Pick sheet

Race 58:40 PM Clm 4000n2xLate Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Greatdayforhockey, is 21% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Greatdayforhockey ML 2-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -6 ≡ Steady 60–67 ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey C. Oliveros · Trainer I. Quezada · Dist 4: 0-2-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 66 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	5f D	Clm 5k b	6th/7 -10L	60	12-1	b L	8 wide 1/4; no rally
9/25	BTP	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/5 -7L	66	7.1-1	b L	Back early;bid 1/4p;3w
9/4	BTP	6f D	Alw n3l	3rd/5 -4L	67	21-1	b L	4w; no closing bid

Case: Last out 6th/7 -10L in the Clm5000b at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 60-66-67. Best at today's distance 66. 0-for-4 at the distance. I. Quezada / C. Oliveros.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #7 Judy Chop ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -4 ≡ Steady 56–64

Jockey R. Barrios · Trainer J. Silva · Dist 6: 0-2-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 64 · 18 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/6 -8½L	56	22-1	b L	No response; faded
9/30	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	4th/6 -6L	64	2.6-1	b L	Well placed; weakened;
9/15	PID	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	2nd/6	61	7.7-1	b L	Responded;outfinished

Case: Last out 5th/6 -8½L in the Clm6250n2l at PID. Last Brisnet figures 56-64-61. Best at today's distance 64. 0-for-6 at the distance. J. Silva / R. Barrios.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. 0-for-6 at the distance.

Use #10 Crime Lord ML 7-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ★ Best at 5½f dirt: 71 Last out 4th/9 -11L in the Clm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 64-54-56. Best at today's distance 71. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-9 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / A. Gomez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey A. Gomez · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 9: 1-1-4 · Dist 7: 1-1-4 · best fig at 5½f dirt 71 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -11L	64	32-1	b L	Slow early; improved
9/23	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/5 -8L	54	3.5-1	b L	Even finish mid track
9/13	MNR	5½f D	MCL 4k	Won/6 by 2	56	0.9-1	b L	Missed break gamely4w

Longshot #1 El Arracadas ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #8 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 24–73

Jockey L. Batista · Trainer S. Donjuan · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 3: 1-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 54 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/9 -14L	48	3.3-1	L	Faded to lane
10/7	BTP	5f D	MCL 7k	Won/3	73	1.0-1	L	Own pace; drove clear
9/26	BTP	6½f D	MSW	6th/7 -7L	53	14-1	L	Off slw;stlkd ins;fade

Case: Last out 7th/9 -14L in the Clm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 48-73-53. Best at today's distance 54. 1-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. S. Donjuan / L. Batista.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #8 · B #2, #7, #10 · C #1, #3, #5, #9

Angles: #3 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #4 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #8 Lone speed on early pace · #9 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75

R5 Mountaineer Park · Claiming $4,000

8:40 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $9,000 · 10 runners8:40 PM · 5½f Dirt · 10 runners

Official $9,000 · Claiming $4,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1El ArracadasRan 6thL. Batista · S. DonjuanBatista · DonjuanC48 73 53►↕@trip 5415-1Fair 15-17%► Steady48 73 53 ↕@trip 54C
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 24–73 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 73 53
Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Sergio Donjuan 24% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R2: Have A Happy 2-1, R3: Chiva Loca 2-1, R4: Divine Cross 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R3: Chiva Loca 2-1
CLASS DROP
Tops the field on speed figures, a 73 against 71 for the next best. Finished 7th in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 14 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 46 days ago
RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 1 here: 42 wins, 117 top-3 in 199 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n2x 7th/9 -14L 48 3.3-1 L Faded to lane
10/7 BTP 5f D MCL 7k Won/3 73 1.0-1 L Own pace; drove clear
9/26 BTP 6½f D MSW 6th/7 -7L 53 14-1 L Off slw;stlkd ins;fade

2Playground WarriorRan 5thJ. Tavares · B. DelongTavares · DelongB40 66 47▼▼-13↕@trip 6610-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1340 66 47 ↕@trip 66B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 40 66 47

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: As One Does 10-1 · Trainer R6: As One Does 10-1

CLASS DROP

Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last out was 9th, 15 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $10,000 claiming race at FPK.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	FPK	6f D	Clm 10k n2l	9th/9 -15L	40	21-1	b L	Outrun; no factor
9/19	FPK	5½f D	sOC20000n2l	4th/8 -2½L	66	26-1	b L	Chased inside;came out
9/1	FPK	6f D	sOC20000n2l	9th/9 -10L	47	9.8-1	b L	Showed little

3Blown Away▼Ran 8thA. Diaz · J. BairdDiaz · BairdC49 59 65▼▼-12@trip 4212-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1249 59 65@trip 42C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 42 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 59 65

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer J Michael Baird 24% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 27

Also today · Trainer R1: Beautriz 2-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Switches from turf to dirt. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5½ furlongs.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jun 28; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Angel I Diaz from post 3 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 20 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	MNR	7f T	Clm 10k n2x	6th/8 -9½L	49	5.0-1	b L	Stalked pace; faded
9/2	MNR	1m T	sAlw19950n3l	Won/5	59	0.8-1	b L	Set pace; driving;
8/17	MNR	6f D	sAlw19200n2l	Won/6	65	0.7-1	b L	Threatened; dug in

4Greatdayforhockey▼Ran 7thC. Oliveros · I. QuezadaOliveros · QuezadaA60 66 67▼-6≡@trip 662-1Fair 7-221%▼ Down -660 66 67 ≡@trip 66A▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 751

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 60–67 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 66 67

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Inocencio Quezada 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Heart Beats True 12-1, R2: Mary McGee 10-1, R2: Super Pachi 5-1, R8: Quistmer 2-1 · Trainer R8: Memphis Slim 15-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Trending the wrong way on speed, 67 to 66 to 60. Jockey switch: Brooke Bays last out, Charle Oliveros today.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Nov 1; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 4 here: 23 wins, 71 top-3 in 137 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	5f D	Clm 5k b	6th/7 -10L	60	12-1	b L	8 wide 1/4; no rally
9/25	BTP	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/5 -7L	66	7.1-1	b L	Back early;bid 1/4p;3w
9/4	BTP	6f D	Alw n3l	3rd/5 -4L	67	21-1	b L	4w; no closing bid

5IntervalRan 10thM. Vilchez · T. BoydVilchez · BoydC61 47 63▲+4@trip 5920-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +461 47 63@trip 59C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 47 63

Jockey Maikol Vilchez 19% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Terry L Boyd 18% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Eurcool 12-1, R4: Sweet Talia 10-1

0 for 4 at today's distance. A 63 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 23 (4F in :48.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Maikol Vilchez from post 5 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 40 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/9 -1½L	61	4.7-1	b L	Chaed pace; tired;
10/4	MNR	5f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -11L	47	34-1	b L	Never involved
9/13	MNR	5f D	Clm 10k n2x	2nd/10	63	13-1	b L	Dug in; just missed;

6Hidden FavorRan 3rdR. Dumont · J. LopezDumont · LopezA68 71 59▲+4@trip 626-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +468 71 59@trip 62A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 71 59

Jockey Reynaldo Dumont 14% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose E Lopez 26% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Le Griffon 7-2

Jose E Lopez takes over the training from Randy Bayley. Worked 4F in :48.60 on Apr 24, 3rd of 13 at the distance.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 113d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/9 -4½L	68	5.5-1	b L	Chased up for 2nd
9/28	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/7 -4L	71	19-1	b L	Stalked; even finish
9/16	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/7 -6L	59	5.1-1	b L	Mid move weakened;

7Judy ChopRan 4thR. Barrios · J. SilvaBarrios · SilvaB56 64 61▼-4≡@trip 643-1Fair 4-121%▼ Down -456 64 61 ≡@trip 64B2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 56–64 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 64 61

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-38 on dirt this meet (29%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Chizzy 6-1, R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R4: X Gene 12-1, R6: Dr Jack Flyer 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, this race: Crime Lord 7-1 +3 more

New trainer: Kevin Rice had it last time, Juan Pablo Silva now. Class relief: $6,250 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 104d ago

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 7 here: 19 wins, 48 top-3 in 140 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/6 -8½L	56	22-1	b L	No response; faded
9/30	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	4th/6 -6L	64	2.6-1	b L	Well placed; weakened;
9/15	PID	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	2nd/6	61	7.7-1	b L	Responded;outfinished

8Robert Lee▲LSRan 1stF. Garcia · C. LopezGarcia · LopezA68 61 66▲+3≡9-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +368 61 66 ≡A▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 61–68 · Last 3 figs 68 61 66

▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

Longshot read: 9-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey F Garcia 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Carlos A Lopez 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Salty Mama 20-1, R3: Tiptoetappin 15-1, R6: Brown Liquor Man 20-1, R7: Mi Amore 7-2 · Trainer R6: Brown Liquor Man 20-1

CLASS DROP3/5 board here

Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 126 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD F Garcia from post 8 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 21 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/9	68	2.1-1	L	Ceded grudgingly ins
9/30	MNR	7f T	Clm 10k n2x	5th/8 -7L	61	1.6-1	L	Pressed pace; wore out
9/22	MNR	6f D	Clm 10k n2x	3rd/8 by hd	66	6.0-1	L	Battled to wire inside

9Ticket to Paradise▼Ran 9thJ. Atherton · N. PessanhaAtherton · PessanhaC-11 53 52▼▼-62↕@trip 5720-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -62-11 53 52 ↕@trip 57C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -62 · ↕ Up-and-down figures -11–53 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs -11 53 52

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Jonathon R Atherton 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Ney Pessanha 14% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Brahmastra 9-1

0/4 board here

Beaten 16 lengths for 8th in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at MNR. Drops from $5,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 92 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	MNR	2f D	Clm 5k	8th/8 -16L	-11	46-1	b L	Fractious delay start
9/2	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/5 by hd	53	37-1	b L	Pressed pace; used up;
8/19	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	6th/6 -7L	52	9.6-1	b L	Chased pace; spent

10Crime Lord★Ran 2ndA. Gomez · J. SilvaGomez · SilvaB64 54 56▲▲+9@trip 717-1Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +964 54 56@trip 71B★ Best at the trip 713

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 54 56

★ Best at the trip 71

Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R4: Miss M M 7-1, R8: Standard Of Proof 12-1 · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, this race: Judy Chop 3-1 +3 more

★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

Gets a new rider, Alejandro Gomez replacing Juan Pablo Jr Silva. Was 9th of 9 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jun 21; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 10 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -11L	64	32-1	b L	Slow early; improved
9/23	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/5 -8L	54	3.5-1	b L	Even finish mid track
9/13	MNR	5½f D	MCL 4k	Won/6 by 2	56	0.9-1	b L	Missed break gamely4w

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Greatdayforhockey, finished 7th.

1st8Robert LeeWin$5.00Place$4.00Show$3.00Our #5

2nd10Crime LordWin—Place$8.80Show$4.60Our #3

3rd6Hidden FavorWin—Place—Show$3.60Our #4

4th7Judy ChopOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Claiming $4,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$9,000

Post

8:40 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 21%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.26

The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Greatdayforhockey (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 60 · 66 · 67. Backup is #7 Judy Chop at 3-1. Use #10 Crime Lord in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Robert Lee won (our #5) · top pick Greatdayforhockey ran 7th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (7th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
✗ Our top 3 finished 7th, 4th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 GREATDAYFORHOCKEY	7th
#2	#7 JUDY CHOP	4th
#3	#10 CRIME LORD	2nd
#4	#6 HIDDEN FAVOR	3rd
#5	#8 ROBERT LEE	1st

Actual finish

1st	#8 Robert Lee	our #5
2nd	#10 Crime Lord	our #3
3rd	#6 Hidden Favor	our #4
4th	#7 Judy Chop	our #2
5th	#2 Playground Warrior	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 GREATDAYFORHOCKEY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 GREATDAYFORHOCKEY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 26.1%).
#7 JUDY CHOP — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.6%).
#6 HIDDEN FAVOR — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 11.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Interval; pressure from #1 El Arracadas, #8 Robert Lee; the shape helps #6 Hidden Favor, #10 Crime Lord; and works against #1 El Arracadas, #2 Playground Warrior, #3 Blown Away.

Lead

5Interval961El Arracadas948Robert Lee923Blown Away912Playground Warrior839Ticket To Paradise

Press

7Judy Chop87

Stalk

4Greatdayforhockey72

6Hidden Favor9410Crime Lord69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Interval

El Arracadas

Robert Lee

Blown Away

Judy Chop

Playground Warrior

Greatdayforhockey

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hidden Favor

Crime Lord

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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5-8) $.50 WHEEL

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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