Pick sheet

Race 73:22 PM Md Sp Wt

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Easy Pick, is 32% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Easy Pick ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼▼ Big drop -9

Jockey M. Gonzalez · Trainer J. Guerrero · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 79 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	PRX	6½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/8 -3L	65	4.4-1	L	Well placed; weakened
8/20	CNL	6½f D	MCL 30kc	3rd/8 -3L	80	4.0-1	L	Angled; gaining 4wd
7/31	CNL	6f T	MSW	5th/8 -4L	72	7.8-1	L	Steady1/2p ins;swng4w

Case: Last out 3rd in the sMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 65-80-72. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Parx Racing. J. Guerrero / M. Gonzalez.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #1 Associated ML 7-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -15 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 81

Jockey B. Torres · Trainer E. Padilla-Preciado · KEE 4: 0-1-1 · Dist 4: 0-1-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 81 · 26 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	PRX	6½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -6½L	58	1.0-1	b L	Early trouble; wide
9/2	PRX	6f D	MCL 25kc	2nd/7	74	1.3-1	b L	Heated duel; nailed
6/21	PRX	6f D	MSW	4th/8 -4½L	70	3.3-1	b L	Vied btwn; flattened

Case: Last out 5th/8 -6½L in the sMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 58-74-70. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Parx Racing. E. Padilla-Preciado / B. Torres.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Use #3 Warrior's Mission ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80 Last out 2nd in the sMdSpWt at PID. Last Brisnet figures 63-68-69. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-10 at the distance. S. Crowell / R. Silvera. Knock: Never raced at Parx Racing. 0-for-10 at the distance.

Jockey R. Silvera · Trainer S. Crowell · Dist 10: 0-5-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 69 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PID	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/5 -3½L	63	1.3-1	L	Fail to gain;kept-on
9/14	PID	6½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/4 -3L	68	2.9-1	L	Rally ins;2d best
8/26	PID	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/6 -2½L	69	25-1	L	Str rally;up for place

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #6 · B #2, #4, #5

Angles: #2 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #3 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #4 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #5 Best fig 17 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #5 Lone speed on early pace

R7 Parx Racing · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

3:22 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $60,000 · 6 runners3:22 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $60K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Associated★B. Torres · E. Padilla-PreciadoTorres · Padilla-PreciadoA58 74 70▼▼-15@trip 817-2Fair 7-223%▼▼ Big drop -1558 74 70@trip 81A★ Best at the trip 812

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 74 70

★ Best at the trip 81

Jockey Bryan L Torres 32% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado 36% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Fast Motion 6-1 · Trainer R4: Extrasexymcsteemee 7-2, R6: You Don't Grab Me 6-1

2/4 board here

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 5th, 6½ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at PRX.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Bryan L Torres from post 1 here: 8 wins, 23 top-3 in 52 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	PRX	6½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -6½L	58	1.0-1	b L	Early trouble; wide
9/2	PRX	6f D	MCL 25kc	2nd/7	74	1.3-1	b L	Heated duel; nailed
6/21	PRX	6f D	MSW	4th/8 -4½L	70	3.3-1	b L	Vied btwn; flattened

2Cajun Reward▼D. Haddock · D. CurryHaddock · CurryB42 70@trip 425-1Fair 8-111%—42 70@trip 42B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 80
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 42 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 42 70
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 80
Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 8-for-75 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Dee Curry 23% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Lucky Lu Lu 3-1, R3: Bright Kohana 3-1, R5: Alyvia's Lil Girl 12-1
60D LAYOFFJky 46/243 from post 2
Best recent figure is 70, well under the 80 par for this level. 5th last time, 19 lengths back, in a field of 6.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 11d back
RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 2 here: 46 wins, 119 top-3 in 243 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/26 PRX 6f D MSW 5th/6 -19L 42 3.1-1 b L Drifted wide; stopped
7/18 PRX 6½f D sMdSpWt 3rd/7 70 2.0-1 b L Pressured lead; gamely

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/26	PRX	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -19L	42	3.1-1	b L	Drifted wide; stopped
7/18	PRX	6½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7	70	2.0-1	b L	Pressured lead; gamely

3Warrior's Mission▼R. Silvera · S. CrowellSilvera · CrowellA63 68 69►@trip 693-1Fair 5-116%► Steady63 68 69@trip 69A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 803

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 69 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 68 69

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-54 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Susan L Crowell 17% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Law Of Lory 5-2, R4: Extrasexymcsteemee 7-2, R8: Antonacci Girl 8-5, R9: Perugia 2-1

A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. New trainer: Jeff W Zook had it last time, Susan L Crowell now.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 168d back)

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 3 here: 27 wins, 68 top-3 in 154 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PID	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/5 -3½L	63	1.3-1	L	Fail to gain;kept-on
9/14	PID	6½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/4 -3L	68	2.9-1	L	Rally ins;2d best
8/26	PID	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/6 -2½L	69	25-1	L	Str rally;up for place

4Aussie's Heir▼A. Adorno · J. KirbyAdorno · KirbyB63 68 62►≡@trip 686-1Fair 12-18%► Steady63 68 62 ≡@trip 68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 80

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–68 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 68 62

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-55 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer John T Kirby 31% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Filled With Desire 9-2, R3: Tara's Talent 7-2, R5: Natures Fury 4-1, R6: Flamenca 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Moves up from maiden claiming $25,000 to maiden special weight. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 11 (4F in :46.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Abner Adorno from post 4 here: 23 wins, 87 top-3 in 197 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/2	PRX	6f D	MCL 25k	6th/7 -10L	63	5.5-1	b L	Inside; no response
8/26	PRX	6f D	MCL 16k	2nd/7 -2L	68	2.4-1	b L	Bid turn; weakened
7/18	PRX	6½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/7 -1½L	62	3.1-1	b L	Soundly bumped stretch

5Honour Smarty▼▲F. Pennington · J. ServisPennington · ServisB17@trip 175-1Fair 8-110%—17@trip 17B▼ Best fig 17 is 5+ under today's par 80▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 17 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 17
▼ Best fig 17 is 5+ under today's par 80▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey F Pennington 34% career 4-for-39 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer J Tyler Servis 35% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Big Hinano 6-1, R5: Luv Queen E 5-2, R6: She Runs Hot 4-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Finished 5th in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at PRX, beaten 23 lengths. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 17 against a 80 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 11d back
RECORD F Pennington from post 5 here: 27 wins, 65 top-3 in 156 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/9 PRX 6f D sMdSpWt 5th/5 -23L 17 1.7-1 L Brief lead; stopped

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	PRX	6f D	sMdSpWt	5th/5 -23L	17	1.7-1	L	Brief lead; stopped

6Easy PickM. Gonzalez · J. GuerreroGonzalez · GuerreroA65 80 72▼▼-9@trip 795-2Fair 2-132%▼▼ Big drop -965 80 72@trip 79A1

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 80 72

Jockey Melvis Gonzalez 33% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer J Carlos Guerrero 31% career ★ 9-for-37 on dirt this meet (24%)

Changes barns, from Jose A Gallegos to J Carlos Guerrero. Maiden through 10 starts.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 10 days ago

RECORD Melvis Gonzalez from post 6 here: 4 wins, 27 top-3 in 73 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	PRX	6½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/8 -3L	65	4.4-1	L	Well placed; weakened
8/20	CNL	6½f D	MCL 30kc	3rd/8 -3L	80	4.0-1	L	Angled; gaining 4wd
7/31	CNL	6f T	MSW	5th/8 -4L	72	7.8-1	L	Steady1/2p ins;swng4w

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

3:22 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 32%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Easy Pick (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 65 · 80 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Associated at 7-2. Use #3 Warrior's Mission in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 EASY PICK (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 EASY PICK — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.3% to their 23.2%).
#3 WARRIOR'S MISSION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 20.3%).
#1 ASSOCIATED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.6% to their 18.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Cajun Reward; pressure from #4 Aussie's Heir, #6 Easy Pick; the shape helps #1 Associated, #3 Warrior's Mission, #6 Easy Pick; and works against #2 Cajun Reward, #4 Aussie's Heir, #5 Honour Smarty.

Lead

2Cajun Reward904Aussie's Heir84

Press

6Easy Pick871Associated84

Stalk

3Warrior's Mission80

none

No style yet

5Honour Smarty100

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cajun Reward

Easy Pick

Associated

Aussie's Heir

Warrior's Mission

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Associated

Easy Pick

Cajun Reward

Aussie's Heir

Honour Smarty

Warrior's Mission

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Bet types

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