| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/18 | MNR | 5f D | MSW | 5th/9 -11L | 53 | 6.2-1 | b L | Evenly; lacked more |
| 10/3 | BTP | 6f D | MSW | 5th/6 -4L | 44 | 9.1-1 | b | Duel 2p outs foe;faded |
| 9/18 | BTP | 5½f D | MSW | 4th/5 -½L | 55 | 5.5-1 | b | Dueled;faltered;lugged |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/21 | PID | 6f D | MCL 25k | 6th/7 -9L | 51 | 16-1 | b | Chased; faded |
| 10/8 | PID | 1m D | MSW | 6th/6 -12L | 41 | 30-1 | b | Through early; |
| 9/22 | PID | 1m D | MSW | 4th/5 -8L | 45 | 4.5-1 | b | Step slow;late int |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/18 | MNR | 5f D | MSW | 8th/9 -16L | 33 | 5.1-1 | L | Always outrun |
| 6/16 | PID | 4½f D | MSW | 6th/6 -6L | 43 | 13-1 | Went even; no threat; | |
| 5/2 | TUP | 5f D | OpnSpngFt47k | 4th/10 -12L | 67 | 34-1 | Angled out; mild bid |
1Melly B. Good▼Ran 2ndJ. Bracho · L. RubertoBracho · RubertoA51 41 45▲▲+83-1Fair 3-124%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best51 41 45A▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 692Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 51 41 45
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Louis V Ruberto 21% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetJky 12/38 from post 1Changes barns, from Kevin Rice to Louis V Ruberto. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 51 against a 69 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d agoRECORD Jose A Bracho from post 1 here: 12 wins, 20 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/21 PID 6f D MCL 25k 6th/7 -9L 51 16-1 b Chased; faded 10/8 PID 1m D MSW 6th/6 -12L 41 30-1 b Through early; 9/22 PID 1m D MSW 4th/5 -8L 45 4.5-1 b Step slow;late int 2BinationalRan 8thL. Tapara · A. RobillardTapara · Robillard?12-1Fair 20-15%
—Debut?Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Alysha Robillard 24% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Gamay 9-1, R2: Can't Argue That 12-1, R7: General Ginny 12-1, R8: Collectorate 3-1 · Trainer R8: Todo Fino 6-1Unraced so far; the pedigree is Flameaway out of Cairo Express. Worked 3F in :38.00 on Oct 7, 2nd fastest of 8 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 25d backRECORD Luis Tapara from post 2 here: 8 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Flameaway out of Cairo Express (Cairo Prince)Trainer A. Robillard: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 50% in the money (2 starts)Jockey L. Tapara in sprints: 20 wins from 135 (15%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/7 MNR 3f :38.00 breezing 2/8 9/28 MNR 3f :38.00 breezing 2/6 3Monserrate O'sJ. Meza · J. PerezMeza · Perez?12-1<1%
—Debut?Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier ?
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 21). Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Core Beliefs and Zoology breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 11d agoLast three races
First start. By Core Beliefs out of Zoology (Animal Kingdom)Trainer J. Perez: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 20% in the money (5 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 25% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 23% in the money (13 starts)Jockey J. Meza in sprints: 3 wins from 26 (12%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/21 TTC 4f :50.00 breezing 16/19 from gate 9/19 DTT 4f :51.40 breezing 5/5 8/20 DTT 4f :50.00 breezing 2/2 8/8 DTT 4f :48.80 breezing 1/2 ● bullet 7/30 DTT 4f :50.60 breezing 1/2 ● bullet from gate 4ZenoviaRan 1stB. Weatherly · C. HerringtonWeatherly · Herrington?7-1Fair 12-17%
—Debut?Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Cally Ann Herrington 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Zena Cat 7-1, R2: Sway Me Over 20-1, R4: Honestly 8-1, R6: Rose's Pepino 12-1 +1 moreUnraced, with 8 works on record, the first on Aug 6. Debut for a Tacitus youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $5,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d agoRECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 4 here: 18 wins, 67 top-3 in 143 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Tacitus out of Big Time Delivery (Gemologist)Trainer C. Herrington: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (3 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (2 starts) · Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (6 starts)Jockey B. Weatherly in sprints: 27 wins from 261 (10%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 PID 4f :48.00 breezing 1/2 ● bullet 10/7 PID 4f :52.20 breezing 10/13 from gate 10/1 PID 4f :50.80 breezing 7/10 from gate 9/24 PID 4f :50.80 breezing 12/14 from gate 9/15 PID 3f :38.00 breezing 2/3 5It's Yesenia▼★Ran 3rdA. Gomez · J. SilvaGomez · SilvaA33 43 67▼▼-25↕@trip 677-2Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -2533 43 67 ↕@trip 67A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (33 vs 43)★ Best at the trip 673Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–67 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 33 43 67
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (33 vs 43)★ Best at the trip 67Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)Also today · Jockey R4: Miss M M 7-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1, R8: Standard Of Proof 12-1 · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1 +3 moreOwns the highest recent figure here at 67. Beaten 16 lengths for 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at MNR.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d backRECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 26 top-3 in 63 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 MNR 5f D MSW 8th/9 -16L 33 5.1-1 L Always outrun 6/16 PID 4½f D MSW 6th/6 -6L 43 13-1 Went even; no threat; 5/2 TUP 5f D OpnSpngFt47k 4th/10 -12L 67 34-1 Angled out; mild bid 6Chiva Loca▼▲Ran 4thL. Batista · S. DonjuanBatista · DonjuanA53 44 55▲+7@trip 532-1Fair 8-538%
▲ Up +753 44 55@trip 53A▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Lone speed on early pace1Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 44 55
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Sergio Donjuan 24% careerAlso today · Jockey R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R2: Have A Happy 2-1, R4: Divine Cross 3-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1★ FASTEST WORKLast out was 5th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at MNR. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 11, in :48.00.
PACE HELPS The only real early speed in the race, so the lead is there if it wants it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 51d back)RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 6 here: 19 wins, 79 top-3 in 174 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 MNR 5f D MSW 5th/9 -11L 53 6.2-1 b L Evenly; lacked more 10/3 BTP 6f D MSW 5th/6 -4L 44 9.1-1 b Duel 2p outs foe;faded 9/18 BTP 5½f D MSW 4th/5 -½L 55 5.5-1 b Dueled;faltered;lugged 7La Misteriosa▼Ran 5thR. Diaz · K. FernandezDiaz · FernandezB27 55 40▼▼-18↕@trip 4010-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -1827 55 40 ↕@trip 40B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–55 · Best fig at today's trip 40 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 27 55 40
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey R Diaz 33% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Kelly A Fernandez 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetClass relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden special weight today. Cuts back from a mile to 5 furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 169 days agoRECORD R Diaz from post 7 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 15 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 IND 1m D MCL 20k 7th/8 -13L 27 48-1 No factor 9/7 KD 1m T MSW 9th/11 -10L 55 124-1 Settled;no factor 8/27 BTP 5f D MSW 5th/6 -6¾L 40 62-1 Off slow;swung 5p 3/16 8Halo Nashry▼Ran 7thK. Gonzalez · J. JohnsonGonzalez · JohnsonB39@trip 3920-1Fair 30-13%
—39@trip 39B▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 39 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 39
▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jennifer A Johnson 31% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Vai Gattina 10-1, R1: Slush Fund 12-1, R4: Vingativa 15-1, R7: Dialed Inna 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Slush Fund 12-1Finished 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at MNR, beaten 15 lengths. Best recent figure is 39, well under the 69 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 27d agoRECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 8 here: 13 wins, 54 top-3 in 132 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 MNR 5f D MSW 7th/9 -15L 39 65-1 Never involved 9Tiptoetappin▼Ran 6thF. Garcia · G. ViandsGarcia · ViandsB40 48 41▼-4@trip 4815-1Fair 30-14%
▼ Down -440 48 41@trip 48B▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 48 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 40 48 41
▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey F Garcia 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Gregory Viands 27% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Salty Mama 20-1, R5: Robert Lee 9-1, R6: Brown Liquor Man 20-1, R7: Mi Amore 7-23rd of 9 at 3F on Aug 5, in :36.20. Best recent figure is 48, well under the 69 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 47 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/5 PID 5½f D MCL 25k 5th/6 -8L 40 7.7-1 Went evenly; no menace 9/27 MNR 5f D MSW 4th/9 -12L 48 29-1 Slow early; no factor; 9/17 CT 4½f D MSW 6th/7 -11L 41 23-1 Slow start; no threat
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #6 Chiva Loca, finished 4th.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 3
OFFICIALMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.92
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Chiva Loca (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 53 · 44 · 55. Backup is #1 Melly B. Good at 3-1. Use #5 It's Yesenia in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · OUT
Zenovia won (our #4) · top pick Chiva Loca ran 4th
What worked
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 2nd, 3rd
What didn't
- ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #6 CHIVA LOCA | 4th |
| #2 | #1 MELLY B. GOOD | 2nd |
| #3 | #5 IT'S YESENIA | 3rd |
| #4 | #4 ZENOVIA | 1st |
| #5 | #2 BINATIONAL | 8th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #4 Zenovia | our #4 |
| 2nd | #1 Melly B. Good | our #2 |
| 3rd | #5 It's Yesenia | our #3 |
| 4th | #6 Chiva Loca | our #1 |
| 5th | #7 La Misteriosa | our #6 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 CHIVA LOCA (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 CHIVA LOCA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 25.9%).
- #1 MELLY B. GOOD — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 19.4%).
- #5 IT'S YESENIA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.
Likely leader: #6 Chiva Loca; the shape helps #6 Chiva Loca; and works against #1 Melly B. Good, #2 Binational, #3 Monserrate O's.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1
SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX
BET OPTIONS
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