Pick sheet

Race 83:36 PM Alw 48000n1x

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Sometime, is 34% to win (morning line implies 33%). Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #3, #5.

Top pick #5 Sometime ML 9-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best ★ Best at 6f dirt: 91 ↕ Up and down 65–91 ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89

Jockey L. Briceno · Trainer P. Capuano · KEE 4: 2-0-0 · Dist 9: 3-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 91 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	Won/7	91	1.5-1	b L	Duel2w;cmd3/8;drew off
9/26	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	Won/9	85	2.3-1	b L	4-3w;bid uppr;brsh 1/8
9/5	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	10th/11 -4L	65	22-1	b L	Brk back;not involved

Case: Last out won in the Clm12500b at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 91-85-65. Best at today's distance 91. 3-for-9 at the distance. 2-for-4 at Laurel Park. P. Capuano / L. Briceno.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #3 J C's Boys ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best

Jockey J. Vargas · Trainer W. Bailes · KEE 3: 0-2-1 · Dist 4: 1-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	7f D	OC 40k	2nd/6 by hd	88	3.4-1	b L	Ins;bmp 3/16;valiant
9/4	CNL	6f D	rAlw91500n2l	4th/9 -½L	81	4.3-1	b L	Prsd pc;4p;chase on
7/13	CNL	6f D	rMd40000	Won/6	83	0.4-1	b L	2p;drew off;driving

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC40000 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 88-81-83. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Laurel Park. W. Bailes / J. Vargas.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #1 Overspent ML 6-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 ≡ Steady 75–82 Last out 3rd in the rAlw49040n1x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 82-75-80. Best at today's distance 87. 3-for-9 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Laurel Park. M. Shuman / M. Sanchez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer M. Shuman · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · Dist 9: 3-3-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	7f D	rAlw49040n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	82	3.5-1	L	Bobble brek;rail;weakn
9/17	DEL	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -9L	75	6.2-1	L	No bid; showed little
9/3	CNL	5½f T	rAlw91500n1x	2nd/9	80	5.7-1	L	Clear upper;yielded

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #5 · B #1, #4, #7 · C #6

Angles: #4 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 89 · #5 Last fig 91 at/above par 89

R8 Laurel Park · Allowance · $48,000 purse

3:36 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $48,000 · 6 runners (1 out)3:36 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners (1 out)

Official $48K · Allowance · $48,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1OverspentRan 3rdM. Sanchez · M. ShumanSanchez · ShumanB82 75 80▲+4≡@trip 876-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +482 75 80 ≡@trip 87B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 75–82 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 75 80

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Mark Shuman 25% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: War Ace 4-1, R3: Max Haste 5-1, R5: Awards Ceremony 5-1, R7: Enduring Gold 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse allowance race at LRL. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Bobble brek; rail; weakn last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 2; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 1 here: 26 wins, 67 top-3 in 130 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	7f D	rAlw49040n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	82	3.5-1	L	Bobble brek;rail;weakn
9/17	DEL	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -9L	75	6.2-1	L	No bid; showed little
9/3	CNL	5½f T	rAlw91500n1x	2nd/9	80	5.7-1	L	Clear upper;yielded

2IntogageRan 1stI. Beato · M. SalvaggioBeato · SalvaggioA86 77 84▲+5≡@trip 849-2Fair 6-115%▲ Up +5 · career best86 77 84 ≡@trip 84A

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 77 84

Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mark V Salvaggio 30% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 7 furlongs.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 30d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	7f D	rAlw49040n1x	2nd/7 -1½L	86	4.1-1	L	3-4wd;chased winner
9/18	LRL	6f D	rAlw47040n1x	4th/5 -5L	77	2.6-1	L	Early duel;stead 3-1/2
8/20	DEL	6f D	OC 50k n2l	Won/6	84	0.9-1	L	Stalked;3pth turn;drvn

3J C's BoysRan 2ndJ. Vargas · W. BailesVargas · BailesA88 81 83▲▲+9@trip 832-1Fair 5-231%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best88 81 83@trip 83A2

Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 81 83

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer W Robert Bailes 32% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Police Woman 30-1, R5: Carolina Sun 15-1, R6: Tasty Time 6-5, R7: Watch Out World 30-1 +1 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/4 board here

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at LRL, beaten a head. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 4d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 3 here: 9 wins, 26 top-3 in 49 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	7f D	OC 40k	2nd/6 by hd	88	3.4-1	b L	Ins;bmp 3/16;valiant
9/4	CNL	6f D	rAlw91500n2l	4th/9 -½L	81	4.3-1	b L	Prsd pc;4p;chase on
7/13	CNL	6f D	rMd40000	Won/6	83	0.4-1	b L	2p;drew off;driving

4Long Legged Luis▼Ran 5thR. Rodriguez · M. LopezRodriguez · LopezB80 75 59▲▲+14↕@trip 7520-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best80 75 59 ↕@trip 75B▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 89

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–80 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 59

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 89

Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Mario Roberto Lopez 26% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Tea Rose 6-1, R9: Be Here 30-1

CLASS UP3/5 board here

A step up in company: optional claiming before, allowance today. Best recent figure is 80, well under the 89 par for this level.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	DEL	5½f D	OC 16k	3rd/5 -4L	80	6.4-1	b L	Wide turn; mild rally
9/11	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	Won/5	75	4.2-1	b L	Met outer;duel;driving
8/13	CNL	1m T	Clm 16k n2l	8th/9 -7¾L	59	26-1	b L	Bmpd brk;4-5p;7w upper

5Sometime▲★Ran 4thL. Briceno · P. CapuanoBriceno · CapuanoA91 85 65▲▲+17↕@trip 919-5Fair 2-134%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best91 85 65 ↕@trip 91A▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89★ Best at the trip 911

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 85 65

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 89★ Best at the trip 91

Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Phillip Capuano 37% career 4-for-8 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 26

Also today · Jockey R2: Spice Gal 20-1, R5: Dale's Bluff 20-1, R6: Stroll Trippin 30-1 · Trainer R5: Dale's Bluff 20-1

WON LAST2/4 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 88 for the next best. Figures are climbing: 65, 85, 91 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Duel2w; cmd3/8; drew off.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	Won/7	91	1.5-1	b L	Duel2w;cmd3/8;drew off
9/26	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	Won/9	85	2.3-1	b L	4-3w;bid uppr;brsh 1/8
9/5	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	10th/11 -4L	65	22-1	b L	Brk back;not involved

6The Band Runs onRan 6thT. Lyapustina · E. KjelstrupLyapustina · KjelstrupC77 75 72▲+3≡@trip 7530-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +377 75 72 ≡@trip 75C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–77 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 72

Jockey Tais Lyapustina 28% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Eveline Kjelstrup 14% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Brightshininglight 9-2 · Trainer R7: Brightshininglight 9-2

2nd of 32 at 4F on Aug 26, in :47.60. A 79 is the high figure lately, short of the 89 par.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump start; rail), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 30d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Tais Lyapustina from post 6 here: 5 wins, 18 top-3 in 69 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	7f D	rAlw49040n1x	7th/7 -9½L	77	23-1	b L	Bump start; rail
9/13	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-65	6th/7 -5½L	75	19-1	b L	Stp slw;used ins;wknd
8/6	CNL	6f D	Alw n1x	6th/8 -8L	72	113-1	b L	Trailed ins;no factor

7TartabullJ. Rodriguez · L. RiceRodriguez · RiceB77 85 71►@trip 855-1<1%► Steady77 85 71@trip 85B

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 85 71

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 4-for-43 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cara's Dreamweaver 3-2, R1: Kool Kay 12-1, R5: Pretty Lavish 8-1, R6: Maidstone 10-1 +1 more

CLASS UP3/3 board here

Gets a new rider, Jamie Rodriguez replacing J J Castellano. Drops from optional claiming to allowance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 30d ago)

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Jamie Rodriguez from post 7 here: 33 wins, 82 top-3 in 162 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	BEL	6f D	OC 75k	5th/6 -5L	77	5.0-1	b L	Trailed most
8/21	SAR	6f D	Clm 35k n2lc	2nd/6 -3L	85	5.2-1	b L	Bmp brk;ins-2p;4p1/4
7/11	CNL	7f D	rStrDNaskrB125k	8th/8 -6L	71	2.0-1	b	Tracked3w;bmpd1/8;wknd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #3, #5.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Sometime, finished 4th.

1st2IntogageWin$9.60Place$3.40Show$2.40Our #4

2nd3J C's BoysWin—Place$3.20Show$2.40Our #2

3rd1OverspentWin—Place—Show$3.00Our #3

4th5SometimeOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $48,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$48,000

Post

3:36 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 34%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Sometime (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 91 · 85 · 65. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 J C's Boys at 2-1. Use #1 Overspent in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Intogage won (our #4) · top pick Sometime ran 4th

What worked

✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 2nd, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 SOMETIME	4th
#2	#3 J C'S BOYS	2nd
#3	#1 OVERSPENT	3rd
#4	#2 INTOGAGE	1st
#5	#4 LONG LEGGED LUIS	5th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Intogage	our #4
2nd	#3 J C's Boys	our #2
3rd	#1 Overspent	our #3
4th	#5 Sometime	our #1
5th	#4 Long Legged Luis	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SOMETIME (9-5) — our number agrees.
#5 SOMETIME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.7% to their 28.3%).
#3 J C'S BOYS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (30.3% to their 26.4%).
#2 INTOGAGE — our #4 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.7%, they've got 14.4%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 INTOGAGE — we make it 16.7%, the morning line works out to 14.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 OVERSPENT — we make it 14.8%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #1 Overspent; pressure from #5 Sometime, #3 J C's Boys.

Lead

none

Press

1Overspent925Sometime913J C's Boys90

Stalk

2Intogage886The Band Runs On857Tartabull81

4Long Legged Luis91

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Overspent

Sometime

J C's Boys

Intogage

The Band Runs On

Tartabull

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Long Legged Luis

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