Pick sheet

Race 27:25 PM Md 15000

5F · Turf · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Have a Happy, is 25% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Have a Happy ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 · career best ≡ Steady 56–65 ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey L. Batista · Trainer J. Gotera · Dist 4: 0-1-0 · best fig at 5f turf 65 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	MTH	5f T	MCL 16k	2nd/10 -3L	65	11-1	b L	Behind 5/16; rallied
8/16	MTH	-5½f T	fsMdSpWt	5th/8 -7L	56	34-1	b L	Steady 1/2; btwn 1/4
7/5	MNR	6f D	MSW	3rd/9 -6L	63	9.7-1	b L	Chased wore down

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMd16000 at MTH. Last Brisnet figures 65-56-63. Best at today's distance 65. 0-for-4 at the distance. J. Gotera / L. Batista.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #4 Blue Ice ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3

Jockey A. Ramgeet · Trainer T. Ramgeet · Dist 5: 0-1-1 · best fig at 5f turf 62 · 12 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	6f D	MCL 15k	2nd/9 -½L	56	2.7-1	b L	Hooked; saved place
9/28	MNR	6f D	MCL 4kc	4th/9 -6L	51	0.9-1	b L	Chased weakened wide
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	frMd16000	6th/10 -6¾L	64	5.6-1	b L	Stalked 3w; weakened

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMd15000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 56-51-64. Best at today's distance 62. 0-for-5 at the distance. T. Ramgeet / A. Ramgeet.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. 0-for-5 at the distance.

Use #8 Chizzy ML 6-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -11 ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70 Last out 5th/9 in the fMd25000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 47-55. Best at today's distance 64. 0-for-2 at the distance. V. Demczyk / R. Barrios. Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey R. Barrios · Trainer V. Demczyk · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5f turf 64 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5f D	MCL 25k	5th/9	47	3.3-1	b L	Set pace; spent late
9/21	MNR	5½f D	MSW	DNF	—	26-1	b L	Flashed speed; eased
8/14	DEL	-5f T	MCL 16k	6th/7 -1½L	55	5.9-1	b L	3wd; gave way

Longshot #7 Can't Argue That ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -46 ↕ Up and down 5–57 ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey L. Tapara · Trainer J. Robillard · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6f D	MCL 7k	9th/10 -16L	5	12-1	b L	Brief press; drop back
9/28	FE	5½f D	MSW	2nd/6	57	1.4-1	b L	3p str; failed to hold
8/30	FE	6f D	MSW	5th/7 -2L	54	6.6-1	L	Set pace; gave way

Case: Last out 9th/10 -16L in the fMd7500 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 5-57-54. Best at today's distance 64. J. Robillard / L. Tapara.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #13 · B #8, #12, #14 · C #2, #5, #6, #7, #9, #10, #11 · ? #1 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #3 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #5 Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #7 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #8 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #9 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #10 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #11 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #12 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #13 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #14 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 70

R2 Mountaineer Park · Maiden Claiming $15,000

7:25 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $13,500 · 10 runners (4 out)7:25 PM · 5f Turf · 10 runners (4 out)

Official $14K · Maiden Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sway Me OverRan 1stB. Weatherly · M. CuttinoWeatherly · Cuttino?20-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Marion L Cuttino 32% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Zena Cat 7-1, R3: Zenovia 7-1, R4: Honestly 8-1, R6: Rose's Pepino 12-1 +1 more

Jky 28/139 from post 1

Debut for this Protonico filly, whose dam is Sway My Way. The Sep 28 work, 4F in :50.40, was the fastest at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :50.40 on Sep 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 1 here: 28 wins, 82 top-3 in 139 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

First start. By Protonico out of Sway My Way (Temple City)

Trainer M. Cuttino: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 18% in the money (17 starts)

Jockey B. Weatherly in turf: 4 wins from 49 (8%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	MNR	4f	:51.00	breezing	3/7
10/7	MNR	4f	:50.00	breezing	1/2	● bullet from gate
9/28	MNR	4f	:50.40	breezing	1/5	● bullet from gate
9/16	MNR	4f	:51.40	breezing	10/13
9/9	MNR	4f	:53.20	breezing	10/11	from gate

2Gorda▼Ran 4thJ. Leon · R. InmanLeon · InmanC37 45 57▼▼-1115-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1137 45 57C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 70
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 37 45 57
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Robert L Inman 21% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Cole's Valentine 10-1, this race: Snookie Jones 4-1, R6: Golden Bandit 3-1 · Trainer R6: Rose's Pepino 12-1
CLASS UP
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Class relief: maiden claiming $25,000 last time, maiden claiming $15,000 today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 40d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here
RECORD Jose A Leon from post 2 here: 5 wins, 25 top-3 in 74 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 MNR 5f D MCL 25k 8th/9 -7½L 37 15-1 L Evenly; faded lane
10/5 PID 6f D MCL 7k 5th/6 -9L 45 11-1 L One-paced; no threat
8/19 MNR 6f D MCL 15k 3rd/6 -4½L 57 9.3-1 L Evenly; best others
3Have a Happy▼Ran 3rdL. Batista · J. GoteraBatista · GoteraA65 56 63▲+5≡@trip 652-1Fair 3-125%▲ Up +5 · career best65 56 63 ≡@trip 65A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 701
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 56–65 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 56 63
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career ★ 4-for-20 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Carlos Gotera 15% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Light My Flame 10-1, R3: Chiva Loca 2-1, R4: Divine Cross 3-1, R5: El Arracadas 15-1 +1 more
Last out was 2nd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $14,000 race at MTH. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 98d back)
RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 3 here: 23 wins, 80 top-3 in 161 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 MTH 5f T MCL 16k 2nd/10 -3L 65 11-1 b L Behind 5/16; rallied
8/16 MTH -5½f T fsMdSpWt 5th/8 -7L 56 34-1 b L Steady 1/2; btwn 1/4
7/5 MNR 6f D MSW 3rd/9 -6L 63 9.7-1 b L Chased wore down

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5f D	MCL 25k	8th/9 -7½L	37	15-1	L	Evenly; faded lane
10/5	PID	6f D	MCL 7k	5th/6 -9L	45	11-1	L	One-paced; no threat
8/19	MNR	6f D	MCL 15k	3rd/6 -4½L	57	9.3-1	L	Evenly; best others

4Blue IceRan 5thA. Ramgeet · T. RamgeetRamgeet · RamgeetA56 51 64▼-3@trip 623-1Fair 3-124%▼ Down -356 51 64@trip 62A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 51 64

Jockey A R Ramgeet 29% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Tina Ramgeet 28% career 0-for-12 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Greyhound Station 9-1, R7: Legacy Trail 7-1 · Trainer R4: Greyhound Station 9-1, R7: General Ginny 12-1, R7: Legacy Trail 7-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 70 against 66 for the next best. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 5; 0 works in 30d

RECORD A R Ramgeet from post 4 here: 9 wins, 27 top-3 in 56 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	6f D	MCL 15k	2nd/9 -½L	56	2.7-1	b L	Hooked; saved place
9/28	MNR	6f D	MCL 4kc	4th/9 -6L	51	0.9-1	b L	Chased weakened wide
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	frMd16000	6th/10 -6¾L	64	5.6-1	b L	Stalked 3w; weakened

5Mary Mcgee▼Ran 7thC. Oliveros · C. FloresOliveros · FloresC47@trip 4710-1Fair 15-17%—47@trip 47C▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 70
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 47 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47
▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 2-for-24 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Christian Flores 33% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Heart Beats True 12-1, this race: Super Pachi 5-1, R5: Greatdayforhockey 2-1, R8: Quistmer 2-1
60D LAYOFF
Changes barns, from Juan Pablo Silva to Christian Flores. A 47 is the high figure lately, short of the 70 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 5 here: 17 wins, 67 top-3 in 151 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/26 MNR 5f T MCL 15kc 6th/9 -9¾L 47 4.1-1 b L Played no factor
6SpringtimeprincessRan 9thJ. Skerrett · J. VazquezSkerrett · VazquezC44 45 21►↕@trip 4420-1Fair 20-14%► Steady44 45 21 ↕@trip 44C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 21–66 · Best fig at today's trip 44 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 45 21
Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Juan Carlos Vazquez 30% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Summersattheshore 2-1 · Trainer R7: Summersattheshore 2-1
60D LAYOFF
Maiden through 8 starts. Beaten 10 lengths for 8th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $15,000 race at MNR.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 19d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/26 MNR 5f T MCL 15k 8th/9 -10L 44 7.0-1 L Always outrun
5/4 MNR 5½f D MSW 5th/6 -13L 45 5.0-1 L Always outrun
2/14 TP 6½f D MCL 50k 9th/9 -14L 21 58-1 L Trailed ins; outrun
7Can't Argue That▼LSRan 2ndL. Tapara · J. RobillardTapara · RobillardC5 57 54▼▼-46↕12-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -465 57 54 ↕C▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -46 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 5–57 · Last 3 figs 5 57 54
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Julie Robillard 24% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Gamay 9-1, R3: Binational 12-1, R7: General Ginny 12-1, R8: Collectorate 3-1
Moves up from maiden claiming $7,500 to maiden claiming $15,000. Back to 5 furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 44d ago
RECORD Luis Tapara from post 7 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 60 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 WO 6f D MCL 7k 9th/10 -16L 5 12-1 b L Brief press; drop back
9/28 FE 5½f D MSW 2nd/6 57 1.4-1 b L 3p str; failed to hold
8/30 FE 6f D MSW 5th/7 -2L 54 6.6-1 L Set pace; gave way
8Chizzy▼Ran 10thR. Barrios · V. DemczykBarrios · DemczykB47 55 64▼▼-11@trip 646-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1147 55 64@trip 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 703
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 55 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career 3-for-22 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Virginia Demczyk 29% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey this race: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R4: X Gene 12-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1, R6: Dr Jack Flyer 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: X Gene 12-1
Figures have slipped: 64, 55, 47 over its last three. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 146 days ago
RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 8 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 116 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 MNR 5f D MCL 25k 5th/9 47 3.3-1 b L Set pace; spent late
9/21 MNR 5½f D MSW DNF — 26-1 b L Flashed speed; eased
8/14 DEL -5f T MCL 16k 6th/7 -1½L 55 5.9-1 b L 3wd; gave way
9Mika's Way▼Ran 8thR. Blanche · M. KendrickBlanche · KendrickC23 587-1Fair 15-16%—23 58C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 70
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 23 58
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Rishawn Blanche 24% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Mark A Kendrick 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Gambi 20-1, R1: Spirit To Inspire 9-2 · Trainer R1: Spirit To Inspire 9-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Mark A Kendrick takes over the training from Jerred Mitchell. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 6 furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Apr 16; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 BTP 6f D MSW 5th/5 -10L 23 1.3-1 L Dueled 2p; stopped
4/23 KEE 6f D MSW 6th/8 -5L 58 34-1 Rushed;duel 2w-3p;wknd
10Brahmastra▼Ran 6thJ. Atherton · C. GrayAtherton · GrayC51 45 38▲+5@trip 559-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +551 45 38@trip 55C▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 70
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 45 38
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Jonathon R Atherton 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Christopher L Gray 16% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Ticket To Paradise 20-1
CLASS UP
Has moved up each time out, 38 to 45 to 51. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 85 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 MNR 5f D MCL 25k 3rd/9 -4L 51 50-1 L Finished well on rail
9/30 MNR 5f T MCL 12k 6th/9 -6½L 45 28-1 L Hustled wore down
9/16 MNR 6f D MSW 8th/9 -4½L 38 37-1 L Evenly; faded lane

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/26	MNR	5f T	MCL 15kc	6th/9 -9¾L	47	4.1-1	b L	Played no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/26	MNR	5f T	MCL 15k	8th/9 -10L	44	7.0-1	L	Always outrun
5/4	MNR	5½f D	MSW	5th/6 -13L	45	5.0-1	L	Always outrun
2/14	TP	6½f D	MCL 50k	9th/9 -14L	21	58-1	L	Trailed ins; outrun

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	BTP	6f D	MSW	5th/5 -10L	23	1.3-1	L	Dueled 2p; stopped
4/23	KEE	6f D	MSW	6th/8 -5L	58	34-1		Rushed;duel 2w-3p;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5f D	MCL 25k	3rd/9 -4L	51	50-1	L	Finished well on rail
9/30	MNR	5f T	MCL 12k	6th/9 -6½L	45	28-1	L	Hustled wore down
9/16	MNR	6f D	MSW	8th/9 -4½L	38	37-1	L	Evenly; faded lane

11Eurcool▼M. Vilchez · D. HenrichVilchez · HenrichC52 50 13▲▲+11↕@trip 6012-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1152 50 13 ↕@trip 60C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 70

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 13–60 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 50 13

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Maikol Vilchez 19% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Darren Henrich

Also today · Jockey R4: Sweet Talia 10-1, R5: Interval 20-1

CLASS UP

0 for 5 at today's distance. Best recent figure is 60, well under the 70 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 54d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	MNR	5f T	MCL 12k	3rd/9 -3L	52	16-1	b L	Extended bid gave all
6/25	BTP	1m T	MCL 7k	7th/8 -1¼L	50	16-1	b L	Pressurd pace ins;wknd
6/13	IND	6f D	fsMd15000	8th/8 -13L	13	65-1	b L	Through early

12Super Pachi▼C. Oliveros · R. CarpioOliveros · CarpioB43 57 51▼▼-9@trip 575-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -943 57 51@trip 57B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 70
Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 43 57 51
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 2-for-24 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Rilardo J Carpio 18% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Heart Beats True 12-1, this race: Mary McGee 10-1, R5: Greatdayforhockey 2-1, R8: Quistmer 2-1
New trainer: Isaias Ayala had it last time, Rilardo J Carpio now. Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 151d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 IND 5½f D MCL 12k 7th/9 -14L 43 3.6-1 b L Inside trip
8/21 BTP 5f T MSW 6th/7 -11L 57 14-1 b L Bobbled; no threat
8/5 IND 6f D MCL 20k 4th/6 -3L 51 15-1 b L Dueled;gave way1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	IND	5½f D	MCL 12k	7th/9 -14L	43	3.6-1	b L	Inside trip
8/21	BTP	5f T	MSW	6th/7 -11L	57	14-1	b L	Bobbled; no threat
8/5	IND	6f D	MCL 20k	4th/6 -3L	51	15-1	b L	Dueled;gave way1/8

13Surprise D' Oro▼R. Barrios · J. SilvaBarrios · SilvaA47 59 60▼-77-2<1%▼ Down -747 59 60A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 70

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 47 59 60

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career 3-for-22 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey this race: Chizzy 6-1, R4: X Gene 12-1, R5: Judy Chop 3-1, R6: Dr Jack Flyer 15-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Snookie Jones 4-1, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R5: Judy Chop 3-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1 +3 more

Worked 4F in :47.40 on Jul 21, 3rd of 13 at the distance. Cuts back from 6 furlongs to 5 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 31d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRC	6f D	fsMd12500	5th/6 -8L	47	14-1	L	Stalked rail; tired
9/7	DMR	5½f D	MCL 16k	10th/12 -9L	59	35-1	L	Hugged rail; weakened
6/20	LRC	6f D	MCL 20k	3rd/6 -5½L	60	3.8-1	L	Up close 3wd;weakened

14Snookie Jones▼J. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaB55 45 55▲+74-1<1%▲ Up +7 · career best55 45 55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 70
Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 55 45 55
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 70
Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Cole's Valentine 10-1, this race: Gorda 15-1, R6: Golden Bandit 3-1 · Trainer this race: Surprise D' Oro 7-2, R3: It's Yesenia 7-2, R5: Judy Chop 3-1, R5: Crime Lord 7-1 +3 more
LASIX 1ST
A step up in company: maiden claiming $7,500 before, maiden claiming $15,000 today. Carries 120 pounds, 4 more than last time.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 19d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 PID 6f D MCL 7k 4th/6 -6¼L 55 6.7-1 Slow early; late int
10/5 PID 1m D MCL 7k 3rd/6 -8½L 45 3.1-1 Along for show
9/21 PID 6f D MCL 7k 3rd/7 -¾L 55 32-1 Steady bid 5 wide;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/19	PID	6f D	MCL 7k	4th/6 -6¼L	55	6.7-1	Slow early; late int
10/5	PID	1m D	MCL 7k	3rd/6 -8½L	45	3.1-1	Along for show
9/21	PID	6f D	MCL 7k	3rd/7 -¾L	55	32-1	Steady bid 5 wide;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Have A Happy, finished 3rd.

1st1Sway Me OverWin$252.20Place$64.60Show$24.80Our #10

2nd7Can't Argue ThatWin—Place$7.40Show$5.60Our #4

3rd3Have A HappyWin—Place—Show$4.20Our #1

4th2GordaOur #8

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $15,000

Field

14 runners

Purse

$13,500

Post

7:25 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 25%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.22

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Have A Happy (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 65 · 56 · 63. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Blue Ice at 3-1. Use #8 Chizzy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Have A Happy ran 3rd · Sway Me Over won (our #10)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #10)
✗ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 5th, 10th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 HAVE A HAPPY	3rd
#2	#4 BLUE ICE	5th
#3	#8 CHIZZY	10th
#4	#7 CAN'T ARGUE THAT	2nd
#5	#5 MARY MCGEE	7th

Actual finish

1st	#1 Sway Me Over	our #10
2nd	#7 Can't Argue That	our #4
3rd	#3 Have a Happy	our #1
4th	#2 Gorda	our #8
5th	#4 Blue Ice	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 HAVE A HAPPY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 HAVE A HAPPY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.7%, they've got 17.2%.
#4 BLUE ICE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.9%, they've got 12.9%.
#8 CHIZZY — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 12.0%, the board 7.4%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 HAVE A HAPPY — we make it 25.7%, the morning line works out to 17.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 BLUE ICE — we make it 20.9%, the morning line works out to 12.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 CHIZZY (6-1) — our fair 12.0% is above the morning line's 7.4%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Chizzy; pressure from #4 Blue Ice, #7 Can't Argue That; the shape helps #2 Gorda, #7 Can't Argue That, #10 Brahmastra; and works against #1 Sway Me Over, #4 Blue Ice, #5 Mary McGee.

Lead

8Chizzy964Blue Ice89

Press

7Can't Argue That9111Eurcool8212Super Pachi77

Stalk

2Gorda8610Brahmastra8513Surprise D' Oro82

3Have A Happy7914Snookie Jones766Springtimeprincess65

No style yet

9Mika's Way915Mary McGee761Sway Me Over

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Chizzy

Can't Argue That

Blue Ice

Gorda

Brahmastra

Eurcool

Surprise D' Oro

Super Pachi

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Have A Happy

Springtimeprincess

Snookie Jones

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20

BOX $2 PICK 3 (RACES 2-4) $1 WHEEL

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.