Pick sheet

Race 83:49 PM Clm 25000

1 Mi · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Antonacci Girl, is 41% to win (morning line implies 36%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Antonacci Girl ML 8-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -7 ≡ Steady 75–84

Jockey R. Silvera · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 7: 2-2-0 · Dist 5: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1m dirt 79 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	DEL	1m D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -5L	75	2.4-1	b L	5-w 1st;ins 2nd;evenly
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 30k	2nd/14	82	7.1-1	b L	2-4w;bump 1/8;no match
8/22	CNL	1m D	Handicap	2nd/6 -6L	79	3.9-1	b L	Angled 5w1/4;no match

Case: Last out 4th/7 -5L in the fAlw45200n1x at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 75-82-79. Best at today's distance 79. 1-for-5 at the distance. 2-for-7 at Parx Racing. J. Ness / R. Silvera.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Dancing on My Own ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ► Steady

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer F. Dunn · KEE 29: 4-5-5 · Dist 9: 3-2-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 87 · 11 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 50k b	5th/5 -7½L	79	6.5-1	L	Forced pace; faded
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 30k	5th/14 -2L	77	15-1	L	Bmpd brk;clear;weaken
7/24	PEN	1m D	OC 40k b	2nd/4 -1L	87	4.8-1	L	Stlkd;bid;rebuffed

Case: Last out 5th/5 -7½L in the fOC50000b at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 79-77-87. Best at today's distance 87. 3-for-9 at the distance. 4-for-29 at Parx Racing. F. Dunn / M. Sanchez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 I Can Run ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 Last out 4th/7 -8½L in the fOC20000 at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 75-73-76. Best at today's distance 84. 3-for-12 at the distance. 2-for-7 at Parx Racing. C. Gonzalez / E. Ruiz. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey E. Ruiz · Trainer C. Gonzalez · KEE 7: 2-1-0 · Dist 12: 3-0-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 84 · 10 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	1m D	OC 20k	4th/7 -8½L	75	2.0-1	L	Faded turn; came again
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 30k	8th/14 -6¼L	73	23-1	L	Btwn;3-4w trip;evenly
8/15	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 16k n1x	2nd/8 -6L	76	4.6-1	L	Wide trip; second best

★ Distance horse: #3 Princess Kalamoh (10-1) has the best figure in the field at 1m dirt: 88 from 4 tries, record at the distance 14: 3-5-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #6 · B #1, #3, #4

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Lone speed on early pace

R8 Parx Racing · Claiming $25,000

3:49 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $32,000 · 6 runners3:49 PM · 1m Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $32K · Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Princess Kalamoh (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 88 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Jess's Moment▼S. Orellana · J. Gonzalez-MilianOrellana · Gonzalez-MilianB74 73 78►≡@trip 808-1Fair 15-17%► Steady74 73 78 ≡@trip 80B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–78 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 73 78

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Sebastian Orellana 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Jose G Gonzalez-Milian 25% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Dosser 15-1, R2: Seven Belle 20-1, R5: Sushi 12-1, R9: Sheza Bernardini 8-1 · Trainer R5: Uptown Art 6-1

Moves up from optional claiming to $25,000 claiming. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Close btwn; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 30d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	1m D	OC 20k	5th/7 -5½L	74	18-1	b L	Close btwn; faltered
8/24	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	5th/6 -11L	73	11-1	b L	Stalked wide; faltered
7/21	PRX	7f D	Clm 25k	4th/7 -4½L	78	13-1	b L	Rail trip; mild rally

2Antonacci GirlR. Silvera · J. NessSilvera · NessA75 82 79▼-7≡@trip 798-5Fair 7-541%▼ Down -775 82 79 ≡@trip 79A1

Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 82 79

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-54 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 12-for-51 on dirt this meet (24%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Law Of Lory 5-2, R4: Extrasexymcsteemee 7-2, R7: Warrior's Mission 3-1, R9: Perugia 2-1 · Trainer R2: Law Of Lory 5-2, R9: Perugia 2-1

4th last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 7. Class relief: allowance last time, $25,000 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 82 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 2 here: 18 wins, 61 top-3 in 129 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	DEL	1m D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -5L	75	2.4-1	b L	5-w 1st;ins 2nd;evenly
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 30k	2nd/14	82	7.1-1	b L	2-4w;bump 1/8;no match
8/22	CNL	1m D	Handicap	2nd/6 -6L	79	3.9-1	b L	Angled 5w1/4;no match

3Princess Kalamoh★F. Martinez · R. MoscoMartinez · MoscoB74 58 72▲▲+8@trip 8810-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +874 58 72@trip 88B★ Best at the trip 88

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 58 72

★ Best at the trip 88

Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 8-for-93 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Robert Mosco 31% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Ancient 5-1, R4: Stinger Bee 9-2, R6: Sassy Miss 8-1 · Trainer R4: Stinger Bee 9-2, R4: Highway Patrol 2-1

4/8 board here

A 74 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par. Purse goes from $17,000 to $32,000, a step up.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 30d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 3 here: 18 wins, 69 top-3 in 150 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	PEN	1 1/16 D	RHP 40-55	3rd/6 -1L	74	4.3-1	b L	Stalked pace; bid 1/4
9/19	PRX	7f D	OC 16k n1x	12th/13 -20L	58	80-1	b L	Lacked response
8/15	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 16k n1x	4th/8 -8L	72	30-1	b L	Fanned wide; faltered

4Tiz Purple▲A. Castillo · R. AbramsCastillo · AbramsB60 83 83▼▼-21↕3-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -2160 83 83 ↕B▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–83 · Last 3 figs 60 83 83
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey A Castillo 30% career 5-for-49 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ronald Abrams 30% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Grande Felino 20-1, R3: Shudabeenacowgirl 12-1, R4: Accelerated Dating 4-1, R5: Uptown Art 6-1 · Trainer R4: Accelerated Dating 4-1
3/6 board here
A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Quick turnaround, just 10 days since the last start.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD A Castillo from post 4 here: 10 wins, 36 top-3 in 95 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/21 PRX 6½f D Alw n1x 7th/9 -12L 60 7.2-1 L Wide; retreated
9/30 PRX 6f D OC 25k Won/5 by ½ 83 2.7-1 L Outrun early; wide bid
9/2 PRX 6f D OC 25k c 2nd/3 83 0.7-1 L Stalked; led;outdueled

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6½f D	Alw n1x	7th/9 -12L	60	7.2-1	L	Wide; retreated
9/30	PRX	6f D	OC 25k	Won/5 by ½	83	2.7-1	L	Outrun early; wide bid
9/2	PRX	6f D	OC 25k c	2nd/3	83	0.7-1	L	Stalked; led;outdueled

5Dancing on My OwnM. Sanchez · F. DunnSanchez · DunnA79 77 87►@trip 875-2Fair 2-133%► Steady79 77 87@trip 87A2

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 77 87

Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 25-for-128 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Felissa Dunn 30% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Society Ball 4-1, R6: Northlondonforever 7-2

CLASS UP

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 84 next best. Was running in optional claiming; today's $25,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 53 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Magglio Sanchez from post 5 here: 71 wins, 163 top-3 in 298 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 50k b	5th/5 -7½L	79	6.5-1	L	Forced pace; faded
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 30k	5th/14 -2L	77	15-1	L	Bmpd brk;clear;weaken
7/24	PEN	1m D	OC 40k b	2nd/4 -1L	87	4.8-1	L	Stlkd;bid;rebuffed

6I Can RunE. Ruiz · C. GonzalezRuiz · GonzalezA75 73 76▼-3@trip 844-1Fair 7-113%▼ Down -375 73 76@trip 84A3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 73 76

Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 6-for-65 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Claudio A Gonzalez 31% career 2-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Popover Gal 5-2, R6: Valley Forge P A 8-1

Turns back in 10 days. Beaten 8½ lengths for 4th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 21d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 6 here: 22 wins, 89 top-3 in 192 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	1m D	OC 20k	4th/7 -8½L	75	2.0-1	L	Faded turn; came again
9/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 30k	8th/14 -6¼L	73	23-1	L	Btwn;3-4w trip;evenly
8/15	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 16k n1x	2nd/8 -6L	76	4.6-1	L	Wide trip; second best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $25,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$32,000

Post

3:49 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 41%

Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.51

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Antonacci Girl (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 75 · 82 · 79. Backup is #5 Dancing On My Own at 5-2. Use #6 I Can Run in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 ANTONACCI GIRL (8-5) — our number agrees.
#2 ANTONACCI GIRL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 36.7%, they've got 29.1%.
#5 DANCING ON MY OWN — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 28.8%, they've got 21.6%.
#6 I CAN RUN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 15.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 ANTONACCI GIRL — we make it 36.7%, the morning line works out to 29.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 DANCING ON MY OWN — we make it 28.8%, the morning line works out to 21.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Dancing On My Own; pressure from #3 Princess Kalamoh, #4 Tiz Purple; the shape helps #1 Jess's Moment, #2 Antonacci Girl, #4 Tiz Purple; and works against #3 Princess Kalamoh, #5 Dancing On My Own.

Lead

5Dancing On My Own823Princess Kalamoh81

Press

4Tiz Purple851Jess's Moment822Antonacci Girl75

Stalk

none

6I Can Run80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Tiz Purple

Jess's Moment

Dancing On My Own

Princess Kalamoh

Antonacci Girl

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

I Can Run

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