Pick sheet

Race 79:30 PM RHP

6F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Blistering, is 32% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Blistering ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +6 ↕ Up and down 63–85

Jockey C. Oliveros · Trainer E. Reed · KEE 3: 1-1-1 · Dist 6: 5-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 85 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	BTP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	Won/8	82	1.4-1	b L	Pace 2p;held sway
9/25	BTP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	Won/4	81	2.6-1	b L	Dueled 2p;drove clear
7/8	MNR	5f T	Alw b	6th/6 -7L	63	14-1	b L	Never involved

Case: Last out won in the OC25000n1x at BTP. Last Brisnet figures 82-81-63. Best at today's distance 85. 5-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Mountaineer Park. E. Reed / C. Oliveros.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Committee of One ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey B. Martinez · Trainer B. Delong · Dist 8: 3-2-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 95 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	FPK	6f D	OC 40k n1y	2nd/5 by nk	95	3.2-1	L	Vied; came out; DQ 3rd
8/29	FPK	6f D	OC 40k n2y	2nd/5 -2L	83	1.4-1	L	Press;3-4w;held 2nd
7/28	FPK	6f D	OC 30k n3x	Won/6	88	2.4-1	L	Vied; clear; held well

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC40000n1y at FPK. Last Brisnet figures 95-83-88. Best at today's distance 95. 3-for-8 at the distance. B. Delong / B. Martinez.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #7 Dean Delivers ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 74–81 Last out 4th/6 -6½L in the Alw38900nc at CT. Last Brisnet figures 81-80-74. Best at today's distance 86. 5-for-18 at the distance. A. Davidovich / L. Batista. Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Batista · Trainer A. Davidovich · Dist 18: 5-3-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 86 · 9 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CT	7f D	Alw nc	4th/6 -6½L	81	11-1	b L	Chased ins3/8;faded
10/9	CT	6½f D	OC 25k bc	Won/8	80	3.4-1	b L	Vied3w1/8;clr driving
9/4	TIM	-6½f D	OC 20k	Won/5 by 1	74	2.4-1	b L	Off duel 3wd;driving

Longshot #5 Xavi ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #8 ▼▼ Big drop -11

Jockey A. Bendezu · Trainer F. Randazzo Jr. · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 17: 3-4-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 82 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	FPK	6f D	OC 30k	6th/6 -7L	67	21-1	b L	4-w; no factor
10/3	FPK	6f D	Alw s	2nd/10 -3L	81	5.9-1	b L	Advance insd;close gap
9/12	FPK	6f D	OC 10k n1x	8th/10 -8L	73	8.6-1	b L	Bmpd btwn 5/8;5w turn

Case: Last out 6th/6 -7L in the OC30000 at FPK. Last Brisnet figures 67-81-73. Best at today's distance 82. 3-for-17 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. F. Randazzo Jr. / A. Bendezu.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #2 Bouncer (10-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 99 from 5 tries, record at the distance 13: 5-1-2. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #8 · B #2, #6, #7 · C #3, #5, #9

Angles: #2 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Lone speed on early pace

R7 Mountaineer Park · R.H.P. Stakes

9:30 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $15,000 · 9 runners9:30 PM · 6f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $15K · R.H.P. Stakes

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 Bouncer (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 99 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1BlisteringC. Oliveros · E. ReedOliveros · ReedA82 81 63▲+6↕@trip 852-1Fair 2-132%▲ Up +682 81 63 ↕@trip 85A1
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 81 63
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Eric R Reed 31% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Dremscomtrubcseofu 8-1, R2: Quistmer 7-1, R2: Shear Magic 2-1, R4: Roundball Rock 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Dremscomtrubcseofu 8-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/5 board here
Winner of an 8-horse optional claiming race at BTP last time. Figures are climbing: 63, 81, 82 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 94d back)
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here
RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 1 here: 32 wins, 77 top-3 in 152 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 BTP 6f D OC 25k n1x Won/8 82 1.4-1 b L Pace 2p;held sway
9/25 BTP 6f D OC 25k n1x Won/4 81 2.6-1 b L Dueled 2p;drove clear
7/8 MNR 5f T Alw b 6th/6 -7L 63 14-1 b L Never involved

2Bouncer▼★B. Tapara · J. BernardiniTapara · BernardiniB76 84 81▼-6≡@trip 9910-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -676 84 81 ≡@trip 99B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 99

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 76–84 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 84 81

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 7-for-52 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Into It 8-1, R8: Lomachenko 2-1 · Trainer R2: Undalay 15-1, R5: R Candy 20-1, R8: Lomachenko 2-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

New trainer: Jamie Ness had it last time, Jay P Bernardini now. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago

RECORD Brandon Tapara from post 2 here: 16 wins, 39 top-3 in 80 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	CNL	5½f T	Clm 10k c	4th/10 -1L	76	1.9-1	L	Bid btwn 1/8;not enuf
7/29	DEL	6f D	OC 32k n2x	4th/6 -6L	84	5.1-1	L	3-5wd; gave way
6/14	LRL	5½f T	OC 40k n2x	4th/7 -6½L	81	7.9-1	L	Angled out 1/16;mild

3Lord of MischiefK. Gonzalez · T. CragoGonzalez · CragoC79 74 75►≡@trip 916-1Fair 10-19%► Steady79 74 75 ≡@trip 91C
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–83 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 74 75
Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Terry Crago 26% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1 +3 more
5/5 board here
4 wins from 11 starts at this distance. 3rd of 22 at 4F on Jun 1, in :49.00.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 122 days ago
RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (1 win)
RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 3 here: 19 wins, 71 top-3 in 201 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 MNR 5½f D Clm 12k b 2nd/9 79 4.4-1 b L Led late just missed;
8/5 PID 6½f D Alw n1x 7th/8 -5L 74 3.0-1 b L Steady fade
7/15 PID 6f D Alw n1x 2nd/6 -3L 75 11-1 b L Lost position;gaining

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	MNR	5½f D	Clm 12k b	2nd/9	79	4.4-1	b L	Led late just missed;
8/5	PID	6½f D	Alw n1x	7th/8 -5L	74	3.0-1	b L	Steady fade
7/15	PID	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -3L	75	11-1	b L	Lost position;gaining

4Committee of One▲B. Martinez · B. DelongMartinez · DelongA95 83 88▲▲+8@trip 953-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best95 83 88@trip 95A▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 95 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 83 88

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Elsie's Legacy 7-1 · Trainer R5: Classic Tiramisu 4-1, this race: Adios Kid 15-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 90 for the next best. Class relief: optional claiming last time, unknown today.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 13 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	FPK	6f D	OC 40k n1y	2nd/5 by nk	95	3.2-1	L	Vied; came out; DQ 3rd
8/29	FPK	6f D	OC 40k n2y	2nd/5 -2L	83	1.4-1	L	Press;3-4w;held 2nd
7/28	FPK	6f D	OC 30k n3x	Won/6	88	2.4-1	L	Vied; clear; held well

5XaviLSA. Bendezu · F. Randazzo Jr.Bendezu · Randazzo Jr.C67 81 73▼▼-11@trip 8220-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1167 81 73@trip 82CLS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 81 73

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career · Trainer Frank C Jr Randazzo 16% career

Was running in optional claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper. Was 6th of 6 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 79d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	FPK	6f D	OC 30k	6th/6 -7L	67	21-1	b L	4-w; no factor
10/3	FPK	6f D	Alw s	2nd/10 -3L	81	5.9-1	b L	Advance insd;close gap
9/12	FPK	6f D	OC 10k n1x	8th/10 -8L	73	8.6-1	b L	Bmpd btwn 5/8;5w turn

6Dance CodeD. Parker · J. VazquezParker · VazquezB85 87 84▲+3@trip 8712-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +385 87 84@trip 87B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 87 84

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Juan Carlos Vazquez 30% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Super Smooth 3-1, R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R5: Estrella Silver 10-1, R6: Buxtehude 7-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Gone Boy 7-1

6/9 board here

Finished 2nd in an 8-horse race at MNR, beaten 7½ lengths. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swung wide closed in), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 154d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD D L Parker from post 6 here: 9 wins, 24 top-3 in 48 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	MNR	5½f D	RHP 45-70	2nd/8 -7½L	85	3.7-1	L	Swung wide closed in
8/9	MNR	6f D	Clm 10k b	Won/5 by hd	87	1.1-1	L	Up abreast foe 6 wide;
7/7	MNR	6f D	RHP 20-40	Won/8 by 3	84	6.2-1	L	Surged clear mid track

7Dean DeliversL. Batista · A. DavidovichBatista · DavidovichB81 80 74▲+3≡@trip 865-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +381 80 74 ≡@trip 86B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 74–81 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 80 74

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Andrew Davidovich 23% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Silver Candice 5-1, R4: Gametime Gladiator 4-1, R8: Orb Of The Boro 15-1

Has moved up each time out, 74 to 80 to 81. Turns back in 9 days.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 37d ago

RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 7 here: 33 wins, 76 top-3 in 166 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CT	7f D	Alw nc	4th/6 -6½L	81	11-1	b L	Chased ins3/8;faded
10/9	CT	6½f D	OC 25k bc	Won/8	80	3.4-1	b L	Vied3w1/8;clr driving
9/4	TIM	-6½f D	OC 20k	Won/5 by 1	74	2.4-1	b L	Off duel 3wd;driving

8Gone BoyL. Negron · J. VazquezNegron · VazquezA80 90 88▼-5@trip 907-1Fair 8-110%▼ Down -580 90 88@trip 90A
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 90 88
Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 7-for-45 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Juan Carlos Vazquez 30% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Mykonos 2-1, R2: Undalay 15-1, R4: John's Rock 8-1, R5: R Candy 20-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Dance Code 12-1
7/8 board here
Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Drops from allowance to unknown.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back
RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 8 starts here
RECORD Luis Negron from post 8 here: 16 wins, 43 top-3 in 95 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 MNR 1m D Alw b 3rd/5 80 3.1-1 b L Wore to wide pressure
8/19 MNR 6f D Alw n2y Won/5 90 1.2-1 b L Bid clear held firm
8/9 MNR 6f D OC 35k b 2nd/8 -1L 88 30-1 b L Wide bid; gamely;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	MNR	1m D	Alw b	3rd/5	80	3.1-1	b L	Wore to wide pressure
8/19	MNR	6f D	Alw n2y	Won/5	90	1.2-1	b L	Bid clear held firm
8/9	MNR	6f D	OC 35k b	2nd/8 -1L	88	30-1	b L	Wide bid; gamely;

9Adios KidJ. Tavares · B. DelongTavares · DelongC79 45 73▲▲+15↕@trip 8615-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1579 45 73 ↕@trip 86C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–79 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 45 73

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Classic Tiramisu 4-1 · Trainer R5: Classic Tiramisu 4-1, this race: Committee Of One 3-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

A big drop, optional claiming to unknown, and worth asking why. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Jul 24 (1:00.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 24; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	FPK	6f D	sOC20000n4l	3rd/8 by nk	79	32-1	L	Stdy 7/16;insd;mssd2nd
9/22	FPK	6f D	OC 25k	6th/6 -9½L	45	14-1	L	Reared brk;no menace
8/29	FPK	6f D	sOC20000n4l	2nd/10 -4L	73	19-1	L	Insd;swung 5w;save 2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

R.H.P. Stakes

Field

9 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

9:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 32%

Unknown, for 3-year-olds and up.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Blistering (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 82 · 81 · 63. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Committee Of One at 3-1. Use #7 Dean Delivers in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 BLISTERING (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 BLISTERING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 25.7%).
#4 COMMITTEE OF ONE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.3%).
#7 DEAN DELIVERS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Committee Of One; pressure from #1 Blistering, #3 Lord Of Mischief; the shape helps #2 Bouncer, #3 Lord Of Mischief, #5 Xavi; and works against #1 Blistering, #4 Committee Of One.

Lead

4Committee Of One961Blistering92

Press

3Lord Of Mischief919Adios Kid915Xavi88

Stalk

7Dean Delivers882Bouncer87

8Gone Boy806Dance Code75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Committee Of One

Blistering

Lord Of Mischief

Adios Kid

Xavi

Dean Delivers

Bouncer

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Gone Boy

Dance Code

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1

SUPERFECTA $.20 BOX

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.