Pick sheet

Race 73:05 PM Alw 48000n1x

5.5F · Turf · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Biscuitwiththeboss, is 42% to win (morning line implies 35%). Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #6, #8.

Top pick #4 Biscuitwiththeboss ML 9-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +14 ↕ Up and down 39–87 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey S. Russell · Trainer B. Russell · KEE 6: 2-2-2 · Dist 10: 1-1-4 · best fig at 5½f turf 87 · 64 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	CNL	5½f T	frHandicap	5th/8 -4L	82	4.9-1	L	Brk in;closr3w;flattnd
6/20	LRL	5½f T	frAlw50040n1x	2nd/8	87	5.7-1	L	Rate ins;ask 1/4;sharp
5/2	LRL	5½f T	frAlw48040n1x	3rd/6	78	3.3-1	L	Ins-2wd;weaken late

Case: Last out 5th/8 -4L in the frHandicap at CNL. Last Brisnet figures 82-87-78. Best at today's distance 87. 1-for-10 at the distance. 2-for-6 at Laurel Park. B. Russell / S. Russell.

Knock: Off 64 days.

Contender #6 Big Bolton ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Jockey J. Ruiz · Trainer M. Milosevic · KEE 3: 1-0-1 · Dist 3: 1-0-1 · best fig at 5½f turf 86 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	rAlw51040n1x	3rd/9	86	8.1-1	b L	Inside; gamely;
9/18	LRL	5½f T	rAlw49040n1x	6th/7 -3¼L	77	4.2-1	b L	Ins;mild run 3/16;even
1/9	LRL	5½f D	OC 62k n1x	5th/7 -6½L	81	8.5-1	b L	Draft back;ins;belated

Case: Last out 3rd in the rAlw51040n1x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 86-77-81. Best at today's distance 86. 1-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Laurel Park. M. Milosevic / J. Ruiz.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Reggie Runs Rogue ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 6th/8 -2¼L in the sStrDNaskrB125k at CNL. Last Brisnet figures 81-90-79. Best at today's distance 80. J. Nixon / W. Ho. Knock: Off 477 days. Never raced at Laurel Park.

Jockey W. Ho · Trainer J. Nixon · 477 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/12	CNL	7f D	sStrDNaskrB125k	6th/8 -2¼L	81	5.0-1		Rail; flattened out
4/13	LRL	6f D	OC 75k	2nd/5 -½L	90	22-1	L	Rate;shift 3-4w;bid;gm
12/7	LRL	7f D	rMdJvnlB100k	5th/7 -5½L	79	6.7-1		Bobbled start;weakened

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #6 · B #1, #7, #8 · C #3, #5

Angles: #2 Last fig 87 at/above par 84 · #3 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Last fig 86 at/above par 84 · #7 Last fig 86 at/above par 84

R7 Laurel Park · Allowance · $48,000 purse

3:05 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $48,000 · 6 runners (2 out)3:05 PM · 5½f Turf · 6 runners (2 out)

Official $48K · Allowance · $48,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Reggie Runs RogueRan 3rdW. Ho · J. NixonHo · NixonB81 90 79►5-1Fair 5-116%► Steady81 90 79B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 81 90 79

Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Justin Nixon 26% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet

180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Freshened 477 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Purse drops from $125,000 to $48,000 against its last start.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/12	CNL	7f D	sStrDNaskrB125k	6th/8 -2¼L	81	5.0-1		Rail; flattened out
4/13	LRL	6f D	OC 75k	2nd/5 -½L	90	22-1	L	Rate;shift 3-4w;bid;gm
12/7	LRL	7f D	rMdJvnlB100k	5th/7 -5½L	79	6.7-1		Bobbled start;weakened

2Chimney Sweep▲Ran 2ndF. Boyce · A. Aguirre Jr.Boyce · Aguirre Jr.A87 76 80▲▲+13@trip 876-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best87 76 80@trip 87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 76 80

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 7-for-40 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Anthony Jr Aguirre 22% career 2-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Let's Be Frank 3-2 · Trainer R1: Zen Dreams 30-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE4/7 board here

Last out was 2nd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 9-horse allowance race at LRL. Best recent figure of 87 sits right around the 84 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Steadied 1/2; bid btwn), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 2 here: 13 wins, 43 top-3 in 102 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	rAlw51040n1x	2nd/9 -1L	87	19-1	b L	Steadied 1/2;bid btwn
9/18	LRL	5½f T	MCL 35k	Won/8	76	1.4-1	b L	Rail; tenacious
8/2	CNL	6f T	rMdSpWt	3rd/9 -3½L	80	6.5-1	b L	2p;moved out;fin well

3Watch Out World▼Ran 5thJ. Vargas · K. HohlbeinVargas · HohlbeinC71 78 65▼-3@trip 7930-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -371 78 65@trip 79C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 78 65

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-29 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Kerry Hohlbein 21% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Police Woman 30-1, R5: Carolina Sun 15-1, R6: Tasty Time 6-5, R8: J C's Boys 2-1 +1 more

CLASS DROP

A step up in company: optional claiming before, allowance today. Worked 4F in :49.60 on Feb 3, 2nd of 14 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 211 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 3 here: 9 wins, 26 top-3 in 49 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LRL	5½f T	OC 12k	6th/10 -4½L	71	27-1	b L	Ducked in; mild rally
9/13	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	6th/9 -4L	78	64-1	b L	Off duel;5wd upper
9/4	TIM	4f D	OC 30k	3rd/5 -2½L	65	20-1	b L	Inside foe;brush 1/16

4Biscuitwiththeboss▲Ran 6thS. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA82 87 78▲▲+14↕@trip 879-5Fair 7-542%▲▲ Big jump +1482 87 78 ↕@trip 87A▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 87 78

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-21 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-30 on turf this meet (37%), #1 of 34 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Fancy Gentleman 9-2, R5: Yo Adrian 5-2, R9: Regalo 1-1 · Trainer R5: Yo Adrian 5-2, R9: Regalo 1-1

60D LAYOFF4/4 board here

Gets a new rider, Sheldon Russell replacing Jevian Toledo. A big drop, handicap to allowance, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 4 here: 26 wins, 62 top-3 in 105 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	CNL	5½f T	frHandicap	5th/8 -4L	82	4.9-1	L	Brk in;closr3w;flattnd
6/20	LRL	5½f T	frAlw50040n1x	2nd/8	87	5.7-1	L	Rate ins;ask 1/4;sharp
5/2	LRL	5½f T	frAlw48040n1x	3rd/6	78	3.3-1	L	Ins-2wd;weaken late

5Enduring GoldLSRan 4thM. Sanchez · M. TrombettaSanchez · TrombettaC75 80 80▼-5≡@trip 808-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -575 80 80 ≡@trip 80CLS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 75–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 80 80

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 9-for-56 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career 4-for-38 on turf this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: War Ace 4-1, R3: Max Haste 5-1, R5: Awards Ceremony 5-1, R8: Overspent 6-1

Jky 25/111 from post 5

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 18d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 5 here: 25 wins, 54 top-3 in 111 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -5L	75	5.7-1	b L	Outpaced;late interest
9/18	LRL	5½f T	rAlw49040n1x	4th/7 -3¼L	80	6.1-1	b L	Btw;alter out late;bid
9/3	CNL	5½f T	rAlw91500n1x	3rd/9 -3L	80	8.8-1	b L	Brk back;4w;willing

6Big Bolton▲Ran 1stJ. Ruiz · M. MilosevicRuiz · MilosevicA86 77 81▲▲+10@trip 864-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best86 77 81@trip 86A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 842

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 77 81

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 8-for-45 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Milan Milosevic 26% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cool Hard Breeze 6-1, R3: Daring Grace 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Sep 12, in :36.40. Jorge Ruiz takes over from Ismerio Villalobos in the saddle.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (3F in :36.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jorge Ruiz from post 6 here: 12 wins, 34 top-3 in 59 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	rAlw51040n1x	3rd/9	86	8.1-1	b L	Inside; gamely;
9/18	LRL	5½f T	rAlw49040n1x	6th/7 -3¼L	77	4.2-1	b L	Ins;mild run 3/16;even
1/9	LRL	5½f D	OC 62k n1x	5th/7 -6½L	81	8.5-1	b L	Draft back;ins;belated

7Rye Diggitydog▲J. Hernandez · H. McMahonHernandez · McMahonB86 77 72▲▲+10@trip 8610-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best86 77 72@trip 86B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 77 72

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Jockey Jorge F Hernandez 38% career 2-for-12 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Hugh I McMahon 3-for-13 on turf this meet (23%)

Jky 10/71 from post 7

Figures are climbing: 72, 77, 86 over its last three. Beaten 4½ lengths for 4th in a 9-horse allowance race at LRL.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 79d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Jorge F Hernandez from post 7 here: 10 wins, 27 top-3 in 71 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	rAlw51040n1x	4th/9 -4½L	86	6.3-1	b L	Slow start; closed
9/18	LRL	5½f T	rAlw49040n1x	5th/7 -5¾L	77	9.8-1	b L	Force in st;swung 5-6w
8/29	DEL	-5f T	Alw n1x	Won/8 by 1¼	72	4.5-1	b L	Off slowly; up wire

8BrightshininglightT. Lyapustina · E. KjelstrupLyapustina · KjelstrupB76 82 73▼-3@trip 829-2<1%▼ Down -376 82 73@trip 82B

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 82 73

Jockey Tais Lyapustina 28% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Eveline Kjelstrup 14% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: The Band Runs On 30-1 · Trainer R8: The Band Runs On 30-1

7/7 board here

Switches from dirt to turf. 3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago

RECORD On the board in all 7 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Tais Lyapustina from post 8 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 45 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	3rd/6 -1½L	76	2.2-1	b L	Stmb;prssd;wtd;gd fnsh
9/18	LRL	5½f T	rAlw49040n1x	2nd/7	82	8.2-1	b L	Outs foe;rzd 3/16;game
7/13	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	5th/11 -5¾L	73	20-1	L	3-4p;7w uppr;belatedly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #6, #8.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Biscuitwiththeboss, finished 6th.

1st6Big BoltonWin$6.60Place$3.60Show$3.20Our #2

2nd2Chimney SweepWin—Place$4.20Show$3.40Our #4

3rd1Reggie Runs RogueWin—Place—Show$4.60Our #3

4th5Enduring GoldOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Allowance · $48,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$48,000

Post

3:05 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 42%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Biscuitwiththeboss (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 82 · 87 · 78. Backup is #6 Big Bolton at 4-1. Use #1 Reggie Runs Rogue in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

Big Bolton (our #2) won · top pick Biscuitwiththeboss ran 6th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 6th, 1st, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (6th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 BISCUITWITHTHEBOSS	6th
#2	#6 BIG BOLTON	1st
#3	#1 REGGIE RUNS ROGUE	3rd
#4	#2 CHIMNEY SWEEP	2nd
#5	#5 ENDURING GOLD	4th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Big Bolton	our #2
2nd	#2 Chimney Sweep	our #4
3rd	#1 Reggie Runs Rogue	our #3
4th	#5 Enduring Gold	our #5
5th	#3 Watch Out World	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 BISCUITWITHTHEBOSS (9-5) — our number agrees.
#4 BISCUITWITHTHEBOSS — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 34.8%, they've got 27.8%.
#6 BIG BOLTON — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.7%, they've got 15.6%.
#1 REGGIE RUNS ROGUE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.4%, they've got 13.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 BISCUITWITHTHEBOSS — we make it 34.8%, the morning line works out to 27.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 BIG BOLTON — we make it 20.7%, the morning line works out to 15.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 REGGIE RUNS ROGUE — we make it 17.4%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 CHIMNEY SWEEP — we make it 13.4%, the morning line works out to 11.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 ENDURING GOLD (8-1) — our fair 10.8% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: top barn (33%) + jockey (37%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Biscuitwiththeboss; pressure from #6 Big Bolton, #8 Brightshininglight; the shape helps #1 Reggie Runs Rogue, #2 Chimney Sweep, #3 Watch Out World; and works against #4 Biscuitwiththeboss.

Lead

4Biscuitwiththeboss89

Press

6Big Bolton1038Brightshininglight90

Stalk

2Chimney Sweep981Reggie Runs Rogue883Watch Out World82

7Rye Diggitydog865Enduring Gold80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Big Bolton

103

Chimney Sweep

Brightshininglight

Biscuitwiththeboss

Reggie Runs Rogue

Watch Out World

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Enduring Gold

Rye Diggitydog

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Bet types

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TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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