Pick sheet

Race 17:00 PM Clm 12500n2xEarly Pick 4 starts

7F · Turf · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Rizz, is 30% to win (morning line implies 24%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Rizz ML 3-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 32–81

Jockey J. Bracho · Trainer L. Ruberto · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	MNR	6f D	MSW	Won/8	66	0.4-1	L	Driving
9/21	MNR	5½f D	MSW	3rd/9 -7L	53	3.2-1	L	Chased; weakened;
8/11	PID	6f D	MSW	5th/5 -17L	32	3.2-1	L	Through after half;

Case: Last out won in the fMdSpWt at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 66-53-32. L. Ruberto / J. Bracho.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park.

Contender #6 Zena Cat ML 7-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -14

Jockey B. Weatherly · Trainer C. Godsey · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 15k n2x	5th/7 -4L	53	1.6-1	L	Stumbled; led; tired;
9/28	MNR	1m T	Alw n2x	5th/7 -2½L	67	2.9-1	L	Stalked pace; short
8/24	MNR	1m D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -2L	66	2.1-1	L	Pressed turned away

Case: Last out 5th/7 -4L in the fClm15000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 53-67-66. 1-for-2 at Mountaineer Park. C. Godsey / B. Weatherly.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Mazarn ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best Last out 2nd in the fClm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 68-60-56. Best at today's distance 62. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Mountaineer Park. J. Brown / B. Tapara. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey B. Tapara · Trainer J. Brown · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 7f turf 62 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/5	68	1.5-1	b L	Dueled abreast to wire
9/23	MNR	6f D	Clm 10k n2x	2nd/6 -2L	60	18-1	b L	Finished strong rail
9/13	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/8 -9½L	56	2.9-1	b L	Moved up on rail

Longshot #4 Heart Beats True ML 12-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -21

Jockey C. Oliveros · Trainer E. Reed · 82 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/11	MNR	6f D	Alw n2x	7th/8 -8½L	53	4.8-1	b L	Chased pace; faded
7/5	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	7th/7 -2¾L	80	19-1	b L	Bobbled st; 4wd;no bid
6/7	GP	5½f D	OC 25k n1x	7th/7 -8L	68	7.4-1	L	Step slw;always outrun

Case: Last out 7th/8 -8½L in the fAlw19600n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 53-80-68. E. Reed / C. Oliveros.

Knock: Off 82 days. Never raced at Mountaineer Park.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #11 · B #4, #5, #6 · C #1, #7, #8, #9, #10, #12, #13, #14

Angles: #1 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #3 Last fig 78 at/above par 71 · #7 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #8 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #9 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #10 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #11 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 69) · #12 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #13 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #14 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 71

R1 Mountaineer Park · Claiming $12,500

7:00 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Turf · $12,000 · 10 runners (4 out)7:00 PM · 7f Turf · 10 runners (4 out)

Official $12K · Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Vai Gattina▼Ran 4thK. Gonzalez · C. PickettGonzalez · PickettC61 36 51▲▲+28↕10-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +2861 36 51 ↕C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +28 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 12–61 · Last 3 figs 61 36 51

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 5-for-22 on turf this meet (23%), #2 of 17 · Trainer Crystal G Pickett 20% career

Also today · Jockey this race: Slush Fund 12-1, R3: Halo Nashry 20-1, R4: Vingativa 15-1, R7: Dialed Inna 15-1 +1 more

Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 61 against a 71 par.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 127d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 1 here: 30 wins, 93 top-3 in 236 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	MNR	1m T	Clm 10k n2x	5th/10 -1¼L	61	38-1	b L	Needed more late
8/17	MNR	1m D	Clm 10k n2x	6th/6 -18L	36	21-1	b L	Folded up early
7/13	MNR	1m T	Clm 15k n2x	10th/10 -11L	51	21-1	b L	Middle move; faded

2RizzRan 8thJ. Bracho · L. RubertoBracho · RubertoA66 53 32▲▲+11↕3-1Fair 5-230%▲▲ Big jump +1166 53 32 ↕A1
Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 32–81 · Last 3 figs 66 53 32
Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Louis V Ruberto 21% career 1-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Melly B. Good 3-1 · Trainer R3: Melly B. Good 3-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Winner of an 8-horse maiden special weight race at MNR last time. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (4F in :48.00), 0 works in 30d
RECORD Jose A Bracho from post 2 here: 6 wins, 25 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 MNR 6f D MSW Won/8 66 0.4-1 L Driving
9/21 MNR 5½f D MSW 3rd/9 -7L 53 3.2-1 L Chased; weakened;
8/11 PID 6f D MSW 5th/5 -17L 32 3.2-1 L Through after half;

3Beautriz▲E. Barbaran · J. BairdBarbaran · BairdA78 66 67▲▲+142-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best78 66 67A▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 71

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 66 67

▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 71

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer J Michael Baird 24% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Trainer R5: Blown Away 12-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse optional claiming race at MNR.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Clear turn; drew off.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :52.40 on Mar 31 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Erik Barbaran from post 3 here: 13 wins, 38 top-3 in 73 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	MNR	6f D	fsOC15000b	Won/7	78	0.8-1	b L	Clear turn; drew off;
7/16	CT	6½f D	fsClm15000n3l	3rd/6 -2½L	66	2.3-1	b L	Drift1st;pres;lf-ld;ev
5/16	CT	7f D	fsClm15000n2l	Won/6	67	2.2-1	b L	Bore out;duel2w;drivin

4Heart Beats TrueLSRan 6thC. Oliveros · E. ReedOliveros · ReedB53 80 68▼▼-2112-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -2153 80 68BLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · Last 3 figs 53 80 68

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 2-for-24 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Eric R Reed 31% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Mary McGee 10-1, R2: Super Pachi 5-1, R5: Greatdayforhockey 2-1, R8: Quistmer 2-1

60D LAYOFF

Figure of 80 on the record sits above the 71 par. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 26d ago

RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 4 here: 23 wins, 71 top-3 in 137 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/11	MNR	6f D	Alw n2x	7th/8 -8½L	53	4.8-1	b L	Chased pace; faded
7/5	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	7th/7 -2¾L	80	19-1	b L	Bobbled st; 4wd;no bid
6/7	GP	5½f D	OC 25k n1x	7th/7 -8L	68	7.4-1	L	Step slw;always outrun

5MazarnRan 7thB. Tapara · J. BrownTapara · BrownB68 60 56▲▲+9@trip 626-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best68 60 56@trip 62B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 60 56

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #3 of 17 · Trainer John T Brown 37% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Sudden Shift 7-1

CLASS DROP7/10 board here

Has moved up each time out, 56 to 60 to 68. A step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 172d back)

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Brandon Tapara from post 5 here: 11 wins, 34 top-3 in 77 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/5	68	1.5-1	b L	Dueled abreast to wire
9/23	MNR	6f D	Clm 10k n2x	2nd/6 -2L	60	18-1	b L	Finished strong rail
9/13	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/8 -9½L	56	2.9-1	b L	Moved up on rail

6Zena CatRan 2ndB. Weatherly · C. GodseyWeatherly · GodseyB53 67 66▼▼-147-1Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -1453 67 66B2

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 53 67 66

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer C Marshall Godsey 16% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Sway Me Over 20-1, R3: Zenovia 7-1, R4: Honestly 8-1, R6: Rose's Pepino 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Pure Panic 9-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/7 board here

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going a mile.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)

TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled; led; tired last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 10 (4F in :47.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 6 here: 18 wins, 52 top-3 in 155 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 15k n2x	5th/7 -4L	53	1.6-1	L	Stumbled; led; tired;
9/28	MNR	1m T	Alw n2x	5th/7 -2½L	67	2.9-1	L	Stalked pace; short
8/24	MNR	1m D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -2L	66	2.1-1	L	Pressed turned away

7Gamay▼Ran 1stL. Tapara · T. MartinezTapara · MartinezC63 61 63►≡9-1Fair 10-110%► Steady63 61 63 ≡C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 71
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–63 · Last 3 figs 63 61 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 71
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Tomas Martinez 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Can't Argue That 12-1, R3: Binational 12-1, R7: General Ginny 12-1, R8: Collectorate 3-1
WON LAST
Won last out in an 8-horse maiden claiming $4,000 race at MNR. Moves up from maiden claiming $4,000 to $12,500 claiming.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Broke late; drew off.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 127 days ago
RECORD Luis Tapara from post 7 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 60 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 MNR 1m D MCL 4k Won/8 63 0.5-1 L Broke late; drew off;
10/2 TDN 6f D MCL 5k 3rd/7 -9½L 61 3.7-1 L Finished determinedly
9/10 TDN 6f D MCL 5k 3rd/6 -2½L 63 2.2-1 L Contended; willingly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	1m D	MCL 4k	Won/8	63	0.5-1	L	Broke late; drew off;
10/2	TDN	6f D	MCL 5k	3rd/7 -9½L	61	3.7-1	L	Finished determinedly
9/10	TDN	6f D	MCL 5k	3rd/6 -2½L	63	2.2-1	L	Contended; willingly

8Gambi▼Ran 5thR. Blanche · J. AlessiBlanche · AlessiC44 48 53▼-7≡20-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -744 48 53 ≡C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 44–53 · Last 3 figs 44 48 53

▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Rishawn Blanche 24% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer James Alessi 14% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey this race: Spirit To Inspire 9-2, R2: Mika's Way 7-1 · Trainer R7: Dialed Inna 15-1

CLASS UP

Figures have slipped: 53, 48, 44 over its last three. Best recent figure is 53, well under the 71 par for this level.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 0 works in 30d, last 31d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 15k n2x	6th/7 -10L	44	81-1	b L	Stalked pace; spent
7/18	BTP	1 1/16 T	Clm 7k n2l	8th/9 -7¼L	48	51-1	b L	7-w upper;lacked bid
6/25	BTP	1m T	MCL 7k	Won/7	53	3.7-1	b L	Tracked 2p;drove clear

9Itza Kitty▼Ran 3rdD. Parker · K. KnudsenParker · KnudsenC61 52 57▲+4@trip 6315-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +461 52 57@trip 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 52 57

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey D L Parker 35% career ★ 6-for-23 on turf this meet (26%), #1 of 17 · Trainer Kent Knudsen 32% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Easy Fast 2-1, R8: Memphis Slim 15-1 · Trainer R6: Le Griffon 7-2

3/6 board here

Cuts back from a mile to 7 furlongs. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 126d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD D L Parker from post 9 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 22 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 15k n2x	2nd/7 -3½L	61	11-1	L	Bid willingly mid tk
10/4	MNR	6f D	Clm 15k n2x	6th/7 -11L	52	12-1	L	Faded on the turn
9/23	MNR	6f D	Clm 10k n2x	4th/6 -2½L	57	4.5-1	L	Wide bid even finish

10Salty Mama▼Ran 10thF. Garcia · Z. KripleGarcia · KripleC33 45 76▼▼-23↕20-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -2333 45 76 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–76 · Last 3 figs 33 45 76
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey F Garcia 33% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Zvi Kriple 14% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Tiptoetappin 15-1, R5: Robert Lee 9-1, R6: Brown Liquor Man 20-1, R7: Mi Amore 7-2
60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPJky 0/28 from post 10
Off 60 days since the last start. Moves up from $3,200 claiming to $12,500 claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 142d back)
RECORD Not on the board in 7 starts here
RECORD F Garcia has never won from post 10 here (5 top-3 in 28 rides) · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/2 MNR 4½f D Clm 3k n2x 5th/5 -9L 33 7.4-1 b L Always outrun
8/12 MNR 2f D Clm 7k 5th/7 -8½L 45 35-1 b L Not involved
7/26 MNR 2f D Clm 7k 5th/7 -3¼L 76 70-1 b L Needed more

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/2	MNR	4½f D	Clm 3k n2x	5th/5 -9L	33	7.4-1	b L	Always outrun
8/12	MNR	2f D	Clm 7k	5th/7 -8½L	45	35-1	b L	Not involved
7/26	MNR	2f D	Clm 7k	5th/7 -3¼L	76	70-1	b L	Needed more

11Spirit to Inspire▼R. Blanche · M. KendrickBlanche · KendrickA57 69 56▼-79-2<1%▼ Down -757 69 56A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 69)

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 57 69 56

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 69)

Jockey Rishawn Blanche 24% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Mark A Kendrick 14% career

Also today · Jockey this race: Gambi 20-1, R2: Mika's Way 7-1 · Trainer R2: Mika's Way 7-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 15, in :47.40. Goes 7 furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 15; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Alw n2x	5th/7 -3¾L	57	7.3-1	L	Vied turn; faded lane
6/25	HAW	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	2nd/6	69	3.1-1	L	Coax 5/16;3w upr;game
5/31	HAW	5½f D	Clm 5k n2l	3rd/5 -3½L	56	9.2-1	L	Press2w1/4;lf-ld;even

12Cole's Valentine▼J. Leon · R. BaezLeon · BaezC63 56 51▲+610-1<1%▲ Up +663 56 51C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 63 56 51

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Ralph N Baez 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Gorda 15-1, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R6: Golden Bandit 3-1

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $12,500 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 51 to 56 to 63.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 165 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PID	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	3rd/6 -4¼L	63	52-1	b L	Tracked; mild bid
10/5	PID	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k n3l	5th/5 -5½L	56	14-1	b L	Hop st; no factor;
9/18	PID	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	6th/6 -15L	51	54-1	b L	Off slow;2-3w;tired

13Light My Flame▼Ran 9thL. Batista · S. DonjuanBatista · DonjuanC62 51 57▲▲+1010-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +1062 51 57C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 71
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Last 3 figs 62 51 57
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 71
Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career ★ 4-for-20 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Sergio Donjuan 24% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Have A Happy 2-1, R3: Chiva Loca 2-1, R4: Divine Cross 3-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Chiva Loca 2-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at MNR at 2-1. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 62 against a 71 par.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Even turn drew off.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 78d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/20 MNR 6f D MCL 15k Won/9 62 2.0-1 b L Even turn drew off;
10/10 BTP 5½f D MSW 6th/9 -10L 51 26-1 b L 2nd flight;3-4w;wknd
9/30 BTP 6f D MSW 2nd/5 -1L 57 5.3-1 b L 3w-pursuit;all-out plc

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	6f D	MCL 15k	Won/9	62	2.0-1	b L	Even turn drew off;
10/10	BTP	5½f D	MSW	6th/9 -10L	51	26-1	b L	2nd flight;3-4w;wknd
9/30	BTP	6f D	MSW	2nd/5 -1L	57	5.3-1	b L	3w-pursuit;all-out plc

14Slush Fund▼K. Gonzalez · J. JohnsonGonzalez · JohnsonC37 53 60▲▲+15↕12-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1537 53 60 ↕C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures -48–60 · Last 3 figs 37 53 60

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 5-for-22 on turf this meet (23%), #2 of 17 · Trainer Jennifer A Johnson 31% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey this race: Vai Gattina 10-1, R3: Halo Nashry 20-1, R4: Vingativa 15-1, R7: Dialed Inna 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Halo Nashry 20-1

Kevin Gonzalez takes over from F Garcia in the saddle. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 83d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/20	MNR	5f D	sAlw19200n2l	6th/6 -13L	37	12-1	Gave way on the turn
9/13	MNR	6f D	fsOC15000b	5th/7 -2L	53	36-1	Pressed pace; tired;
8/26	MNR	6f D	fsOC15000n2l	4th/6 -3L	60	31-1	Finished evenly inside

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Rizz, finished 8th.

1st7GamayWin$20.60Place$8.40Show$5.20Our #5

2nd6Zena CatWin—Place$5.60Show$3.40Our #2

3rd9Itza KittyWin—Place—Show$4.20Our #7

4th1Vai GattinaOur #8

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Claiming $12,500

Field

14 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

7:00 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 30%

Claiming $12,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.43

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Rizz (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 66 · 53 · 32. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Zena Cat at 7-1. Use #5 Mazarn in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Gamay won (our #5) · top pick Rizz ran 8th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (8th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
✗ Our top 3 finished 8th, 2nd, 7th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 RIZZ	8th
#2	#6 ZENA CAT	2nd
#3	#5 MAZARN	7th
#4	#4 HEART BEATS TRUE	—
#5	#7 GAMAY	1st

Actual finish

1st	#7 Gamay	our #5
2nd	#6 Zena Cat	our #2
3rd	#9 Itza Kitty	our #7
4th	#1 Vai Gattina	our #8
5th	#8 Gambi	our #9

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BEAUTRIZ (2-1) — our number has it ranked #11.
#2 RIZZ — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.8%, they've got 14.6%.
#6 ZENA CAT — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 13.4%, the board 7.3%.
#5 MAZARN — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 13.2%, the board 8.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 RIZZ — we make it 25.8%, the morning line works out to 14.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 HEART BEATS TRUE (12-1) — our fair 8.4% is above the morning line's 4.5%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Rizz; pressure from #10 Salty Mama, #6 Zena Cat; the shape helps #1 Vai Gattina, #5 Mazarn; and works against #2 Rizz, #6 Zena Cat, #10 Salty Mama.

Lead

2Rizz9010Salty Mama896Zena Cat86

Press

3Beautriz918Gambi8411Spirit To Inspire8214Slush Fund80

Stalk

4Heart Beats True8913Light My Flame8012Cole's Valentine729Itza Kitty707Gamay62

5Mazarn871Vai Gattina81

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Beautriz

Rizz

Heart Beats True

Salty Mama

Zena Cat

Gambi

Spirit To Inspire

Light My Flame

Slush Fund

Cole's Valentine

Itza Kitty

Gamay

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Vai Gattina

Mazarn

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1

SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX $2 PICK 4 (RACES 1-4) $.50 WHEEL

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.