Pick sheet

Race 94:16 PM OClm 10000

7F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Perugia, is 29% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Perugia ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▲ Up +3 ↕ Up and down 36–87

Jockey R. Silvera · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 5: 1-1-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-0 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 10k	2nd/6	73	3.2-1	L	Clear; widened; wknd
9/24	BEL	1m D	fsAlw105000n1x	9th/9 -28L	36	15-1	L	Chsd;4-5p turn;falter
8/29	DEL	5½f D	OC 10k	2nd/5 by hd	87	2.4-1	L	Dueled; just missed

Case: Last out 2nd in the fOC10000 at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 73-36-87. 0-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Parx Racing. J. Ness / R. Silvera.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Contender #4 Peridot Pendant ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -4 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey E. Flores · Trainer E. McClellan · KEE 3: 1-1-0 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	PEN	6f D	OC 40k b	3rd/4 -3L	72	4.4-1	b L	Pressed; gave way
9/30	DEL	5½f D	OC 10k	Won/6 by ½	77	1.1-1	b L	Stalked;wore dwn rival
9/9	PRX	6f D	OC 10k	2nd/6 -½L	83	0.5-1	b L	Forced pace; willingly

Case: Last out 3rd in the fOC40000b at PEN. Last Brisnet figures 72-77-83. 1-for-3 at Parx Racing. E. McClellan / E. Flores.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Use #6 Qualified Hire ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84 Last out won in the fClm7500n1y at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 79-66-73. 1-for-2 at Parx Racing. E. McClellan / I. Beato. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey I. Beato · Trainer E. McClellan · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n1y	Won/7 by 2½	79	10-1	L	Awk start; late bid
7/31	PEN	1m D	Clm 8k b	4th/5 -7½L	66	2.7-1	L	Inside;empty stretch
6/25	PEN	6f D	RHP 20-40	Won/6	73	5.9-1	L	Inside; prevailed

★ Distance horse: #1 Sheza Bernardini (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 7f dirt: 83 from 2 tries, record at the distance 2: 0-0-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #6 · B #1, #3, #5 · C #7, #8

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 72)

R9 Parx Racing · Optional Claiming $10,000

4:16 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $26,000 · 8 runners4:16 PM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $26K · Optional Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Sheza Bernardini (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 83 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Sheza Bernardini▼★S. Orellana · A. MartinezOrellana · MartinezB72 85 67►↕@trip 838-1Fair 15-17%► Steady72 85 67 ↕@trip 83B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 83

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–85 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 85 67

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 83

Jockey Sebastian Orellana 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Alexander Martinez 32% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Dosser 15-1, R2: Seven Belle 20-1, R5: Sushi 12-1, R8: Jess's Moment 8-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE7/14 board here

Drops from allowance to optional claiming. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; weakened. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 14 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	fsAlw105000n1x	5th/8 -6½L	72	34-1	b L	Bumped st; weakened
9/9	PRX	6f D	OC 10k	Won/6 by 3	85	14-1	b L	Trailed; circled;surge
7/22	PRX	7f D	Clm 7k n1yc	5th/7 -7½L	67	6.3-1	b L	Between; lacked bid

2PerugiaR. Silvera · J. NessSilvera · NessA73 36 87▲+3↕2-1Fair 5-229%▲ Up +373 36 87 ↕A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–87 · Last 3 figs 73 36 87

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-54 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 12-for-51 on dirt this meet (24%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Law Of Lory 5-2, R4: Extrasexymcsteemee 7-2, R7: Warrior's Mission 3-1, R8: Antonacci Girl 8-5 · Trainer R2: Law Of Lory 5-2, R8: Antonacci Girl 8-5

Back to 7 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. Finished 2nd last time in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PRX.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jan 8; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 2 here: 18 wins, 61 top-3 in 129 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 10k	2nd/6	73	3.2-1	L	Clear; widened; wknd
9/24	BEL	1m D	fsAlw105000n1x	9th/9 -28L	36	15-1	L	Chsd;4-5p turn;falter
8/29	DEL	5½f D	OC 10k	2nd/5 by hd	87	2.4-1	L	Dueled; just missed

3Sister EveJ. Vargas Jr. · E. PadillaVargas Jr. · PadillaB60 70 76▼▼-19↕@trip 796-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1960 70 76 ↕@trip 79B

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–91 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 70 76

Jockey Jorge A Jr Vargas 29% career ★ 10-for-48 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Esteban Padilla 32% career ★ 6-for-17 on dirt this meet (35%), #1 of 47

Also today · Jockey R4: Highway Patrol 2-1, R6: You Don't Grab Me 6-1

6/9 board here

New trainer: John T Kirby had it last time, Esteban Padilla now. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 91, with 87 next best.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d back

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	6½f D	Clm 16k c	7th/7 -7¼L	60	1.5-1	b L	Vied btwn; gave way
8/31	PRX	6½f D	fsAlw41820n1x	6th/7 -15L	70	9.2-1	b L	Caught stopping rival
8/18	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k n1x	3rd/10 -9½L	76	12-1	b L	Wide; late energy

4Peridot Pendant▲E. Flores · E. McClellanFlores · McClellanA72 77 83▼-47-2Fair 4-119%▼ Down -472 77 83A▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 72 77 83

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey E Flores 32% career · Trainer Erin C McClellan 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Qualified Hire 4-1

CLASS UP

Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 77 to 72. Was running in optional claiming; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 35 days ago

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	PEN	6f D	OC 40k b	3rd/4 -3L	72	4.4-1	b L	Pressed; gave way
9/30	DEL	5½f D	OC 10k	Won/6 by ½	77	1.1-1	b L	Stalked;wore dwn rival
9/9	PRX	6f D	OC 10k	2nd/6 -½L	83	0.5-1	b L	Forced pace; willingly

5Miss InterpatationJ. Ramos · M. SimoneRamos · SimoneB77 62 73▲▲+126-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1277 62 73B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Last 3 figs 77 62 73

Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Michael V Simone 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Johnny Bay Goode 2-1, R5: Little Gussie 12-1 · Trainer R3: Tara's Talent 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

2nd last time, a head back, in a field of 7. Carries 115 pounds, 6 less than last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Mar 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	DEL	1m D	Clm 10k b	2nd/7 by hd	77	2.9-1	L	3-4w; brief lead
10/9	PEN	1 1/16 D	RHP 40-55	6th/6 -9½L	62	5.1-1	L	Stmbl'd st;pace;faded
9/23	DEL	1m D	ROC	5th/5 -5L	73	4.1-1	L	Pace;headed;gave way

6Qualified Hire▼I. Beato · E. McClellanBeato · McClellanA79 66 73▲▲+124-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best79 66 73A▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 843

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 79 66 73

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 3-for-11 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Erin C McClellan 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Peridot Pendant 7-2

WON LAST

Winner of a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX last time. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 32d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n1y	Won/7 by 2½	79	10-1	L	Awk start; late bid
7/31	PEN	1m D	Clm 8k b	4th/5 -7½L	66	2.7-1	L	Inside;empty stretch
6/25	PEN	6f D	RHP 20-40	Won/6	73	5.9-1	L	Inside; prevailed

7Luminous SecretC. Hargrove · W. PottsHargrove · PottsC70 75 80▼▼-98-1Fair 15-17%▼▼ Big drop -970 75 80C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 70 75 80

Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Wayne Potts 30% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Diamond Dash 6-1 · Trainer R1: Johnny Bay Goode 2-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Kieron Magee to Wayne Potts. Figures have slipped: 80, 75, 70 over its last three.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on May 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	DEL	1m D	Clm 10k bc	4th/7 -7L	70	2.7-1	b L	Shift 3w early;fan 10w
9/23	DEL	1m D	ROC	4th/5 -6½L	75	8.4-1	b L	Stalked; drifted 1/4
9/3	DEL	1m D	Clm 10k bc	Won/6	80	3.2-1	b L	Under pressure; held

8Rowsie Express▼A. Wolfsont · T. IannottiWolfsont · IannottiC62 72 73▼▼-1015-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1062 72 73C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 72)

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 62 72 73

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 72)

Jockey Andrew Wolfsont 30% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Thomas Iv Iannotti 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

CLASS UP4/7 board here

Figures have slipped: 73, 72, 62 over its last three. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7 furlongs.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 54 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Andrew Wolfsont from post 8 here: 4 wins, 25 top-3 in 57 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k	7th/11 -13L	62	21-1	L	Shift in 1st turn;even
6/1	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 10k	3rd/6 -4½L	72	9.1-1	L	Inside; turn; faltered
5/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n2yc	Won/7 by ½	73	0.8-1	L	Led; faded; came again

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

4:16 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 29%

Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.53

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Perugia (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 73 · 36 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Peridot Pendant at 7-2. Use #6 Qualified Hire in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 PERUGIA (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 PERUGIA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.3% to their 25.1%).
#4 PERIDOT PENDANT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 16.8%).
#6 QUALIFIED HIRE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 15.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Peridot Pendant; pressure from #2 Perugia, #3 Sister Eve.

Lead

none

Press

4Peridot Pendant982Perugia943Sister Eve845Miss Interpatation827Luminous Secret748Rowsie Express65

Stalk

none

6Qualified Hire831Sheza Bernardini77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Peridot Pendant

Perugia

Sister Eve

Miss Interpatation

Luminous Secret

Rowsie Express

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Qualified Hire

Sheza Bernardini

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