Pick sheet

Race 52:28 PM Clm 7500n2l

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Luv Queen E, is 33% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #4 Luv Queen E ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -7 ★ Best at 5½f dirt: 82 ↕ Up and down 49–82 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey F. Pennington · Trainer B. Hawthorne · KEE 6: 1-1-1 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 82 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/9 -3L	54	7.1-1	b L	Long lead; gave way
9/12	DEL	5½f D	OC 30k	7th/8 -7½L	53	9.3-1	b L	Set pace; gave way
8/14	DEL	6f D	OC 50k n2l	6th/6 -6¾L	49	9.4-1	b L	Rail; gave way 1/4

Case: Last out 6th/9 -3L in the fClm12500n2l at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 54-53-49. Best at today's distance 82. 1-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-6 at Parx Racing. B. Hawthorne / F. Pennington.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #3 Natures Fury ML 4-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 63–66 ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 73

Jockey A. Adorno · Trainer J. Servis · KEE 4: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	MED	5f T	MCL 10k	Won/8	66	1.8-1	b L	Pace ins; pulled away
9/7	MTH	5f T	MCL 16k	3rd/10 -6L	63	6.6-1	b L	4w turn; 6w into str
8/20	PEN	5f D	MCL 16k	2nd/7	65	12-1	b L	2wd;outer pressr;game

Case: Last out won in the fMd10000 at MED. Last Brisnet figures 66-63-65. Best at today's distance 63. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Parx Racing. J. Servis / A. Adorno.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #7 Miskita ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -10 ↕ Up and down 42–74 Last out 6th/9 -9L in the fClm7500n2l at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 51-42-68. Best at today's distance 62. 0-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Parx Racing. J. Bravo-Estrada / L. Hoskins. Knock: 0-for-6 at the distance.

Jockey L. Hoskins · Trainer J. Bravo-Estrada · KEE 5: 1-0-1 · Dist 6: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 62 · 10 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/9 -9L	51	3.9-1	b L	Forced pace; faltered
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2l	9th/9 -15L	42	12-1	b L	Inside; gave way
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2lc	4th/11 by hd	68	4.0-1	b L	Clear; wdnd; weakened

Longshot #1 Little Gussie ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ► Steady

Jockey J. Ramos · Trainer J. Bacallao-Vega · Dist 7: 1-3-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 66 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DEL	5½f D	Clm 8k n2l	6th/11 -13L	58	32-1	b L	Passed tired rivals
9/25	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k n2l	7th/7 -11L	44	11-1	b L	Stalk;2p;faded
9/12	DEL	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/13 -5¼L	65	20-1	b L	Swung wide; no rally

Case: Last out 6th/11 -13L in the fClm8000n2l at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 58-44-65. Best at today's distance 66. 1-for-7 at the distance. J. Bacallao-Vega / J. Ramos.

Knock: Never raced at Parx Racing.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #8 · B #1, #5, #7 · C #2, #6

Angles: #3 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 73 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73 · #6 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73 · #8 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73

R5 Parx Racing · Claiming $7,500

2:28 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $21,000 · 8 runners2:28 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $21K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Little GussieLSJ. Ramos · J. Bacallao-VegaRamos · Bacallao-VegaB58 44 65►@trip 6612-1Fair 12-18%► Steady58 44 65@trip 66BLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 66 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 44 65

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Juan Carlos Bacallao-Vega

Also today · Jockey R1: Johnny Bay Goode 2-1, R9: Miss Interpatation 6-1

New trainer: Ben Ramos had it last time, Juan Carlos Bacallao-Vega now. Beaten 13 lengths for 6th in an 11-horse $5,000 claiming race at DEL.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 95d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DEL	5½f D	Clm 8k n2l	6th/11 -13L	58	32-1	b L	Passed tired rivals
9/25	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k n2l	7th/7 -11L	44	11-1	b L	Stalk;2p;faded
9/12	DEL	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/13 -5¼L	65	20-1	b L	Swung wide; no rally

2SushiS. Orellana · J. DiazOrellana · DiazC50 49 62▼▼-812-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -850 49 62C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 50 49 62

Jockey Sebastian Orellana 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Jorge Diaz 26% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Dosser 15-1, R2: Seven Belle 20-1, R8: Jess's Moment 8-1, R9: Sheza Bernardini 8-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Best recent figure is 63, well under the 73 par for this level. Changes barns, from Jorge Delgado to Jorge Diaz.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 0)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Steadied start), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 18d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	MTH	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/6 -9L	50	15-1	L	Steadied start
7/25	MTH	6f D	Clm 7k b	6th/6 -7½L	49	4.8-1	L	Chased 3w turn; faded
7/11	MTH	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k b	7th/9 -8¼L	62	13-1	L	Steady st; tight chute

3Natures Fury▼A. Adorno · J. ServisAdorno · ServisA66 63 65►≡4-1Fair 7-222%► Steady66 63 65 ≡A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 732
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–66 · Last 3 figs 66 63 65
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 73
Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-55 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer John C Servis 35% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Filled With Desire 9-2, R3: Tara's Talent 7-2, R6: Flamenca 5-1, R7: Aussie's Heir 6-1 · Trainer R6: Northlondonforever 7-2, R6: Flamenca 5-1
CLASS DROPWON LAST
Switches from turf to dirt. Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at MED.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Pace ins; pulled away.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 23 (3F in :35.20), 1 work in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Abner Adorno from post 3 here: 37 wins, 87 top-3 in 187 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 MED 5f T MCL 10k Won/8 66 1.8-1 b L Pace ins; pulled away
9/7 MTH 5f T MCL 16k 3rd/10 -6L 63 6.6-1 b L 4w turn; 6w into str
8/20 PEN 5f D MCL 16k 2nd/7 65 12-1 b L 2wd;outer pressr;game

4Luv Queen E▲★F. Pennington · B. HawthornePennington · HawthorneA54 53 49▼-7↕@trip 825-2Fair 2-133%▼ Down -754 53 49 ↕@trip 82A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 821

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 53 49

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 82

Jockey F Pennington 34% career 4-for-39 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Bobbi Anne Hawthorne 28% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Big Hinano 6-1, R6: She Runs Hot 4-1, R7: Honour Smarty 5-1 · Trainer R1: Filled With Desire 9-2

3/6 board here

Drops from $12,500 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Tops the field on speed figures, an 82 against 74 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 175 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD F Pennington from post 4 here: 18 wins, 68 top-3 in 136 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/9 -3L	54	7.1-1	b L	Long lead; gave way
9/12	DEL	5½f D	OC 30k	7th/8 -7½L	53	9.3-1	b L	Set pace; gave way
8/14	DEL	6f D	OC 50k n2l	6th/6 -6¾L	49	9.4-1	b L	Rail; gave way 1/4

5Standish▼N. Herman · E. HernandezHerman · HernandezB49 63 42▼-43-1<1%▼ Down -449 63 42B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 49 63 42
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73
Jockey Noel Herman 18% career 3-for-34 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Enrique Hernandez 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK
Finished 7th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at DEL, beaten 11 lengths. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Aug 15, in :36.00.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 15; 0 works in 30d
RECORD Noel Herman from post 5 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 32 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 DEL 6f D OC 32k 7th/7 -11L 49 20-1 b Dueled btwn;gave way
9/10 DEL 6f D MCL 25k Won/11 63 36-1 b Vied 4w; led; dug in
8/1 DEL 6f D MSW 7th/7 -14L 42 69-1 Slow start; trailed

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	DEL	6f D	OC 32k	7th/7 -11L	49	20-1	b	Dueled btwn;gave way
9/10	DEL	6f D	MCL 25k	Won/11	63	36-1	b	Vied 4w; led; dug in
8/1	DEL	6f D	MSW	7th/7 -14L	42	69-1		Slow start; trailed

6Alyvia's Lil Girl▼D. Haddock · T. GallimoreHaddock · GallimoreC61 47 63▲+4@trip 5312-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +461 47 63@trip 53C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 47 63

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73

Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 8-for-75 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Trevor Gallimore 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Lucky Lu Lu 3-1, R3: Bright Kohana 3-1, R7: Cajun Reward 5-1 · Trainer R1: Grande Felino 20-1, R3: Shudabeenacowgirl 12-1

CLASS UP

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Class relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 85 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 6 here: 25 wins, 106 top-3 in 252 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	PEN	6f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/5 -3½L	61	31-1	b L	Chased;drifted;faltr'd
10/8	PEN	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	DNF	—	14-1	b L	Reared;lost jock start
9/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n2l	9th/9 -9½L	47	37-1	b L	Forced pace; gave way

7MiskitaL. Hoskins · J. Bravo-EstradaHoskins · Bravo-EstradaB51 42 68▼▼-10↕@trip 625-1Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -1051 42 68 ↕@trip 62B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–74 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 42 68

Jockey Luke Hoskins 14% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jaime Bravo-Estrada 19% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Major Weigelia 4-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Turns back in 10 days. Carries 112 pounds, 7 less than last time.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Forced pace; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 7; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/9 -9L	51	3.9-1	b L	Forced pace; faltered
10/12	PRX	6½f D	Clm 12k n2l	9th/9 -15L	42	12-1	b L	Inside; gave way
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2lc	4th/11 by hd	68	4.0-1	b L	Clear; wdnd; weakened

8Uptown Art▼A. Castillo · J. Gonzalez-MilianCastillo · Gonzalez-MilianA62 64 37▲▲+8↕@trip 656-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +862 64 37 ↕@trip 65A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–64 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 64 37

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73

Jockey A Castillo 30% career 5-for-49 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose G Gonzalez-Milian 25% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Grande Felino 20-1, R3: Shudabeenacowgirl 12-1, R4: Accelerated Dating 4-1, R8: Tiz Purple 3-1 · Trainer R8: Jess's Moment 8-1

Jky 8/53 from post 8

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 88). 3rd of 23 at 4F on Sep 1, in :47.80.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 31d ago)

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

RECORD A Castillo from post 8 here: 8 wins, 21 top-3 in 53 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/9 -2½L	62	6.9-1	b L	Brief lead; weakened
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	5th/11 -3½L	64	25-1	b L	Pursued; faltered
7/22	DEL	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	9th/9 -3¼L	37	5.2-1	b L	Faltered upper stretch

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

2:28 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 33%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.76

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Luv Queen E (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 54 · 53 · 49. Backup is #3 Natures Fury at 4-1. Use #7 Miskita in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 LUV QUEEN E (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 LUV QUEEN E — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 28.3%, they've got 22.4%.
#3 NATURES FURY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.6%, they've got 15.7%.
#7 MISKITA — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.7%, they've got 13.1%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 LUV QUEEN E — we make it 28.3%, the morning line works out to 22.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#3 NATURES FURY — we make it 20.6%, the morning line works out to 15.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 MISKITA — we make it 17.7%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#8 UPTOWN ART — we make it 13.2%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 LITTLE GUSSIE (12-1) — our fair 7.6% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Luv Queen E; pressure from #5 Standish, #8 Uptown Art; and works against #2 Sushi, #4 Luv Queen E, #5 Standish.

Lead

4Luv Queen E975Standish968Uptown Art887Miskita862Sushi83

Press

3Natures Fury891Little Gussie78

Stalk

none

No style yet

6Alyvia's Lil Girl92

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Luv Queen E

Standish

Natures Fury

Uptown Art

Miskita

Sushi

Little Gussie

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Luv Queen E

Alyvia's Lil Girl

Miskita

Uptown Art

Little Gussie

Natures Fury

Sushi

Standish

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Bet types

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