Pick sheet

Race 89:55 PM Clm 4000n2x

6F · Dirt · 14 entered. Our model's top pick, Lomachenko, is 24% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Lomachenko ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 70–78

Jockey B. Tapara · Trainer J. Bernardini · KEE 7: 1-2-2 · Dist 7: 1-2-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 78 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 by hd	72	3.7-1	b L	Battled to wire
9/8	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/7 -4½L	70	6.2-1	b L	Mild bid
8/25	MNR	6f D	Clm 5k n2x	2nd/7 -9L	75	5.6-1	b L	Got up for place ins

Case: Last out 4th/9 by hd in the Clm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 72-70-75. Best at today's distance 78. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Mountaineer Park. J. Bernardini / B. Tapara.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Uncle Truly ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -19 ↕ Up and down 59–80

Jockey D. Parker · Trainer E. Clouston · KEE 4: 1-1-0 · Dist 4: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	Clm 10k	5th/6 -7L	59	4.5-1	b L	Evenly; faded lane
9/13	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k	4th/5 -4½L	78	2.6-1	b L	Chased; weakened;
8/5	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k	2nd/5 -3L	77	0.3-1	b L	Gaining too late

Case: Last out 5th/6 -7L in the Clm10000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 59-78-77. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Mountaineer Park. E. Clouston / D. Parker.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #10 Bohemian Style ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 Last out 2nd in the Clm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 76-70-61. Best at today's distance 78. 1-for-11 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Mountaineer Park. J. Poole / E. Greenidge. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey E. Greenidge · Trainer J. Poole · KEE 5: 1-1-1 · Dist 11: 1-3-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 78 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/9 -4L	76	4.4-1	b L	Chased surged gamely;
9/23	MNR	5f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/6	70	0.8-1	b L	Narrow lead; gamely;
7/1	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k bc	3rd/7 -2L	61	0.3-1	b L	Pressed pace; short

Longshot #4 Priority Lane ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ▼▼ Big drop -14 ↕ Up and down 54–83

Jockey R. Dumont · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 9: 1-1-3 · Dist 10: 1-1-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	10th/10 -10L	57	11-1	b L	Chased; gave way lane
9/6	MNR	5f D	ROC 40-60	6th/6 -6¼L	54	30-1	b L	Brief speed
7/21	MNR	5½f D	ROC 20-40	Won/5	83	2.3-1	b L	Prevailed abreast foe

Case: Last out 10th/10 -10L in the Clm4000n1l at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 57-54-83. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-10 at the distance. 1-for-9 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / R. Dumont.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #7, #10 · B #5, #6, #14 · C #1, #3, #4, #8, #9, #11, #12, #13

Angles: #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #11 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #12 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

R8 Mountaineer Park · Claiming $4,000

9:55 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $9,000 · 14 runners9:55 PM · 6f Dirt · 14 runners

Upcoming $9,000 · Claiming $4,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Grey StreakJ. Leon · G. ShaferLeon · ShaferC52 70 68▼▼-15@trip 7515-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1552 70 68@trip 75C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 70 68
Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 28
Also today · Jockey R1: Chester Good 10-1, R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Marmara 8-1, R6: Maci's World 2-1
Jky 10/53 from post 1
Gabe Shafer takes over the training from Jabdiel Castillo. 6th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 7.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.60 on Mar 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Jose A Leon from post 1 here: 10 wins, 27 top-3 in 53 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 MNR 5½f D Clm 3k b 6th/7 -13L 52 6.2-1 L Never involved
9/22 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n2x 6th/9 -3¾L 70 18-1 L Hustled wide; hung;
8/25 MNR 6f D Clm 5k n2x 6th/7 -14L 68 35-1 L Never involved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	5½f D	Clm 3k b	6th/7 -13L	52	6.2-1	L	Never involved
9/22	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	6th/9 -3¾L	70	18-1	L	Hustled wide; hung;
8/25	MNR	6f D	Clm 5k n2x	6th/7 -14L	68	35-1	L	Never involved

2LomachenkoB. Tapara · J. BernardiniTapara · BernardiniA72 70 75►≡@trip 782-1Fair 3-124%► Steady72 70 75 ≡@trip 78A1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 70–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 70 75

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career 7-for-52 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Into It 8-1, R7: Bouncer 10-1 · Trainer R2: Undalay 15-1, R5: R Candy 20-1, R7: Bouncer 10-1

2/4 board here

Beaten a head for 4th in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR. Best recent figure of 78 sits right around the 79 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 138d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Brandon Tapara from post 2 here: 16 wins, 39 top-3 in 80 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 by hd	72	3.7-1	b L	Battled to wire
9/8	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/7 -4½L	70	6.2-1	b L	Mild bid
8/25	MNR	6f D	Clm 5k n2x	2nd/7 -9L	75	5.6-1	b L	Got up for place ins

3Orb of the BoroL. Batista · D. HenrichBatista · HenrichC56 55 48▼-4↕@trip 7815-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -456 55 48 ↕@trip 78C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 55 48
Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Darren Henrich
Also today · Jockey R3: Silver Candice 5-1, R4: Gametime Gladiator 4-1, R7: Dean Delivers 5-1
★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here
Has moved up each time out, 48 to 55 to 56. The Jul 28 work, 4F in :48.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 28 (4F in :48.60), 0 works in 30d
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 3 here: 23 wins, 80 top-3 in 161 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 MNR 5½f D Clm 4k n2x 8th/9 -12L 56 63-1 b L Faded on the turn
9/22 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n2x 9th/9 -4¼L 55 20-1 b L Never involved
9/7 MNR 5½f D Clm 4k b 7th/7 -7¼L 48 4.0-1 b L Stopped

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	8th/9 -12L	56	63-1	b L	Faded on the turn
9/22	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	9th/9 -4¼L	55	20-1	b L	Never involved
9/7	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k b	7th/7 -7¼L	48	4.0-1	b L	Stopped

4Priority LaneLSR. Dumont · J. SilvaDumont · SilvaC57 54 83▼▼-14↕@trip 8012-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1457 54 83 ↕@trip 80CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–83 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 54 83

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Reynaldo Dumont 14% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Vroysky 10-1, R3: Special Note 20-1, R5: Bowling Blue 8-1 · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK5/9 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 83 against 80 for the next best. Sheds 10 pounds from its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Dec 4; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	10th/10 -10L	57	11-1	b L	Chased; gave way lane
9/6	MNR	5f D	ROC 40-60	6th/6 -6¼L	54	30-1	b L	Brief speed
7/21	MNR	5½f D	ROC 20-40	Won/5	83	2.3-1	b L	Prevailed abreast foe

5Uncle TrulyD. Parker · E. CloustonParker · CloustonB59 78 77▼▼-19↕@trip 808-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1959 78 77 ↕@trip 80B2
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 78 77
Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Edward Clouston 36% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Super Smooth 3-1, R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R5: Estrella Silver 10-1, R6: Buxtehude 7-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Vroysky 10-1, R4: John's Rock 8-1
2/4 board here
Class relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today. Worked 4F in :49.40 on Jun 28, 2nd of 9 at the distance.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 127 days ago
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD D L Parker from post 5 here: 10 wins, 26 top-3 in 45 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 MNR 6f D Clm 10k 5th/6 -7L 59 4.5-1 b L Evenly; faded lane
9/13 MNR 6f D Clm 7k 4th/5 -4½L 78 2.6-1 b L Chased; weakened;
8/5 MNR 6f D Clm 7k 2nd/5 -3L 77 0.3-1 b L Gaining too late

6Team Leyendecker▼L. Tapara · A. RobillardTapara · RobillardB71 73 68►≡@trip 797-1Fair 12-17%► Steady71 73 68 ≡@trip 79B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–73 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 73 68

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Alysha Robillard 24% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Yes I Am Free 3-1, R3: Marmara 8-1, R4: My Two Aunt Joans 7-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1 · Trainer R4: My Two Aunt Joans 7-1

11/17 board here

Sat 4th of 9 early last time. Finished 6th in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 8½ lengths.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on May 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 11 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Luis Tapara from post 6 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 75 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	6th/9 -8½L	71	4.8-1	b L	Evenly; needed more
9/29	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/10 by 3	73	3.1-1	b L	Surged up wire 5 wide
9/8	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1x	4th/9	68	2.1-1	b L	Brushed stretch

7Dr. ZarnettY. Yaranga · H. AndradeYaranga · AndradeA74 73 71►≡@trip 775-1Fair 7-112%► Steady74 73 71 ≡@trip 77A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–74 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 73 71

Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Hugo Andrade 25% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP

2nd of 16 at 4F on Oct 6, in :48.20. Last out was 4th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 27d ago

RECORD Y Yaranga from post 7 here: 14 wins, 43 top-3 in 99 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -8L	74	4.9-1	b L	Evenly; gained late
9/15	TDN	6f D	sClm7500	6th/7 -4½L	73	5.5-1	b L	Inside; evenly
8/28	BTP	1 1/16 D	sBckeyeNatv75k	8th/11 -8¾L	71	179-1	b	Off slow;swung widest

8ChristensenK. Gonzalez · S. StanoszekGonzalez · StanoszekC63 62 69▼-6@trip 7710-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -663 62 69@trip 77C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 62 69

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Sara Stanoszek 16% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1 +3 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 3F work of its morning on Sep 12 (:36.40), a sign it is training forwardly. 7th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 12; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 8 here: 13 wins, 54 top-3 in 132 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/9 -10L	63	13-1	b L	Played no factor
9/30	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/10 -11L	62	4.2-1	b L	Played no factor
8/26	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/8 -7L	69	4.5-1	b L	Mild rally; fin well

9H C HolidayL. Negron · M. ArriagaNegron · ArriagaC55 62 70▼▼-14@trip 7020-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1455 62 70@trip 70C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 62 70

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 7-for-45 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Mario Arriaga 23% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Mykonos 2-1, R2: Undalay 15-1, R4: John's Rock 8-1, R5: R Candy 20-1 +1 more

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Figures have slipped: 70, 62, 55 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.40 on Aug 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Luis Negron from post 9 here: 11 wins, 37 top-3 in 70 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	8th/10 -15L	55	7.1-1	L	Never involved
10/5	MNR	5½f D	Clm 3k b	4th/7 -7L	62	8.9-1	L	Checked rail past 7/16
8/7	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/6 -3½L	70	12-1	L	Rail; leveled off

10Bohemian StyleE. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleA76 70 61▲+7@trip 784-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +776 70 61@trip 78A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 70 61

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Mr. Bones 15-1, R3: A Little Bit Crazy 15-1, R4: Self Taught 10-1 · Trainer R3: A Little Bit Crazy 15-1, R4: Self Taught 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/6 board here

Has moved up each time out, 61 to 70 to 76. Best recent figure of 76 sits right around the 79 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Feb 28; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	2nd/9 -4L	76	4.4-1	b L	Chased surged gamely;
9/23	MNR	5f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/6	70	0.8-1	b L	Narrow lead; gamely;
7/1	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k bc	3rd/7 -2L	61	0.3-1	b L	Pressed pace; short

11Julie's Ferrari▼K. Gonzalez · G. WelshGonzalez · WelshC73 67 65▲+6≡@trip 707-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +673 67 65 ≡@trip 70C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 65–73 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 67 65

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Gary R Welsh 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1 +3 more

★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/19 from post 11

Gets a new rider, Kevin Gonzalez replacing D L Parker. Has moved up each time out, 65 to 67 to 73.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 13; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gonzalez has never won from post 11 here (3 top-3 in 19 rides) · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/9 -7L	73	6.9-1	L	Chased even finish
9/30	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	6th/10 -6¾L	67	17-1	L	Evenly; lacked more
8/12	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	4th/9 -6½L	65	10-1	L	Rallied to lane short

12Cugine▼J. Skerrett · J. RomeroSkerrett · RomeroC68 65 70▲+5@trip 7020-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +568 65 70@trip 70C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 65 70

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jose A Romero 26% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Patriarchal 2-1 · Trainer R1: Guess Im Just Good 20-1

Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 67d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/9 -7½L	68	24-1	b L	Evenly; lacked more
10/6	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	5th/5 -9L	65	7.5-1	b L	Chased pace; tired
9/20	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/9 by ½	70	30-1	b L	Edged clear between

13Candy NunG. Terraza · N. AlvarezTerraza · AlvarezC47 70 76▼▼-27↕12-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -2747 70 76 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–76 · Last 3 figs 47 70 76

Jockey German Terraza 22% career · Trainer Nery Alvarez 25% career

CLASS DROP

Was running in $7,500 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Chased 4wd; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 7 (4F in :49.00), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k b	6th/7 -11L	47	3.3-1	L	Chased 4wd; faltered
10/2	BTP	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k b	4th/7 -2½L	70	2.4-1	L	Between 2-3p; evenly
8/26	BTP	1 1/16 D	OC 12k	4th/5 -5½L	76	12-1	b L	Evenly; eq amb

14King MianoA. Gomez · M. ValdezGomez · ValdezB71 63 65▲▲+16↕@trip 716-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +1671 63 65 ↕@trip 71B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 63 65

Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Moises Valdez 21% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Opposite The Crowd 5-1

WON LAST

Drops from $5,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming. A 71 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/23	PID	6f D	Clm 5k b	Won/5	71	17-1	b L	Well rated; unchalleng
9/15	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n1x	2nd/6 by hd	63	1.9-1	b L	Dueled ins; weakened;
8/10	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n1x	4th/10 by hd	65	7.6-1	b L	Hooked turn weakened;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

14 runners

Purse

$9,000

Post

9:55 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 24%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Lomachenko (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 70 · 75. Backup is #5 Uncle Truly at 8-1. Use #10 Bohemian Style in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 LOMACHENKO (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 LOMACHENKO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 20.0%).
#10 BOHEMIAN STYLE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 12.0%).
#7 DR. ZARNETT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.9% to their 10.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 UNCLE TRULY (8-1) — our fair 8.6% is above the morning line's 6.7%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (35%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Priority Lane; pressure from #10 Bohemian Style, #11 Julie's Ferrari; the shape helps #8 Christensen; and works against #4 Priority Lane, #10 Bohemian Style, #11 Julie's Ferrari.

Lead

4Priority Lane8610Bohemian Style8611Julie's Ferrari8514King Miano85

Press

5Uncle Truly831Grey Streak8212Cugine73

Stalk

13Candy Nun872Lomachenko846Team Leyendecker833Orb Of The Boro827Dr. Zarnett769H C Holiday76

8Christensen72

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Candy Nun

Priority Lane

Bohemian Style

Julie's Ferrari

King Miano

Lomachenko

Uncle Truly

Team Leyendecker

Grey Streak

Orb Of The Boro

Dr. Zarnett

H C Holiday

Cugine

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Christensen

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