Pick sheet

Race 94:07 PM ROC 1-75

1 1/8 Mi · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Regalo, is 49% to win (morning line implies 45%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Regalo ML 1-1 Fair 1-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 82–86

Jockey S. Russell · Trainer B. Russell · KEE 2: 1-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1⅛m turf 86 · 91 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	CNL	1m T	OC 75k b	4th/6 -½L	84	5.5-1	L	Ins;cued3/16;steady1/8
7/5	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 75k b	5th/8 by hd	86	22-1	L	2p;vied ins upper;fade
5/30	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 55k b	2nd/7	82	6.7-1	L	Bobble break;bid;faded

Case: Last out 4th/6 -½L in the OC75000b at CNL. Last Brisnet figures 84-86-82. Best at today's distance 86. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Laurel Park. B. Russell / S. Russell.

Knock: Off 91 days. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #5 Naptown ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -18 ↕ Up and down 67–89

Jockey J. Vargas · Trainer J. Magana · KEE 5: 2-1-1 · Dist 4: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1⅛m turf 78 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LRL	1m D	OC 40k n2x	3rd/3 -11L	67	2.2-1	L	Outside; faltered
9/27	WO	-9f T	sGrndVallyB150k	6th/6 -12L	77	18-1	L	2-3w; faded
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	4th/6 -6L	89	4.7-1	L	Steered widest;mildly

Case: Last out 3rd in the OC40000n2x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 67-77-89. Best at today's distance 88. 1-for-4 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Laurel Park. J. Magana / J. Vargas.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #7 Can Group ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 · career best ≡ Steady 80–87 Last out 6th/6 -5½L in the OC50000n2x at CNL. Last Brisnet figures 87-80-87. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Laurel Park. K. Voss / M. Chuan. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey M. Chuan · Trainer K. Voss · KEE 3: 0-2-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1⅛m turf 80 · 56 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	6th/6 -5½L	87	5.3-1	L	Lacked response drive
8/14	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 50k n2x	6th/8 -7L	80	4.0-1	L	Taken back ins;no kick
7/12	CNL	1 3/16 T	OC 50k n2x	3rd/8 -3½L	87	7.4-1	L	Angld out;bmpd;rallied

Longshot #1 Omaha Omaha ML 15-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +20 ↕ Up and down 23–88

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer M. Gorham · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n2x	Won/4	85	2.3-1	b L	Tracked outs;all out
9/18	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n2x	2nd/7 -2L	88	3.3-1	b L	Followed; 2nd best
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	4th/7 -2½L	83	9.3-1	b L	4w in hand;mildly late

Case: Last out won in the OC32000n2x at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 85-88-83. M. Gorham / J. Hernandez.

Knock: Never raced at Laurel Park.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #7, #8 · B #1, #5, #9 · C #2, #3, #4, #10

Angles: #9 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #10 Lone speed on early pace

R9 Laurel Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

4:07 PM ET · 1 1/8 Miles Turf · $37,000 · 7 runners (3 out)4:07 PM · 1 1/8m Turf · 7 runners (3 out)

Official $37K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Omaha OmahaLSRan 7thJ. Hernandez · M. GorhamHernandez · GorhamB85 88 83▲▲+20↕15-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +2085 88 83 ↕BLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 23–88 · Last 3 figs 85 88 83

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Julio A Hernandez 38% career 2-for-12 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Michael E Gorham 32% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R2: Runsweetly 2-1

WON LAST3/4 board here

Winner of a 4-horse optional claiming race at DEL last time. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Julio A Hernandez from post 1 here: 8 wins, 31 top-3 in 70 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n2x	Won/4	85	2.3-1	b L	Tracked outs;all out
9/18	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n2x	2nd/7 -2L	88	3.3-1	b L	Followed; 2nd best
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	4th/7 -2½L	83	9.3-1	b L	4w in hand;mildly late

2Crabs N BeerRan 4thJ. Rodriguez · K. BrionRodriguez · BrionC78 77 79►≡@trip 8112-1Fair 15-17%► Steady78 77 79 ≡@trip 81C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–80 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 77 79

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 8-for-55 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Keri Brion 25% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cara's Dreamweaver 3-2, R1: Kool Kay 12-1, R5: Pretty Lavish 8-1, R6: Maidstone 10-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Stretches out from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. Winless in 8 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 25; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Jamie Rodriguez from post 2 here: 27 wins, 84 top-3 in 175 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1m T	ROC 1-65	5th/10 -10L	78	6.8-1	b	Passed tiring rivals
9/11	DEL	1 1/16 T	rLewesH75k	6th/10 -1¾L	77	7.3-1	b	Awaited room;bid;hung
8/1	DEL	-7½f T	sSussexH75k	3rd/7 by hd	79	4.5-1	b	Rail bid; gave way

3Vaya JeffeJ. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorC80 77 73▲+5≡5-1<1%▲ Up +5 · career best80 77 73 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 73–80 · Last 3 figs 80 77 73

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-44 on turf this meet (23%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 4-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, R3: Hard Freeze 15-1, R4: All The Hardways 5-1, R5: Hot Boss 12-1

WON LASTJky 23/118 from post 3

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Drops from allowance to unknown.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 98d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 3 here: 23 wins, 58 top-3 in 118 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	1m D	Alw n1x	Won/4	80	3.3-1	b L	Outside bid;driving
9/18	LRL	1m T	OC 35k	Won/9	77	5.6-1	b L	Near rail; driving
8/27	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 30k n2l	2nd/5 -2L	73	8.9-1	b L	Keen; waited; rallied

4Be HereRan 6thR. Rodriguez · J. MaldonadoRodriguez · MaldonadoC59 62 81▼▼-14↕30-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -1459 62 81 ↕C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–81 · Last 3 figs 59 62 81

Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Jonathan Maldonado 25% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Tea Rose 6-1, R8: Long Legged Luis 20-1 · Trainer this race: Seeking Unity 10-1

Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and unknown now. Figures have slipped: 81, 62, 59 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brief foot 5wd; faded), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	DEL	1m D	Clm 12k	4th/4 -14L	59	5.8-1	b L	Brief foot 5wd; faded
8/29	CNL	7½f D	Clm 10k b	5th/8 -13L	62	3.7-1	b L	Off slow; improved
8/14	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 16k	7th/9 -7¾L	81	40-1	b L	Ins;3-5p far; no rally

5NaptownRan 3rdJ. Vargas · J. MaganaVargas · MaganaB67 77 89▼▼-18↕@trip 789-2Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -1867 77 89 ↕@trip 78B2

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–89 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 77 89

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-29 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose J Magana 23% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Police Woman 30-1, R5: Carolina Sun 15-1, R6: Tasty Time 6-5, R7: Watch Out World 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Margaret P 5-1, R4: Union Fleet 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 89 to 77 to 67. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Outside; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Aug 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 5 here: 3 wins, 22 top-3 in 52 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LRL	1m D	OC 40k n2x	3rd/3 -11L	67	2.2-1	L	Outside; faltered
9/27	WO	-9f T	sGrndVallyB150k	6th/6 -12L	77	18-1	L	2-3w; faded
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	4th/6 -6L	89	4.7-1	L	Steered widest;mildly

6RegaloRan 1stS. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA84 86 82►≡@trip 861-1Fair 1-149%► Steady84 86 82 ≡@trip 86A1

Card model 49% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 86 82

Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-21 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-30 on turf this meet (37%), #1 of 34 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Fancy Gentleman 9-2, R5: Yo Adrian 5-2, R7: Biscuitwiththeboss 9-5 · Trainer R5: Yo Adrian 5-2, R7: Biscuitwiththeboss 9-5

60D LAYOFF3/6 board here

Back after 91 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Was running in optional claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 18d back

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 6 here: 25 wins, 63 top-3 in 117 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	CNL	1m T	OC 75k b	4th/6 -½L	84	5.5-1	L	Ins;cued3/16;steady1/8
7/5	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 75k b	5th/8 by hd	86	22-1	L	2p;vied ins upper;fade
5/30	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 55k b	2nd/7	82	6.7-1	L	Bobble break;bid;faded

7Can GroupRan 2ndM. Chuan · K. VossChuan · VossA87 80 87▲+3≡@trip 806-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +3 · career best87 80 87 ≡@trip 80A3

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 80–87 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 80 87

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Katharine M Voss 19% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Darrens Delight 15-1, R3: Coach Michael 30-1, R4: Winston Wolf 15-1, R6: Share Success 5-2 · Trainer R5: Ticklers 30-1

2/3 board here

Changes barns, from Jamie Ness to Katharine M Voss. A big drop, optional claiming to unknown, and worth asking why.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 7 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 27 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	6th/6 -5½L	87	5.3-1	L	Lacked response drive
8/14	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 50k n2x	6th/8 -7L	80	4.0-1	L	Taken back ins;no kick
7/12	CNL	1 3/16 T	OC 50k n2x	3rd/8 -3½L	87	7.4-1	L	Angld out;bmpd;rallied

8MasakadoD. Centeno · R. SillamanCenteno · SillamanA89 87 86▲▲+9↕8-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +989 87 86 ↕A

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–89 · Last 3 figs 89 87 86

Jockey D E Centeno 35% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Richard P Sillaman 33% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R1: Lucky Esther 7-2

5/5 board here

Switches from dirt to turf. Goes 1 1/8 miles after running a mile last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 112d back)

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (3 wins)

RECORD D E Centeno from post 8 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 30 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	DEL	1m D	OC 15k	2nd/7	89	3.5-1	b L	Dueled; out finished
9/12	DEL	1 1/16 D	Alw s	3rd/9 -5L	87	13-1	b L	Checked start; closed
8/20	CNL	1m D	rOC20000n1x	Won/6 by hd	86	6.4-1	b L	Prompt;duel str;dug in

9Otago▼Ran 5thJ. Toledo · L. GaudetToledo · GaudetB92 91 76▲▲+11@trip 768-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 91 76@trip 76B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 91 76

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-39 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer Lacey Gaudet 30% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mendelssohn Adi 30-1, R4: National Law 4-1, R5: Ticklers 30-1 · Trainer R4: Rampagius 9-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 89 for the next best. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp'd st; rail; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 15 (4F in :48.80), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 9 here: 13 wins, 32 top-3 in 76 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LRL	1m D	ROC 1-75	4th/7 -3L	92	2.4-1	L	Bmp'd st;rail;faltered
9/25	LRL	1 1/16 D	ROC 1-75	3rd/8	91	5.3-1	L	Bid 4deep;duel;sttbrn
8/14	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 50k n2xc	8th/8 -6½L	76	16-1	L	Rated2w;3p far;tired

10Seeking Unity▲E. Rosario · J. MaldonadoRosario · MaldonadoC82 83 87►≡10-1<1%► Steady82 83 87 ≡C▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–87 · Last 3 figs 82 83 87

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Jonathan Maldonado 25% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: My Dear Antonia 5-2, R6: Country Economics 6-1 · Trainer this race: Be Here 30-1

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at DEL, beaten a head. Carries 117 pounds, 7 less than last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 124d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 10k	2nd/6 by hd	82	1.4-1	L	Dueled; 2nd best
9/24	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 10k	Won/6	83	3.8-1	L	Bmp brk;4p2nd;kick clr
9/12	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k n1yc	Won/8	87	0.8-1	L	Inched away; best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Regalo, won.

1st6RegaloWin$3.60Place$2.60Show$2.10Our #1

2nd7Can GroupWin—Place$3.80Show$2.40Our #3

3rd5NaptownWin—Place—Show$2.40Our #2

4th2Crabs N BeerOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

10 runners

Purse

$37,000

Post

4:07 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 49%

Claiming $30,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 105.81

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Regalo (early speed, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 84 · 86 · 82. Backup is #5 Naptown at 9-2. Use #7 Can Group in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Regalo won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 REGALO	1st
#2	#5 NAPTOWN	3rd
#3	#7 CAN GROUP	2nd
#4	#9 OTAGO	5th
#5	#1 OMAHA OMAHA	7th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Regalo	our #1
2nd	#7 Can Group	our #3
3rd	#5 Naptown	our #2
4th	#2 Crabs N Beer	our #6
5th	#9 Otago	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 REGALO (1-1) — our number agrees.
#6 REGALO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (44.8% to their 33.9%).
#5 NAPTOWN — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.6%, they've got 12.3%.
#7 CAN GROUP — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 12.2%, the board 9.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 NAPTOWN — we make it 16.6%, the morning line works out to 12.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 OMAHA OMAHA (15-1) — our fair 6.3% is above the morning line's 4.2%; supported by: top barn (32%) + jockey (38%) at 15-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Vaya Jeffe; pressure from #6 Regalo, #8 Masakado; the shape helps #2 Crabs N Beer, #5 Naptown, #8 Masakado; and works against #3 Vaya Jeffe, #6 Regalo.

Lead

3Vaya Jeffe816Regalo79

Press

8Masakado8410Seeking Unity795Naptown70

Stalk

2Crabs N Beer71

7Can Group819Otago724Be Here701Omaha Omaha66

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Masakado

Vaya Jeffe

Regalo

Seeking Unity

Crabs N Beer

Naptown

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Otago

Omaha Omaha

Be Here

Can Group

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

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