Pick sheet

Race 112:05 PM Clm 16000n2l

1 1/16 Mi · Turf · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, Cara's Dreamweaver, is 39% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Cara's Dreamweaver ML 3-2 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 73–77

Jockey J. Rodriguez · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 4: 0-1-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	3rd/12 -3½L	73	2.7-1	b L	Pinch start;6w;closed
9/14	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	4th/9 -5½L	75	2.0-1	b L	Stead into first turn
8/29	DEL	-8½f T	OC 16k	2nd/9 by nk	77	5.8-1	b L	6w bid; finished well

Case: Last out 3rd in the fClm16000n2l at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 73-75-77. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Laurel Park. J. Ness / J. Rodriguez.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #2 Smokeshow ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ► Steady 1st-time blinkers

Jockey A. Cruz · Trainer D. Eubanks · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	2nd/12	73	28-1	L	Rail;driftd;grudgingly
9/16	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 16k	12th/12 -8¼L	65	6.6-1	L	Even effort; outrun
8/20	DEL	-8.31818f T	OC 16k	4th/10 -¾L	75	11-1	L	4wd; mild rally

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm16000n2l at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 73-65-75. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Laurel Park. D. Eubanks / A. Cruz.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #3 Lucky Esther ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 · career best ≡ Steady 64–72 Last out 5th/11 by hd in the fOC12500c at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 72-64-72. Best at today's distance 72. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Laurel Park. R. Sillaman / C. Marquez. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey C. Marquez · Trainer R. Sillaman · KEE 3: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 72 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 12k c	5th/11 by hd	72	23-1	L	Rebid ins;duel;stbbrn
6/18	DEL	1m T	OC 16k	3rd/8 -6½L	64	6.2-1	L	3wd turns; no rally
3/15	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k n2l	3rd/6 -2L	72	17-1	L	2-3wd; ran on

Longshot #5 Darrens Delight ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #4 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 41–72

Jockey M. Chuan · Trainer A. Sarson · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 66 · 67 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/26	PEN	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	7th/8 -6L	66	80-1	b L	Stalked 2-3p; faded
7/24	PEN	1m D	OC 16k	4th/5 -6L	41	5.5-1	b L	Trkd2nd;wknd;empty
6/25	PEN	1 1/16 T	MCL 16k	Won/5	72	20-1	b L	Bumped; led; clear

Case: Last out 7th/8 -6L in the fAlw44400n1x at PEN. Last Brisnet figures 66-41-72. Best at today's distance 66. 1-for-2 at the distance. A. Sarson / M. Chuan.

Knock: Off 67 days. Never raced at Laurel Park.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #3 · B #9, #12, #14 · C #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #10, #11, #13, #15, #16

Angles: #6 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #7 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #10 Lone speed on early pace · #16 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

R1 Laurel Park · Claiming $16,000

12:05 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $24,000 · 11 runners (5 out)12:05 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 11 runners (5 out)

Official $24K · Claiming $16,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Cara's DreamweaverRan 1stJ. Rodriguez · J. NessRodriguez · NessA73 75 77►≡3-2Fair 8-538%► Steady73 75 77 ≡A1

Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–77 · Last 3 figs 73 75 77

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 8-for-55 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 8-for-33 on turf this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey this race: Kool Kay 12-1, R5: Pretty Lavish 8-1, R6: Maidstone 10-1, R8: Tartabull 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Share Success 5-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 77. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pinch start; 6w; closed. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 155d ago

RECORD Jamie Rodriguez from post 1 here: 67 wins, 156 top-3 in 313 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	3rd/12 -3½L	73	2.7-1	b L	Pinch start;6w;closed
9/14	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	4th/9 -5½L	75	2.0-1	b L	Stead into first turn
8/29	DEL	-8½f T	OC 16k	2nd/9 by nk	77	5.8-1	b L	6w bid; finished well

2SmokeshowRan 2ndA. Cruz · D. EubanksCruz · EubanksA73 65 75►4-1Fair 9-218%► Steady73 65 75A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 73 65 75

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 4-for-44 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Daniel G Eubanks 28% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey this race: Dani Girl 4-1, R2: Iamdependingonyou 7-2, R3: Mister Patapsco 30-1, R4: Majorca 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R4: Majorca 5-2

Finished 2nd last time in a 12-horse $16,000 claiming race at LRL. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 92).

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 115d ago

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 2 here: 28 wins, 93 top-3 in 203 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	2nd/12	73	28-1	L	Rail;driftd;grudgingly
9/16	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 16k	12th/12 -8¼L	65	6.6-1	L	Even effort; outrun
8/20	DEL	-8.31818f T	OC 16k	4th/10 -¾L	75	11-1	L	4wd; mild rally

3Lucky EstherRan 6thC. Marquez · R. SillamanMarquez · SillamanA72 64 72▲+3≡@trip 727-2Fair 6-115%▲ Up +3 · career best72 64 72 ≡@trip 72A3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 64–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 64 72

Jockey Charlie Marquez 29% career 4-for-23 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Richard P Sillaman 33% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Air Masque 20-1 · Trainer R9: Masakado 8-1

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Michael R Matz had it last time, Richard P Sillaman now. A step up in company: optional claiming before, $16,000 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 32d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Charlie Marquez from post 3 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 24 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 12k c	5th/11 by hd	72	23-1	L	Rebid ins;duel;stbbrn
6/18	DEL	1m T	OC 16k	3rd/8 -6½L	64	6.2-1	L	3wd turns; no rally
3/15	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k n2l	3rd/6 -2L	72	17-1	L	2-3wd; ran on

4Blazing BridgetteRan 11thJ. Rocco Jr. · S. WhiteRocco Jr. · WhiteC58 56 77▼▼-11↕@trip 7620-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1158 56 77 ↕@trip 76C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–77 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 56 77
Jockey J S Jr Rocco 2-for-23 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Sarah White 22% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Thirst For Hope 30-1
A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 77, with 76 next best.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 10d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LRL 5½f T Clm 16k n2l 8th/10 -10L 58 32-1 L Outrun
9/18 LRL 1m D Clm 12k n2lc 6th/7 -11L 56 1.4-1 L 4w;bid 3-deep;tired
9/1 PRX 1 1/16 D MCL 16k Won/6 77 0.6-1 L Repelled rival; clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	8th/10 -10L	58	32-1	L	Outrun
9/18	LRL	1m D	Clm 12k n2lc	6th/7 -11L	56	1.4-1	L	4w;bid 3-deep;tired
9/1	PRX	1 1/16 D	MCL 16k	Won/6	77	0.6-1	L	Repelled rival; clear

5Darrens DelightLSRan 3rdM. Chuan · A. SarsonChuan · SarsonC66 41 72▲▲+9↕@trip 6615-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +966 41 72 ↕@trip 66CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–72 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 41 72

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Alisa B Sarson 16% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Coach Michael 30-1, R4: Winston Wolf 15-1, R6: Share Success 5-2, R9: Can Group 6-1 · Trainer this race: Kool Kay 12-1

60D LAYOFF

Drops from allowance to $16,000 claiming. Off 67 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 5 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 45 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/26	PEN	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	7th/8 -6L	66	80-1	b L	Stalked 2-3p; faded
7/24	PEN	1m D	OC 16k	4th/5 -6L	41	5.5-1	b L	Trkd2nd;wknd;empty
6/25	PEN	1 1/16 T	MCL 16k	Won/5	72	20-1	b L	Bumped; led; clear

6Quality Swag▼Ran 7thV. Cheminaud · P. DeCheminaud · DeC66 69 69►≡@trip 6215-1Fair 20-14%► Steady66 69 69 ≡@trip 62C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–69 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 69 69

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 3-for-22 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De 2-for-20 on turf this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Friendship Sloop 12-1, R5: Lupine 12-1 · Trainer this race: Dani Girl 4-1

5/8 board here

Worked 4F in :48.80 on Aug 16, 2nd of 69 at the distance. Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and $16,000 claiming now.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 7wd upper; no rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 77d ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	8th/12 -8½L	66	10-1	b L	7wd upper;no rally
9/13	LRL	1m T	MCL 16k	Won/9 by 1¼	69	3.0-1	b L	Up between horses
8/29	DEL	-8f T	MCL 20k	2nd/9 -4L	69	4.5-1	b L	Closed; up for place

7Mendelssohn Adi▼Ran 10thJ. Toledo · C. MancillaToledo · MancillaC52 62 59►↕@trip 3730-1Fair 30-13%► Steady52 62 59 ↕@trip 37C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–62 · Best fig at today's trip 37 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 62 59

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-39 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer Carlos A Mancilla 27% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: National Law 4-1, R5: Ticklers 30-1, R9: Otago 8-1 · Trainer R2: My Dear Antonia 5-2

Switches from dirt to turf. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $16,000 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 7 here: 25 wins, 61 top-3 in 154 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1m D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/6 -8L	52	5.2-1	b L	3-4w;rddn 1/2;fade
9/4	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	3rd/6 -2½L	62	4.5-1	b L	Inside; weakened
8/28	TIM	1 1/16 D	MCL 5k	Won/6	59	6.6-1	b L	Ins;rddn 1/4;drft;drvg

8Rock TalkH. Karamanos · M. EpplerKaramanos · EpplerC73 63 73▲▲+8@trip 5020-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best73 63 73@trip 50C

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 50 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 63 73

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 6-for-46 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Mary E Eppler 21% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Don't Wait Up 6-1, R5: Contra 7-2

0/4 board here

Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. 7th last time, 6¾ lengths back, in a field of 12.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 8 here: 10 wins, 30 top-3 in 72 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LRL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	7th/12 -6¾L	73	59-1	b L	Rail; no factor
8/21	CNL	5f T	frClm16000n2l	6th/7 -10L	63	18-1	b L	Rail trip; no bid
8/2	CNL	5½f T	frMd16000	Won/7 by 2¾	73	4.5-1	b L	2p;5w upper;closed;up

9PanchitaP. Luna · P. NazarioLuna · NazarioB72 52 61▲▲+1510-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1572 52 61B

Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · Last 3 figs 72 52 61

Jockey Paul A Luna 34% career · Trainer Pedro Nazario 21% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Lost My Shoe 9-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLECLASS UP

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Picks up 7 pounds from its last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 8; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	DEL	1m D	OC 16k	2nd/7 -6½L	72	17-1	b L	8wd bid; carried out
9/12	DEL	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	10th/13 -6½L	52	11-1	b L	Vied to turn; stopped
8/28	DEL	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/8 by hd	61	1.9-1	b L	Swung wide;outfinished

10God I Need a Favor▲Ran 9thM. Burnham · L. AlbertBurnham · AlbertC72 57 69▲+720-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +772 57 69C▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 72 57 69

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Matilda Burnham 21% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Linda L Albert 25% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Granuaile 20-1, R6: Christy My Love 20-1

CLASS DROP4/6 board here

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 43d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Matilda Burnham from post 10 here: 1 win, 2 top-3 in 15 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/7 -5L	72	4.5-1	b L	Rate;4wd move;willing
1/10	LRL	1m D	OC 62k n1x	5th/7 -14L	57	15-1	b L	Bump start; rail
12/7	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 62k n1x	3rd/6 -5½L	69	7.2-1	b	3-4p; faded; held show

11HystericsRan 8thR. Mena · A. AllenMena · AllenC65 55 65►@trip 7530-1Fair 99-11%► Steady65 55 65@trip 75C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 55 65

Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 3-for-20 on turf this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Runsweetly 2-1 · Trainer this race: Hay Grace Brennan 12-1, R4: Don't Wait Up 6-1, R4: All The Hardways 5-1

Beaten 11 lengths for 9th in a 12-horse $16,000 claiming race at LRL. Dropped in well back early last out, 11th of 12 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 4d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Raul E Mena from post 11 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 15 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	9th/12 -11L	65	68-1	b L	Outrun; 9wd 3/16
9/19	LRL	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k n2l	7th/8 -10L	55	17-1	b L	4-3wd turns;no bid
8/15	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k n2l	8th/12 -5¾L	65	22-1	b L	2-3p;4w upper;no rally

12Hay Grace BrennanRan 5thJ. Barbosa · A. AllenBarbosa · AllenB64 67 76▼▼-9@trip 7512-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -964 67 76@trip 75B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 67 76

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-44 on turf this meet (23%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 3-for-20 on turf this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Hard Freeze 15-1, R4: All The Hardways 5-1, R5: Hot Boss 12-1, R9: Vaya Jeffe 5-1 · Trainer this race: Hysterics 30-1, R4: Don't Wait Up 6-1, R4: All The Hardways 5-1

0/3 board here

Figures have slipped: 76, 67, 64 over its last three. 2nd of 8 at 4F on Jun 23, in :50.40.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled start; rail), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 4d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 12 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 24 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	10th/12 -3¾L	64	8.9-1	b L	Stumbled start; rail
8/30	CNL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	7th/7 -7L	67	43-1	b L	Brk out;bmp;thru early
7/25	CNL	1m T	frMd16000	Won/10	76	1.2-1	b L	2p;bid4w;clear;driving

13Zen DreamsK. Gomez · A. Aguirre Jr.Gomez · Aguirre Jr.C53 58 61▼▼-11@trip 6530-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1153 58 61@trip 65C

Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 58 61

Jockey Kevin Gomez 30% career 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony Jr Aguirre 22% career 2-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Union Fleet 20-1, R5: Fahnee 30-1 · Trainer R7: Chimney Sweep 6-1

CLASS DROP

Trending the wrong way on speed, 61 to 58 to 53. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $16,000 claiming.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 63 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1m D	Clm 7k n2l	2nd/6 -10L	53	0.9-1	b L	4-3w;rddn 1/2;work btw
9/18	LRL	1m D	Clm 12k n2l	5th/7 -12L	58	11-1	b L	Ins;gave way upper
9/5	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 16k n2l	6th/7 -10L	61	9.4-1	b L	Bore out start;outrun

14Cool Hard BreezeRan 4thJ. Ruiz · S. CooneyRuiz · CooneyB67 59 72►@trip 726-1Fair 20-15%► Steady67 59 72@trip 72B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 59 72

Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 8-for-45 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Susan S Cooney 22% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Daring Grace 7-2, R7: Big Bolton 4-1 · Trainer R3: Irish Nunsense 15-1, R5: Carolina Sun 15-1

Jorge Ruiz takes over from Jevian Toledo in the saddle. A 74 top number against a 75 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 128 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	6th/12 -7L	67	5.4-1	b L	In tight start; rail
9/19	LRL	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k n2l	3rd/8 -13L	59	3.1-1	b L	Swung 5wd upper;rally
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	frMd16000	Won/10 by 2	72	1.1-1	b L	Tracked rail;keen; up

15Kool KayJ. Rodriguez · A. SarsonRodriguez · SarsonC71 72 65▲+7@trip 6112-1<1%▲ Up +771 72 65@trip 61C

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 72 65

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 8-for-55 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Alisa B Sarson 16% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey this race: Cara's Dreamweaver 3-2, R5: Pretty Lavish 8-1, R6: Maidstone 10-1, R8: Tartabull 5-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Darrens Delight 15-1

Raced in mid-pack early, 10th at the first call. Last out was 4th, 5¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse $16,000 claiming race at LRL.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Fanned 7wd; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 82d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1⅛m T	Clm 16k n2l	4th/12 -5¼L	71	10-1	b L	Fanned 7wd;rallied
9/13	LRL	1m T	MCL 16k	Won/9 by ½	72	49-1	b L	Rated;6w 3/16;drvng
8/29	DEL	-8f T	MCL 20k	5th/9 -5½L	65	20-1	b L	Inside trip; closed

16Dani Girl▼A. Cruz · P. DeCruz · DeC69 28 57▲▲+22↕4-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best69 28 57 ↕C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 28–69 · Last 3 figs 69 28 57

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 4-for-44 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De 2-for-20 on turf this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey this race: Smokeshow 4-1, R2: Iamdependingonyou 7-2, R3: Mister Patapsco 30-1, R4: Majorca 5-2 +1 more · Trainer this race: Quality Swag 15-1

CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

A 53-day gap since its last race. Won last out in a 10-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at IND.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	IND	1m T	MCL 12k	Won/10	69	1.9-1	b L	Awk;2p;bid1/2;dueled
4/19	KEE	6f D	MCL 30k	12th/12 -19L	28	9.6-1	b L	Unruly beh gt;cave btw
12/19	TP	1m D	MCL 50k	10th/12 -4¼L	57	4.2-1	b L	Led to 1/4p empty str

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Cara's Dreamweaver, won.

1st1Cara's DreamweaverWin$4.00Place$2.80Show$2.40Our #1

2nd2SmokeshowWin—Place$4.00Show$3.00Our #2

3rd5Darrens DelightWin—Place—Show$4.00Our #4

4th14Cool Hard BreezeOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Claiming $16,000

Field

16 runners

Purse

$24,000

Post

12:05 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 38%

Claiming $16,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.22

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Cara's Dreamweaver (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-2). Recent figures: 73 · 75 · 77. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Smokeshow at 4-1. Use #3 Lucky Esther in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Cara's Dreamweaver won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER	1st
#2	#2 SMOKESHOW	2nd
#3	#3 LUCKY ESTHER	6th
#4	#5 DARRENS DELIGHT	3rd
#5	#14 COOL HARD BREEZE	4th

Actual finish

1st	#1 Cara's Dreamweaver	our #1
2nd	#2 Smokeshow	our #2
3rd	#5 Darrens Delight	our #4
4th	#14 Cool Hard Breeze	our #5
5th	#12 Hay Grace Brennan	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER (3-2) — our number agrees.
#1 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 30.5%, they've got 22.5%.
#2 SMOKESHOW — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.7%, they've got 11.3%.
#3 LUCKY ESTHER — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.9%, they've got 12.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER — we make it 30.5%, the morning line works out to 22.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 SMOKESHOW — we make it 17.7%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#3 LUCKY ESTHER — we make it 16.9%, the morning line works out to 12.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 DARRENS DELIGHT (15-1) — our fair 5.1% is above the morning line's 3.5%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Mendelssohn Adi; pressure from #2 Smokeshow, #5 Darrens Delight; the shape helps #1 Cara's Dreamweaver, #2 Smokeshow, #3 Lucky Esther; and works against #7 Mendelssohn Adi.

Lead

7Mendelssohn Adi80

Press

2Smokeshow925Darrens Delight8416Dani Girl794Blazing Bridgette769Panchita74

Stalk

3Lucky Esther9110God I Need A Favor891Cara's Dreamweaver7212Hay Grace Brennan68

8Rock Talk8213Zen Dreams7114Cool Hard Breeze5715Kool Kay566Quality Swag4711Hysterics45

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Smokeshow

Lucky Esther

God I Need A Favor

Darrens Delight

Mendelssohn Adi

Dani Girl

Blazing Bridgette

Panchita

Cara's Dreamweaver

Hay Grace Brennan

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Zen Dreams

Quality Swag

Hysterics

Cool Hard Breeze

Kool Kay

Rock Talk

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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