MAHONING VALLEY · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #8 Paint The Town (a closer, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 69 · 72 · 65. Backup is #4 Hite at 5-1. Use #2 That's The Way in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Picks up 5 pounds from its last start. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
Was running in $16,000 claiming; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 81 next best. Beaten 13 lengths for 4th in a 7-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN.
Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start. The Jul 2 work, 3F in :37.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 64 to 55. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 78 par.
Has won 9 of 26 going today's distance. Led at the first call last time.
Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming.
Won last out in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN. Worked 5F in 1:02.60 on Jun 11, 3rd of 6 at the distance.
Raises its level, $8,000 claiming last time and $10,000 claiming now. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
7th last time, 34 lengths back, in a field of 7. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 THAT'S THE WAY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #2 THAT'S THE WAY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.0%).
- #1 NEED TO KNOW BASIS — our #9 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 19.3%).
- #4 HITE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 12.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 PAINT THE TOWN (12-1) — our fair 6.9% is above the morning line's 5.9%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Indian Fever; pressure from #1 Need To Know Basis, #9 Sammy's Smile; the shape helps #1 Need To Know Basis, #3 A Prayer For Kids, #6 Red Head Kid; and works against #5 Indian Fever.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8) 50% CARRYOVER
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta