Pick sheet

Race 58:40 PM Clm 4000n2xLate Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Dirt · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Late Spring Night, is 21% to win (morning line implies 13%). Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #9 Late Spring Night ML 4-1 Fair 4-1 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -16 ▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey B. Weatherly · Trainer C. Godsey · KEE 5: 1-1-1 · Dist 6: 1-1-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 54 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/5 -2L	45	2.1-1	b L	Set pace; weakened;
8/19	MNR	5f D	Clm 15k n2x	2nd/8 -½L	63	6.7-1	b L	Led late run down
7/27	MNR	5f T	Clm 15k n2x	3rd/7 -4½L	61	12-1	b L	In tight

Case: Last out 3rd in the fClm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 45-63-61. Best at today's distance 54. 1-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Mountaineer Park. C. Godsey / B. Weatherly.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #12 Classic Tiramisu ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best

Jockey J. Tavares · Trainer B. Delong · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 4: 0-3-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 60 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	FPK	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/9 -1L	68	8.0-1	L	Bump st;3p;rally;miss
10/2	BTP	6f D	MCL 5k	Won/4	57	0.6-1	L	2-3p;cue5/16;drew away
9/18	BTP	5½f D	MCL 5k	2nd/4 -2½L	59	2.4-1	L	Stayed on best; 2nd

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm5000n2l at FPK. Last Brisnet figures 68-57-59. Best at today's distance 60. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. B. Delong / J. Tavares.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Use #5 Holly Roller ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70 Last out 4th/6 -12L in the fClm10000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 50-59-56. Best at today's distance 61. 3-for-23 at the distance. 4-for-35 at Mountaineer Park. L. Cox / C. Oliveros. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey C. Oliveros · Trainer L. Cox · KEE 35: 4-7-10 · Dist 23: 3-4-8 · best fig at 5½f dirt 61 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	MNR	5f D	Clm 10k n2x	4th/6 -12L	50	4.4-1	b L	Never involved
9/1	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -4¼L	59	10-1	b L	Slow early; fin well
8/11	MNR	5f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/6 by hd	56	3.6-1	b L	Edged clear driving

Longshot #10 R Candy ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #8 ▲▲ Big jump +11

Jockey L. Negron · Trainer J. Bernardini · KEE 6: 0-3-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	MNR	4½f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/6 -11L	61	3.6-1	b L	Came on second best
9/14	MNR	5f D	Clm 10k n2x	3rd/6 -8L	52	14-1	b L	Evenly; held others
8/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/7 -1½L	44	6.4-1	b L	Hooked ins; gave way;

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 61-52-44. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Mountaineer Park. J. Bernardini / L. Negron.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

★ Distance horse: #2 Burn It All (7-1) has the best figure in the field at 5½f dirt: 62 from 5 tries, record at the distance 8: 0-0-2. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #12, #13 · B #2, #4, #9 · C #1, #3, #6, #7, #8, #10, #11, #14

Angles: #1 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #2 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #3 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #4 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #5 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #7 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #9 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #13 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 70 · #14 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 70

R5 Mountaineer Park · Claiming $4,000

8:40 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $9,000 · 14 runners8:40 PM · 5½f Dirt · 14 runners

Upcoming $9,000 · Claiming $4,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 Burn It All (7-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 62 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1Estrella Silver▼LSD. Parker · W. WitherowParker · WitherowC50 62 53▲+4↕@trip 5810-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +450 62 53 ↕@trip 58C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 70LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 24–62 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 62 53

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 70LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer William G Witherow 16% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Super Smooth 3-1, R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R6: Buxtehude 7-1, R7: Dance Code 12-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 62 against a 70 par. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 21; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD D L Parker from post 1 here: 12 wins, 26 top-3 in 54 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/5 -4½L	50	2.2-1	L	Pressed pace; spent
9/13	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/8 -3L	62	12-1	L	Overtaken held well
9/1	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	6th/9 -1¼L	53	48-1	L	Chased; weakened;

2Burn It All▼★L. Tapara · J. RobillardTapara · RobillardB47 59 64▼-4↕@trip 627-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -447 59 64 ↕@trip 62B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70★ Best at the trip 62
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 31–64 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 59 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 70★ Best at the trip 62
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Julie Robillard 24% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Yes I Am Free 3-1, R3: Marmara 8-1, R4: My Two Aunt Joans 7-1, R8: Team Leyendecker 7-1 · Trainer R3: Silver Candice 5-1, R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R4: Gametime Gladiator 4-1
Julie Robillard takes over the training from Aldana Gonzalez. Class relief: $6,250 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 144d back)
RECORD Luis Tapara from post 2 here: 8 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 PID 6f D Clm 6k n2l 9th/9 -3¼L 47 30-1 b L Press;tired
9/23 PID 5½f D Clm 6k n2l 6th/9 -4L 59 28-1 b L Tracked; weakened;
9/9 PID 6f D MCL 7k Won/8 64 22-1 b L Well handled;held game

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	9th/9 -3¼L	47	30-1	b L	Press;tired
9/23	PID	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	6th/9 -4L	59	28-1	b L	Tracked; weakened;
9/9	PID	6f D	MCL 7k	Won/8	64	22-1	b L	Well handled;held game

3Kim's Money▼Y. Yaranga · G. RodakYaranga · RodakC52 49 43▲+6≡@trip 6112-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +652 49 43 ≡@trip 61C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 43–52 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 49 43

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Geraldine Rodak 13% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1 +2 more

0/5 board here

Has moved up each time out, 43 to 49 to 52. Finished 5th in a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 5 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Dec 27 (3F in :35.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

RECORD Y Yaranga from post 3 here: 18 wins, 51 top-3 in 125 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/7 -5L	52	39-1	L	Loomed to lane; faded
10/5	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/5 -7½L	49	16-1	L	Weakened on the turn
9/22	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/5 -7½L	43	20-1	L	Never involved

4Bowling Blue▼R. Dumont · V. DemczykDumont · DemczykB56 56 54▲+3≡@trip 568-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +356 56 54 ≡@trip 56B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 48–56 · Best fig at today's trip 56 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 56 54

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Reynaldo Dumont 14% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Virginia Demczyk 29% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Vroysky 10-1, R3: Special Note 20-1, R8: Priority Lane 12-1

60D LAYOFF

New trainer: Kevin J Joy had it last time, Virginia Demczyk now. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 70 par.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 156d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/1	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/9 -4¼L	56	10-1	b L	Evenly; needed more
8/6	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/6 -3½L	56	21-1	b L	Bump2x-chute;rallied
7/16	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k n2l	4th/7 -6L	54	15-1	b L	Shuffled start; evenly

5Holly Roller▼C. Oliveros · L. CoxOliveros · CoxA50 59 56▼-3@trip 615-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -350 59 56@trip 61A▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 703

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 59 56

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer L Craig Cox 42% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Dremscomtrubcseofu 8-1, R2: Quistmer 7-1, R2: Shear Magic 2-1, R4: Roundball Rock 5-1 +1 more

CLASS UP5/10 board here

A big drop, $10,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Last out was 4th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $10,000 claiming race at MNR.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 101 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 5 here: 17 wins, 67 top-3 in 151 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	MNR	5f D	Clm 10k n2x	4th/6 -12L	50	4.4-1	b L	Never involved
9/1	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -4¼L	59	10-1	b L	Slow early; fin well
8/11	MNR	5f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/6 by hd	56	3.6-1	b L	Edged clear driving

6Friendly LucyK. Gonzalez · D. AdamsGonzalez · AdamsC51 51 58▼-6@trip 5815-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -651 51 58@trip 58C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 51 58

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Doug Adams 18% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R6: Kittyup 10-1 +3 more

2nd of 7 at 3F on Aug 10, in :37.00. Best recent figure is 61, well under the 70 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 6 here: 27 wins, 80 top-3 in 197 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/7 -6¼L	51	30-1	L	Chased; weakened;
11/11	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -6¼L	51	7.6-1	L	Wide trip
10/27	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/4 -5L	58	3.7-1	L	Reared up at break

7Reign in My Heart▼▼F. Garcia · H. BarbaranGarcia · BarbaranC42 41 45▼-7↕20-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -742 41 45 ↕C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 70▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–62 · Last 3 figs 42 41 45

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 70▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey F Garcia 33% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Horacio Barbaran 20% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

CLASS DROP

A longer trip: 4½ furlongs last out, 5½ furlongs today. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 94d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD F Garcia from post 7 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 26 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	4½f D	Clm 4k n3x	6th/8 -11L	42	23-1	b L	Never involved
10/4	MNR	6f D	Clm 15k n2x	7th/7 -8½L	41	41-1	b L	Set pace; spent
9/14	MNR	5f D	Clm 10k n2x	6th/6 -11L	45	5.0-1	b L	Hustled along; tired;

8Red Delicious▼R. Barrios · J. SerranoBarrios · SerranoC52 58 50►@trip 5615-1Fair 30-13%► Steady52 58 50@trip 56C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 56 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 58 50

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-42 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Johanson Serrano 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Kool Kathmandu 20-1, R3: Later Days 20-1, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1 · Trainer R4: Loony 20-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time. Fastest 3F work of its morning on May 4 (:35.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on May 4; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 8 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 116 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	6th/7 -6L	52	14-1	b L	Vied turn; faded
9/24	TDN	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/6 -1½L	58	28-1	b L	Chased; faded late
9/13	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/8 -5L	50	16-1	b L	Chased pace weakened;

9Late Spring Night▼B. Weatherly · C. GodseyWeatherly · GodseyB45 63 61▼▼-16@trip 544-1Fair 4-121%▼▼ Big drop -1645 63 61@trip 54B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 701

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 45 63 61

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer C Marshall Godsey 16% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Finn D'Oro 7-2

CLASS DROP4/6 board here

Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 5-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR. Led at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 285 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Bailey Weatherly from post 9 here: 3 wins, 20 top-3 in 61 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/5 -2L	45	2.1-1	b L	Set pace; weakened;
8/19	MNR	5f D	Clm 15k n2x	2nd/8 -½L	63	6.7-1	b L	Led late run down
7/27	MNR	5f T	Clm 15k n2x	3rd/7 -4½L	61	12-1	b L	In tight

10R CandyL. Negron · J. BernardiniNegron · BernardiniC61 52 44▲▲+1120-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1161 52 44C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Last 3 figs 61 52 44

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 7-for-45 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 7-for-52 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Mykonos 2-1, R2: Undalay 15-1, R4: John's Rock 8-1, R7: Gone Boy 7-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Undalay 15-1, R7: Bouncer 10-1, R8: Lomachenko 2-1

CLASS DROP3/6 board here

Figures are climbing: 44, 52, 61 over its last three. Stretches out from 4½ furlongs to 5½ furlongs.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 233 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Luis Negron from post 10 here: 6 wins, 11 top-3 in 26 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	MNR	4½f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/6 -11L	61	3.6-1	b L	Came on second best
9/14	MNR	5f D	Clm 10k n2x	3rd/6 -8L	52	14-1	b L	Evenly; held others
8/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/7 -1½L	44	6.4-1	b L	Hooked ins; gave way;

11StarcryJ. Monserrate Jr. · M. McKinleyMonserrate Jr. · McKinleyC47 50 46►≡20-1Fair 99-11%► Steady47 50 46 ≡C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 43–50 · Last 3 figs 47 50 46

Jockey Jorge A Jr Monserrate 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mary R McKinley

Also today · Jockey R6: Fortunata Italia 15-1

Drops from $6,250 claiming to $4,000 claiming. Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	PID	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k n2l	11th/11 -16L	47	110-1	b L	Failed to menace;
9/9	PID	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k n2l	8th/8 -12L	50	70-1	b L	Through after half
8/26	PID	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	7th/7 -12L	46	45-1	b L	Trailed; no factor;

12Classic TiramisuJ. Tavares · B. DelongTavares · DelongA68 57 59▲▲+12@trip 604-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best68 57 59@trip 60A2

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 60 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 57 59

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Adios Kid 15-1 · Trainer R7: Committee Of One 3-1, R7: Adios Kid 15-1

Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Tops the field on speed figures, a 68 against 64 for the next best.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump st; 3p; rally; miss. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 206 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	FPK	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/9 -1L	68	8.0-1	L	Bump st;3p;rally;miss
10/2	BTP	6f D	MCL 5k	Won/4	57	0.6-1	L	2-3p;cue5/16;drew away
9/18	BTP	5½f D	MCL 5k	2nd/4 -2½L	59	2.4-1	L	Stayed on best; 2nd

13I've Had Enough▼A. Ramgeet · T. RamgeetRamgeet · RamgeetA56 59 58►6-1Fair 20-15%► Steady56 59 58A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 70

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 56 59 58

▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey A R Ramgeet 29% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tina Ramgeet 28% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Cloudy Bay 20-1 · Trainer R3: Cloudy Bay 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from S Matthew Kintz to Tina Ramgeet. The Sep 29 work, 5F in :59.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 29 (5F in :59.00), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	8th/8 -2L	56	9.5-1	b L	Hustled;press;gv way
10/5	PID	6f D	MCL 7k	Won/6	59	1.6-1	b L	Pull away;unthreatened
9/9	PID	6f D	MCL 7k	5th/8 -2L	58	7.7-1	b L	Bid upper; not enough

14Elsie's Legacy▼B. Martinez · R. MartinezMartinez · MartinezC47 56 51►↕@trip 527-1Fair 30-13%► Steady47 56 51 ↕@trip 52C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 70

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–56 · Best fig at today's trip 52 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 56 51

▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 70

Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career · Trainer Ralph A Martinez 32% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Committee Of One 3-1

0 for 4 at today's distance. Worked 3F in :37.00 on Apr 8, 2nd of 25 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 51d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	FPK	6f D	MCL 5k	6th/11 -2½L	47	2.7-1	L	4-5p;cued5/16;faded1/8
10/3	FPK	6f D	MCL 5kc	4th/8 -½L	56	3.5-1	L	Chase;insd turn;bid1/4
9/19	FPK	5½f D	MCL 6k	2nd/7 by hd	51	4.6-1	L	Duel inside; no match

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

14 runners

Purse

$9,000

Post

8:40 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#9 · 21%

Claiming $4,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.26

The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Late Spring Night (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 45 · 63 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #12 Classic Tiramisu at 4-1. Use #5 Holly Roller in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 LATE SPRING NIGHT (4-1) — our number agrees.
#9 LATE SPRING NIGHT — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.2%, they've got 13.3%.
#12 CLASSIC TIRAMISU — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 13.3%).
#5 HOLLY ROLLER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.6% to their 11.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 LATE SPRING NIGHT — we make it 16.2%, the morning line works out to 13.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Burn It All; pressure from #13 I'Ve Had Enough, #3 Kim's Money; the shape helps #4 Bowling Blue, #6 Friendly Lucy; and works against #2 Burn It All, #3 Kim's Money, #7 Reign In My Heart.

Lead

2Burn It All9713I'Ve Had Enough953Kim's Money8514Elsie's Legacy858Red Delicious837Reign In My Heart74

Press

1Estrella Silver899Late Spring Night8912Classic Tiramisu8410R Candy775Holly Roller72

Stalk

11Starcry71

4Bowling Blue836Friendly Lucy83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Burn It All

I'Ve Had Enough

Estrella Silver

Late Spring Night

Kim's Money

Elsie's Legacy

Classic Tiramisu

Red Delicious

R Candy

Reign In My Heart

Holly Roller

Starcry

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Friendly Lucy

Bowling Blue

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