Pick sheet

Race 37:50 PM Alw 3200s

5.5F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Flight Control, is 41% to win (morning line implies 34%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Flight Control ML 7-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 ▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 77 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J. Leon · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 3: 1-1-1 · Dist 4: 2-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 74 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	MNR	4½f D	Clm 3k n2y	Won/6	86	0.7-1	L	Drew off driving;
8/25	MNR	2f D	Clm 7k	3rd/7 -2¼L	66	1.7-1	L	Chased to wire
6/29	MNR	4½f D	Clm 5k n2y	Won/5	80	0.4-1	L	Weary late held on

Case: Last out won in the fClm3200n2y at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 86-66-80. Best at today's distance 74. 2-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / J. Leon.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Girl Bye ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best ↕ Up and down 54–77 ▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77

Jockey Y. Yaranga · Trainer J. Fletcher · KEE 18: 2-4-4 · Dist 31: 4-8-7 · best fig at 5½f dirt 77 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/7	77	4.1-1	b L	Clear turn; drew off;
9/30	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/6	69	0.3-1	b L	Sharp; much the best
9/14	MNR	4½f D	Clm 3k n2y	2nd/6 -6½L	68	7.0-1	b L	Chased; saved place

Case: Last out won in the fClm4000n2x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 77-69-68. Best at today's distance 77. 4-for-31 at the distance. 2-for-18 at Mountaineer Park. J. Fletcher / Y. Yaranga.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #7 Silver Candice ML 5-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -14 Last out 4th/6 -3½L in the Alw4000s at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 52-72-68. Best at today's distance 77. 4-for-17 at the distance. 5-for-16 at Mountaineer Park. J. Robillard / L. Batista. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Batista · Trainer J. Robillard · KEE 16: 5-2-1 · Dist 17: 4-4-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 77 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	MNR	2f D	Alw s	4th/6 -3½L	52	16-1	b	Needed more
9/23	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/7	72	2.6-1	b	Drew clear; driving;
9/2	MNR	5½f D	Clm 3k b	2nd/9 -2L	68	6.3-1	b	Bid 3deep out gamed

Longshot #1 Later Days ML 20-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 51–74

Jockey R. Barrios · Trainer D. Treharne · KEE 30: 11-7-3 · Dist 27: 6-5-3 · best fig at 5½f dirt 74 · 91 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/3	MNR	5½f D	Clm 3k n2y	Won/9 by 3	73	2.2-1	b L	Up in final strides
7/22	MNR	5½f D	ROC 20-40	6th/9 -6L	62	7.9-1	b L	Faded on the turn
6/7	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/9 by 2	74	1.1-1	b L	Rallied up abreast foe

Case: Last out won in the fClm3200n2y at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 73-62-74. Best at today's distance 74. 6-for-27 at the distance. 11-for-30 at Mountaineer Park. D. Treharne / R. Barrios.

Knock: Off 91 days.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #7 · B #1, #6, #9 · C #3, #4, #8

Angles: #2 Last fig 86 at/above par 77 · #2 Lone speed on early pace · #3 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 Last fig 77 at/above par 77 · #8 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #9 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77

R3 Mountaineer Park · State-Bred Allowance · $14,000 purse

7:50 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $14,000 · 9 runners7:50 PM · 5½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $14K · State-Bred Allowance · $14,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Later DaysLSR. Barrios · D. TreharneBarrios · TreharneB73 62 74▲▲+11↕@trip 7420-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +1173 62 74 ↕@trip 74BLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 62 74

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-42 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Dave Treharne 32% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Kool Kathmandu 20-1, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R5: Red Delicious 15-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST7/13 board here

Won last out in a 9-horse $3,200 claiming race at MNR. Freshened 91 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 205d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 1 here: 26 wins, 85 top-3 in 166 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/3	MNR	5½f D	Clm 3k n2y	Won/9 by 3	73	2.2-1	b L	Up in final strides
7/22	MNR	5½f D	ROC 20-40	6th/9 -6L	62	7.9-1	b L	Faded on the turn
6/7	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/9 by 2	74	1.1-1	b L	Rallied up abreast foe

2Flight Control▲▲J. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaA86 66 80▲▲+11@trip 747-5Fair 7-541%▲▲ Big jump +1186 66 80@trip 74A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace1
Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 66 80
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Chester Good 10-1, R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1, R6: Diamond Dancer 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1, R6: Opposite The Crowd 5-1 +2 more
CLASS DROPWON LAST3/3 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 77 for the next best. Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew off driving.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 213d ago
RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)
RECORD Jose A Leon from post 2 here: 5 wins, 25 top-3 in 74 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/14 MNR 4½f D Clm 3k n2y Won/6 86 0.7-1 L Drew off driving;
8/25 MNR 2f D Clm 7k 3rd/7 -2¼L 66 1.7-1 L Chased to wire
6/29 MNR 4½f D Clm 5k n2y Won/5 80 0.4-1 L Weary late held on
3Special Note▼R. Dumont · K. KnudsenDumont · KnudsenC47 59 48▼-7@trip 5420-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -747 59 48@trip 54C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 59 48
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Reynaldo Dumont 14% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Kent Knudsen 32% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Vroysky 10-1, R5: Bowling Blue 8-1, R8: Priority Lane 12-1
CLASS UP
Drops from optional claiming to starter allowance. Last out was 7th, 19 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at MNR.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.60 on Apr 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 7 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 MNR 6f D OC 10k 7th/8 -19L 47 87-1 b L Faded on the turn
9/23 MNR 5f D Clm 3k 3rd/4 by nk 59 10-1 b L Hooked ins weakened;
9/6 MNR 5f D Alw s 7th/7 -10L 48 63-1 b L Tired
4A Little Bit Crazy▼E. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleC53 59 66▼▼-11@trip 7215-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1153 59 66@trip 72C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 59 66
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Mr. Bones 15-1, R4: Self Taught 10-1, R8: Bohemian Style 4-1 · Trainer R4: Self Taught 10-1, R8: Bohemian Style 4-1
CLASS DROP5/10 board here
Trending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 59 to 53. 3rd of 35 at 4F on Oct 12, in :48.60.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 198d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Elijah Greenidge from post 4 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 25 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 MNR 6f D Clm 3k n3x 5th/5 -1½L 53 2.1-1 b L No threat
9/27 MNR 5f T Clm 5k 8th/9 -8½L 59 4.9-1 b L Never involved
9/14 MNR 6f D Clm 7k 4th/8 -¾L 66 5.8-1 b L Loomed lacked punch

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	7th/8 -19L	47	87-1	b L	Faded on the turn
9/23	MNR	5f D	Clm 3k	3rd/4 by nk	59	10-1	b L	Hooked ins weakened;
9/6	MNR	5f D	Alw s	7th/7 -10L	48	63-1	b L	Tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k n3x	5th/5 -1½L	53	2.1-1	b L	No threat
9/27	MNR	5f T	Clm 5k	8th/9 -8½L	59	4.9-1	b L	Never involved
9/14	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k	4th/8 -¾L	66	5.8-1	b L	Loomed lacked punch

5Girl Bye▲Y. Yaranga · J. FletcherYaranga · FletcherA77 69 68▲▲+13↕@trip 773-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best77 69 68 ↕@trip 77A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 772

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 69 68

▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77

Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jeff Fletcher 26% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1, R5: Kim's Money 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Yes I Am Free 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST9/14 board here

Winner of a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR last time. Class relief: $4,000 claiming last time, starter allowance today.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Clear turn; drew off.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Apr 18; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 9 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Y Yaranga from post 5 here: 12 wins, 57 top-3 in 143 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/7	77	4.1-1	b L	Clear turn; drew off;
9/30	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/6	69	0.3-1	b L	Sharp; much the best
9/14	MNR	4½f D	Clm 3k n2y	2nd/6 -6½L	68	7.0-1	b L	Chased; saved place

6MarmaraL. Tapara · G. ShaferTapara · ShaferB66 63 62►≡@trip 698-1Fair 10-19%► Steady66 63 62 ≡@trip 69B
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 62–69 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 63 62
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 28
Also today · Jockey R2: Yes I Am Free 3-1, R4: My Two Aunt Joans 7-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1, R8: Team Leyendecker 7-1 · Trainer R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R6: Maci's World 2-1, R8: Grey Streak 15-1
WON LAST3/6 board here
Gets a new rider, Luis Tapara replacing Ricardo Barrios. A 69 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 498d back)
RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD Luis Tapara from post 6 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 75 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 MNR 6f D Clm 3k n3x Won/5 66 2.5-1 b L Driving
9/30 MNR 7f T OC 7k 6th/8 -11L 63 51-1 b L Played no factor
9/15 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n1l 4th/9 -4L 62 7.2-1 b L Chased pace weakened;
7Silver CandiceL. Batista · J. RobillardBatista · RobillardA52 72 68▼▼-14@trip 775-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1452 72 68@trip 77A3
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 72 68
Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Julie Robillard 24% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Gametime Gladiator 4-1, R7: Dean Delivers 5-1, R8: Orb Of The Boro 15-1 · Trainer R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R4: Gametime Gladiator 4-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1
★ FASTEST WORK
A longer trip: 2 furlongs last out, 5½ furlongs today. The May 26 work, 3F in :35.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.80 on May 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 11 starts here
RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 7 here: 33 wins, 76 top-3 in 166 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 MNR 2f D Alw s 4th/6 -3½L 52 16-1 b Needed more
9/23 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n2x Won/7 72 2.6-1 b Drew clear; driving;
9/2 MNR 5½f D Clm 3k b 2nd/9 -2L 68 6.3-1 b Bid 3deep out gamed
8Cloudy Bay▼A. Ramgeet · T. RamgeetRamgeet · RamgeetC67 56 65▲▲+8@trip 7020-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +867 56 65@trip 70C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 56 65
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey A R Ramgeet 29% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tina Ramgeet 28% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R5: I'Ve Had Enough 6-1 · Trainer R5: I'Ve Had Enough 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Was running in $4,000 claiming; today's starter allowance is an easier level on paper. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 77 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Mar 31 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 17 starts here
RECORD A R Ramgeet from post 8 here: 7 wins, 16 top-3 in 32 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 5½f D Clm 4k b 2nd/7 -5L 67 11-1 b L Held second
9/16 MNR 1m D Clm 5k 5th/6 -8L 56 19-1 b L Rushed clear; wore out
8/31 MNR 1m T Clm 5k 3rd/8 65 6.0-1 b L Set pace; weakened ins
9Golden Charm▼K. Gonzalez · D. EwellGonzalez · EwellB61 71 64▼-6@trip 7110-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -661 71 64@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 71 64
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Devan Sr Ewell 17% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1, R6: Kittyup 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: Del Rey Dolly 12-1
CLASS DROP3/4 board here
Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 4th of 5 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 346d back)
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 9 here: 10 wins, 32 top-3 in 102 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 MNR 6f D Clm 3k n3x 2nd/5 -1L 61 2.5-1 L Rallied
9/29 MNR 5½f D Clm 7k 3rd/7 -4½L 71 23-1 L Belatedly right there
8/2 MNR 5½f D Alw s 7th/8 -11L 64 32-1 L Played no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k n3x	Won/5	66	2.5-1	b L	Driving
9/30	MNR	7f T	OC 7k	6th/8 -11L	63	51-1	b L	Played no factor
9/15	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	4th/9 -4L	62	7.2-1	b L	Chased pace weakened;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k b	2nd/7 -5L	67	11-1	b L	Held second
9/16	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	5th/6 -8L	56	19-1	b L	Rushed clear; wore out
8/31	MNR	1m T	Clm 5k	3rd/8	65	6.0-1	b L	Set pace; weakened ins

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	MNR	6f D	Clm 3k n3x	2nd/5 -1L	61	2.5-1	L	Rallied
9/29	MNR	5½f D	Clm 7k	3rd/7 -4½L	71	23-1	L	Belatedly right there
8/2	MNR	5½f D	Alw s	7th/8 -11L	64	32-1	L	Played no factor

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $14,000 purse

Field

9 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

7:50 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 41%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.26

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Flight Control (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 86 · 66 · 80. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Girl Bye at 3-1. Use #7 Silver Candice in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 FLIGHT CONTROL (7-5) — our number agrees.
#2 FLIGHT CONTROL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (34.1% to their 33.6%).
#5 GIRL BYE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 20.1%).
#7 SILVER CANDICE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 13.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 LATER DAYS (20-1) — our fair 4.8% is above the morning line's 3.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Girl Bye; pressure from #2 Flight Control, #3 Special Note; the shape helps #1 Later Days, #2 Flight Control, #3 Special Note; and works against #5 Girl Bye.

Lead

5Girl Bye95

Press

2Flight Control983Special Note951Later Days916Marmara904A Little Bit Crazy867Silver Candice

Stalk

8Cloudy Bay87

9Golden Charm85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Flight Control

Special Note

Girl Bye

Later Days

Marmara

Cloudy Bay

A Little Bit Crazy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Golden Charm

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

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