Pick sheet
Race 69:05 PM Alw 4000s
6F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Maci's World, is 26% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
Top pick #6 Maci's World ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +7
Jockey Y. Yaranga · Trainer G. Shafer · KEE 36: 7-6-5 · Dist 15: 3-3-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 70 · 34 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/29MNR5½f DClm 7kWon/7 by 2726.8-1b LUp on wire ten wide
9/6MNR5f DAlw s3rd/7 -5L6813-1b LGained show
8/23MNR6f DOC 10k4th/6 -12L6124-1b LPlayed no factor
Case: Last out won in the fClm7500 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 72-68-61. Best at today's distance 70. 3-for-15 at the distance. 7-for-36 at Mountaineer Park. G. Shafer / Y. Yaranga.
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Contender #7 Diamond Dancer ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +4 ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 80
Jockey J. Leon · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 3: 3-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 72 · 27 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/6MNR4½f DClm 4k n3xWon/6 by 2½660.6-1b LSteady advance clear
8/19MNR5f DClm 15k n2xWon/8 by 3½641.3-1b LLate burst mid track
8/11MNR5½f DMCL 4kcWon/9660.3-1b LDrew clear; driving;
Case: Last out won in the fClm4000n3x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 66-64-66. Best at today's distance 72. 0-for-2 at the distance. 3-for-3 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / J. Leon.
Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.
Use #3 Opposite the Crowd ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 6th/7 -11L in the fRHP 40-60 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 68-71-75. Best at today's distance 75. 7-for-23 at the distance. 3-for-7 at Mountaineer Park. J. Silva / A. Gomez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Jockey A. Gomez · Trainer J. Silva · KEE 7: 3-1-1 · Dist 23: 7-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 20 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/13MNR6f DRHP 40-606th/7 -11L689.2-1b LNo factor
9/14MNR6f DClm 7kWon/8 by 1¾711.8-1b LBumped in tight break
9/6MNR5f DAlw sWon/7 by 3758.0-1b LDriving
Longshot #9 Take Wings ML 20-1 Fair 15-1 Model #7 ▼ Down -7
Jockey B. Whitacre · Trainer W. Langley · KEE 12: 1-4-1 · Dist 6: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 52 · 48 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/15MNR6f DOC 10k6th/8 -11L5232-1b LChased tired inside
8/25MNR1m DAlw s8th/8 -14L472.9-1b LPressed pace; spent
8/17MNR5f DAlw s2nd/6 -3L621.2-1b LCame again late for 2d
Case: Last out 6th/8 -11L in the fOC10000 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 52-47-62. Best at today's distance 52. 0-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-12 at Mountaineer Park. W. Langley / B. Whitacre.
Knock: 0-for-6 at the distance.
★ Distance horse: #1 Del Rey Dolly (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 87 from 4 tries, record at the distance 23: 10-3-3. Not one of our picks.
Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #6 · B #1, #7, #8 · C #2, #4, #9
Angles: #2 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #7 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #8 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80

R6 Mountaineer Park · State-Bred Allowance · $15,000 purse

9:05 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $15,000 · 9 runners9:05 PM · 6f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $15K · State-Bred Allowance · $15,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Del Rey Dolly (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 87 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Del Rey Dolly★A. Bracho · D. EwellBracho · EwellB63 70 77▼▼-9@trip 8712-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -963 70 77@trip 87B★ Best at the trip 87

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 70 77

    ★ Best at the trip 87
    Jockey Augustin Bracho 35% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Devan Sr Ewell 17% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Trainer R3: Golden Charm 10-1
    6/10 board here

    Class relief: $7,500 claiming last time, starter allowance today. Tops the field on speed figures, a 77 against 75 for the next best.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 222d back
    RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Augustin Bracho from post 1 here: 10 wins, 34 top-3 in 67 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/29MNR5½f DClm 7k6th/7 -6½L636.3-1b LPressed early faded
    8/19MNR5f DAlw s3rd/6 -4L701.2-1b LPress thru turn short
    8/2MNR5½f DAlw sWon/8 by hd7713-1b LExtended up abreast
  2. 2Fortunata Italia▼J. Monserrate Jr. · C. PickettMonserrate Jr. · PickettC49 62 62►↕@trip 6615-1Fair 50-12%► Steady49 62 62 ↕@trip 66C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–62 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 62 62

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Jorge A Jr Monserrate 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Crystal G Pickett 20% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Starcry 20-1
    0/6 board here

    Finished 8th in an 8-horse optional claiming race at MNR, beaten 16 lengths. Best recent figure is 62, well under the 80 par for this level.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 99d ago)
    RECORD Not on the board in 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/15MNR6f DOC 10k8th/8 -16L4938-1LAlways outrun
    8/17MNR5f DAlw s4th/6 -6L6244-1LPlayed no factor
    8/2MNR5½f DAlw s8th/8 -11L6276-1LAlways outrun
  3. 3Opposite the CrowdA. Gomez · J. SilvaGomez · SilvaA68 71 75►@trip 755-1Fair 7-113%► Steady68 71 75@trip 75A3

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 71 75

    Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R8: King Miano 6-1 · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +2 more
    5/8 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 75 to 71 to 68. Last out was 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at MNR.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 268d ago)
    RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here
    RECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 3 here: 8 wins, 20 top-3 in 50 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/13MNR6f DRHP 40-606th/7 -11L689.2-1b LNo factor
    9/14MNR6f DClm 7kWon/8 by 1¾711.8-1b LBumped in tight break
    9/6MNR5f DAlw sWon/7 by 3758.0-1b LDriving
  4. 4Kittyup▼K. Gonzalez · F. GerichGonzalez · GerichC68 58 62▲+3@trip 7410-1Fair 10-18%▲ Up +368 58 62@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 58 62

    ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80
    Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Frank Gerich 22% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1 +3 more
    CLASS DROPWON LAST3/6 board here

    2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 302d back
    RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here
    RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 4 here: 25 wins, 82 top-3 in 217 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/22MNR6f DClm 4k bWon/7687.3-1b LLed inside dug in late
    8/3MNR6f DClm 7k b5th/6 -1¼L585.3-1b LInside; faded late
    7/6MNR1m DClm 4k b4th/10 -6L624.5-1b LStalked pace; faded
  5. 5Best VirginiaM. Vilchez · M. SandersVilchez · SandersA72 67 33▲▲+19↕@trip 766-1Fair 10-18%▲▲ Big jump +1972 67 33 ↕@trip 76A

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–72 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 67 33

    Jockey Maikol Vilchez 19% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Melinda Sanders 16% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet
    WON LAST7/10 board here

    Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's starter allowance is an easier level on paper.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 136d back
    RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Maikol Vilchez from post 5 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 40 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/5MNR1m DClm 5k n3xWon/57214-1b LFound more gamely
    9/2MNR1m DClm 5k n2yWon/66710-1b LDug in gamely late
    7/28MNR1m DClm 4k b9th/9 -15L3317-1b LGave way turn
  6. 6Maci's WorldY. Yaranga · G. ShaferYaranga · ShaferA72 68 61▲+7@trip 702-1Fair 3-126%▲ Up +772 68 61@trip 70A1

    Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 68 61

    Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 28
    Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Marmara 8-1, R8: Grey Streak 15-1
    WON LAST5/8 board here

    A big drop, $7,500 claiming to starter allowance, and worth asking why. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 96d back
    RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here
    RECORD Y Yaranga from post 6 here: 19 wins, 53 top-3 in 118 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/29MNR5½f DClm 7kWon/7 by 2726.8-1b LUp on wire ten wide
    9/6MNR5f DAlw s3rd/7 -5L6813-1b LGained show
    8/23MNR6f DOC 10k4th/6 -12L6124-1b LPlayed no factor
  7. 7Diamond Dancer▼J. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaB66 64 66▲+4@trip 723-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +466 64 66@trip 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 802

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 64 66

    ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 80
    Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Chester Good 10-1, R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +2 more
    CLASS DROPWON LAST3/3 board here

    Stretches out from 4½ furlongs to 6 furlongs. Winner of a 6-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 51d back
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (3 wins)
    RECORD Jose A Leon from post 7 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6MNR4½f DClm 4k n3xWon/6 by 2½660.6-1b LSteady advance clear
    8/19MNR5f DClm 15k n2xWon/8 by 3½641.3-1b LLate burst mid track
    8/11MNR5½f DMCL 4kcWon/9660.3-1b LDrew clear; driving;
  8. 8Buxtehude▼D. Parker · J. JohnsonParker · JohnsonB69 68 67►≡@trip 697-1Fair 10-19%► Steady69 68 67 ≡@trip 69B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–69 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 67

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80
    Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Jennifer A Johnson 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Super Smooth 3-1, R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R5: Estrella Silver 10-1, R7: Dance Code 12-1 +1 more
    CLASS DROPWON LAST6/10 board here

    Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 69 against a 80 par. Winner of a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 132d ago)
    RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD D L Parker from post 8 here: 7 wins, 20 top-3 in 32 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11MNR6f DClm 7k bWon/6693.6-1bDriving
    9/23MNR5f DClm 15k n3x4th/9 -3L688.7-1bChased even finish2p
    9/14MNR5f DClm 10k n2xWon/6670.9-1bAbreast cleared late
  9. 9Take WingsLSB. Whitacre · W. LangleyWhitacre · LangleyC52 47 62▼-7@trip 5220-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -752 47 62@trip 52CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 52 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 47 62

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey B Whitacre 32% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wilson C Langley 27% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    ★ FASTEST WORK8/14 board here

    Jockey switch: Ricardo Barrios last out, B Whitacre today. A 48-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.80 on Apr 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 14 starts here
    RECORD B Whitacre from post 9 here: 4 wins, 11 top-3 in 40 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/15MNR6f DOC 10k6th/8 -11L5232-1b LChased tired inside
    8/25MNR1m DAlw s8th/8 -14L472.9-1b LPressed pace; spent
    8/17MNR5f DAlw s2nd/6 -3L621.2-1b LCame again late for 2d

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $15,000 purse

Field
9 runners
Purse
$15,000
Post
9:05 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#6 · 26%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Maci's World (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 68 · 61. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Diamond Dancer at 3-1. Use #3 Opposite The Crowd in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 MACI'S WORLD (2-1) — our number agrees.
  • #6 MACI'S WORLD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.2% to their 25.7%).
  • #7 DIAMOND DANCER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.3%).
  • #3 OPPOSITE THE CROWD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 TAKE WINGS (20-1) — our fair 4.4% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Take Wings; pressure from #1 Del Rey Dolly, #4 Kittyup; the shape helps #1 Del Rey Dolly, #4 Kittyup, #5 Best Virginia; and works against #9 Take Wings.

Lead
9Take Wings91
Press
1Del Rey Dolly964Kittyup915Best Virginia898Buxtehude887Diamond Dancer82
Stalk
6Maci's World95
Close
3Opposite The Crowd792Fortunata Italia67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
Del Rey Dolly
96
6
Maci's World
95
4
Kittyup
91
9
Take Wings
91
5
Best Virginia
89
8
Buxtehude
88
7
Diamond Dancer
82

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

3
Opposite The Crowd
21
2
Fortunata Italia
20
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