Pick sheet

Race 62:55 PM Md 40000Late Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Northlondonforever, is 23% to win (morning line implies 21%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 Northlondonforever ML 7-2 Fair 7-2 Model #1

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer J. Servis · Debut

First start. By Maximus Mischief out of Lassie's Map (Liam's Map)

Trainer J. Servis: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts) · 2-year-olds: 13% wins, 41% in the money (212 starts)

Jockey M. Sanchez in sprints: 11 wins from 65 (17%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PRX	4f	:47.60	breezing	2/51
10/17	PRX	4f	:48.40	breezing	3/22	from gate
10/10	PRX	4f	:51.20	breezing	79/85
9/5	PRX	4f	:48.60	breezing	29/74
8/29	PRX	4f	:47.00	breezing	1/44	● bullet from gate

Case: First career start. J. Servis / M. Sanchez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 Flamenca ML 5-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey A. Adorno · Trainer J. Servis · 58 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/3	DEL	1m D	MSW	4th/5 -8½L	59	3.6-1	b	No stretch response
8/16	MTH	1m T	MSW	6th/7 -15L	49	11-1	b	Bumped; off slowly

Case: Last out 4th/5 -8½L in the fMdSpWt at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 59-49. J. Servis / A. Adorno.

Knock: Never raced at Parx Racing.

Use #1 You Don't Grab Me ML 6-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75 Last out 5th/8 -9L in the fMd40000 at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 55. 0-for-1 at Parx Racing. E. Padilla-Preciado / J. Vargas Jr.. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5½f).

Jockey J. Vargas Jr. · Trainer E. Padilla-Preciado · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	5½f D	MCL 40k	5th/8 -9L	55	7.1-1		Std early; closed gap

Longshot #2 Valley Forge P a ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #6

Jockey E. Ruiz · Trainer H. Padilla · Debut

First start. By Eastwood out of Ice Diamond (Uptowncharlybrown)

Trainer H. Padilla: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 36% in the money (39 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts)

Jockey E. Ruiz in sprints: 45 wins from 238 (19%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PRX	4f	:49.80	breezing	29/51
10/10	PRX	5f	1:02.00	breezing	10/22
9/30	PRX	5f	1:01.00	breezing	8/29	from gate
9/16	PRX	4f	:50.00	breezing	19/28
9/5	PRX	4f	:48.20	breezing	21/74

Case: First career start. H. Padilla / E. Ruiz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #7, #8 · B #1, #4 · ? #2, #3, #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #4 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #5 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #5 Lone speed on early pace · #7 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75 · #8 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75

R6 Parx Racing · Maiden Claiming $40,000

2:55 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $32,000 · 8 runners2:55 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $32K · Maiden Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1You Don't Grab Me▼J. Vargas Jr. · E. Padilla-PreciadoVargas Jr. · Padilla-PreciadoB556-1Fair 5-117%—55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 753
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 55
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Jorge A Jr Vargas 29% career ★ 10-for-48 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado 36% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Highway Patrol 2-1, R9: Sister Eve 6-1 · Trainer R4: Extrasexymcsteemee 7-2, R7: Associated 7-2
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 55 against a 75 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 PRX 5½f D MCL 40k 5th/8 -9L 55 7.1-1 Std early; closed gap
2Valley Forge P aLSE. Ruiz · H. PadillaRuiz · Padilla?8-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?LS
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 6-for-65 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Hugo O Padilla 32% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Popover Gal 5-2, R8: I Can Run 4-1
Jky 43/199 from post 2
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Eastwood and Ice Diamond breeding. First-time starter from a barn that wins 5% of the time with them (39 tried).
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 2 here: 43 wins, 109 top-3 in 199 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Eastwood out of Ice Diamond (Uptowncharlybrown)
Trainer H. Padilla: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 36% in the money (39 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts)
Jockey E. Ruiz in sprints: 45 wins from 238 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PRX 4f :49.80 breezing 29/51
10/10 PRX 5f 1:02.00 breezing 10/22
9/30 PRX 5f 1:01.00 breezing 8/29 from gate
9/16 PRX 4f :50.00 breezing 19/28
9/5 PRX 4f :48.20 breezing 21/74
3She Runs HotF. Pennington · M. PinoPennington · Pino?4-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey F Pennington 34% career 4-for-39 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael V Pino 36% career ★ 12-for-38 on dirt this meet (32%), #2 of 47 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Big Hinano 6-1, R5: Luv Queen E 5-2, R7: Honour Smarty 5-1 · Trainer R1: Introubleagain 3-1
Debut for a trainer who is 29% with first-timers, over 31 starts. Debut for a Scalding youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $25,000.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD F Pennington from post 3 here: 24 wins, 77 top-3 in 154 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Scalding out of Maritimeconnection (Lookin at Lucky)
Trainer M. Pino: 1st-time starters: 29% wins, 45% in the money (31 starts) · 2-year-olds: 17% wins, 51% in the money (63 starts)
Jockey F. Pennington in sprints: 30 wins from 173 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/26 PRX 3f :37.80 breezing 2/2
10/14 PRX 4f :49.40 breezing 19/34
10/7 PRX 4f :49.20 breezing 21/36
9/30 PRX 4f :48.80 breezing 33/84
9/19 PRX 5f 1:02.00 breezing 12/15
4Music Into Gold▼S. Gonzalez · K. Crook-DemasiGonzalez · Crook-DemasiB559-2Fair 6-115%—55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 55
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez 33% career 7-for-49 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Kathlee Crook-Demasi
Last out was 4th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden claiming $40,000 race at PRX. A 55 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 31 days ago
RECORD Silvestre Gonzalez from post 4 here: 27 wins, 81 top-3 in 191 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 PRX 5½f D MCL 40k 4th/8 -10L 55 8.6-1 Faded turn;some energy
5Diamond Dash▼▲C. Hargrove · D. VelazquezHargrove · VelazquezA586-1Fair 8-111%—58A▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 58
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Daniel Velazquez 29% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: Luminous Secret 8-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Moves up from maiden claiming $16,000 to maiden claiming $40,000. Quick turnaround, just 10 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 15d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/21 PRX 5½f D MCL 16k 2nd/6 -2½L 58 4.6-1 Pursued winner all way
6NorthlondonforeverM. Sanchez · J. ServisSanchez · Servis?7-2Fair 7-223%—Debut?1
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 25-for-128 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer John C Servis 35% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Society Ball 4-1, R8: Dancing On My Own 5-2 · Trainer R5: Natures Fury 4-1, this race: Flamenca 5-1
Before this first start, on Oct 24 it was 2nd of 51 at 4F (:47.60). There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 17.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 29; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Magglio Sanchez from post 6 here: 54 wins, 122 top-3 in 241 rides · 26% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Maximus Mischief out of Lassie's Map (Liam's Map)
Trainer J. Servis: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts) · 2-year-olds: 13% wins, 41% in the money (212 starts)
Jockey M. Sanchez in sprints: 11 wins from 65 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PRX 4f :47.60 breezing 2/51
10/17 PRX 4f :48.40 breezing 3/22 from gate
10/10 PRX 4f :51.20 breezing 79/85
9/5 PRX 4f :48.60 breezing 29/74
8/29 PRX 4f :47.00 breezing 1/44 ● bullet from gate
7Sassy Miss▼F. Martinez · L. StMartinez · StA67 41 55▲▲+18↕8-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best67 41 55 ↕A▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–67 · Last 3 figs 67 41 55
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 8-for-93 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Lewis Uriah St 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Ancient 5-1, R4: Stinger Bee 9-2, R8: Princess Kalamoh 10-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 67, with 59 next best. Finished 2nd in an 8-horse maiden claiming $40,000 race at PRX, beaten 1 length.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 7 here: 13 wins, 47 top-3 in 112 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 PRX 5½f D MCL 40k 2nd/8 -1L 67 38-1 Chased outside;willing
8/25 PRX 5½f D MSW 7th/7 -18L 41 20-1 b Always outrun
7/31 DEL 5½f D MSW 6th/7 -5¼L 55 35-1 Light bump start;rail
8Flamenca▼A. Adorno · J. ServisAdorno · ServisA59 495-1Fair 9-218%—59 49A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 752
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 59 49
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-55 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer John C Servis 35% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Filled With Desire 9-2, R3: Tara's Talent 7-2, R5: Natures Fury 4-1, R7: Aussie's Heir 6-1 · Trainer R5: Natures Fury 4-1, this race: Northlondonforever 7-2
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $40,000 today.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 16 (3F in :35.60), 3 works in 30d
RECORD Abner Adorno from post 8 here: 15 wins, 37 top-3 in 92 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/3 DEL 1m D MSW 4th/5 -8½L 59 3.6-1 b No stretch response
8/16 MTH 1m T MSW 6th/7 -15L 49 11-1 b Bumped; off slowly

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/26	PRX	3f	:37.80	breezing	2/2
10/14	PRX	4f	:49.40	breezing	19/34
10/7	PRX	4f	:49.20	breezing	21/36
9/30	PRX	4f	:48.80	breezing	33/84
9/19	PRX	5f	1:02.00	breezing	12/15

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	5½f D	MCL 40k	4th/8 -10L	55	8.6-1		Faded turn;some energy

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	5½f D	MCL 16k	2nd/6 -2½L	58	4.6-1		Pursued winner all way

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	5½f D	MCL 40k	2nd/8 -1L	67	38-1		Chased outside;willing
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	7th/7 -18L	41	20-1	b	Always outrun
7/31	DEL	5½f D	MSW	6th/7 -5¼L	55	35-1		Light bump start;rail

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $40,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$32,000

Post

2:55 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#6 · 23%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Northlondonforever (a tactical type, M/L 7-2). Backup is #8 Flamenca at 5-1. Use #1 You Don't Grab Me in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 NORTHLONDONFOREVER (7-2) — our number agrees.
#6 NORTHLONDONFOREVER — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.7%, they've got 17.4%.
#8 FLAMENCA — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.1%, they've got 13.0%.
#4 MUSIC INTO GOLD — our #4 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.6%, they've got 14.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#6 NORTHLONDONFOREVER — we make it 20.7%, the morning line works out to 17.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#8 FLAMENCA — we make it 17.1%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 MUSIC INTO GOLD — we make it 16.6%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 YOU DON'T GRAB ME — we make it 15.2%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 VALLEY FORGE P A (8-1) — our fair 10.1% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: sire Eastwood wins 19% at sprint/dirt (n=212); first-time starter — breeding fits

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Diamond Dash.

Lead

5Diamond Dash88

Press

none

Stalk

7Sassy Miss84

8Flamenca78

No style yet

4Music Into Gold711You Don't Grab Me642Valley Forge P A3She Runs Hot6Northlondonforever

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Diamond Dash

Sassy Miss

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Flamenca

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Bet types

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DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 6-9) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

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