Pick sheet

Race 79:30 PM ROC 20-40

1 Mi · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Summersattheshore, is 44% to win (morning line implies 39%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #8 Summersattheshore ML 2-1 Fair 6-5 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 69–75

Jockey J. Skerrett · Trainer J. Vazquez · KEE 12: 3-3-3 · Dist 19: 3-6-4 · best fig at 1m dirt 75 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	2nd/5 -2½L	71	1.7-1	b L	Abreast foe denied
9/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n4x	Won/5	74	0.6-1	b L	Drew off; much best
8/25	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n2y	3rd/7 by hd	69	7.6-1	b L	Hooked lane weakened;

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm5000n3x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 71-74-69. Best at today's distance 75. 3-for-19 at the distance. 3-for-12 at Mountaineer Park. J. Vazquez / J. Skerrett.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Legacy Trail ML 7-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3

Jockey A. Ramgeet · Trainer T. Ramgeet · KEE 21: 5-1-5 · Dist 5: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 75 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	4th/8 -9½L	67	5.3-1	b L	Moved up late
9/30	MNR	7f T	OC 7k	5th/8 -15L	64	5.8-1	b L	Lagged passed a few
8/25	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n2y	Won/7	75	2.8-1	b L	Cleared held on wire

Case: Last out 4th/8 -9½L in the fOC10000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 67-64-75. Best at today's distance 75. 1-for-5 at the distance. 5-for-21 at Mountaineer Park. T. Ramgeet / A. Ramgeet.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #4 Mi Amore ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -5 ≡ Steady 72–79 Last out 5th/7 -5¾L in the fOC8000 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 72-76-79. Best at today's distance 76. 2-for-4 at the distance. M. Valdez / F. Garcia. Knock: Off 151 days. Never raced at Mountaineer Park.

Jockey F. Garcia · Trainer M. Valdez · Dist 4: 2-0-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 76 · 151 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/3	TDN	1m D	OC 8k	5th/7 -5¾L	72	4.5-1	L	4w; no rally
5/19	PID	1m D	OC 10k	Won/7 by 1½	76	5.3-1	L	Clsd well 6w;in time
4/25	TAM	7f D	OC 12k	2nd/8 -7L	79	21-1	L	Inside; late bid 2p

Longshot #3 Lamporghini ML 10-1 Fair 7-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -14 ★ Best at 1m dirt: 80

Jockey H. Haldar · Trainer O. Romero · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 7: 1-0-3 · best fig at 1m dirt 80 · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	TDN	1m D	Clm 5k	7th/8 -2L	64	1.2-1	b L	Inside;weakened late
9/16	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	Won/6	79	0.4-1	b L	Drew off; much best
8/25	TDN	1m D	OC 8k	3rd/6 -2½L	80	21-1	b L	Boxed in far turn

Case: Last out 7th/8 -2L in the fClm5000 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 64-79-80. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. O. Romero / H. Haldar.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #7, #8 · B #3, #5, #6 · C #1, #2, #9

Angles: #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #9 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R7 Mountaineer Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

9:30 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $11,000 · 5 runners (4 out)9:30 PM · 1m Dirt · 5 runners (4 out)

Official $11K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Lamporghini (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 80 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1Dialed InnaK. Gonzalez · J. AlessiGonzalez · AlessiC43 47 36▼-4↕@trip 6415-1<1%▼ Down -443 47 36 ↕@trip 64C
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–59 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 43 47 36
Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer James Alessi 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Vai Gattina 10-1, R1: Slush Fund 12-1, R3: Halo Nashry 20-1, R4: Vingativa 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Gambi 20-1
Finished 4th in a 4-horse optional claiming race at BTP, beaten 15 lengths. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 5; 0 works in 30d
RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 1 here: 30 wins, 93 top-3 in 236 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/17 BTP 1m D OC 10k 4th/4 -15L 43 24-1 L Far back; no threat
7/23 BTP 5½f D OC 10k 7th/7 -10L 47 37-1 b L Bit slow st; trailed
9/13 BTP 6f D OC 10k 5th/5 -10L 36 32-1 b L 3-w; gave

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	BTP	1m D	OC 10k	4th/4 -15L	43	24-1	L	Far back; no threat
7/23	BTP	5½f D	OC 10k	7th/7 -10L	47	37-1	b L	Bit slow st; trailed
9/13	BTP	6f D	OC 10k	5th/5 -10L	36	32-1	b L	3-w; gave

2General GinnyRan 1stL. Tapara · T. RamgeetTapara · RamgeetC64 65 67►@trip 6412-1Fair 10-110%► Steady64 65 67@trip 64C

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 65 67

Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Tina Ramgeet 28% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Gamay 9-1, R2: Can't Argue That 12-1, R3: Binational 12-1, R8: Collectorate 3-1 · Trainer R2: Blue Ice 3-1, R4: Greyhound Station 9-1, this race: Legacy Trail 7-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board here

Class relief: $5,000 claiming last time, unknown today. Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 28 (4F in :48.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Luis Tapara from post 2 here: 8 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	3rd/5 -8½L	64	3.8-1	b L	Slow early; minor gain
9/14	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k	5th/8 -4¾L	65	25-1	b L	Hopped at the break
8/25	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/9 by 5	67	2.2-1	b L	Surged up 6 wide

3Lamporghini★LSRan 2ndH. Haldar · O. RomeroHaldar · RomeroB64 79 80▼▼-14@trip 8010-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1464 79 80@trip 80B★ Best at the trip 80LS
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 79 80
★ Best at the trip 80LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 13% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Humberto Haldar 27% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Oscar Romero 26% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Pasta Salad Rhonda 6-1, R8: Law Of The Jungle 20-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 80, with 79 next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 79 to 64.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 153d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 TDN 1m D Clm 5k 7th/8 -2L 64 1.2-1 b L Inside;weakened late
9/16 MNR 1m D Clm 5k Won/6 79 0.4-1 b L Drew off; much best
8/25 TDN 1m D OC 8k 3rd/6 -2½L 80 21-1 b L Boxed in far turn
4Mi AmoreRan 5thF. Garcia · M. ValdezGarcia · ValdezA72 76 79▼-5≡@trip 767-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -572 76 79 ≡@trip 76A3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 72–79 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 76 79
Jockey F Garcia 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Moises Valdez 21% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Salty Mama 20-1, R3: Tiptoetappin 15-1, R5: Robert Lee 9-1, R6: Brown Liquor Man 20-1 · Trainer R4: Miss M M 7-1
60D LAYOFF
151 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
RECORD F Garcia from post 4 here: 2 wins, 15 top-3 in 34 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/3 TDN 1m D OC 8k 5th/7 -5¾L 72 4.5-1 L 4w; no rally
5/19 PID 1m D OC 10k Won/7 by 1½ 76 5.3-1 L Clsd well 6w;in time
4/25 TAM 7f D OC 12k 2nd/8 -7L 79 21-1 L Inside; late bid 2p
5Legacy TrailRan 3rdA. Ramgeet · T. RamgeetRamgeet · RamgeetB67 64 75▼-3@trip 757-1Fair 5-117%▼ Down -367 64 75@trip 75B2
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 64 75
Jockey A R Ramgeet 29% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Tina Ramgeet 28% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Blue Ice 3-1, R4: Greyhound Station 9-1 · Trainer R2: Blue Ice 3-1, R4: Greyhound Station 9-1, this race: General Ginny 12-1
10/20 board here
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. Was running in optional claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 22 (3F in :36.00), 0 works in 30d
RECORD 5 wins, 10 on the board from 20 starts here
RECORD A R Ramgeet from post 5 here: 3 wins, 20 top-3 in 55 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 MNR 6f D OC 10k 4th/8 -9½L 67 5.3-1 b L Moved up late
9/30 MNR 7f T OC 7k 5th/8 -15L 64 5.8-1 b L Lagged passed a few
8/25 MNR 1m D Clm 5k n2y Won/7 75 2.8-1 b L Cleared held on wire
6The Shoe Lady▼E. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleB54 80 68▼▼-17↕@trip 6812-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1754 80 68 ↕@trip 68B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–80 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 80 68
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)
★ FASTEST WORK4/7 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 79 for the next best. 5th last time, 14 lengths back, in a field of 8.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.20 on Aug 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Elijah Greenidge from post 6 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 28 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/15 MNR 6f D OC 10k 5th/8 -14L 54 16-1 L Weakened on the turn
8/16 MNR 6f D ROC 20-40 Won/7 by 3 80 6.8-1 L Wide bid rallied clear
7/28 MNR 1m D Clm 4k b 3rd/9 -3¼L 68 3.8-1 L Gained show
7MarmaraR. Barrios · G. ShaferBarrios · ShaferA66 63 62►≡3-1<1%► Steady66 63 62 ≡A
Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 62–69 · Last 3 figs 66 63 62
Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-38 on dirt this meet (29%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 27
Also today · Jockey R2: Chizzy 6-1, R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R4: X Gene 12-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1 +2 more
WON LAST3/6 board here
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse $3,200 claiming race at MNR at 2.5-1. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 497d back)
RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 7 here: 19 wins, 48 top-3 in 140 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 MNR 6f D Clm 3k n3x Won/5 66 2.5-1 b L Driving
9/30 MNR 7f T OC 7k 6th/8 -11L 63 51-1 b L Played no factor
9/15 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n1l 4th/9 -4L 62 7.2-1 b L Chased pace weakened;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/15	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	5th/8 -14L	54	16-1	L	Weakened on the turn
8/16	MNR	6f D	ROC 20-40	Won/7 by 3	80	6.8-1	L	Wide bid rallied clear
7/28	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k b	3rd/9 -3¼L	68	3.8-1	L	Gained show

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k n3x	Won/5	66	2.5-1	b L	Driving
9/30	MNR	7f T	OC 7k	6th/8 -11L	63	51-1	b L	Played no factor
9/15	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	4th/9 -4L	62	7.2-1	b L	Chased pace weakened;

8SummersattheshoreRan 4thJ. Skerrett · J. VazquezSkerrett · VazquezA71 74 69►≡@trip 752-1Fair 6-544%► Steady71 74 69 ≡@trip 75A1

Card model 44% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 74 69

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Carlos Vazquez 30% career 6-for-37 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Springtimeprincess 20-1 · Trainer R2: Springtimeprincess 20-1

9/12 board here

Sheds 5 pounds from its last start. Drops from $5,000 claiming to unknown.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 159 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 9 on the board from 12 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	2nd/5 -2½L	71	1.7-1	b L	Abreast foe denied
9/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n4x	Won/5	74	0.6-1	b L	Drew off; much best
8/25	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n2y	3rd/7 by hd	69	7.6-1	b L	Hooked lane weakened;

9Breezy Dance▼L. Negron · J. BernardiniNegron · BernardiniC60 59 26▲▲+12↕@trip 7120-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1260 59 26 ↕@trip 71C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 26–60 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 59 26

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 7-for-52 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: American Of Course 2-1, R8: Johnnyfrenchfri 3-1

Figures are climbing: 26, 59, 60 over its last three. 3 wins from 8 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Feb 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Luis Negron from post 9 here: 11 wins, 37 top-3 in 70 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	4th/5 -½L	60	6.2-1	b L	Pressed pace; tired;
9/18	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k b	3rd/5 -4L	59	10-1	b L	Kept on; weakened late
6/29	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n2yc	6th/6 -20L	26	3.4-1	b L	Vied btwn; stopped

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Summersattheshore, finished 4th.

1st2General GinnyWin$29.20Place$6.40Show—Our #5

2nd3LamporghiniWin—Place$2.60Show—Our #4

3rd5Legacy TrailWin—Place—Show—Our #2

4th8SummersattheshoreOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

9 runners

Purse

$11,000

Post

9:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#8 · 44%

Claiming $4,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.44

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Summersattheshore (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 71 · 74 · 69. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Legacy Trail at 7-1. Use #4 Mi Amore in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

General Ginny won (our #5) · top pick Summersattheshore ran 4th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 3rd, 5th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 SUMMERSATTHESHORE	4th
#2	#5 LEGACY TRAIL	3rd
#3	#4 MI AMORE	5th
#4	#3 LAMPORGHINI	2nd
#5	#2 GENERAL GINNY	1st

Actual finish

1st	#2 General Ginny	our #5
2nd	#3 Lamporghini	our #4
3rd	#5 Legacy Trail	our #2
4th	#8 Summersattheshore	our #1
5th	#4 Mi Amore	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 SUMMERSATTHESHORE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 SUMMERSATTHESHORE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 38.1%, they've got 25.9%.
#4 MI AMORE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.5%, they've got 17.3%.
#5 LEGACY TRAIL — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 17.0%, the board 9.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#8 SUMMERSATTHESHORE — we make it 38.1%, the morning line works out to 25.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 MI AMORE — we make it 23.5%, the morning line works out to 17.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 LEGACY TRAIL (7-1) — our fair 17.0% is above the morning line's 9.7%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Breezy Dance; pressure from #7 Marmara, #3 Lamporghini; the shape helps #1 Dialed Inna, #3 Lamporghini, #6 The Shoe Lady; and works against #9 Breezy Dance.

Lead

9Breezy Dance88

Press

7Marmara903Lamporghini828Summersattheshore771Dialed Inna66

Stalk

6The Shoe Lady82

4Mi Amore815Legacy Trail772General Ginny73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Marmara

Breezy Dance

Lamporghini

The Shoe Lady

Summersattheshore

Dialed Inna

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

General Ginny

Mi Amore

Legacy Trail

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