MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Our Last Song (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 61 · 70 · 53. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Electric Melody at 5-2. Use #2 Lady Jasper in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. Class relief: optional claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.
Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance. Was 4th of 4 at the first call last time.
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN at 1.8-1. Tops the field on speed figures, a 78 against 74 for the next best.
Freshened 165 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.
Drops from $16,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Finished 2nd in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN, beaten 2½ lengths.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 LADY JASPER (6-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #2 LADY JASPER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (33.7% to their 36.2%).
- #6 ELECTRIC MELODY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.8% to their 22.7%).
- #3 OUR LAST SONG — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.6%, they've got 15.9%.
Model vs the morning line
- #3 OUR LAST SONG — we make it 18.6%, the morning line works out to 15.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Kerri's Miracle; pressure from #5 Mobil Chic, #2 Lady Jasper; the shape helps #1 Oh Glorious Day, #2 Lady Jasper, #3 Our Last Song; and works against #4 Kerri's Miracle, #5 Mobil Chic.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 1-5) 50% CARRYOVER
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta