Pick sheet

Race 112:40 PM Clm 7500n2l

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Johnny Bay Goode, is 37% to win (morning line implies 32%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Johnny Bay Goode ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best

Jockey J. Ramos · Trainer W. Potts · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 74 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DEL	5½f D	MCL 20k	Won/6	74	1.5-1	b L	4-5p;bid3/16;drw clear
9/30	BEL	7f D	MCL 20k	10th/12 -7¼L	62	25-1	b L	Hit gate;bmp;5p;6p1/4
8/23	MTH	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/5 -2L	62	1.7-1	b L	Inside duel; weakened

Case: Last out won in the Md20000 at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 74-62-62. Best at today's distance 74. 1-for-1 at the distance. W. Potts / J. Ramos.

Knock: Never raced at Parx Racing.

Contender #2 Major Weigelia ML 4-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -20 ↕ Up and down 46–74 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey L. Hoskins · Trainer H. Wyner · KEE 5: 1-1-0 · Dist 3: 1-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 74 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2lc	8th/8 -9L	46	3.3-1	b L	Rapid pace; stopped
8/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k bc	2nd/11	68	2.9-1	b L	Clear pace; weakened
7/13	PRX	5½f D	MCL 10k	Won/5	74	0.6-1	b L	Clear all way driving

Case: Last out 8th/8 -9L in the Clm12500n2lc at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 46-68-74. Best at today's distance 74. 1-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Parx Racing. H. Wyner / L. Hoskins.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Filled With Desire ML 9-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -17 ↕ Up and down 55–83 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (55 vs 83) Last out 8th/9 -8½L in the Clm7500n2l at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 55-83-68. Best at today's distance 71. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-10 at Parx Racing. B. Hawthorne / A. Adorno. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey A. Adorno · Trainer B. Hawthorne · KEE 10: 1-0-3 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 71 · 11 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	8th/9 -8½L	55	2.6-1	b L	Very wide turn;stretch
5/2	PRX	6f D	MCL 15kc	Won/5	83	0.3-1	b L	Set pace; ridden out
3/12	PRX	6½f D	MCL 15kc	3rd/6 by hd	68	1.5-1	b L	Wdnd; resisted; tired

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #2, #6, #8 · C #1, #7

Angles: #1 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #2 Lone speed on early pace · #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (55 vs 83) · #6 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #7 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #8 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 78

R1 Parx Racing · Claiming $7,500

12:40 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $21,000 · 7 runners (1 out)12:40 PM · 5½f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $21K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Big Dosser▼Ran 6thS. Orellana · J. BertoneOrellana · BertoneC46 51 40►15-1Fair 50-12%► Steady46 51 40C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 46 51 40

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Sebastian Orellana 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Joann Bertone 13% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Seven Belle 20-1, R5: Sushi 12-1, R8: Jess's Moment 8-1, R9: Sheza Bernardini 8-1 · Trainer R4: Depoli 15-1

60D LAYOFF

A big drop, $16,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming, and worth asking why. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	MTH	-5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	6th/6 -10L	46	52-1	b L	Inside; gave way
8/14	MTH	5f T	Clm 16k n2l	5th/5 -3¾L	51	34-1	b L	Inside; no rally
7/19	MTH	1 1/16 D	Clm 16k b	5th/6 -17L	40	43-1	b L	Vied inside; gave way

2Major Weigelia▲Ran 1stL. Hoskins · H. WynerHoskins · WynerB46 68 74▼▼-20↕@trip 744-1Fair 7-222%▼▼ Big drop -2046 68 74 ↕@trip 74B▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 46 68 74

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Luke Hoskins 14% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Harold Wyner 24% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Miskita 5-1

New trainer: Jose A Gallegos had it last time, Harold Wyner now. Figures have slipped: 74, 68, 46 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 31 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2lc	8th/8 -9L	46	3.3-1	b L	Rapid pace; stopped
8/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k bc	2nd/11	68	2.9-1	b L	Clear pace; weakened
7/13	PRX	5½f D	MCL 10k	Won/5	74	0.6-1	b L	Clear all way driving

3Johnny Bay GoodeRan 2ndJ. Ramos · W. PottsRamos · PottsA74 62 62▲▲+9@trip 742-1Fair 8-537%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best74 62 62@trip 74A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 62 62

Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Wayne Potts 30% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Little Gussie 12-1, R9: Miss Interpatation 6-1 · Trainer R9: Luminous Secret 8-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at DEL at 1.5-1. Was running in maiden claiming $20,000; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DEL	5½f D	MCL 20k	Won/6	74	1.5-1	b L	4-5p;bid3/16;drw clear
9/30	BEL	7f D	MCL 20k	10th/12 -7¼L	62	25-1	b L	Hit gate;bmp;5p;6p1/4
8/23	MTH	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/5 -2L	62	1.7-1	b L	Inside duel; weakened

4IntroubleagainL. Ocasio · M. PinoOcasio · PinoA58 74 74▼▼-10↕3-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1058 74 74 ↕A

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–74 · Last 3 figs 58 74 74

Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 5-for-63 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Michael V Pino 36% career ★ 12-for-38 on dirt this meet (32%), #2 of 47

Also today · Jockey R2: Catch Me A Catch 2-1 · Trainer R6: She Runs Hot 4-1

CLASS UP4/7 board here

Michael V Pino takes over the training from Ilias Tapsas. Back to 5½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Luis M Ocasio from post 4 here: 12 wins, 46 top-3 in 149 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2lc	7th/8 -8½L	58	3.8-1	b L	Close two path; empty
9/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n2lc	2nd/9	74	1.2-1	b L	Widened; tired late
8/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/8 -4L	74	19-1	b L	Split rivals advancing

5Filled With Desire▼Ran 5thA. Adorno · B. HawthorneAdorno · HawthorneA55 83 68▼▼-17↕@trip 719-2Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -1755 83 68 ↕@trip 71A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (55 vs 83)3

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–83 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 83 68

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (55 vs 83)

Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-55 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Bobbi Anne Hawthorne 28% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Tara's Talent 7-2, R5: Natures Fury 4-1, R6: Flamenca 5-1, R7: Aussie's Heir 6-1 · Trainer R5: Luv Queen E 5-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 83. Was 9th of 9 at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 16d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Abner Adorno from post 5 here: 20 wins, 70 top-3 in 183 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	8th/9 -8½L	55	2.6-1	b L	Very wide turn;stretch
5/2	PRX	6f D	MCL 15kc	Won/5	83	0.3-1	b L	Set pace; ridden out
3/12	PRX	6½f D	MCL 15kc	3rd/6 by hd	68	1.5-1	b L	Wdnd; resisted; tired

6Chilling Time▼Ran 4thA. Bowman · H. WhylieBowman · WhylieB65 58 65►≡@trip 618-1Fair 15-16%► Steady65 58 65 ≡@trip 61B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 58–67 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 58 65

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey Adam Bowman 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Herold O Whylie 19% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Beautiful Sunshine 20-1 · Trainer R2: Beautiful Sunshine 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 78 par for this level.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 235 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 19 starts here

RECORD Adam Bowman from post 6 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 109 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/9 -2½L	65	11-1	b L	Closed gap inside
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/10 -11L	58	30-1	b L	Angled in; mild bid
8/31	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k b	4th/10 -5L	65	17-1	b L	Rail turn; closed well

7Grande Felino▼Ran 7thA. Castillo · T. GallimoreCastillo · GallimoreC37 49 46▼▼-1420-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1437 49 46C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 37 49 46

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78

Jockey A Castillo 30% career 5-for-49 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Trevor Gallimore 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Shudabeenacowgirl 12-1, R4: Accelerated Dating 4-1, R5: Uptown Art 6-1, R8: Tiz Purple 3-1 · Trainer R3: Shudabeenacowgirl 12-1, R5: Alyvia's Lil Girl 12-1

CLASS DROP

Finished 5th in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at PEN, beaten 12 lengths. Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 22d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD A Castillo from post 7 here: 5 wins, 26 top-3 in 76 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	PEN	6f D	Clm 5k n2x	5th/5 -12L	37	41-1	b L	Step slow; used inside
9/28	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/7 -10L	49	62-1	b L	Weakened steadily
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	8th/10 -17L	46	54-1	b L	Inside; faltered

8Peach Smoothie▼LSRan 3rdJ. Rangel · A. RomeroRangel · RomeroB63 60 51▲+4@trip 528-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +463 60 51@trip 52B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 78LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 52 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 60 51

▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 78LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Joezer Rangel 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Alexis Romero 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 51 to 60 to 63. Changes barns, from Jose M Santaella-Calderon to Alexis Romero.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 83d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Joezer Rangel from post 8 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 42 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	PEN	6f D	Clm 10k n2l	2nd/4 -2L	63	5.4-1	b L	Bid btwn;led;2nd best
9/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/9 -6½L	60	21-1	b L	Rated; angled out
9/9	PRX	1 1/16 D	OC 16k	5th/5 -14L	51	36-1	b L	Set pace; stopped

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Johnny Bay Goode, finished 2nd.

1st2Major WeigeliaWin$3.20Place$2.20Show$2.10Our #2

2nd3Johnny Bay GoodeWin—Place$2.80Show$2.40Our #1

3rd8Peach SmoothieWin—Place—Show$3.60Our #4

4th6Chilling TimeOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

12:40 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 37%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.76

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Johnny Bay Goode (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 74 · 62 · 62. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Major Weigelia at 4-1. Use #5 Filled With Desire in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Johnny Bay Goode ran 2nd · Major Weigelia won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 5th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 JOHNNY BAY GOODE	2nd
#2	#2 MAJOR WEIGELIA	1st
#3	#5 FILLED WITH DESIRE	5th
#4	#8 PEACH SMOOTHIE	3rd
#5	#6 CHILLING TIME	4th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Major Weigelia	our #2
2nd	#3 Johnny Bay Goode	our #1
3rd	#8 Peach Smoothie	our #4
4th	#6 Chilling Time	our #5
5th	#5 Filled With Desire	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 JOHNNY BAY GOODE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 JOHNNY BAY GOODE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 31.7%, they've got 25.7%.
#2 MAJOR WEIGELIA — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.8%, they've got 15.4%.
#5 FILLED WITH DESIRE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.6%, they've got 14.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 JOHNNY BAY GOODE — we make it 31.7%, the morning line works out to 25.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 MAJOR WEIGELIA — we make it 20.8%, the morning line works out to 15.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 FILLED WITH DESIRE — we make it 19.6%, the morning line works out to 14.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 PEACH SMOOTHIE (8-1) — our fair 10.7% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: figures trending up 51→60→63 (project ~60)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Major Weigelia; pressure from #1 Big Dosser, #5 Filled With Desire; the shape helps #3 Johnny Bay Goode, #6 Chilling Time; and works against #1 Big Dosser, #2 Major Weigelia, #5 Filled With Desire.

Lead

2Major Weigelia961Big Dosser815Filled With Desire68

Press

4Introubleagain908Peach Smoothie87

Stalk

7Grande Felino80

3Johnny Bay Goode856Chilling Time77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Major Weigelia

Introubleagain

Peach Smoothie

Big Dosser

Grande Felino

Filled With Desire

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Chilling Time

Johnny Bay Goode

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 1-4) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

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