Pick sheet

Race 62:34 PM Clm 7500bLate Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Tasty Time, is 44% to win (morning line implies 36%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #8 Tasty Time ML 6-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -9 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 86

Jockey J. Vargas · Trainer K. Cox · KEE 9: 2-2-2 · Dist 8: 2-0-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 86 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	4th/6 -3L	66	1.8-1	b L	Bit closer 3w;flattend
8/30	CNL	6f D	Clm 16k b	3rd/7 by nk	77	6.5-1	b L	4w5/16;slight bothr1/8
7/16	DEL	6f D	OC 16k	3rd/5 -4L	76	3.1-1	b L	Rail;angled;by-faders

Case: Last out 4th/6 -3L in the fClm12500b at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 66-77-76. Best at today's distance 86. 2-for-8 at the distance. 2-for-9 at Laurel Park. K. Cox / J. Vargas.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Share Success ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▲ Up +7 ↕ Up and down 46–71

Jockey M. Chuan · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 4: 1-1-0 · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 69 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/7	68	1.0-1	L	Stlk;bid3/8;game;yield
10/5	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k	6th/8 -15L	46	7.6-1	L	Faded; steadied 3/8
9/5	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 16k n2l	Won/7 by 3	71	5.3-1	L	4wd turns;up late

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm7500b at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 68-46-71. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Laurel Park. J. Ness / M. Chuan.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #1 Maidstone ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -20 ↕ Up and down 41–70 Last out 5th/5 -13L in the fClm5000bc at TIM. Last Brisnet figures 41-54-70. Best at today's distance 75. 2-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Laurel Park. A. MacHado / J. Rodriguez. Knock: Off 64 days.

Jockey J. Rodriguez · Trainer A. MacHado · KEE 4: 1-2-1 · Dist 5: 2-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 64 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k bc	5th/5 -13L	41	1.8-1	L	4wd;gave way; eased
7/31	CT	6½f D	Alw n1x	5th/7 -4¾L	54	11-1	L	Bid btw1/8; no impact
7/10	CT	7f D	Alw n1x	4th/7 by hd	70	9.9-1	L	Vied inside;flattened

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #8 · B #1, #4, #5 · C #3, #7

Angles: #3 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #5 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #7 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 79

R6 Laurel Park · Claiming $7,500

2:34 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $18,000 · 8 runners2:34 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $18K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1MaidstoneRan 2ndJ. Rodriguez · A. MacHadoRodriguez · MacHadoB41 54 70▼▼-20↕@trip 7510-1Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -2041 54 70 ↕@trip 75B3

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–70 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 41 54 70

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 4-for-43 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Antonio Machado 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cara's Dreamweaver 3-2, R1: Kool Kay 12-1, R5: Pretty Lavish 8-1, R8: Tartabull 5-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFF4/4 board here

Antonio Machado takes over the training from Anthony Farrior. 5th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 5.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d back

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Jamie Rodriguez from post 1 here: 67 wins, 156 top-3 in 313 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k bc	5th/5 -13L	41	1.8-1	L	4wd;gave way; eased
7/31	CT	6½f D	Alw n1x	5th/7 -4¾L	54	11-1	L	Bid btw1/8; no impact
7/10	CT	7f D	Alw n1x	4th/7 by hd	70	9.9-1	L	Vied inside;flattened

2Share SuccessRan 3rdM. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessA68 46 71▲+7↕@trip 695-2Fair 3-124%▲ Up +768 46 71 ↕@trip 69A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–71 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 46 71

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career 7-for-38 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Darrens Delight 15-1, R3: Coach Michael 30-1, R4: Winston Wolf 15-1, R9: Can Group 6-1 · Trainer R1: Cara's Dreamweaver 3-2

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKJky 10/44 from post 2

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 79 par. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 7 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 84d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 2 here: 10 wins, 20 top-3 in 44 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/7	68	1.0-1	L	Stlk;bid3/8;game;yield
10/5	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k	6th/8 -15L	46	7.6-1	L	Faded; steadied 3/8
9/5	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 16k n2l	Won/7 by 3	71	5.3-1	L	4wd turns;up late

3Instagrand Girl▼▲Ran 6thG. Rabadan · E. LeivaRabadan · LeivaC60 57 55▲+4≡@trip 5920-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +460 57 55 ≡@trip 59C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 55–60 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 57 55

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Gerardo Rabadan 14% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Eduardo Leiva 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now. A longer trip: 4½ furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Checked1/4; improved), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.40 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k n3l	4th/6 -5L	60	7.4-1	b L	Checked1/4;improved
9/7	TIM	4f D	Clm 8k	6th/6 by nk	57	10-1	b L	Ins;got out;bmp;stdy
8/28	TIM	4f D	Clm 5k b	3rd/6 -½L	55	5.8-1	b L	Prompted winner

4Country Economics▼Ran 7thE. Rosario · J. VazquezRosario · VazquezB72 65 63▲+7≡@trip 726-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +7 · career best72 65 63 ≡@trip 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 63–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 65 63

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Jose Juan Vazquez 30% career

Also today · Jockey R2: My Dear Antonia 5-2, R9: Seeking Unity 10-1

WON LASTJky 0/18 from post 4

Won last out in an 11-horse $8,000 claiming race at DEL. Figures are climbing: 63, 65, 72 over its last three.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 136d ago

RECORD Emanuel Rosario has never won from post 4 here (5 top-3 in 18 rides) · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DEL	5½f D	Clm 8k n2l	Won/11	72	7.1-1	b L	Opened up; best
10/2	DEL	1m D	Clm 8k n2l	3rd/10	65	5.0-1	b L	5-w 1st;trackd 3p;game
9/25	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k n2l	4th/6 -1L	63	2.0-1	b L	Chase;svd gnd;faded

5Christy My Love▼Ran 1stM. Burnham · S. SinghBurnham · SinghB58 50 43▲+6@trip 7320-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +658 50 43@trip 73B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 50 43

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Matilda Burnham 21% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Somraj Singh 25% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: God I Need A Favor 20-1, R5: Granuaile 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 43 to 50 to 58. A step up in company: $6,000 claiming before, $7,500 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Mar 2; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Matilda Burnham from post 5 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 28 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	5th/7 -1½L	58	23-1	b L	Vied;led3/8;weaknd str
8/29	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k b	3rd/5 -6L	50	13-1	b L	Chased;inside;weakened
8/7	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k n3l	8th/10 -13L	43	9.7-1	b L	Shuffled chute;weakend

6Elsie's SmileRan 5thC. Hargrove · M. McGoeyHargrove · McGoeyA73 63 65▲▲+9@trip 785-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +973 63 65@trip 78A
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 63 65
Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Monica McGoey 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R4: Winston Wolf 15-1
CLASS DROP
Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 96). Best recent figure of 73 sits right around the 79 par.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 DEL 6f D Clm 8k b 5th/12 73 11-1 b L Pace;headed;gave way
8/21 MTH 5f D OC 40k 3rd/3 -6L 63 6.1-1 b L Bobbled break; tired
8/8 MTH 6f D Clm 7k bc 4th/5 -6L 65 2.7-1 b L 2w; no rally

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k b	5th/12	73	11-1	b L	Pace;headed;gave way
8/21	MTH	5f D	OC 40k	3rd/3 -6L	63	6.1-1	b L	Bobbled break; tired
8/8	MTH	6f D	Clm 7k bc	4th/5 -6L	65	2.7-1	b L	2w; no rally

7Stroll Trippin▼Ran 8thL. Briceno · J. MurphyBriceno · MurphyC44 61 54▼▼-9@trip 6130-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -944 61 54@trip 61C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 61 54

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Joseph M Murphy 31% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Spice Gal 20-1, R5: Dale's Bluff 20-1, R8: Sometime 9-5 · Trainer R5: Granuaile 20-1

CLASS DROP

Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 12 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	7f D	Clm 7k b	7th/7 -8½L	44	31-1	b L	Pushed pace;weakened
9/25	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/7 -11L	61	63-1	b L	Outrun
9/4	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	5th/6 -9L	54	13-1	b L	3-2wd turns;no bid

8Tasty Time★Ran 4thJ. Vargas · K. CoxVargas · CoxA66 77 76▼▼-9@trip 866-5Fair 6-544%▼▼ Big drop -966 77 76@trip 86A★ Best at the trip 861

Card model 44% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 77 76

★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Kenneth M Cox 42% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Police Woman 30-1, R5: Carolina Sun 15-1, R7: Watch Out World 30-1, R8: J C's Boys 2-1 +1 more

CLASS DROP6/10 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 77. Worked 4F in :49.00 on Aug 19, 2nd of 19 at the distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 4d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 8 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 20 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	4th/6 -3L	66	1.8-1	b L	Bit closer 3w;flattend
8/30	CNL	6f D	Clm 16k b	3rd/7 by nk	77	6.5-1	b L	4w5/16;slight bothr1/8
7/16	DEL	6f D	OC 16k	3rd/5 -4L	76	3.1-1	b L	Rail;angled;by-faders

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Tasty Time, finished 4th.

1st5Christy My LoveWin$93.60Place$31.80Show$10.80Our #7

2nd1MaidstoneWin—Place$8.40Show$4.60Our #3

3rd2Share SuccessWin—Place—Show$3.00Our #2

4th8Tasty TimeOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

2:34 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#8 · 44%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Tasty Time (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 66 · 77 · 76. Backup is #2 Share Success at 5-2. Use #1 Maidstone in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Christy My Love won (our #7) · top pick Tasty Time ran 4th

What worked

✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 3rd, 2nd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #7)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 TASTY TIME	4th
#2	#2 SHARE SUCCESS	3rd
#3	#1 MAIDSTONE	2nd
#4	#6 ELSIE'S SMILE	5th
#5	#4 COUNTRY ECONOMICS	7th

Actual finish

1st	#5 Christy My Love	our #7
2nd	#1 Maidstone	our #3
3rd	#2 Share Success	our #2
4th	#8 Tasty Time	our #1
5th	#6 Elsie's Smile	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 TASTY TIME (6-5) — our number agrees.
#8 TASTY TIME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (37.6% to their 35.8%).
#2 SHARE SUCCESS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.7% to their 22.5%).
#6 ELSIE'S SMILE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Instagrand Girl; pressure from #6 Elsie's Smile, #4 Country Economics; the shape helps #1 Maidstone, #2 Share Success, #4 Country Economics; and works against #3 Instagrand Girl, #7 Stroll Trippin.

Lead

3Instagrand Girl93

Press

6Elsie's Smile964Country Economics921Maidstone888Tasty Time885Christy My Love852Share Success84

Stalk

none

No style yet

7Stroll Trippin85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Elsie's Smile

Instagrand Girl

Country Economics

Maidstone

Tasty Time

Christy My Love

Share Success

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Share Success

Christy My Love

Stroll Trippin

Maidstone

Instagrand Girl

Country Economics

Elsie's Smile

Tasty Time

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 6-7-8-9)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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