Pick sheet

Race 41:33 PM ROC 1-75

7F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Majorca, is 31% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #7, #8.

Top pick #1 Majorca ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 88–90 1st-time blinkers

Jockey A. Cruz · Trainer D. Eubanks · KEE 3: 3-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 7f dirt 91 · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	DEL	1 1/16 D	rGvrnorDayH100k	5th/6 -4L	90	3.9-1	L	Set pace;flattened out
8/22	CNL	1⅛m D	Handicap	6th/8 -11L	89	4.8-1	L	Vied btwn;weakened
7/30	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 62k b	Won/3	89	0.9-1	L	Off rail; driving

Case: Last out 5th/6 -4L in the rGvrnorDayH100k at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 90-89-89. Best at today's distance 91. 1-for-1 at the distance. 3-for-3 at Laurel Park. D. Eubanks / A. Cruz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 National Law ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -7 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (85 vs 97) Blinkers on

Jockey J. Toledo · Trainer J. Duarte Jr. · KEE 3: 1-1-1 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 50k b	4th/6 -4¼L	85	2.4-1	L	Stalked wide; yielded
5/2	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 55k b	3rd/8 -2L	97	3.2-1	L	Rail; flattened out
1/17	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 40k n2x	2nd/7 -3L	98	2.4-1	L	Rank st;bmp;pinch;ins

Case: Last out 4th/6 -4¼L in the OC50000b at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 85-97-98. 1-for-3 at Laurel Park. J. Duarte Jr. / J. Toledo.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Lost My Shoe ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best Last out 3rd in the Alw46500n1x at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 93-85-80. 1-for-2 at Laurel Park. J. Worsley / P. Luna. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Jockey P. Luna · Trainer J. Worsley · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · 18 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DEL	5½f D	Alw n1x	3rd/5 -1½L	93	3.1-1	b L	2p1/4;tip5p1/8;kept on
9/11	DEL	6f D	OC 25k	Won/8	85	2.3-1	b L	Pinched back start
4/26	LRL	6f D	rAlw47040n1x	5th/5 -7½L	80	2.7-1	L	Urge 3/8;weakened

★ Distance horse: #3 Union Fleet (20-1) has the best figure in the field at 7f dirt: 92 from 2 tries, record at the distance 11: 4-1-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #6 · B #4, #7, #8 · C #2, #3

Angles: #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (85 vs 97) · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R4 Laurel Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

1:33 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $37,000 · 8 runners1:33 PM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $37K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Union Fleet (20-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 92 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1MajorcaRan 1stA. Cruz · D. EubanksCruz · EubanksA90 89 89►≡@trip 915-2Fair 5-230%► Steady90 89 89 ≡@trip 91A1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 88–90 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 89 89

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Daniel G Eubanks 28% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Smokeshow 4-1, R1: Dani Girl 4-1, R2: Iamdependingonyou 7-2, R3: Mister Patapsco 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Smokeshow 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

Runs for $37,000 today after a $100,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (3 wins)

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 1 here: 21 wins, 67 top-3 in 158 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	DEL	1 1/16 D	rGvrnorDayH100k	5th/6 -4L	90	3.9-1	L	Set pace;flattened out
8/22	CNL	1⅛m D	Handicap	6th/8 -11L	89	4.8-1	L	Vied btwn;weakened
7/30	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 62k b	Won/3	89	0.9-1	L	Off rail; driving

2Winston WolfRan 7thM. Chuan · M. McGoeyChuan · McGoeyC85 67 80▲▲+1015-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1085 67 80C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Last 3 figs 85 67 80

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Monica McGoey 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Darrens Delight 15-1, R3: Coach Michael 30-1, R6: Share Success 5-2, R9: Can Group 6-1 · Trainer R6: Elsie's Smile 5-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPJky 10/44 from post 2

Back to 7 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, unknown today.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swung 5wd; rallied), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 10d back)

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 2 here: 10 wins, 20 top-3 in 44 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	CNL	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k	2nd/8 -4L	85	5.7-1	L	Swung 5wd; rallied
3/1	GP	1 1/16 T	Clm 35k	8th/8 -18L	67	74-1	L	Checked start; trailed
9/17	CD	1m D	Clm 16k c	5th/9 -3L	80	11-1	L	Stalk 2w;chs btw;nobid

3Union Fleet★Ran 4thK. Gomez · J. MaganaGomez · MaganaC83 76 69▲+6@trip 9220-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +683 76 69@trip 92C★ Best at the trip 92

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 76 69

★ Best at the trip 92

Jockey Kevin Gomez 30% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose J Magana 23% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Zen Dreams 30-1, R5: Fahnee 30-1 · Trainer R2: Margaret P 5-1, R9: Naptown 9-2

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKJky 7/50 from post 3

Has moved up each time out, 69 to 76 to 83. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Ins; shift 5wd 1/4; fade. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (4F in :47.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gomez from post 3 here: 7 wins, 22 top-3 in 50 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	1 1/16 D	ROC 1-75	7th/8 -5L	83	18-1	b L	Ins;shift 5wd 1/4;fade
9/11	LRL	1m D	OC 55k b	7th/8 -12L	76	41-1	b L	Rail; no factor
8/22	CNL	7f D	Handicap	6th/6 -9½L	69	23-1	b L	Last away;outrun rail

4Don't Wait UpRan 3rdH. Karamanos · A. AllenKaramanos · AllenB85 79 95►@trip 886-1Fair 12-18%► Steady85 79 95@trip 88B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 79 95

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Rock Talk 20-1, R5: Contra 7-2 · Trainer R1: Hysterics 30-1, R1: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, this race: All The Hardways 5-1

CLASS DROP7/9 board here

2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Last out was 4th, 3¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse race at LRL.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 4 here: 17 wins, 37 top-3 in 91 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-75	4th/5 -3¾L	85	3.1-1	b L	Off duel 3-4wd;mildly
7/26	CNL	1m D	Clm 40k	5th/7 -4½L	79	3.1-1	b L	Bmp st;clip heels3p1/4
6/14	LRL	6f D	OC 40k n2x	2nd/8	95	7.6-1	b L	Outs bid;duel;stbbrnly

5National Law▼Ran 6thJ. Toledo · J. Duarte Jr.Toledo · Duarte Jr.A85 97 98▼-74-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -785 97 98A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (85 vs 97)2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 85 97 98

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (85 vs 97)

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Mendelssohn Adi 30-1, R5: Ticklers 30-1, R9: Otago 8-1

3/3 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 95 next best. Figures have slipped: 98, 97, 85 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 6 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 5 here: 28 wins, 73 top-3 in 172 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 50k b	4th/6 -4¼L	85	2.4-1	L	Stalked wide; yielded
5/2	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 55k b	3rd/8 -2L	97	3.2-1	L	Rail; flattened out
1/17	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 40k n2x	2nd/7 -3L	98	2.4-1	L	Rank st;bmp;pinch;ins

6Lost My ShoeRan 8thP. Luna · J. WorsleyLuna · WorsleyA93 85 80▲▲+99-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best93 85 80A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 93 85 80

Jockey Paul A Luna 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer John E Worsley 14% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Panchita 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in a 5-horse allowance race at DEL. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DEL	5½f D	Alw n1x	3rd/5 -1½L	93	3.1-1	b L	2p1/4;tip5p1/8;kept on
9/11	DEL	6f D	OC 25k	Won/8	85	2.3-1	b L	Pinched back start
4/26	LRL	6f D	rAlw47040n1x	5th/5 -7½L	80	2.7-1	L	Urge 3/8;weakened

7RampagiusRan 5thC. Lopez · L. GaudetLopez · GaudetB78 89 76▼-7@trip 919-2Fair 7-113%▼ Down -778 89 76@trip 91B

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 89 76

Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Lacey Gaudet 30% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Irish Nunsense 15-1 · Trainer R9: Otago 8-1

CLASS DROP

A 49-day gap since its last race. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Urged along 4-5w; churn), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 7 here: 13 wins, 38 top-3 in 94 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-65	5th/7 -6½L	78	2.0-1	b L	Urged along 4-5w;churn
6/14	LRL	6f D	OC 40k n2x	4th/8 -4¼L	89	1.8-1	b L	Shuffl 1/2;angl 4w;bid
4/17	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 40k n2x	4th/8 -4¾L	76	2.9-1	b L	Drft bck;ins;angl;bid

8All the Hardways▲Ran 2ndJ. Barbosa · A. AllenBarbosa · AllenB86 84 72▲+4@trip 815-1Fair 8-112%▲ Up +486 84 72@trip 81B▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 84 72

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, R3: Hard Freeze 15-1, R5: Hot Boss 12-1, R9: Vaya Jeffe 5-1 · Trainer R1: Hysterics 30-1, R1: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, this race: Don't Wait Up 6-1

5/8 board here

3rd last time, a head back, in a field of 5. Figures are climbing: 72, 84, 86 over its last three.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 8 here: 10 wins, 30 top-3 in 81 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-75	3rd/5 by hd	86	4.4-1	b L	Ins pair; grudgingly
9/20	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-75	3rd/6 -1½L	84	4.1-1	b L	Cut corner;held show
9/5	TIM	-6½f D	OC 30k n2x	Won/6	72	3.7-1	b L	Brk in;bmp;duel outs

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #7, #8.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Majorca, won.

1st1MajorcaWin$5.20Place$3.60Show$2.80Our #1

2nd8All The HardwaysWin—Place$6.20Show$3.60Our #5

3rd4Don't Wait UpWin—Place—Show$3.20Our #6

4th3Union FleetOur #8

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

8 runners

Purse

$37,000

Post

1:33 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 30%

Claiming $30,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.95

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Majorca (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 90 · 89 · 89. Backup is #5 National Law at 4-1. Use #6 Lost My Shoe in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Majorca won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, 6th, 8th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 MAJORCA	1st
#2	#5 NATIONAL LAW	6th
#3	#6 LOST MY SHOE	8th
#4	#7 RAMPAGIUS	5th
#5	#8 ALL THE HARDWAYS	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#1 Majorca	our #1
2nd	#8 All the Hardways	our #5
3rd	#4 Don't Wait Up	our #6
4th	#3 Union Fleet	our #8
5th	#7 Rampagius	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 MAJORCA (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 MAJORCA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.4% to their 22.5%).
#5 NATIONAL LAW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 15.8%).
#6 LOST MY SHOE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #8 All The Hardways; pressure from #7 Rampagius, #1 Majorca.

Lead

none

Press

8All The Hardways947Rampagius831Majorca78

Stalk

6Lost My Shoe875National Law854Don't Wait Up832Winston Wolf72

3Union Fleet77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

All The Hardways

Lost My Shoe

National Law

Don't Wait Up

Rampagius

Majorca

Winston Wolf

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Union Fleet

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Bet types

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