Pick sheet

Race 89:55 PM OClm 10000

6F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Collectorate, is 21% to win (morning line implies 19%). Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Collectorate ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ► Steady Blinkers off

Jockey L. Tapara · Trainer J. Flick · KEE 12: 3-1-3 · Dist 17: 3-3-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	2nd/9 -1L	76	36-1	b L	Gained place
7/5	MNR	1m D	OC 10k	4th/5 -1½L	63	5.2-1	b L	Passed turn; faded
6/16	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	3rd/8 -5½L	77	5.2-1	b L	Lugged in; late gain

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC10000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 76-63-77. Best at today's distance 84. 3-for-17 at the distance. 3-for-12 at Mountaineer Park. J. Flick / L. Tapara.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #12 Johnnyfrenchfri ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +4 ≡ Steady 76–81

Jockey L. Negron · Trainer E. Clouston · KEE 4: 1-2-1 · Dist 13: 2-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 11 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	MVR	6f D	Alw s	4th/6 -2½L	81	3.3-1	b L	Bid btwn; outfinished
10/4	MNR	5f D	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -3L	76	2.4-1	b L	Bumped crowded wire
9/16	MNR	5f D	OC 15k n1x	2nd/7 -3L	79	6.1-1	b L	Extended bid save 2d

Case: Last out 4th/6 -2½L in the Alw8000s at MVR. Last Brisnet figures 81-76-79. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-13 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Mountaineer Park. E. Clouston / L. Negron.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #11 Juba's Notion ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -16 ↕ Up and down 66–97 Last out 7th/10 -7½L in the sWVOnJcBCl75k at CT. Last Brisnet figures 66-97-81. 0-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. V. Peltroche / F. Peltroche. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey F. Peltroche · Trainer V. Peltroche · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVOnJcBCl75k	7th/10 -7½L	66	15-1	b L	Vied inside;wilted
8/22	CT	7f D	OC 10k	Won/6	97	1.9-1	b L	Vie ins;clr1/4;handily
7/25	CT	7f D	sOC10000	Won/7	81	2.4-1	b L	Dictated tempo;driving

Longshot #9 Hoylake ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ► Steady ≡ Steady 77–85 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey R. Barrios · Trainer D. Treharne · KEE 9: 4-2-2 · Dist 12: 2-2-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 82 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	MNR	6f D	RHP 40-60	3rd/5 -3L	82	4.6-1	b L	Weakened
9/16	MNR	5½f D	Clm 5k	3rd/5 -4L	77	1.2-1	b L	Tracked; bid willingly
8/18	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/8 by hd	85	1.8-1	b L	Drew clear mid track

Case: Last out 3rd in the RHP 40-60 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 82-77-85. Best at today's distance 82. 2-for-12 at the distance. 4-for-9 at Mountaineer Park. D. Treharne / R. Barrios.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #11, #12 · B #6, #9, #10 · C #1, #2, #3, #4, #7, #8

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 Last fig 86 at/above par 85 · #7 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #8 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #9 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #10 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R8 Mountaineer Park · Optional Claiming $10,000

9:55 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $15,500 · 12 runners9:55 PM · 6f Dirt · 12 runners

Upcoming $16K · Optional Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Law of the Jungle▼H. Haldar · J. CastilloHaldar · CastilloC73 84 80▲+5↕@trip 8020-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +573 84 80 ↕@trip 80C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–84 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 84 80

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Humberto Haldar 27% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jabdiel Castillo 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Pasta Salad Rhonda 6-1, R7: Lamporghini 10-1 · Trainer R4: Pasta Salad Rhonda 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

A step up in company: $3,200 claiming before, optional claiming today. New trainer: Ivan Calderon had it last time, Jabdiel Castillo now.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 29 (5F in 1:01.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k n3x	4th/8 -¾L	73	3.1-1	b L	Inside bid
8/3	MNR	5½f D	Clm 3k n2y	Won/6 by ½	84	4.4-1	b L	Surged up on the rail
7/21	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/9	80	5.7-1	b L	Led held firm inside

2Pure PanicB. Weatherly · C. GodseyWeatherly · GodseyC73 72 75▼-5@trip 869-1Fair 10-18%▼ Down -573 72 75@trip 86C
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 72 75
Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer C Marshall Godsey 16% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Zena Cat 7-1, R2: Sway Me Over 20-1, R3: Zenovia 7-1, R4: Honestly 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Zena Cat 7-1
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here
Last start: 3rd in a 9-horse optional claiming race at MNR. Best recent figure of 86 sits right around the 85 par.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 9; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 2 here: 24 wins, 78 top-3 in 152 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 6f D OC 10k 3rd/9 73 6.6-1 L Held show
9/20 MNR 5½f D Clm 12k b 3rd/9 -1½L 72 4.6-1 L Pressed 3deep short
8/19 MNR 6f D Alw n2y 5th/5 -5½L 75 6.1-1 L Early speed gave way;
3Todo FinoK. Gonzalez · A. RobillardGonzalez · RobillardC72 65 83►@trip 876-1Fair 8-111%► Steady72 65 83@trip 87C
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 65 83
Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Alysha Robillard 24% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Vai Gattina 10-1, R1: Slush Fund 12-1, R3: Halo Nashry 20-1, R4: Vingativa 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Binational 12-1
CLASS UP
8 wins from 14 starts at this distance. Drops from optional claiming to optional claiming.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 3 here: 19 wins, 71 top-3 in 201 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 FE 6f D OC 12k 4th/5 -1L 72 1.9-1 L 5-p str; leveled off
9/29 MNR 7f T OC 7k 9th/9 -8½L 65 7.5-1 L Pressed pace; spent
9/14 MNR 6f D OC 12k Won/7 83 1.8-1 L Bid 4deep turn gamely;
4Standard of ProofA. Gomez · J. SilvaGomez · SilvaC73 66 82►@trip 8712-1Fair 20-15%► Steady73 66 82@trip 87C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 66 82
Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R4: Miss M M 7-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1 · Trainer R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R2: Snookie Jones 4-1, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R5: Judy Chop 3-1 +3 more
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKJky 9/50 from post 4
Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Jul 7, in :48.60.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 7 (4F in :48.60), 0 works in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 4 here: 9 wins, 19 top-3 in 50 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 6f D OC 10k 4th/9 -6¼L 73 9.4-1 L Wide trip
9/22 MNR 6f D OC 15k n1x 6th/7 -13L 66 2.9-1 L Played no factor
9/14 MNR 6f D OC 12k 2nd/7 -3L 82 5.4-1 L Surged 5 wide late
5Quistmer▲C. Oliveros · J. AguirreOliveros · AguirreA86 79 81▲+6≡@trip 812-1<1%▲ Up +6 · career best86 79 81 ≡@trip 81A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 85
Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 79–86 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 79 81
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 85
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Juan R Aguirre 22% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Heart Beats True 12-1, R2: Mary McGee 10-1, R2: Super Pachi 5-1, R5: Greatdayforhockey 2-1
WON LAST5/6 board here
Winner of a 6-horse allowance race at MNR last time. Has won 3 of 4 going today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.60 on Mar 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 5 here: 17 wins, 67 top-3 in 151 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 MNR 5½f D Alw s Won/6 86 3.4-1 L Angled out top lane
9/22 MNR 6f D ROC 15-30c Won/5 79 0.8-1 L Set pace; had more
9/8 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n2xc Won/7 81 1.2-1 L Driving
6CollectorateL. Tapara · J. FlickTapara · FlickB76 63 77►@trip 843-1Fair 7-221%► Steady76 63 77@trip 84B1
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 84 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 63 77
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Julia Flick 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Gamay 9-1, R2: Can't Argue That 12-1, R3: Binational 12-1, R7: General Ginny 12-1
3/4 board here
2nd of 6 at 4F on Sep 25, in :49.00. An 81 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.60 on Aug 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Luis Tapara from post 6 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 75 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 6f D OC 10k 2nd/9 -1L 76 36-1 b L Gained place
7/5 MNR 1m D OC 10k 4th/5 -1½L 63 5.2-1 b L Passed turn; faded
6/16 MNR 6f D OC 10k 3rd/8 -5½L 77 5.2-1 b L Lugged in; late gain
7Memphis Slim▼D. Parker · I. QuezadaParker · QuezadaC64 74 62▲+5↕@trip 7615-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +564 74 62 ↕@trip 76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–74 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 74 62
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Inocencio Quezada 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Itza Kitty 15-1, R6: Easy Fast 2-1 · Trainer R5: Greatdayforhockey 2-1
Inocencio Quezada takes over the training from Timothy Locker. Raises its level, $6,250 claiming last time and optional claiming now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Nov 14; 0 works in 30d
RECORD D L Parker from post 7 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 39 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BTP 6f D Clm 6k 5th/5 by hd 64 2.3-1 L Ins speed;gave way
9/19 BTP 6f D Clm 5k b Won/6 74 3.5-1 L Ins-2w;repelled foe
8/14 BTP 6f D Clm 5k bv 4th/5 -1½L 62 1.6-1 L Stmbld;track 2w;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	3rd/9	73	6.6-1	L	Held show
9/20	MNR	5½f D	Clm 12k b	3rd/9 -1½L	72	4.6-1	L	Pressed 3deep short
8/19	MNR	6f D	Alw n2y	5th/5 -5½L	75	6.1-1	L	Early speed gave way;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	FE	6f D	OC 12k	4th/5 -1L	72	1.9-1	L	5-p str; leveled off
9/29	MNR	7f T	OC 7k	9th/9 -8½L	65	7.5-1	L	Pressed pace; spent
9/14	MNR	6f D	OC 12k	Won/7	83	1.8-1	L	Bid 4deep turn gamely;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	4th/9 -6¼L	73	9.4-1	L	Wide trip
9/22	MNR	6f D	OC 15k n1x	6th/7 -13L	66	2.9-1	L	Played no factor
9/14	MNR	6f D	OC 12k	2nd/7 -3L	82	5.4-1	L	Surged 5 wide late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	5½f D	Alw s	Won/6	86	3.4-1	L	Angled out top lane
9/22	MNR	6f D	ROC 15-30c	Won/5	79	0.8-1	L	Set pace; had more
9/8	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2xc	Won/7	81	1.2-1	L	Driving

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BTP	6f D	Clm 6k	5th/5 by hd	64	2.3-1	L	Ins speed;gave way
9/19	BTP	6f D	Clm 5k b	Won/6	74	3.5-1	L	Ins-2w;repelled foe
8/14	BTP	6f D	Clm 5k bv	4th/5 -1½L	62	1.6-1	L	Stmbld;track 2w;wknd

8Centsofwander▼R. Diaz · J. FletcherDiaz · FletcherC72 68 76►≡@trip 6820-1<1%► Steady72 68 76 ≡@trip 68C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 85

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 68 76

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 85

Jockey R Diaz 33% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jeff Fletcher 26% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: La Misteriosa 10-1 · Trainer this race: Dropkick Murphy 7-1

10/15 board here

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 188d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 10 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	1m T	Clm 4k n1l	3rd/9 -4L	72	7.4-1	b L	Mild rally outbid rest
9/21	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	4th/10 -7L	68	16-1	b L	Passed a few lane
8/26	MNR	1m D	ROC 20-40	Won/6 by 3	76	4.8-1	b L	Extended up late

9Hoylake▼LSR. Barrios · D. TreharneBarrios · TreharneB82 77 85►≡@trip 8210-1Fair 10-19%► Steady82 77 85 ≡@trip 82B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–85 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 77 85

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-38 on dirt this meet (29%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Dave Treharne 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Chizzy 6-1, R2: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R4: X Gene 12-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Divine Cross 3-1

5/6 board here

Best recent figure of 85 sits right around the 85 par. Worked 3F in :36.60 on Aug 4, 2nd of 7 at the distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 89 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 9 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 69 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	MNR	6f D	RHP 40-60	3rd/5 -3L	82	4.6-1	b L	Weakened
9/16	MNR	5½f D	Clm 5k	3rd/5 -4L	77	1.2-1	b L	Tracked; bid willingly
8/18	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/8 by hd	85	1.8-1	b L	Drew clear mid track

10Dropkick Murphy▼Y. Yaranga · J. FletcherYaranga · FletcherB76 76 82▼-3≡@trip 767-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -376 76 82 ≡@trip 76B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–82 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 76 82
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-34 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jeff Fletcher 26% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Lucky Phoenix 20-1 · Trainer this race: Centsofwander 20-1
60D LAYOFF5/8 board here
Switches from turf to dirt. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 197d back)
RECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here
RECORD Y Yaranga from post 10 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 30 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/1 MNR 5f T OC 12k 4th/8 -3L 76 3.2-1 b L Chased; weakened;
8/19 MNR 6f D Alw n2y 4th/5 -2L 76 12-1 b L Chased to lane; faded
8/3 MNR 5f D OC 12k 2nd/4 -2L 82 1.4-1 b L Pressed; no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/1	MNR	5f T	OC 12k	4th/8 -3L	76	3.2-1	b L	Chased; weakened;
8/19	MNR	6f D	Alw n2y	4th/5 -2L	76	12-1	b L	Chased to lane; faded
8/3	MNR	5f D	OC 12k	2nd/4 -2L	82	1.4-1	b L	Pressed; no match

11Juba's NotionF. Peltroche · V. PeltrochePeltroche · PeltrocheA66 97 81▼▼-16↕5-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -1666 97 81 ↕A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–97 · Last 3 figs 66 97 81

Jockey F Peltroche 28% career · Trainer Vanessa Peltroche 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $15,500 today after a $75,000 race last time. Owns the highest recent figure here at 97.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on May 8; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVOnJcBCl75k	7th/10 -7½L	66	15-1	b L	Vied inside;wilted
8/22	CT	7f D	OC 10k	Won/6	97	1.9-1	b L	Vie ins;clr1/4;handily
7/25	CT	7f D	sOC10000	Won/7	81	2.4-1	b L	Dictated tempo;driving

12JohnnyfrenchfriL. Negron · E. CloustonNegron · CloustonA81 76 79▲+4≡@trip 833-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +481 76 79 ≡@trip 83A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 76–81 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 76 79

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Edward Clouston 36% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: American Of Course 2-1, R7: Breezy Dance 20-1

4/4 board here

Gets a new rider, Luis Negron replacing Luis Alberto Batista. 4th last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 6.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 117d back)

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Luis Negron from post 12 here: 1 win, 1 top-3 in 15 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	MVR	6f D	Alw s	4th/6 -2½L	81	3.3-1	b L	Bid btwn; outfinished
10/4	MNR	5f D	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -3L	76	2.4-1	b L	Bumped crowded wire
9/16	MNR	5f D	OC 15k n1x	2nd/7 -3L	79	6.1-1	b L	Extended bid save 2d

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $10,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$15,500

Post

9:55 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 21%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Collectorate (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 76 · 63 · 77. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #12 Johnnyfrenchfri at 3-1. Use #11 Juba's Notion in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 QUISTMER (2-1) — our number has it ranked #12.
#6 COLLECTORATE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.9%, they've got 14.8%.
#12 JOHNNYFRENCHFRI — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.9%, they've got 14.8%.
#11 JUBA'S NOTION — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 12.3%, the board 9.8%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#6 COLLECTORATE — we make it 19.9%, the morning line works out to 14.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#12 JOHNNYFRENCHFRI — we make it 19.9%, the morning line works out to 14.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 HOYLAKE (10-1) — our fair 7.6% is above the morning line's 5.4%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #11 Juba's Notion; pressure from #2 Pure Panic, #5 Quistmer; and works against #2 Pure Panic, #5 Quistmer, #7 Memphis Slim.

Lead

11Juba's Notion992Pure Panic985Quistmer917Memphis Slim88

Press

9Hoylake976Collectorate9210Dropkick Murphy9212Johnnyfrenchfri891Law Of The Jungle83

Stalk

4Standard Of Proof883Todo Fino848Centsofwander74

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Juba's Notion

Pure Panic

Hoylake

Collectorate

Dropkick Murphy

Quistmer

Johnnyfrenchfri

Standard Of Proof

Memphis Slim

Todo Fino

Law Of The Jungle

Centsofwander

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Johnnyfrenchfri

Law Of The Jungle

Pure Panic

Standard Of Proof

Collectorate

Hoylake

Quistmer

Juba's Notion

Todo Fino

Centsofwander

Memphis Slim

Dropkick Murphy

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Bet types

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