Pick sheet

Race 27:25 PM Clm 7500

5F · Turf · 11 entered. Our model's top pick, Button Box, is 27% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Button Box ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey K. Gonzalez · Trainer C. Cain · KEE 14: 8-3-0 · Dist 9: 6-1-0 · best fig at 5f turf 80 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	7f T	Clm 7k b	8th/8 -2L	66	7.3-1	b L	Rushed off used up;
8/19	PID	5f D	OC 10k	5th/6 by hd	70	9.6-1	b L	Fast pace; gave way;
6/2	MNR	5f T	OC 12k	Won/7	78	1.3-1	b L	Set pace; driving;

Case: Last out 8th/8 -2L in the Clm7500b at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 66-70-78. Best at today's distance 80. 6-for-9 at the distance. 8-for-14 at Mountaineer Park. C. Cain / K. Gonzalez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #11 Shear Magic ML 2-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey C. Oliveros · Trainer B. Kelly · Dist 7: 3-0-2 · best fig at 5f turf 82 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	9th/12 -8½L	65	29-1	b L	Ins;angled 3w;empty
8/29	DEL	-5f T	Alw n1x	4th/8 by hd	69	8.2-1	b L	Dueled; yielded late
6/19	PEN	5f T	OC 16k	Won/7	75	2.7-1	b L	Duel;bid2w;clear;held

Case: Last out 9th/12 -8½L in the ROC 1-65 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 65-69-75. Best at today's distance 82. 3-for-7 at the distance. B. Kelly / C. Oliveros.

Knock: Never raced at Mountaineer Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #9 Yes I Am Free ML 3-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 ★ Best at 5f turf: 92 Last out 6th/6 -2¾L in the OC10000 at PID. Last Brisnet figures 68-80-63. Best at today's distance 92. 10-for-37 at the distance. J. Fletcher / L. Tapara. Knock: Off 75 days. Never raced at Mountaineer Park.

Jockey L. Tapara · Trainer J. Fletcher · Dist 37: 10-6-5 · best fig at 5f turf 92 · 75 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/19	PID	5f D	OC 10k	6th/6 -2¾L	68	5.3-1	L	Squeezed start;object
6/28	MNR	5f D	Alw b	5th/8	80	5.2-1	L	Pressed led faltered;
5/10	MNR	5f D	Alw nc	5th/6 -11L	63	8.7-1	L	Never involved

Longshot #5 Lord Ante ML 12-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 55–82 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey E. Barbaran · Trainer S. Meyers · KEE 4: 3-0-1 · Dist 4: 3-0-1 · best fig at 5f turf 82 · 62 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/1	MNR	5f T	Clm 7k b	3rd/8 -1L	74	0.6-1	b L	Pressed pace; short
7/27	MNR	1m D	Clm 7k	3rd/4 -4L	55	1.4-1	b L	Weakened
9/29	MNR	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k c	7th/7 -4½L	59	3.8-1	b L	Gave way

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm7500b at MNR. Last Brisnet figures 74-55-59. Best at today's distance 82. 3-for-4 at the distance. 3-for-4 at Mountaineer Park. S. Meyers / E. Barbaran.

Knock: Off 62 days.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #7, #9 · B #2, #10, #11 · C #1, #3, #5, #6, #8

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #2 Lone speed on early pace · #3 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Last fig 88 at/above par 81 · #5 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #7 Last fig 86 at/above par 81 · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R2 Mountaineer Park · Claiming $7,500

7:25 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $13,500 · 11 runners7:25 PM · 5f Turf · 11 runners

Upcoming $14K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Undalay▼L. Negron · J. BernardiniNegron · BernardiniC72 80 76▼▼-915-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -972 80 76C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 72 80 76
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Luis Negron 33% career 4-for-22 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Jay P Bernardini 34% career ★ 7-for-25 on turf this meet (28%), #2 of 10 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Mykonos 2-1, R4: John's Rock 8-1, R5: R Candy 20-1, R7: Gone Boy 7-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: R Candy 20-1, R7: Bouncer 10-1, R8: Lomachenko 2-1
CLASS DROP4/7 board here
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. An 86 in its last five clears the 81 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 204d ago
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Luis Negron from post 1 here: 31 wins, 80 top-3 in 140 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 6f D OC 10k 5th/9 -1L 72 3.1-1 b L Tired
9/14 MNR 6f D OC 12k 3rd/7 -1L 80 5.3-1 b L Dueled; hung a bit
8/24 MNR 6f D OC 10k 4th/6 -4L 76 5.0-1 b L Pressed pace; short
2Button Box▲K. Gonzalez · C. CainGonzalez · CainB66 70 78►@trip 802-1Fair 3-127%► Steady66 70 78@trip 80B▲ Lone speed on early pace1
Card model 27% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 70 78
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Kevin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 5-for-23 on turf this meet (22%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Crystal Cain
Also today · Jockey R3: Golden Charm 10-1, R4: Enjoy Baseball 12-1, R5: Friendly Lucy 15-1, R6: Kittyup 10-1 +3 more
6/11 board here
Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 7 furlongs. Figures have slipped: 78, 70, 66 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 79d ago
RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here
RECORD Kevin Gonzalez from post 2 here: 15 wins, 72 top-3 in 200 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 MNR 7f T Clm 7k b 8th/8 -2L 66 7.3-1 b L Rushed off used up;
8/19 PID 5f D OC 10k 5th/6 by hd 70 9.6-1 b L Fast pace; gave way;
6/2 MNR 5f T OC 12k Won/7 78 1.3-1 b L Set pace; driving;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	5th/9 -1L	72	3.1-1	b L	Tired
9/14	MNR	6f D	OC 12k	3rd/7 -1L	80	5.3-1	b L	Dueled; hung a bit
8/24	MNR	6f D	OC 10k	4th/6 -4L	76	5.0-1	b L	Pressed pace; short

3Vroysky▼R. Dumont · E. CloustonDumont · CloustonC72 71 47▲▲+11↕@trip 7410-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1172 71 47 ↕@trip 74C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–72 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 71 47

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Reynaldo Dumont 14% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Edward Clouston 36% career 3-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Special Note 20-1, R5: Bowling Blue 8-1, R8: Priority Lane 12-1 · Trainer R4: John's Rock 8-1, R8: Uncle Truly 8-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK9/15 board here

Moves up from $4,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 178d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 9 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	MNR	4½f D	Clm 4k n2x	3rd/7 -3L	72	7.8-1	b L	Pressed battled for 2d
9/1	MNR	5f T	Clm 7k b	6th/8 -5L	71	24-1	b L	Pressed chased short
7/20	MNR	5f D	Clm 7k	5th/5 -11L	47	3.1-1	b L	Always outrun

4Mat Matters▲Y. Yaranga · G. ShaferYaranga · ShaferA88 80 80▲▲+105-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best88 80 80A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 81
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 88 80 80
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 81
Jockey Y Yaranga 26% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Gabe Shafer 14% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Springs 6-1, R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1, R5: Kim's Money 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Marmara 8-1, R6: Maci's World 2-1, R8: Grey Streak 15-1
60D LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/3 board here
Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR at 2-1. 110 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 31 (4F in :47.00), 1 work in 30d
RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)
RECORD Y Yaranga from post 4 here: 16 wins, 63 top-3 in 146 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/15 MNR 5f D Clm 7k b Won/7 88 2.0-1 L Shook clear dug in
6/22 MNR 5½f D Clm 4k n2x Won/9 80 2.2-1 b L Easily
12/7 MNR 5½f D Alw s 3rd/5 -2L 80 3.8-1 b L Hooked turn weakened;
5Lord Ante▼LSE. Barbaran · S. MeyersBarbaran · MeyersC74 55 59▲▲+9↕@trip 8212-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +974 55 59 ↕@trip 82C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 55 59
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Shane Meyers 33% career 2-for-10 on turf this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Alwaysabiggerbear 15-1
60D LAYOFF5/10 board here
Has won 3 of 4 going today's distance. Beaten 1 length for 3rd in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Erik Barbaran from post 5 here: 10 wins, 44 top-3 in 85 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/1 MNR 5f T Clm 7k b 3rd/8 -1L 74 0.6-1 b L Pressed pace; short
7/27 MNR 1m D Clm 7k 3rd/4 -4L 55 1.4-1 b L Weakened
9/29 MNR 1 1/16 D Clm 4k c 7th/7 -4½L 59 3.8-1 b L Gave way
6Mr. BonesE. Greenidge · J. HayGreenidge · HayC73 71 60▲▲+8@trip 7115-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +873 71 60@trip 71C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 71 60
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Joshua R Hay 14% career
Also today · Jockey R3: A Little Bit Crazy 15-1, R4: Self Taught 10-1, R8: Bohemian Style 4-1
WON LAST5/9 board here
New trainer: Randy Bayley had it last time, Joshua R Hay now. A step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $7,500 claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 179d back)
RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here
RECORD Elijah Greenidge from post 6 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 28 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 MNR 5f D Clm 4k n1x Won/9 73 0.9-1 b L Driving
9/21 MNR 2f D Clm 5k 4th/8 -8L 71 15-1 b L Had belated gain
7/27 PID 5½f D Clm 5k b 6th/8 -10L 60 24-1 b L Step slow;bore out
7Quistmer▲▼C. Oliveros · J. AguirreOliveros · AguirreA86 79 81▲+6≡7-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +6 · career best86 79 81 ≡A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 81▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 79–86 · Last 3 figs 86 79 81
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 81▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Juan R Aguirre 22% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Dremscomtrubcseofu 8-1, this race: Shear Magic 2-1, R4: Roundball Rock 5-1, R5: Holly Roller 5-1 +1 more
WON LAST5/6 board here
Has run 86 against a 81 par for the class. Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at MNR.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 160d back)
RECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 7 here: 20 wins, 52 top-3 in 122 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 MNR 5½f D Alw s Won/6 86 3.4-1 L Angled out top lane
9/22 MNR 6f D ROC 15-30c Won/5 79 0.8-1 L Set pace; had more
9/8 MNR 6f D Clm 4k n2xc Won/7 81 1.2-1 L Driving

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/15	MNR	5f D	Clm 7k b	Won/7	88	2.0-1	L	Shook clear dug in
6/22	MNR	5½f D	Clm 4k n2x	Won/9	80	2.2-1	b L	Easily
12/7	MNR	5½f D	Alw s	3rd/5 -2L	80	3.8-1	b L	Hooked turn weakened;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	MNR	5f D	Clm 4k n1x	Won/9	73	0.9-1	b L	Driving
9/21	MNR	2f D	Clm 5k	4th/8 -8L	71	15-1	b L	Had belated gain
7/27	PID	5½f D	Clm 5k b	6th/8 -10L	60	24-1	b L	Step slow;bore out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	MNR	5½f D	Alw s	Won/6	86	3.4-1	L	Angled out top lane
9/22	MNR	6f D	ROC 15-30c	Won/5	79	0.8-1	L	Set pace; had more
9/8	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2xc	Won/7	81	1.2-1	L	Driving

8Kool Kathmandu▼R. Barrios · C. LogstonBarrios · LogstonC39 68 80▼▼-35↕@trip 6920-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -3539 68 80 ↕@trip 69C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -35 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–80 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 39 68 80

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Ricardo Barrios 29% career 3-for-23 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Christopher Logston 16% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Later Days 20-1, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R5: Red Delicious 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK11/16 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 68 to 39. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 189d back)

RECORD 5 wins, 11 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Ricardo Barrios from post 8 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 116 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	MNR	5½f D	RHP 45-70	8th/8 -9L	39	21-1	b L	Pressed pace; wilted
9/1	MNR	4½f D	Clm 4k c	3rd/6 by nk	68	1.3-1	b L	Dueled; weakened;
8/16	MNR	5f D	Alw s	2nd/5 by hd	80	1.4-1	b L	Hooked btw no match

9Yes I Am Free★L. Tapara · J. FletcherTapara · FletcherA68 80 63▼-6@trip 923-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -668 80 63@trip 92A★ Best at the trip 923
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 80 63
★ Best at the trip 92
Jockey Luis Tapara 32% career 3-for-17 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Jeff Fletcher 26% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Marmara 8-1, R4: My Two Aunt Joans 7-1, R5: Burn It All 7-1, R8: Team Leyendecker 7-1 · Trainer R3: Girl Bye 3-1, R4: Centsofwander 7-1
60D LAYOFF
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Was 6th of 6 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Squeezed start; object. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 80d back)
RECORD Luis Tapara from post 9 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 23 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/19 PID 5f D OC 10k 6th/6 -2¾L 68 5.3-1 L Squeezed start;object
6/28 MNR 5f D Alw b 5th/8 80 5.2-1 L Pressed led faltered;
5/10 MNR 5f D Alw nc 5th/6 -11L 63 8.7-1 L Never involved

10FayathaanJ. Leon · J. SilvaLeon · SilvaB75 71 56▲▲+14↕@trip 838-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1475 71 56 ↕@trip 83B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–75 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 71 56

Jockey Jose A Leon 29% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Juan Pablo Silva 34% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Chester Good 10-1, R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Big Spin 5-1, R6: Diamond Dancer 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Flight Control 7-5, R4: Curlins Incharge 15-1, R4: Big Spin 5-1, R6: Opposite The Crowd 5-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 5 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Oct 11 (:35.80), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.80 on Oct 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	MNR	7f T	OC 7k	8th/9 -1L	75	19-1	L	Extended bid gave way;
9/8	MNR	7f T	Clm 25k b	4th/9 -5L	71	19-1	L	Needed more late
10/16	DEL	5½f D	Clm 6k b	12th/13 -2½L	56	30-1	L	Pinch start;cut corner

11Shear MagicC. Oliveros · B. KellyOliveros · KellyB65 69 75►@trip 822-1Fair 6-114%► Steady65 69 75@trip 82B2

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 69 75

Jockey Charle Oliveros 32% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Blake Kelly 30% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Dremscomtrubcseofu 8-1, this race: Quistmer 7-1, R4: Roundball Rock 5-1, R5: Holly Roller 5-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $13,500 today after a $36,420 race last time. 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 20; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Charle Oliveros from post 11 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 26 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	9th/12 -8½L	65	29-1	b L	Ins;angled 3w;empty
8/29	DEL	-5f T	Alw n1x	4th/8 by hd	69	8.2-1	b L	Dueled; yielded late
6/19	PEN	5f T	OC 16k	Won/7	75	2.7-1	b L	Duel;bid2w;clear;held

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

MOUNTAINEER PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

11 runners

Purse

$13,500

Post

7:25 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 27%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.22

The shape is the story here: 7 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Button Box (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 66 · 70 · 78. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #11 Shear Magic at 2-1. Use #9 Yes I Am Free in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 BUTTON BOX (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 BUTTON BOX — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 20.1%).
#11 SHEAR MAGIC — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 20.1%).
#9 YES I AM FREE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 15.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 LORD ANTE (12-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.6%; supported by: top barn (33%) + jockey (36%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Button Box; pressure from #4 Mat Matters, #5 Lord Ante; and works against #2 Button Box, #3 Vroysky, #4 Mat Matters.

Lead

2Button Box1084Mat Matters1015Lord Ante958Kool Kathmandu953Vroysky946Mr. Bones937Quistmer91

Press

1Undalay989Yes I Am Free8811Shear Magic8610Fayathaan83

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Button Box

108

Mat Matters

101

Undalay

Lord Ante

Kool Kathmandu

Vroysky

Mr. Bones

Quistmer

Yes I Am Free

Shear Magic

Fayathaan

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Undalay

Mat Matters

Mr. Bones

Kool Kathmandu

Fayathaan

Vroysky

Quistmer

Shear Magic

Yes I Am Free

Button Box

Lord Ante

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

2ND HALF DAILY DOUBLE $2 EXACTA $1 BOX $1 TRIFECTA $.50 BOX $1 SUPERFECTA $.20

BOX $2 PICK 3 (RACES 2-4) $1 WHEEL

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.