Pick sheet

Race 42:01 PM OClm 16000

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Highway Patrol, is 28% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Highway Patrol ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 59–80

Jockey J. Vargas Jr. · Trainer R. Mosco · KEE 3: 2-0-1 · Dist 10: 1-2-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 80 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	PRX	6½f D	OC 25k	Won/7 by 1	79	2.8-1	b L	Rated; angled out; up
9/14	PRX	6f D	MSW	Won/5	80	4.7-1	b L	Angled out; bid clear
8/26	PRX	6f D	MSW	3rd/6 -9L	71	5.7-1	b L	Two path; faltered

Case: Last out won in the OC25000 at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 79-80-71. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-10 at the distance. 2-for-3 at Parx Racing. R. Mosco / J. Vargas Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Possum ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer G. Preciado · KEE 13: 2-4-2 · Dist 4: 1-2-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 81 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 20k b	2nd/10 -3½L	81	10-1	b L	Advanced 3-5w;up place
8/31	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n3l	2nd/6 -4L	74	1.1-1	b L	Angled out; up place
8/6	DEL	6f D	OC 16k	5th/7 -11L	70	6.7-1	b L	Slow start;by-faders

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm20000b at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 81-74-70. Best at today's distance 81. 1-for-4 at the distance. 2-for-13 at Parx Racing. G. Preciado / P. Lopez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Extrasexymcsteemee ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 6th/10 -10L in the Clm20000b at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 73-77-59. Best at today's distance 73. 0-for-4 at the distance. 2-for-18 at Parx Racing. E. Padilla-Preciado / R. Silvera. Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Jockey R. Silvera · Trainer E. Padilla-Preciado · KEE 18: 2-3-3 · Dist 4: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 73 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 20k b	6th/10 -10L	73	15-1	b L	Saved ground;late gain
8/31	PRX	1m D	Clm 12k n3lc	4th/6 -7½L	77	4.4-1	b L	Brief fade; came again
7/8	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	4th/4 -12L	59	10-1	b L	Trailed throughout

★ Distance horse: #1 Stinger Bee (9-2) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 91 from 7 tries, record at the distance 14: 2-2-2. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #6 · B #1, #3, #4

Angles: #3 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 87

R4 Parx Racing · Optional Claiming $16,000

2:01 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $26,000 · 6 runners2:01 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $26K · Optional Claiming $16,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Stinger Bee (9-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 91 from 7 tries. Not in our top three.

1Stinger Bee★F. Martinez · R. MoscoMartinez · MoscoB77 55 68▲▲+10↕@trip 919-2Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +1077 55 68 ↕@trip 91B★ Best at the trip 91

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–79 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 55 68

★ Best at the trip 91

Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 8-for-93 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Robert Mosco 31% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Ancient 5-1, R6: Sassy Miss 8-1, R8: Princess Kalamoh 10-1 · Trainer this race: Highway Patrol 2-1, R8: Princess Kalamoh 10-1

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. 2nd last time, 7 lengths back, in a field of 5.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 2)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Rail early; swung wide), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 59d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 1 here: 27 wins, 88 top-3 in 165 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k	2nd/5 -7L	77	28-1	L	Rail early; swung wide
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 20k b	10th/10 -14L	55	6.0-1	L	3-4w;swung 7w;faded
7/20	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k	7th/8 -5½L	68	4.4-1	L	Close wide; faltered

2Highway PatrolJ. Vargas Jr. · R. MoscoVargas Jr. · MoscoA79 80 71▲▲+9↕@trip 802-1Fair 5-228%▲▲ Big jump +979 80 71 ↕@trip 80A1
Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 80 71
Jockey Jorge A Jr Vargas 29% career ★ 10-for-48 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Robert Mosco 31% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R6: You Don't Grab Me 6-1, R9: Sister Eve 6-1 · Trainer this race: Stinger Bee 9-2, R8: Princess Kalamoh 10-1
WON LAST3/3 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 81 for the next best. Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 101 days ago
RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)
RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 PRX 6½f D OC 25k Won/7 by 1 79 2.8-1 b L Rated; angled out; up
9/14 PRX 6f D MSW Won/5 80 4.7-1 b L Angled out; bid clear
8/26 PRX 6f D MSW 3rd/6 -9L 71 5.7-1 b L Two path; faltered
3Depoli▼K. Rivera · J. BertoneRivera · BertoneB60 78 52▼▼-9@trip 9015-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -960 78 52@trip 90B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 78 52
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Kendry Rivera 34% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Joann Bertone 13% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Trainer R1: Big Dosser 15-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE3/6 board here
0 for 25 at today's distance. Last out was 8th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at PEN.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; no rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d back
RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD Kendry Rivera from post 3 here: 3 wins, 22 top-3 in 51 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 PEN 6f D OC 16k 8th/9 -10L 60 28-1 b L Bumped st; no rally
1/7 PRX 6½f D OC 16k DNF — 11-1 b L Fell 1/16; walked off
12/23 PRX 6f D OC 16k 7th/11 -5L 78 32-1 b L Inside; no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	PEN	6f D	OC 16k	8th/9 -10L	60	28-1	b L	Bumped st; no rally
1/7	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k	DNF	—	11-1	b L	Fell 1/16; walked off
12/23	PRX	6f D	OC 16k	7th/11 -5L	78	32-1	b L	Inside; no threat

4Accelerated Dating▼A. Castillo · R. AbramsCastillo · AbramsB67 70 71►≡@trip 714-1Fair 7-112%► Steady67 70 71 ≡@trip 71B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 87

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 70 71

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey A Castillo 30% career 5-for-49 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ronald Abrams 30% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Grande Felino 20-1, R3: Shudabeenacowgirl 12-1, R5: Uptown Art 6-1, R8: Tiz Purple 3-1 · Trainer R8: Tiz Purple 3-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Moves up from $10,000 claiming to optional claiming. New trainer: Susan L Crowell had it last time, Ronald Abrams now.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 16d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD A Castillo from post 4 here: 10 wins, 36 top-3 in 95 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k bc	3rd/11 -4L	67	11-1	b L	Outside; willingly
7/20	PRX	6½f D	OC 16k	6th/8 -8L	70	60-1	b L	Close btwn; gave way
6/29	PRX	6f D	Clm 12k bc	Won/7	71	3.2-1	b L	Long duel; edged away

5PossumP. Lopez · G. PreciadoLopez · PreciadoA81 74 70▲+6@trip 815-2Fair 3-126%▲ Up +681 74 70@trip 81A2

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 74 70

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 11-for-62 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Guadalupe Preciado 32% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) ★ hot

6/8 board here

Figures are climbing: 70, 74, 81 over its last three. Class relief: $20,000 claiming last time, optional claiming today.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Advanced 3-5w; up place. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 14; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 5 here: 22 wins, 70 top-3 in 118 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 20k b	2nd/10 -3½L	81	10-1	b L	Advanced 3-5w;up place
8/31	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n3l	2nd/6 -4L	74	1.1-1	b L	Angled out; up place
8/6	DEL	6f D	OC 16k	5th/7 -11L	70	6.7-1	b L	Slow start;by-faders

6ExtrasexymcsteemeeR. Silvera · E. Padilla-PreciadoSilvera · Padilla-PreciadoA73 77 59►@trip 737-2Fair 4-121%► Steady73 77 59@trip 73A3

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 77 59

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-54 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado 36% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Law Of Lory 5-2, R7: Warrior's Mission 3-1, R8: Antonacci Girl 8-5, R9: Perugia 2-1 · Trainer R6: You Don't Grab Me 6-1, R7: Associated 7-2

7/14 board here

Best recent figure is 77, well under the 87 par for this level. Was 10th of 10 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 6 here: 24 wins, 73 top-3 in 154 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRX	6f D	Clm 20k b	6th/10 -10L	73	15-1	b L	Saved ground;late gain
8/31	PRX	1m D	Clm 12k n3lc	4th/6 -7½L	77	4.4-1	b L	Brief fade; came again
7/8	PRX	1m D	OC 16k	4th/4 -12L	59	10-1	b L	Trailed throughout

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $16,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

2:01 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 28%

Claiming $16,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Highway Patrol (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 79 · 80 · 71. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Possum at 5-2. Use #6 Extrasexymcsteemee in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 HIGHWAY PATROL (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 HIGHWAY PATROL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.9% to their 25.9%).
#5 POSSUM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.8% to their 22.2%).
#6 EXTRASEXYMCSTEEMEE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Stinger Bee; pressure from #4 Accelerated Dating, #2 Highway Patrol; the shape helps #2 Highway Patrol, #4 Accelerated Dating, #6 Extrasexymcsteemee; and works against #1 Stinger Bee.

Lead

1Stinger Bee79

Press

4Accelerated Dating852Highway Patrol796Extrasexymcsteemee71

Stalk

none

3Depoli845Possum83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Accelerated Dating

Stinger Bee

Highway Patrol

Extrasexymcsteemee

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Possum

Depoli

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