-1	b L	2wd; evenly

Longshot #5 Pretty Lavish ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -48 ↕ Up and down 29–79

Jockey J. Rodriguez · Trainer P. Schoenthal · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	1m D	Clm 16k bc	6th/6 -29L	29	1.8-1	b L	Trailed
8/2	SAR	1⅛m T	OC 45k	5th/9 -2¾L	74	12-1	b L	Keen;2-3p;6p1/4;bmpd
7/3	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 45k	5th/8 -5¼L	79	8.2-1	L	6w upper; improved

Case: Last out 6th/6 -29L in the fClm16000bc at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 29-74-79. P. Schoenthal / J. Rodriguez.

Knock: Never raced at Laurel Park.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #11 · B #5, #9, #13 · C #1, #3, #4, #7, #8, #10, #12, #14, #15, #16

Angles: #2 Last fig 83 at/above par 75 · #3 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #11 Last fig 85 at/above par 75 · #13 Last fig 80 at/above par 75

R5 Laurel Park · Claiming $16,000

2:03 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $24,000 · 12 runners (4 out)2:03 PM · 5½f Turf · 12 runners (4 out)

Official $24K · Claiming $16,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Thirst For HopeRan 8thJ. Rocco Jr. · L. AshbyRocco Jr. · AshbyC72 45 74▲+5↕@trip 4530-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +572 45 74 ↕@trip 45C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–83 · Best fig at today's trip 45 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 45 74

Jockey J S Jr Rocco 2-for-23 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Lynn Ashby 26% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Blazing Bridgette 20-1

Drops from allowance to $16,000 claiming. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	DEL	5f D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -12L	72	12-1	b L	No speed;came out 9wd
7/9	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	11th/11 -18L	45	72-1	b L	Off slow;outrun
5/16	DEL	5½f D	OC 32k n2x	4th/5 -4½L	74	7.0-1	b L	Inside;3p;no threat

2Contra▲Ran 1stH. Karamanos · S. NagleKaramanos · NagleA83 77 75▲▲+8≡@trip 837-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best83 77 75 ≡@trip 83A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 753

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 74–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 77 75

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 75

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 6-for-46 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Sarah Nagle 24% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Rock Talk 20-1, R4: Don't Wait Up 6-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST3/5 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 12-horse $20,000 claiming race at LRL. An 83 in its last five clears the 75 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 2 here: 16 wins, 41 top-3 in 103 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	Won/12	83	1.6-1	b L	Stalked;outside;drvng
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 30k n2l	2nd/6 -1L	77	3.0-1	b L	Stalk;2p;chase on
8/6	CNL	6f T	Clm 30k n2l	4th/9 -3L	75	21-1	b L	2wd; evenly

3Bonita Diamond▼Ran 10thL. Ocasio · C. MarquezOcasio · MarquezC70 69 64▲+4≡@trip 5930-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +4 · career best70 69 64 ≡@trip 59C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 64–70 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 69 64

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Cesareo Marquez 25% career

Figures are climbing: 64, 69, 70 over its last three. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $16,000 claiming now.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 8d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MED	5f T	Clm 5k b	2nd/6	70	5.8-1	b L	Inside duel; gamely
9/25	MED	5f T	Clm 7k n3l	5th/7 -3L	69	41-1	b L	Chased inside; evenly
8/14	MTH	5f T	Clm 12k	6th/8 -5¾L	64	28-1	b L	4w into lane; weakened

4LupineRan 11thV. Cheminaud · D. DoughertyCheminaud · DoughertyC58 75 66▼▼-12@trip 7512-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1258 75 66@trip 75C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 75 66

Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 3-for-22 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Devon Dougherty 14% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Quality Swag 15-1, R3: Friendship Sloop 12-1

Jockey switch: Kendry Rivera last out, Vincent Cheminaud today. A 50-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 11d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	MTH	5½f T	Alw s	8th/8 -5¼L	58	11-1	b L	Stalked leaders; faded
8/15	MTH	5½f T	Clm 16k n2x	Won/5	75	1.8-1	b L	Set pace; clear
7/31	MTH	5f T	Clm 16k n2l	5th/5 -6L	66	2.1-1	L	Hopped; off slow

5Pretty LavishLSRan 9thJ. Rodriguez · P. SchoenthalRodriguez · SchoenthalB29 74 79▼▼-48↕8-1Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -4829 74 79 ↕BLS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -48 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–79 · Last 3 figs 29 74 79
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 8-for-55 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Phil Schoenthal 27% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Cara's Dreamweaver 3-2, R1: Kool Kay 12-1, R6: Maidstone 10-1, R8: Tartabull 5-1 +1 more
CLASS DROP
Changes barns, from Amelia J Green to Phil Schoenthal. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 15d back
RECORD Jamie Rodriguez from post 5 here: 33 wins, 85 top-3 in 169 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 LRL 1m D Clm 16k bc 6th/6 -29L 29 1.8-1 b L Trailed
8/2 SAR 1⅛m T OC 45k 5th/9 -2¾L 74 12-1 b L Keen;2-3p;6p1/4;bmpd
7/3 SAR 1 1/16 T OC 45k 5th/8 -5¼L 79 8.2-1 L 6w upper; improved

6Awards CeremonyRan 5thM. Sanchez · A. DelacourSanchez · DelacourA71 71 81►@trip 815-1Fair 9-219%► Steady71 71 81@trip 81A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 71 81

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 9-for-56 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Arnaud Delacour 33% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: War Ace 4-1, R3: Max Haste 5-1, R7: Enduring Gold 8-1, R8: Overspent 6-1 · Trainer R3: War Ace 4-1, R3: Daring Grace 7-2

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance. Won last out in a 10-horse $16,000 claiming race at LRL.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 6 here: 15 wins, 53 top-3 in 122 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	Won/10	71	2.3-1	b L	Rail;was pressed;drvng
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 30k n2l	4th/6 -5L	71	3.0-1	b L	Chase;svd gnd;wkn
8/9	CNL	5½f T	MCL 16k	Won/12	81	10-1	b L	Pulled away 5/16ths pl

7Police WomanRan 6thJ. Vargas · J. WooditVargas · WooditC60 74 62▼▼-8@trip 7430-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -860 74 62@trip 74C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 74 62

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-29 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Joseph Woodit 21% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey this race: Carolina Sun 15-1, R6: Tasty Time 6-5, R7: Watch Out World 30-1, R8: J C's Boys 2-1 +1 more

0/10 board here

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Angled 6wd; no rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago

RECORD Never on the board here in 10 starts

RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 7 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LRL	5½f D	Clm 16k b	6th/8 -10L	60	38-1	L	Angled 6wd; no rally
9/20	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	11th/11 -10L	74	84-1	L	Fell back;inside;flat
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	9th/9 -8L	62	57-1	L	3w;6w upr;no menace

8Dale's BluffRan 12thL. Briceno · P. CapuanoBriceno · CapuanoC58 77 74▼▼-9↕@trip 7720-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -958 77 74 ↕@trip 77C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 77 74

Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career 3-for-30 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Phillip Capuano 37% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Spice Gal 20-1, R6: Stroll Trippin 30-1, R8: Sometime 9-5 · Trainer R8: Sometime 9-5

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Carries 110 pounds, 9 less than last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LRL	5½f D	Clm 16k b	7th/8 -7L	58	21-1	L	Pace; headed; faded
9/20	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	7th/11 -3½L	77	10-1	L	Tracked rail;movd out
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	2nd/9 -2½L	74	25-1	L	Track ins;improved

9GranuaileRan 7thM. Burnham · J. MurphyBurnham · MurphyB65 85 67▼-4↕@trip 8520-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -465 85 67 ↕@trip 85B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 85 67

Jockey Matilda Burnham 21% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Joseph M Murphy 31% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: God I Need A Favor 20-1, R6: Christy My Love 20-1 · Trainer R6: Stroll Trippin 30-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, $16,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 70d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Matilda Burnham from post 9 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 22 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LRL	5½f D	Clm 16k b	5th/8 -7½L	65	41-1	b L	Mild rally 7 wide
9/19	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	5th/10 -5¼L	85	85-1	b L	Angled 6wd; mildly
8/28	CNL	5½f T	frClm16000b	7th/8 -6½L	67	18-1	b L	Stp slw;4w;7w upr

10Air MasqueRan 4thC. Marquez · B. Perkins Jr.Marquez · Perkins Jr.C65 79 70▼-4@trip 7320-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -465 79 70@trip 73C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 79 70

Jockey Charlie Marquez 29% career 4-for-23 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Ben Jr Perkins 14% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Lucky Esther 7-2

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 5½ furlongs off a a mile race. A big drop, optional claiming to $16,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 22 (4F in :47.40), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	MED	1m T	fsOC30000n2x	6th/7 -5L	65	11-1	b L	Stalked 2w; tired
8/23	MTH	5½f D	fsOC15000n1x	Won/8 by 1	79	14-1	b L	Rail rally; best late
8/1	MTH	-5½f T	fsOC15000n1x	3rd/10 -6½L	70	22-1	L	Bumped start; 3w

11Yo Adrian▲Ran 2ndS. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA85 73 77▲▲+11@trip 855-2Fair 5-230%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best85 73 77@trip 85A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 751

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 73 77

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 75

Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-21 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-30 on turf this meet (37%), #1 of 34 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Fancy Gentleman 9-2, R7: Biscuitwiththeboss 9-5, R9: Regalo 1-1 · Trainer R7: Biscuitwiththeboss 9-5, R9: Regalo 1-1

4/7 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 85 against 83 for the next best. Worked 4F in :47.40 on May 26, 3rd of 34 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung5w; willing; nod2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 9d back

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 11 here: 6 wins, 13 top-3 in 30 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	2nd/11 -4L	85	3.5-1	b L	Swung5w;willing;nod2nd
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	3rd/9 -6L	73	1.0-1	b L	2w;angld 7w;late rally
8/23	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	Won/11 by 1	77	4.3-1	b L	Steered 5w; late surge

12Hot BossRan 3rdJ. Barbosa · S. StettiniusBarbosa · StettiniusC17 45 73▼▼-46↕@trip 7212-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -4617 45 73 ↕@trip 72C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -46 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 17–73 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 17 45 73

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-44 on turf this meet (23%) · Trainer Suzanne Stettinius 27% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, R3: Hard Freeze 15-1, R4: All The Hardways 5-1, R9: Vaya Jeffe 5-1 · Trainer R3: Hard Freeze 15-1, this race: Fahnee 30-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 45 to 17. Last out was 8th, 20 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at LRL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 43d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 12 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 24 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LRL	5½f D	Clm 16k b	8th/8 -20L	17	23-1	b L	Off slowly; no threat
10/4	LRL	5½f D	frAlw45600n1x	4th/4 -5L	45	9.2-1	b L	Pace;headed;gave way
8/1	DEL	-8.31818f T	OC 16k	8th/10 -3½L	73	9.2-1	b L	Rail; gave way;

13Eachpeachpearplum▲A. Cruz · A. PecoraroCruz · PecoraroB80 73 79▲+4≡@trip 716-1<1%▲ Up +4 · career best80 73 79 ≡@trip 71B▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 75

Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 73–80 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 73 79

▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 75

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 4-for-44 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Anthony Pecoraro 29% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Smokeshow 4-1, R1: Dani Girl 4-1, R2: Iamdependingonyou 7-2, R3: Mister Patapsco 30-1 +1 more

Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 44d back)

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 13 here: 1 win, 1 top-3 in 16 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 16k	2nd/12	80	2.4-1	b L	Rail; willing
8/20	DEL	-8.31818f T	OC 16k	4th/10 by hd	73	1.4-1	b L	Rail; gave way 1/8
8/1	DEL	-8.31818f T	OC 16k	2nd/10	79	6.9-1	b L	Rail; speed; sharp

14TicklersJ. Toledo · K. VossToledo · VossC57 74 64▼▼-14@trip 7530-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1457 74 64@trip 75C

Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 74 64

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-39 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer Katharine M Voss 19% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Mendelssohn Adi 30-1, R4: National Law 4-1, R9: Otago 8-1 · Trainer R9: Can Group 6-1

3/6 board here

Turns back in 9 days. Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 14d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	LRL	1m T	Clm 16k b	10th/11 -9¾L	57	34-1	b L	Rank; slow start
9/20	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	10th/11 -11L	74	21-1	b L	Little impact 2p
8/14	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	11th/11 -6¾L	64	7.3-1	b L	Awk brk;off slowly

15FahneeK. Gomez · S. StettiniusGomez · StettiniusC61 78 73▼▼-13@trip 7830-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1361 78 73@trip 78C

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 78 73

Jockey Kevin Gomez 30% career 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Suzanne Stettinius 27% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Zen Dreams 30-1, R4: Union Fleet 20-1 · Trainer R3: Hard Freeze 15-1, this race: Hot Boss 12-1

Kevin Gomez takes over from H A Karamanos in the saddle. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 95).

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Rail; faltered 1/8), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	LRL	1m T	Clm 16k b	9th/11 -2½L	61	20-1	b L	Rail; faltered 1/8
9/20	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	6th/11 -4L	78	16-1	b L	Prompted;little left
9/4	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	4th/9 -2L	73	3.6-1	b L	Prssd 2w;tipd 4-2w;wkn

16Carolina SunJ. Vargas · S. CooneyVargas · CooneyC70 74 74►≡@trip 7515-1<1%► Steady70 74 74 ≡@trip 75C

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–74 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 74 74

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-29 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Susan S Cooney 22% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey this race: Police Woman 30-1, R6: Tasty Time 6-5, R7: Watch Out World 30-1, R8: J C's Boys 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Cool Hard Breeze 6-1, R3: Irish Nunsense 15-1

Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start. Moves up from $12,500 claiming to $16,000 claiming.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 7; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	LRL	1m T	Clm 16k b	3rd/11	70	24-1	b L	Led; weakened late
7/11	CNL	5½f T	frGlnPetty125k	3rd/5 -1¾L	74	35-1	b	6 wide upper; ran on
5/31	LRL	6f T	Alw s	6th/9 -5L	74	54-1	b L	Checked 1/2;no bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #11 Yo Adrian, finished 2nd.

1st2ContraWin$7.60Place$3.40Show$3.00Our #3

2nd11Yo AdrianWin—Place$3.00Show$2.80Our #1

3rd12Hot BossWin—Place—Show$6.40Our #6

4th10Air MasqueOur #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Claiming $16,000

Field

16 runners

Purse

$24,000

Post

2:03 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#11 · 30%

Claiming $16,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.63

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #11 Yo Adrian (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 85 · 73 · 77. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Awards Ceremony at 5-1. Use #2 Contra in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Yo Adrian ran 2nd · Contra won (our #3)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 5th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#11 YO ADRIAN	2nd
#2	#6 AWARDS CEREMONY	5th
#3	#2 CONTRA	1st
#4	#5 PRETTY LAVISH	—
#5	#4 LUPINE	11th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Contra	our #3
2nd	#11 Yo Adrian	our #1
3rd	#12 Hot Boss	our #6
4th	#10 Air Masque	our #7
5th	#6 Awards Ceremony	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #11 YO ADRIAN (5-2) — our number agrees.
#11 YO ADRIAN — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.4%, they've got 19.7%.
#2 CONTRA — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.8%, they've got 15.3%.
#6 AWARDS CEREMONY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.4%, they've got 11.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#11 YO ADRIAN — we make it 25.4%, the morning line works out to 19.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 CONTRA — we make it 19.8%, the morning line works out to 15.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 AWARDS CEREMONY — we make it 16.4%, the morning line works out to 11.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 PRETTY LAVISH (8-1) — our fair 9.4% is above the morning line's 7.7%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Awards Ceremony; pressure from #3 Bonita Diamond, #15 Fahnee; the shape helps #2 Contra, #4 Lupine, #8 Dale's Bluff; and works against #3 Bonita Diamond, #6 Awards Ceremony.

Lead

6Awards Ceremony953Bonita Diamond92

Press

15Fahnee952Contra904Lupine9013Eachpeachpearplum8510Air Masque8314Ticklers72

Stalk

8Dale's Bluff8912Hot Boss73

16Carolina Sun9011Yo Adrian835Pretty Lavish809Granuaile781Thirst For Hope747Police Woman67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Awards Ceremony

Fahnee

Bonita Diamond

Contra

Lupine

Dale's Bluff

Eachpeachpearplum

Air Masque

Hot Boss

Ticklers

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Pretty Lavish

Carolina Sun

Thirst For Hope

Yo Adrian

Police Woman

Granuaile

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 5-6-7-8-9)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.