| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24 | BEL | 6f T | sMd50000 | 4th/12 -3L | 69 | 5.7-1 | b L | 2-3w upper; one paced |
| 9/4 | CNL | 5½f T | MCL 16k | 2nd/10 -2¾L | 70 | 5.3-1 | b L | 2p;traffic3/16;gaining |
| 8/6 | SAR | 5½f T | sMd50000 | 8th/9 -5½L | 64 | 4.4-1 | b L | 3-5p turn;no threat |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | MNR | 6f D | MCL 4k | 2nd/9 -½L | 67 | 7.0-1 | b L | Hard used; held well |
| 9/27 | MNR | 6f D | MCL 4k | 3rd/8 -4½L | 55 | 1.2-1 | b L | Chased; even finish |
| 9/13 | MNR | 5½f D | MCL 4k | 2nd/6 -2L | 53 | 1.8-1 | b L | Ins move angled out |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/10 | BTP | 5f D | MCL 7k | 4th/4 -3L | 44 | 8.9-1 | b L | Dueled 2p;empty 1/8 |
| 9/2 | IND | 5f T | Clm 12k n2x | 7th/8 -10L | 44 | 55-1 | b L | Stalk early5p;fade str |
| 7/30 | BTP | 5f T | MCL 7k | 3rd/8 | 50 | 20-1 | L | Ins;caught 1/8;yielded |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/7 | MNR | 6f D | MSW | 4th/5 -10L | 41 | 11-1 | b L | Tired |
| 5/31 | MNR | 7½f T | MSW | 7th/9 -12L | 51 | 15-1 | b L | Never involved |
| 5/12 | MNR | 6f D | MCL 25k | 5th/6 -17L | 30 | 12-1 | b L | Never involved |
1Finn D'oro▼B. Weatherly · R. ScallanWeatherly · ScallanB67 55 53▲▲+127-2Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best67 55 53B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 732Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 67 55 53
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Robert S Scallan 18% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet7/10 board hereRaises its level, maiden claiming $4,000 last time and maiden claiming $15,000 now. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 185d agoRECORD 0 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 1 here: 28 wins, 82 top-3 in 139 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 MNR 6f D MCL 4k 2nd/9 -½L 67 7.0-1 b L Hard used; held well 9/27 MNR 6f D MCL 4k 3rd/8 -4½L 55 1.2-1 b L Chased; even finish 9/13 MNR 5½f D MCL 4k 2nd/6 -2L 53 1.8-1 b L Ins move angled out 2Super Smooth▼D. Parker · D. SimpsonParker · SimpsonA44 44 50►@trip 503-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady44 44 50@trip 50A▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 733Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 50 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 44 50
▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey D L Parker 35% career ★ 6-for-24 on turf this meet (25%), #1 of 18 · Trainer Daniel Simpson 29% careerAlso today · Jockey R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R5: Estrella Silver 10-1, R6: Buxtehude 7-1, R7: Dance Code 12-1 +1 moreCLASS DROPSwitches from dirt to turf. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 50 against a 73 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 14; 1 work in 30dRECORD D L Parker from post 2 here: 11 wins, 25 top-3 in 45 rides · 20% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/10 BTP 5f D MCL 7k 4th/4 -3L 44 8.9-1 b L Dueled 2p;empty 1/8 9/2 IND 5f T Clm 12k n2x 7th/8 -10L 44 55-1 b L Stalk early5p;fade str 7/30 BTP 5f T MCL 7k 3rd/8 50 20-1 L Ins;caught 1/8;yielded 3MykonosL. Negron · K. MartinezNegron · MartinezA69 70 64►≡2-1Fair 3-126%
► Steady69 70 64 ≡A1Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–73 · Last 3 figs 69 70 64
Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 4-for-22 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Kelli Martinez 32% career ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Undalay 15-1, R4: John's Rock 8-1, R5: R Candy 20-1, R7: Gone Boy 7-1 +1 moreCLASS UPKelli Martinez takes over the training from Keri Brion. Owns the highest recent figure here at 73.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 9d agoRECORD Luis Negron from post 3 here: 23 wins, 69 top-3 in 134 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 BEL 6f T sMd50000 4th/12 -3L 69 5.7-1 b L 2-3w upper; one paced 9/4 CNL 5½f T MCL 16k 2nd/10 -2¾L 70 5.3-1 b L 2p;traffic3/16;gaining 8/6 SAR 5½f T sMd50000 8th/9 -5½L 64 4.4-1 b L 3-5p turn;no threat 4Guess Im Just Good▼J. Silva Jr. · J. RomeroSilva Jr. · RomeroC20 4020-1Fair 30-13%
—20 40C▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 20 40
▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Juan Pablo Jr Silva 27% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Jose A Romero 26% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet180D+ LAYOFFBack after 392 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. 6th last time, 16 lengths back, in a field of 8.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 13d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 TDN 5½f D sMdSpWt 6th/8 -16L 20 14-1 b L Missed break;no threat 9/17 TDN 5½f D sMdSpWt 5th/6 -11L 40 4.9-1 b L Weakened lane 5Dremscomtrubcseofu▼LSC. Oliveros · E. ReedOliveros · ReedB41 51 30►8-1Fair 8-112%
► Steady41 51 30B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 73LSCard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 41 51 30
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 73LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Eric R Reed 31% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%)Also today · Jockey R2: Quistmer 7-1, R2: Shear Magic 2-1, R4: Roundball Rock 5-1, R5: Holly Roller 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Blistering 2-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYS0/4 board hereFinished 4th in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at MNR, beaten 10 lengths. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 6 furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d backRECORD Not on the board in 4 starts hereRECORD Charle Oliveros from post 5 here: 17 wins, 67 top-3 in 151 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 MNR 6f D MSW 4th/5 -10L 41 11-1 b L Tired 5/31 MNR 7½f T MSW 7th/9 -12L 51 15-1 b L Never involved 5/12 MNR 6f D MCL 25k 5th/6 -17L 30 12-1 b L Never involved 6Alwaysabiggerbear▼E. Barbaran · J. BairdBarbaran · BairdC27 23 23▲▲+815-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +827 23 23C▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 27 23 23
▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer J Michael Baird 24% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet180D+ LAYOFFJky 21/86 from post 6350 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d agoRECORD Not on the board in 5 starts hereRECORD Erik Barbaran from post 6 here: 21 wins, 55 top-3 in 86 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 11/17 MNR 6f D sMdSpWt 5th/7 -2L 27 16-1 b L Set pace; wilted lane 10/29 MNR 5½f D sMdSpWt 7th/9 -13L 23 55-1 b L Pressed pace; spent 7/2 MNR 5f D sMdSpWt 7th/7 -13L 23 23-1 b L Chased; spent lane 7Chester Good▼J. Leon · B. SippLeon · SippB-2 57 21▼▼-29↕10-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -29-2 57 21 ↕B▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -29 · ↕ Up-and-down figures -2–57 · Last 3 figs -2 57 21
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Burton K Sipp 15% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Big Spin 5-1, R6: Diamond Dancer 3-1 +1 moreDrops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $15,000. Best recent figure is 57, well under the 73 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d backRECORD Jose A Leon from post 7 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 MNR 6f D MSW 8th/8 -9½L -2 5.5-1 Stopped 9/22 MNR 5½f D MSW 2nd/7 57 19-1 Bid gamely inside 8/30 KD 6f T MSW 12th/12 -21L 21 101-1 b Failed to sustain bid; 8SpringsY. Yaranga · R. MurilloYaranga · MurilloA46 64 62▼▼-136-1Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -1346 64 62ACard model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 46 64 62
Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Rodriguez Alejandro Murillo 19% careerAlso today · Jockey R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1, R5: Kim's Money 12-1 +2 moreMaiden through 14 starts. Back to 5 furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 125d back)RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Y Yaranga from post 8 here: 16 wins, 44 top-3 in 106 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 MNR 6f D MSW 6th/8 -4½L 46 1.8-1 b L Tired 9/6 MNR 6f D MSW 4th/7 by hd 64 6.9-1 b L Weakened 8/18 MNR 6f D MCL 15k 4th/8 -½L 62 8.2-1 b L Bid inside outfinished
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #6, #1.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 1
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $15,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.22
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Mykonos (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 69 · 70 · 64. Backup is #1 Finn D'Oro at 7-2. Use #2 Super Smooth in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 MYKONOS (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #3 MYKONOS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.8% to their 26.4%).
- #2 SUPER SMOOTH — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 19.8%).
- #1 FINN D'ORO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.7% to their 17.6%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Alwaysabiggerbear; pressure from #2 Super Smooth, #1 Finn D'Oro; the shape helps #1 Finn D'Oro, #3 Mykonos, #7 Chester Good; and works against #2 Super Smooth, #4 Guess Im Just Good, #5 Dremscomtrubcseofu.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1
SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX $2 PICK 4 (RACES 1-4) $.50 WHEEL
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta