Pick sheet

Race 48:15 PM ROC 20-40

1 Mi · Dirt · 13 entered. Our model's top pick, Patriarchal, is 26% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Patriarchal ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ★ Best at 1m dirt: 94

Jockey J. Skerrett · Trainer C. Vecchio · KEE 3: 0-2-0 · Dist 17: 7-2-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 94 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	1m D	OC 8k	Won/6	94	4.2-1	b L	Inside move;clr;lasted
9/29	MNR	1m D	Clm 10k	2nd/7 -5½L	84	1.8-1	b L	Finished well inside
9/14	TDN	1m D	Clm 5k	Won/7 by 3¾	81	0.7-1	b L	Late burst4w; clear

Case: Last out won in the OC8000 at TDN. Last Brisnet figures 94-84-81. Best at today's distance 94. 7-for-17 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Mountaineer Park. C. Vecchio / J. Skerrett.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Roundball Rock ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -17

Jockey C. Oliveros · Trainer O. Romero · KEE 4: 2-1-0 · Dist 24: 5-5-4 · best fig at 1m dirt 83 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k	9th/9 -13L	65	9.7-1	L	Off slow; never in it
10/6	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	Won/6	81	0.8-1	L	Set pace; held driving
9/27	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	2nd/6	81	1.5-1	L	Dug in 4wi; no match

Case: Last out 9th/9 -13L in the Clm7500 at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 65-81-81. Best at today's distance 83. 5-for-24 at the distance. 2-for-4 at Mountaineer Park. O. Romero / C. Oliveros.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #10 Gametime Gladiator ML 4-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 73–79 Last out won in the Clm3200c at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 79-76-78. Best at today's distance 79. 2-for-12 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Mountaineer Park. J. Robillard / L. Batista. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Batista · Trainer J. Robillard · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 12: 2-2-4 · best fig at 1m dirt 79 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 3k c	Won/6	79	0.5-1	b L	Abreast cleared late
10/1	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	7th/9 -5¼L	76	3.9-1	b L	Asked 7wd; no rally
9/18	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k b	Won/10 by 2½	78	3.0-1	b L	Gaining; up in time

Longshot #1 John's Rock ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ► Steady ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey L. Negron · Trainer E. Clouston · KEE 7: 2-2-3 · Dist 37: 10-7-10 · best fig at 1m dirt 85 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	3rd/6 -4½L	75	4.5-1	b L	Mild rally held others
8/4	TDN	1m D	OC 8k v	10th/10 -8L	69	20-1	b L	Through after half
7/15	MNR	1m D	OC 12k	3rd/6 -7½L	72	0.8-1	b L	Weakened; even finish

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm5000n3x at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 75-69-72. Best at today's distance 85. 10-for-37 at the distance. 2-for-7 at Mountaineer Park. E. Clouston / L. Negron.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #10, #13 · B #2, #3, #5 · C #1, #4, #7, #8, #9, #11, #12

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Lone speed on early pace

R4 Mountaineer Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

8:15 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $11,000 · 13 runners8:15 PM · 1m Dirt · 13 runners

Upcoming $11K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1John's Rock▼LSL. Negron · E. CloustonNegron · CloustonC75 69 72►@trip 858-1Fair 8-110%► Steady75 69 72@trip 85C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 69 72

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 7-for-45 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Edward Clouston 36% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Mykonos 2-1, R2: Undalay 15-1, R5: R Candy 20-1, R7: Gone Boy 7-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Vroysky 10-1, R8: Uncle Truly 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

New trainer: Nestor R Rivera had it last time, Edward Clouston now. Drops from $5,000 claiming to unknown.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 3 (4F in :49.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD Luis Negron from post 1 here: 31 wins, 80 top-3 in 140 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n3x	3rd/6 -4½L	75	4.5-1	b L	Mild rally held others
8/4	TDN	1m D	OC 8k v	10th/10 -8L	69	20-1	b L	Through after half
7/15	MNR	1m D	OC 12k	3rd/6 -7½L	72	0.8-1	b L	Weakened; even finish

2My Two Aunt JoansL. Tapara · A. RobillardTapara · RobillardB77 64 74▲+7@trip 817-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +777 64 74@trip 81B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 64 74

Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Alysha Robillard 24% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Yes I Am Free 3-1, R3: Marmara 8-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1, R8: Team Leyendecker 7-1 · Trainer R8: Team Leyendecker 7-1

WON LAST7/9 board here

Won last out in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 174d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Luis Tapara from post 2 here: 8 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	1m T	Clm 4k n1l	Won/9 by ½	77	0.9-1	L	Crowded late up gamely
9/21	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	7th/10 -8½L	64	2.8-1	L	Played no factor
9/13	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/9 -8L	74	4.7-1	L	Rallied best others

3Self TaughtE. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleB67 67 88▼▼-12↕@trip 8610-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1267 67 88 ↕@trip 86B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–88 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 88

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Mr. Bones 15-1, R3: A Little Bit Crazy 15-1, R8: Bohemian Style 4-1 · Trainer R3: A Little Bit Crazy 15-1, R8: Bohemian Style 4-1

CLASS DROP4/6 board here

Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. Class relief: $5,000 claiming last time, unknown today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 191d back

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Elijah Greenidge from post 3 here: 5 wins, 13 top-3 in 19 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	MNR	6f D	Clm 5k	4th/7 -14L	67	10-1	b L	Played no factor
9/29	MNR	1m D	Clm 10k	6th/7 -13L	67	6.2-1	b L	Gave early retreat
8/17	MNR	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k c	Won/5	88	1.4-1	b L	Patient; drew clear;

4He's a Shooter▲D. Parker · J. RobillardParker · RobillardC38 75 83▼▼-41↕@trip 8315-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -4138 75 83 ↕@trip 83C▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -41 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 38 75 83

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Julie Robillard 24% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Super Smooth 3-1, R5: Estrella Silver 10-1, R6: Buxtehude 7-1, R7: Dance Code 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Silver Candice 5-1, this race: Gametime Gladiator 4-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1

7/9 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 75 to 38. Last out was 6th, 29 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at MNR.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 25 (4F in :48.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD D L Parker from post 4 here: 6 wins, 20 top-3 in 37 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	6th/6 -29L	38	8.0-1	b L	Stalked 1/2 folded up
9/15	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	3rd/5 -4L	75	1.8-1	b L	Overpowered fought on
8/17	MNR	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k	3rd/5 -1L	83	5.0-1	b L	Hard used; ceded

5Roundball RockC. Oliveros · O. RomeroOliveros · RomeroB65 81 81▼▼-17@trip 835-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -1765 81 81@trip 83B2
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 81 81
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Oscar Romero 26% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Dremscomtrubcseofu 8-1, R2: Quistmer 7-1, R2: Shear Magic 2-1, R5: Holly Roller 5-1 +1 more
3/4 board here
A big drop, $7,500 claiming to unknown, and worth asking why. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 245d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 5 here: 17 wins, 67 top-3 in 151 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/20 MNR 1m D Clm 7k 9th/9 -13L 65 9.7-1 L Off slow; never in it
10/6 MNR 1m D Clm 5k n3x Won/6 81 0.8-1 L Set pace; held driving
9/27 MNR 1m D Clm 5k 2nd/6 81 1.5-1 L Dug in 4wi; no match

6Patriarchal★J. Skerrett · C. VecchioSkerrett · VecchioA94 84 81▲▲+10@trip 942-1Fair 3-126%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best94 84 81@trip 94A★ Best at the trip 941

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 94 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 84 81

★ Best at the trip 94

Jockey Jefferson Skerrett 14% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Caryn Vecchio 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Cugine 20-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 94 against 88 for the next best. 7 wins from 17 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 427d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	TDN	1m D	OC 8k	Won/6	94	4.2-1	b L	Inside move;clr;lasted
9/29	MNR	1m D	Clm 10k	2nd/7 -5½L	84	1.8-1	b L	Finished well inside
9/14	TDN	1m D	Clm 5k	Won/7 by 3¾	81	0.7-1	b L	Late burst4w; clear

7LoonyJ. Simpson · J. SerranoSimpson · SerranoC37 49 56▼▼-24↕@trip 7920-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -2437 49 56 ↕@trip 79C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -24 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 37 49 56

Jockey Jason Simpson 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Johanson Serrano 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R5: Red Delicious 15-1

Figures have slipped: 56, 49, 37 over its last three. Worked 3F in :38.40 on Dec 28, 3rd of 6 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Dec 11 (3F in :38.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jason Simpson from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 15 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 3k	6th/6 -18L	37	18-1	b L	Off slow veer break
10/6	MNR	1m T	Clm 4k n1l	9th/9 -11L	49	9.9-1	b L	Gave way on far turn
9/13	MNR	6f D	Clm 7k	5th/5 -10L	56	18-1	L	Faded on the turn

8Enjoy BaseballK. Gonzalez · N. RamunnoGonzalez · RamunnoC79 67 73▲▲+11@trip 7912-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best79 67 73@trip 79C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 67 73

Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-63 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Nancy J Ramunno 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Button Box 2-1, R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1, R6: Kittyup 10-1 +3 more

WON LAST

Winner of a 10-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR last time. 2nd of 21 at 3F on Apr 15, in :35.60.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 117d back

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 8 here: 13 wins, 54 top-3 in 132 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/10 by 4	79	25-1	b L	Rallied up late btwn
10/6	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/5 -9L	67	3.7-1	b L	Weakened mid track
9/22	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/9 -1¼L	73	22-1	b L	Chased; bid gamely;

9Curlins InchargeR. Barrios · J. SilvaBarrios · SilvaC67 70 75▼-7@trip 7515-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -767 70 75@trip 75C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 70 75

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career ★ 11-for-42 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Kool Kathmandu 20-1, R3: Later Days 20-1, R5: Red Delicious 15-1 · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, this race: Big Spin 5-1, R6: Opposite The Crowd 5-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP3/5 board here

0 for 9 at today's distance. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 163d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 9 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 69 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k n4x	7th/8 -6L	67	6.5-1	b L	Played no factor
8/31	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k b	2nd/6 -6¼L	70	5.0-1	b L	Rallied up for place
8/16	MNR	1m D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/7 -6L	75	3.9-1	b L	Gained held spot ins

10Gametime GladiatorL. Batista · J. RobillardBatista · RobillardA79 76 78▲+3≡@trip 794-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +379 76 78 ≡@trip 79A3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 73–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 76 78

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Julie Robillard 24% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Silver Candice 5-1, R7: Dean Delivers 5-1, R8: Orb Of The Boro 15-1 · Trainer R3: Silver Candice 5-1, this race: He's A Shooter 15-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Changes barns, from Michael V Simone to Julie Robillard. Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $3,200 claiming race at MNR.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 121d back

RECORD Luis Alberto Batista from post 10 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 3k c	Won/6	79	0.5-1	b L	Abreast cleared late
10/1	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	7th/9 -5¼L	76	3.9-1	b L	Asked 7wd; no rally
9/18	DEL	1m D	Clm 5k b	Won/10 by 2½	78	3.0-1	b L	Gaining; up in time

11CentsofwanderY. Yaranga · J. FletcherYaranga · FletcherC72 68 76►≡@trip 777-1Fair 15-16%► Steady72 68 76 ≡@trip 77C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 68 76

Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 3-for-35 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jeff Fletcher 26% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R2: Mat Matters 5-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R5: Kim's Money 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Yes I Am Free 3-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1

10/15 board here

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Finished 3rd in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at MNR, beaten 4 lengths.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 189d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 10 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	1m T	Clm 4k n1l	3rd/9 -4L	72	7.4-1	b L	Mild rally outbid rest
9/21	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n1l	4th/10 -7L	68	16-1	b L	Passed a few lane
8/26	MNR	1m D	ROC 20-40	Won/6 by 3	76	4.8-1	b L	Extended up late

12Into ItB. Tapara · M. SimoneTapara · SimoneC55 73 46▼-7↕@trip 848-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -755 73 46 ↕@trip 84C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–73 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 73 46

Jockey Brandon Tapara 32% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Michael V Simone 32% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Bouncer 10-1, R8: Lomachenko 2-1

Michael V Simone takes over the training from Kelly J Breen. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 130d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	DEL	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k bc	9th/10 -5¼L	55	6.3-1	b L	Duel ins-2p;yield far
10/3	MED	1m T	Clm 6k	2nd/5	73	4.6-1	b L	Dueled inside; nod 2d
9/13	MTH	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k	8th/8 -15L	46	7.4-1	b L	Stumbled badly start

13Big SpinJ. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaA75 73 73▲+3≡@trip 865-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +375 73 73 ≡@trip 86A

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 69–75 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 73 73

Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 8-for-45 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Chester Good 10-1, R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R6: Diamond Dancer 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Fayathaan 8-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, this race: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R6: Opposite The Crowd 5-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP6/10 board here

Was 6th of 6 at the first call last time. A step up in company: $3,200 claiming before, unknown today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 178d back

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	MNR	1m D	Clm 3k	2nd/6 -5½L	75	4.7-1	b L	Belatedly; saved 2nd
9/27	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	4th/6 -12L	73	5.6-1	b L	Hopped hit gate start
9/15	MNR	1m D	Clm 5k	4th/7 -15L	73	7.6-1	b L	Played no factor

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

13 runners

Purse

$11,000

Post

8:15 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 26%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.44

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Patriarchal (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 94 · 84 · 81. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Roundball Rock at 5-1. Use #10 Gametime Gladiator in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 PATRIARCHAL (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 PATRIARCHAL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 19.8%).
#10 GAMETIME GLADIATOR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.8% to their 11.9%).
#5 ROUNDBALL ROCK — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 10.9%, the board 9.9%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 JOHN'S ROCK (8-1) — our fair 7.8% is above the morning line's 6.6%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (33%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 He's A Shooter; pressure from #12 Into It, #8 Enjoy Baseball; the shape helps #2 My Two Aunt Joans, #5 Roundball Rock, #7 Loony; and works against #4 He's A Shooter, #12 Into It.

Lead

4He's A Shooter9312Into It86

Press

8Enjoy Baseball8410Gametime Gladiator822My Two Aunt Joans817Loony735Roundball Rock68

Stalk

11Centsofwander74

6Patriarchal809Curlins Incharge741John's Rock703Self Taught6713Big Spin67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

He's A Shooter

Into It

Enjoy Baseball

Gametime Gladiator

My Two Aunt Joans

Centsofwander

Loony

Roundball Rock

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Big Spin

John's Rock

Curlins Incharge

Self Taught

Patriarchal

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20

BOX $2 PICK 5 (RACES 4-8) $.50 WHEEL

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.