Pick sheet

Race 69:05 PM Clm 7500n2y

1 Mi · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Easy Fast, is 34% to win (morning line implies 29%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #8 Easy Fast ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 73–75

Jockey D. Parker · Trainer F. Alonso · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 80 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	2nd/7 -4½L	74	6.8-1	b L	Sqz'd sart; rail rally
10/3	BTP	6f D	Clm 6k	2nd/5 -2½L	75	2.7-1	b L	5-6w upr;rally place
9/5	BTP	6f D	Clm 6k	5th/5 -5L	73	1.2-1	b L	In tight; no threat

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm7500b at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 74-75-73. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-1 at the distance. F. Alonso / D. Parker.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #5 Golden Bandit ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83

Jockey J. Leon · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 4: 1-2-0 · Dist 7: 1-3-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 84 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	2nd/7	84	0.9-1	b L	Game effort
9/29	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/9	82	1.0-1	b L	Set pace; drew off;
8/26	MNR	1m D	ROC 20-40	2nd/6	75	2.3-1	b L	Leg weary caught

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm5000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 84-82-75. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / J. Leon.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 Sudden Shift ML 7-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 58–85 Last out 8th/9 -4L in the Clm7500 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 71-85-67. Best at today's distance 85. 10-for-30 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Mountaineer Park. R. Murillo / B. Tapara. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey B. Tapara · Trainer R. Murillo · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 30: 10-6-4 · best fig at 1m dirt 85 · 12 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k	8th/9 -4L	71	6.5-1	b L	Pressed pace; spent
10/4	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k n2x	Won/8	85	6.5-1	b L	Set pace; drew off;
9/14	TDN	1m D	Clm 5k	6th/7 -4¼L	67	26-1	b L	Inside; weakened lane

Longshot #6 Dr Jack Flyer ML 15-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 ► Steady ★ Best at 1m dirt: 87 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey R. Barrios · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 7: 1-1-1 · Dist 14: 3-3-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 87 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/10 -2L	73	1.9-1	b	Stalked weakened late
10/4	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k n2x	5th/8 -11L	65	3.9-1	b	Evenly; lacked more
9/13	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2xc	2nd/9 -4L	79	4.5-1	b	Chased; second best;

Case: Last out 4th/10 -2L in the Clm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 73-65-79. Best at today's distance 87. 3-for-14 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / R. Barrios.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #8, #9 · B #2, #6, #7 · C #1, #3, #4

Angles: #5 Last fig 84 at/above par 83 · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R6 Mountaineer Park · Claiming $7,500

9:05 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $13,000 · 7 runners (2 out)9:05 PM · 1m Dirt · 7 runners (2 out)

Official $13K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Dr Jack Flyer (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 87 from 7 tries. Not in our top three.

1As One DoesRan 3rdJ. Tavares · B. DelongTavares · DelongC66 70 74►@trip 6610-1Fair 10-19%► Steady66 70 74@trip 66C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 70 74

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Playground Warrior 10-1 · Trainer R5: Playground Warrior 10-1

Raises its level, $4,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now. Trending the wrong way on speed, 74 to 70 to 66.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 48 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	FPK	1m D	Clm 4k n2y	3rd/9 -3L	66	6.4-1	b L	Tracked; steady effort
9/26	FPK	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k n2y	3rd/6	70	1.3-1	b L	Vied; held 3rd
6/21	PRM	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k	3rd/6	74	3.1-1	b LB	Vied;clear;outfinshed

2Sudden ShiftRan 1stB. Tapara · R. MurilloTapara · MurilloB71 85 67►↕@trip 857-1Fair 7-113%► Steady71 85 67 ↕@trip 85B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 85 67

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career ★ 7-for-26 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 28 · Trainer Rodriguez Alejandro Murillo 19% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Mazarn 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Last out was 8th, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 102d ago

RECORD Brandon Tapara from post 2 here: 16 wins, 39 top-3 in 80 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k	8th/9 -4L	71	6.5-1	b L	Pressed pace; spent
10/4	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k n2x	Won/8	85	6.5-1	b L	Set pace; drew off;
9/14	TDN	1m D	Clm 5k	6th/7 -4¼L	67	26-1	b L	Inside; weakened lane

3Brown Liquor ManF. Garcia · C. LopezGarcia · LopezC68 73 59►@trip 8520-1<1%► Steady68 73 59@trip 85C

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 73 59

Jockey F Garcia 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Carlos A Lopez 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Salty Mama 20-1, R3: Tiptoetappin 15-1, R5: Robert Lee 9-1, R7: Mi Amore 7-2 · Trainer R5: Robert Lee 9-1

CLASS DROP4/7 board here

A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $7,500 claiming today. 6th last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 255d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD F Garcia from post 3 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 35 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n4x	6th/8 -1½L	68	7.8-1	b L	Vied lane; weakened;
8/16	MNR	1m D	Clm 15k b	3rd/4	73	2.5-1	b L	Hooked lane; battled
7/7	MNR	1m D	Clm 12k b	5th/5 -11L	59	3.1-1	b L	Played no factor

4Solomons GoldL. Batista · A. FarriorBatista · FarriorC64 75 65▼-6@trip 6112-1<1%▼ Down -664 75 65@trip 61C

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 75 65

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R2: Have A Happy 2-1, R3: Chiva Loca 2-1, R4: Divine Cross 3-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Stretches out from 7 furlongs to a mile. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 75 against a 83 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 4; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 4 here: 27 wins, 79 top-3 in 166 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CT	7f D	Clm 5k b	7th/10 -5½L	64	4.2-1	L	Save ground; no impact
8/29	CT	6½f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/6	75	3.3-1	L	Vied3w1/4;lf-ld;chase
8/8	CT	6½f D	Clm 5k b	4th/6 -1½L	65	3.4-1	L	Bmp;vie3w;lf-ld;faded

5Golden Bandit▲Ran 6thJ. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaA84 82 75▲▲+9@trip 843-1Fair 7-221%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best84 82 75@trip 84A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 832
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 82 75
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83
Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career ★ 9-for-45 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Cole's Valentine 10-1, R2: Gorda 15-1, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1 · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R5: Judy Chop 3-1 +3 more
3/4 board here
Figures are climbing: 75, 82, 84 over its last three. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 98 days ago
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Jose A Leon from post 5 here: 6 wins, 16 top-3 in 67 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 1m D Clm 5k 2nd/7 84 0.9-1 b L Game effort
9/29 MNR 1m D Clm 4k n2x Won/9 82 1.0-1 b L Set pace; drew off;
8/26 MNR 1m D ROC 20-40 2nd/6 75 2.3-1 b L Leg weary caught

6Dr Jack Flyer▼★LSRan 4thR. Barrios · J. SilvaBarrios · SilvaB73 65 79►@trip 8715-1Fair 12-17%► Steady73 65 79@trip 87B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 87LS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 65 79

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 87LS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-38 on dirt this meet (29%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Chizzy 6-1, R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R4: X Gene 12-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R5: Judy Chop 3-1 +3 more

CLASS DROPLASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

Moves up from $4,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Jul 19 (:48.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 6 here: 27 wins, 73 top-3 in 169 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/10 -2L	73	1.9-1	b	Stalked weakened late
10/4	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k n2x	5th/8 -11L	65	3.9-1	b	Evenly; lacked more
9/13	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2xc	2nd/9 -4L	79	4.5-1	b	Chased; second best;

7Rose's PepinoRan 2ndB. Weatherly · R. InmanWeatherly · InmanB74 52 74▲+5↕@trip 8112-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +574 52 74 ↕@trip 81B
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–82 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 52 74
Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Robert L Inman 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Zena Cat 7-1, R2: Sway Me Over 20-1, R3: Zenovia 7-1, R4: Honestly 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Gorda 15-1
6/10 board here
Finished 2nd in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR, beaten 11 lengths. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d back
RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 7 here: 19 wins, 55 top-3 in 130 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 MNR 1m D Clm 7k n2x 2nd/8 -11L 74 2.6-1 Belatedly saved 2nd
8/26 TDN 1m D OC 8k 8th/8 -21L 52 15-1 Never close
8/16 MNR 1m D Clm 15k b Won/4 by 4 74 2.3-1 Got up between foes

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k n2x	2nd/8 -11L	74	2.6-1	Belatedly saved 2nd
8/26	TDN	1m D	OC 8k	8th/8 -21L	52	15-1	Never close
8/16	MNR	1m D	Clm 15k b	Won/4 by 4	74	2.3-1	Got up between foes

8Easy FastRan 5thD. Parker · F. AlonsoParker · AlonsoA74 75 73►≡@trip 802-1Fair 2-134%► Steady74 75 73 ≡@trip 80A1

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–75 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 75 73

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Fernando Alonso 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Itza Kitty 15-1, R8: Memphis Slim 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fernando Alonso takes over the training from Esteban Gordillo. Best recent figure is 75, well under the 83 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 10 (4F in :48.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD D L Parker from post 8 here: 7 wins, 20 top-3 in 32 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	2nd/7 -4½L	74	6.8-1	b L	Sqz'd sart; rail rally
10/3	BTP	6f D	Clm 6k	2nd/5 -2½L	75	2.7-1	b L	5-6w upr;rally place
9/5	BTP	6f D	Clm 6k	5th/5 -5L	73	1.2-1	b L	In tight; no threat

9Le GriffonRan 7thR. Dumont · K. KnudsenDumont · KnudsenA82 49 70▲▲+22↕@trip 827-2Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +2282 49 70 ↕@trip 82A
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 49 70
Jockey Reynaldo Dumont 14% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kent Knudsen 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Hidden Favor 6-1 · Trainer R1: Itza Kitty 15-1
60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST
Freshened 173 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from Alexis Cordero-Lopez to Kent Knudsen.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 19d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/12 MNR 1m D Clm 4k n1x Won/6 82 7.2-1 L Set pace; shook clear
4/26 MNR 6f D Clm 7k b 6th/6 -11L 49 18-1 L Always outrun
3/22 TAM 1 1/16 D Clm 5k n1y 7th/12 -6L 70 19-1 L Bmp brk;2p;tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/12	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/6	82	7.2-1	L	Set pace; shook clear
4/26	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k b	6th/6 -11L	49	18-1	L	Always outrun
3/22	TAM	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n1y	7th/12 -6L	70	19-1	L	Bmp brk;2p;tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Easy Fast, finished 5th.

1st2Sudden ShiftWin$7.20Place$4.00Show$3.20Our #3

2nd7Rose's PepinoWin—Place$5.00Show$3.40Our #7

3rd1As One DoesWin—Place—Show$6.40Our #5

4th6Dr Jack FlyerOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

9 runners

Purse

$13,000

Post

9:05 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#8 · 34%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.44

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #8 Easy Fast (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 74 · 75 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Golden Bandit at 3-1. Use #2 Sudden Shift in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Sudden Shift (our #3) won · top pick Easy Fast ran 5th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 6th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 EASY FAST	5th
#2	#5 GOLDEN BANDIT	6th
#3	#2 SUDDEN SHIFT	1st
#4	#9 LE GRIFFON	7th
#5	#1 AS ONE DOES	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#2 Sudden Shift	our #3
2nd	#7 Rose's Pepino	our #7
3rd	#1 As One Does	our #5
4th	#6 Dr Jack Flyer	our #6
5th	#8 Easy Fast	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 EASY FAST (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 EASY FAST — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.4% to their 25.9%).
#5 GOLDEN BANDIT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 19.4%).
#9 LE GRIFFON — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.7% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 DR JACK FLYER (15-1) — our fair 6.1% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Sudden Shift; pressure from #5 Golden Bandit, #9 Le Griffon; the shape helps #7 Rose's Pepino, #8 Easy Fast; and works against #1 As One Does, #2 Sudden Shift, #5 Golden Bandit.

Lead

2Sudden Shift965Golden Bandit899Le Griffon831As One Does80

Press

6Dr Jack Flyer924Solomons Gold80

Stalk

3Brown Liquor Man76

8Easy Fast677Rose's Pepino64

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sudden Shift

Dr Jack Flyer

Golden Bandit

Le Griffon

As One Does

Solomons Gold

Brown Liquor Man

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Rose's Pepino

Easy Fast

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