| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29 | MNR | 5½f D | Clm 7k | Won/7 by 2 | 72 | 6.8-1 | b L | Up on wire ten wide |
| 9/6 | MNR | 5f D | Alw s | 3rd/7 -5L | 68 | 13-1 | b L | Gained show |
| 8/23 | MNR | 6f D | OC 10k | 4th/6 -12L | 61 | 24-1 | b L | Played no factor |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/6 | MNR | 4½f D | Clm 4k n3x | Won/6 by 2½ | 66 | 0.6-1 | b L | Steady advance clear |
| 8/19 | MNR | 5f D | Clm 15k n2x | Won/8 by 3½ | 64 | 1.3-1 | b L | Late burst mid track |
| 8/11 | MNR | 5½f D | MCL 4kc | Won/9 | 66 | 0.3-1 | b L | Drew clear; driving; |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13 | MNR | 6f D | RHP 40-60 | 6th/7 -11L | 68 | 9.2-1 | b L | No factor |
| 9/14 | MNR | 6f D | Clm 7k | Won/8 by 1¾ | 71 | 1.8-1 | b L | Bumped in tight break |
| 9/6 | MNR | 5f D | Alw s | Won/7 by 3 | 75 | 8.0-1 | b L | Driving |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/15 | MNR | 6f D | OC 10k | 6th/8 -11L | 52 | 32-1 | b L | Chased tired inside |
| 8/25 | MNR | 1m D | Alw s | 8th/8 -14L | 47 | 2.9-1 | b L | Pressed pace; spent |
| 8/17 | MNR | 5f D | Alw s | 2nd/6 -3L | 62 | 1.2-1 | b L | Came again late for 2d |
★ Distance horse: #1 Del Rey Dolly (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 87 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.
1Del Rey Dolly★A. Bracho · D. EwellBracho · EwellB63 70 77▼▼-9@trip 8712-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -963 70 77@trip 87B★ Best at the trip 87Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 70 77
★ Best at the trip 87Jockey Augustin Bracho 35% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Devan Sr Ewell 17% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)6/10 board hereClass relief: $7,500 claiming last time, starter allowance today. Tops the field on speed figures, a 77 against 75 for the next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 222d backRECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Augustin Bracho from post 1 here: 10 wins, 34 top-3 in 67 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/29 MNR 5½f D Clm 7k 6th/7 -6½L 63 6.3-1 b L Pressed early faded 8/19 MNR 5f D Alw s 3rd/6 -4L 70 1.2-1 b L Press thru turn short 8/2 MNR 5½f D Alw s Won/8 by hd 77 13-1 b L Extended up abreast 2Fortunata Italia▼J. Monserrate Jr. · C. PickettMonserrate Jr. · PickettC49 62 62►↕@trip 6615-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady49 62 62 ↕@trip 66C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–62 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 62 62
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Jorge A Jr Monserrate 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Crystal G Pickett 20% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet0/6 board hereFinished 8th in an 8-horse optional claiming race at MNR, beaten 16 lengths. Best recent figure is 62, well under the 80 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 99d ago)RECORD Not on the board in 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/15 MNR 6f D OC 10k 8th/8 -16L 49 38-1 L Always outrun 8/17 MNR 5f D Alw s 4th/6 -6L 62 44-1 L Played no factor 8/2 MNR 5½f D Alw s 8th/8 -11L 62 76-1 L Always outrun 3Opposite the CrowdA. Gomez · J. SilvaGomez · SilvaA68 71 75►@trip 755-1Fair 7-113%
► Steady68 71 75@trip 75A3Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 71 75
Jockey Alejandro Gomez 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R8: King Miano 6-1 · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +2 more5/8 board hereTrending the wrong way on speed, 75 to 71 to 68. Last out was 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at MNR.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 268d ago)RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Alejandro Gomez from post 3 here: 8 wins, 20 top-3 in 50 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/13 MNR 6f D RHP 40-60 6th/7 -11L 68 9.2-1 b L No factor 9/14 MNR 6f D Clm 7k Won/8 by 1¾ 71 1.8-1 b L Bumped in tight break 9/6 MNR 5f D Alw s Won/7 by 3 75 8.0-1 b L Driving 4Kittyup▼K. Gonzalez · F. GerichGonzalez · GerichC68 58 62▲+3@trip 7410-1Fair 10-18%
▲ Up +368 58 62@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 58 62
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Frank Gerich 22% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1 +3 moreCLASS DROPWON LAST3/6 board here2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 302d backRECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 4 here: 25 wins, 82 top-3 in 217 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/22 MNR 6f D Clm 4k b Won/7 68 7.3-1 b L Led inside dug in late 8/3 MNR 6f D Clm 7k b 5th/6 -1¼L 58 5.3-1 b L Inside; faded late 7/6 MNR 1m D Clm 4k b 4th/10 -6L 62 4.5-1 b L Stalked pace; faded 5Best VirginiaM. Vilchez · M. SandersVilchez · SandersA72 67 33▲▲+19↕@trip 766-1Fair 10-18%
▲▲ Big jump +1972 67 33 ↕@trip 76ACard model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–72 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 67 33
Jockey Maikol Vilchez 19% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Melinda Sanders 16% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meetWON LAST7/10 board hereShortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's starter allowance is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 136d backRECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Maikol Vilchez from post 5 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 40 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/5 MNR 1m D Clm 5k n3x Won/5 72 14-1 b L Found more gamely 9/2 MNR 1m D Clm 5k n2y Won/6 67 10-1 b L Dug in gamely late 7/28 MNR 1m D Clm 4k b 9th/9 -15L 33 17-1 b L Gave way turn 6Maci's WorldY. Yaranga · G. ShaferYaranga · ShaferA72 68 61▲+7@trip 702-1Fair 3-126%
▲ Up +772 68 61@trip 70A1Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 68 61
Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 28Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Marmara 8-1, R8: Grey Streak 15-1WON LAST5/8 board hereA big drop, $7,500 claiming to starter allowance, and worth asking why. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 96d backRECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Y Yaranga from post 6 here: 19 wins, 53 top-3 in 118 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/29 MNR 5½f D Clm 7k Won/7 by 2 72 6.8-1 b L Up on wire ten wide 9/6 MNR 5f D Alw s 3rd/7 -5L 68 13-1 b L Gained show 8/23 MNR 6f D OC 10k 4th/6 -12L 61 24-1 b L Played no factor 7Diamond Dancer▼J. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaB66 64 66▲+4@trip 723-1Fair 7-222%
▲ Up +466 64 66@trip 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 802Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 64 66
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R1: Chester Good 10-1, R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1 +2 moreCLASS DROPWON LAST3/3 board hereStretches out from 4½ furlongs to 6 furlongs. Winner of a 6-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 51d backRECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (3 wins)RECORD Jose A Leon from post 7 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 MNR 4½f D Clm 4k n3x Won/6 by 2½ 66 0.6-1 b L Steady advance clear 8/19 MNR 5f D Clm 15k n2x Won/8 by 3½ 64 1.3-1 b L Late burst mid track 8/11 MNR 5½f D MCL 4kc Won/9 66 0.3-1 b L Drew clear; driving; 8Buxtehude▼D. Parker · J. JohnsonParker · JohnsonB69 68 67►≡@trip 697-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady69 68 67 ≡@trip 69B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–69 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 67
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Jennifer A Johnson 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Super Smooth 3-1, R4: He's A Shooter 15-1, R5: Estrella Silver 10-1, R7: Dance Code 12-1 +1 moreCLASS DROPWON LAST6/10 board hereNeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 69 against a 80 par. Winner of a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 132d ago)RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD D L Parker from post 8 here: 7 wins, 20 top-3 in 32 rides · 20% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 MNR 6f D Clm 7k b Won/6 69 3.6-1 b Driving 9/23 MNR 5f D Clm 15k n3x 4th/9 -3L 68 8.7-1 b Chased even finish2p 9/14 MNR 5f D Clm 10k n2x Won/6 67 0.9-1 b Abreast cleared late 9Take WingsLSB. Whitacre · W. LangleyWhitacre · LangleyC52 47 62▼-7@trip 5220-1Fair 15-16%
▼ Down -752 47 62@trip 52CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 52 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 47 62
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey B Whitacre 32% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wilson C Langley 27% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORK8/14 board hereJockey switch: Ricardo Barrios last out, B Whitacre today. A 48-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.80 on Apr 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 14 starts hereRECORD B Whitacre from post 9 here: 4 wins, 11 top-3 in 40 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/15 MNR 6f D OC 10k 6th/8 -11L 52 32-1 b L Chased tired inside 8/25 MNR 1m D Alw s 8th/8 -14L 47 2.9-1 b L Pressed pace; spent 8/17 MNR 5f D Alw s 2nd/6 -3L 62 1.2-1 b L Came again late for 2d
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 6
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $15,000 purse
Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.81
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #6 Maci's World (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 68 · 61. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Diamond Dancer at 3-1. Use #3 Opposite The Crowd in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 MACI'S WORLD (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 MACI'S WORLD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.2% to their 25.7%).
- #7 DIAMOND DANCER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.3%).
- #3 OPPOSITE THE CROWD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 12.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 TAKE WINGS (20-1) — our fair 4.4% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Take Wings; pressure from #1 Del Rey Dolly, #4 Kittyup; the shape helps #1 Del Rey Dolly, #4 Kittyup, #5 Best Virginia; and works against #9 Take Wings.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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