Pick sheet
Race 37:50 PM Md Sp Wt
5F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Chiva Loca, is 38% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
Top pick #6 Chiva Loca ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +7 ▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69 ▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey L. Batista · Trainer S. Donjuan · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5f dirt 53 · 14 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/18MNR5f DMSW5th/9 -11L536.2-1b LEvenly; lacked more
10/3BTP6f DMSW5th/6 -4L449.1-1bDuel 2p outs foe;faded
9/18BTP5½f DMSW4th/5 -½L555.5-1bDueled;faltered;lugged
Case: Last out 5th/9 -11L in the fMdSpWt at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 53-44-55. Best at today's distance 53. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. S. Donjuan / L. Batista.
Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.
Contender #1 Melly B. Good ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey J. Bracho · Trainer L. Ruberto · 11 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/21PID6f DMCL 25k6th/7 -9L5116-1bChased; faded
10/8PID1m DMSW6th/6 -12L4130-1bThrough early;
9/22PID1m DMSW4th/5 -8L454.5-1bStep slow;late int
Case: Last out 6th/7 -9L in the fMd25000 at PID. Last Brisnet figures 51-41-45. L. Ruberto / J. Bracho.
Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park.
Use #5 It's Yesenia ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -25 ★ Best at 5f dirt: 67 ↕ Up and down 33–67 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (33 vs 43) Last out 8th/9 -16L in the fMdSpWt at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 33-43-67. Best at today's distance 67. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / A. Gomez. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Jockey A. Gomez · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5f dirt 67 · 14 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/18MNR5f DMSW8th/9 -16L335.1-1LAlways outrun
6/16PID4½f DMSW6th/6 -6L4313-1Went even; no threat;
5/2TUP5f DOpnSpngFt47k4th/10 -12L6734-1Angled out; mild bid
Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #6 · B #7, #8, #9 · ? #2, #3, #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)
Angles: #1 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (33 vs 43) · #6 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #6 Lone speed on early pace · #7 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #8 Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #9 Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69

R3 Mountaineer Park · Maiden Special Weight

7:50 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Dirt · $19,000 · 8 runners (1 out)7:50 PM · 5f Dirt · 8 runners (1 out)

Official $19K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Melly B. Good▼Ran 2ndJ. Bracho · L. RubertoBracho · RubertoA51 41 45▲▲+83-1Fair 3-124%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best51 41 45A▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 692

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 51 41 45

    ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 69
    Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Louis V Ruberto 21% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rizz 3-1 · Trainer R1: Rizz 3-1
    Jky 12/38 from post 1

    Changes barns, from Kevin Rice to Louis V Ruberto. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 51 against a 69 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d ago
    RECORD Jose A Bracho from post 1 here: 12 wins, 20 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/21PID6f DMCL 25k6th/7 -9L5116-1bChased; faded
    10/8PID1m DMSW6th/6 -12L4130-1bThrough early;
    9/22PID1m DMSW4th/5 -8L454.5-1bStep slow;late int
  2. 2BinationalRan 8thL. Tapara · A. RobillardTapara · Robillard?12-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?

    Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Alysha Robillard 24% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Gamay 9-1, R2: Can't Argue That 12-1, R7: General Ginny 12-1, R8: Collectorate 3-1 · Trainer R8: Todo Fino 6-1

    Unraced so far; the pedigree is Flameaway out of Cairo Express. Worked 3F in :38.00 on Oct 7, 2nd fastest of 8 that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 25d back
    RECORD Luis Tapara from post 2 here: 8 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    First start. By Flameaway out of Cairo Express (Cairo Prince)
    Trainer A. Robillard: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 50% in the money (2 starts)
    Jockey L. Tapara in sprints: 20 wins from 135 (15%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/7MNR3f:38.00breezing2/8
    9/28MNR3f:38.00breezing2/6
  3. 3Monserrate O'sJ. Meza · J. PerezMeza · Perez?12-1<1%—Debut?

    Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier ?

    Jockey Jj Meza 12% career · Trainer Juan Carlos Perez 30% career

    Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 21). Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Core Beliefs and Zoology breeding.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Core Beliefs out of Zoology (Animal Kingdom)
    Trainer J. Perez: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 20% in the money (5 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 25% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 23% in the money (13 starts)
    Jockey J. Meza in sprints: 3 wins from 26 (12%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/21TTC4f:50.00breezing16/19from gate
    9/19DTT4f:51.40breezing5/5
    8/20DTT4f:50.00breezing2/2
    8/8DTT4f:48.80breezing1/2● bullet
    7/30DTT4f:50.60breezing1/2● bullet from gate
  4. 4ZenoviaRan 1stB. Weatherly · C. HerringtonWeatherly · Herrington?7-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?

    Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Cally Ann Herrington 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Zena Cat 7-1, R2: Sway Me Over 20-1, R4: Honestly 8-1, R6: Rose's Pepino 12-1 +1 more

    Unraced, with 8 works on record, the first on Aug 6. Debut for a Tacitus youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $5,000.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago
    RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 4 here: 18 wins, 67 top-3 in 143 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    First start. By Tacitus out of Big Time Delivery (Gemologist)
    Trainer C. Herrington: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (3 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (2 starts) · Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (6 starts)
    Jockey B. Weatherly in sprints: 27 wins from 261 (10%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/23PID4f:48.00breezing1/2● bullet
    10/7PID4f:52.20breezing10/13from gate
    10/1PID4f:50.80breezing7/10from gate
    9/24PID4f:50.80breezing12/14from gate
    9/15PID3f:38.00breezing2/3
  5. 5It's Yesenia▼★Ran 3rdA. Gomez · J. SilvaGomez · SilvaA33 43 67▼▼-25↕@trip 677-2Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -2533 43 67 ↕@trip 67A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (33 vs 43)★ Best at the trip 673

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–67 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 33 43 67

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (33 vs 43)★ Best at the trip 67
    Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Miss M M 7-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1, R8: Standard Of Proof 12-1 · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1 +3 more

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 67. Beaten 16 lengths for 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at MNR.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d back
    RECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 26 top-3 in 63 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18MNR5f DMSW8th/9 -16L335.1-1LAlways outrun
    6/16PID4½f DMSW6th/6 -6L4313-1Went even; no threat;
    5/2TUP5f DOpnSpngFt47k4th/10 -12L6734-1Angled out; mild bid
  6. 6Chiva Loca▼▲Ran 4thL. Batista · S. DonjuanBatista · DonjuanA53 44 55▲+7@trip 532-1Fair 8-538%▲ Up +753 44 55@trip 53A▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Lone speed on early pace1

    Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 44 55

    ▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Lone speed on early pace
    Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Sergio Donjuan 24% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R2: Have A Happy 2-1, R4: Divine Cross 3-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Last out was 5th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at MNR. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 11, in :48.00.

    PACE HELPS The only real early speed in the race, so the lead is there if it wants it. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 51d back)
    RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 6 here: 19 wins, 79 top-3 in 174 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18MNR5f DMSW5th/9 -11L536.2-1b LEvenly; lacked more
    10/3BTP6f DMSW5th/6 -4L449.1-1bDuel 2p outs foe;faded
    9/18BTP5½f DMSW4th/5 -½L555.5-1bDueled;faltered;lugged
  7. 7La Misteriosa▼Ran 5thR. Diaz · K. FernandezDiaz · FernandezB27 55 40▼▼-18↕@trip 4010-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1827 55 40 ↕@trip 40B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–55 · Best fig at today's trip 40 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 27 55 40

    ▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69
    Jockey R Diaz 33% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Kelly A Fernandez 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R8: Centsofwander 20-1

    Class relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden special weight today. Cuts back from a mile to 5 furlongs.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 169 days ago
    RECORD R Diaz from post 7 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 15 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6IND1m DMCL 20k7th/8 -13L2748-1No factor
    9/7KD1m TMSW9th/11 -10L55124-1Settled;no factor
    8/27BTP5f DMSW5th/6 -6¾L4062-1Off slow;swung 5p 3/16
  8. 8Halo Nashry▼Ran 7thK. Gonzalez · J. JohnsonGonzalez · JohnsonB39@trip 3920-1Fair 30-13%—39@trip 39B▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 69

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 39 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 39

    ▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 69
    Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jennifer A Johnson 31% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Vai Gattina 10-1, R1: Slush Fund 12-1, R4: Vingativa 15-1, R7: Dialed Inna 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Slush Fund 12-1

    Finished 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at MNR, beaten 15 lengths. Best recent figure is 39, well under the 69 par for this level.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 27d ago
    RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 8 here: 13 wins, 54 top-3 in 132 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18MNR5f DMSW7th/9 -15L3965-1Never involved
  9. 9Tiptoetappin▼Ran 6thF. Garcia · G. ViandsGarcia · ViandsB40 48 41▼-4@trip 4815-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -440 48 41@trip 48B▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 48 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 40 48 41

    ▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69
    Jockey F Garcia 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Gregory Viands 27% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Salty Mama 20-1, R5: Robert Lee 9-1, R6: Brown Liquor Man 20-1, R7: Mi Amore 7-2

    3rd of 9 at 3F on Aug 5, in :36.20. Best recent figure is 48, well under the 69 par for this level.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 47 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/5PID5½f DMCL 25k5th/6 -8L407.7-1Went evenly; no menace
    9/27MNR5f DMSW4th/9 -12L4829-1Slow early; no factor;
    9/17CT4½f DMSW6th/7 -11L4123-1Slow start; no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Chiva Loca, finished 4th.

1st4ZenoviaWin$20.80Place$8.80Show$5.40Our #4
2nd1Melly B. GoodWin—Place$3.60Show$2.60Our #2
3rd5It's YeseniaWin—Place—Show$3.80Our #3
4th6Chiva LocaOur #1
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field
9 runners
Purse
$19,000
Post
7:50 PM ET
Pace
Wire-To-Wire Likely
Card model top pick
#6 · 38%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.92

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Chiva Loca (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 53 · 44 · 55. Backup is #1 Melly B. Good at 3-1. Use #5 It's Yesenia in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Zenovia won (our #4) · top pick Chiva Loca ran 4th

What worked

  • ✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 2nd, 3rd

What didn't

  • ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
  • ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1#6 CHIVA LOCA4th
#2#1 MELLY B. GOOD2nd
#3#5 IT'S YESENIA3rd
#4#4 ZENOVIA1st
#5#2 BINATIONAL8th

Actual finish

1st#4 Zenoviaour #4
2nd#1 Melly B. Goodour #2
3rd#5 It's Yeseniaour #3
4th#6 Chiva Locaour #1
5th#7 La Misteriosaour #6
At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 CHIVA LOCA (2-1) — our number agrees.
  • #6 CHIVA LOCA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 25.9%).
  • #1 MELLY B. GOOD — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 19.4%).
  • #5 IT'S YESENIA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.

Likely leader: #6 Chiva Loca; the shape helps #6 Chiva Loca; and works against #1 Melly B. Good, #2 Binational, #3 Monserrate O's.

Lead
6Chiva Loca74
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Melly B. Good849Tiptoetappin718Halo Nashry685It's Yesenia677La Misteriosa622Binational3Monserrate O's4Zenovia

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

6
Chiva Loca
74

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
It's Yesenia
23
6
Chiva Loca
23
8
Halo Nashry
23
7
La Misteriosa
20
9
Tiptoetappin
18
1
Melly B. Good
11
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