Pick sheet

Race 21:07 PM Md Sp WtEarly Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Catch Me a Catch, is 39% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: #3 is the only true speed and could control it.

Top pick #7 Catch Me a Catch ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey L. Ocasio · Trainer L. Linder Jr. · KEE 5: 0-2-1 · Dist 4: 0-2-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 72 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	6f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -½L	72	2.2-1	L	Step slow;rail to lane
9/14	PRX	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/6	66	2.9-1	L	Wide bid turn; flatten
8/15	PRX	6½f D	MCL 30kc	5th/10 -4½L	63	7.8-1	L	Shoe repair; very wide

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 72-66-63. Best at today's distance 72. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Parx Racing. L. Linder Jr. / L. Ocasio.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #4 Law of Lory ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey R. Silvera · Trainer J. Ness · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 254 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
2/19	TP	6½f D	MSW	7th/11 -4½L	69	3.2-1	L	Ins;stdy1/2;saved grnd
1/8	TP	6f D	MSW	5th/12 -2½L	75	2.9-1	L	Bmp;ins;bmp 3/16;stay

Case: Last out 7th/11 -4½L in the fMdSpWt at TP. Last Brisnet figures 69-75. Best at today's distance 75. 0-for-1 at the distance. J. Ness / R. Silvera.

Knock: Off 254 days. Never raced at Parx Racing.

Use #3 Lucky Lu Lu ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 64–70 ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81 Last out 3rd in the fsMdSpWt at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 66-64-70. Best at today's distance 70. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Parx Racing. R. Vega / D. Haddock. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Haddock · Trainer R. Vega · KEE 4: 0-0-3 · Dist 3: 0-0-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 70 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/6 -2L	66	2.8-1	b L	Stalked wide; empty
9/14	PRX	6f D	MSW	3rd/6 -3½L	64	17-1	L	Bid turn; lasted show
8/26	PRX	6f D	MSW	3rd/4 -1½L	70	3.3-1	L	Pursued winner; tired

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #7 · B #2, #3, #5 · ? #1 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #3 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #4 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #5 Best fig 13 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #6 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #7 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81

R2 Parx Racing · Maiden Special Weight

1:07 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $50,000 · 6 runners (1 out)1:07 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners (1 out)

Official $50K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Big HinanoRan 3rdF. Pennington · C. DoranPennington · Doran?6-1Fair 10-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey F Pennington 34% career 4-for-39 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Carl Doran 12% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Luv Queen E 5-2, R6: She Runs Hot 4-1, R7: Honour Smarty 5-1
Debut for this Uncle Lino filly, whose dam is Inner Demons. Tops the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back
RECORD F Pennington from post 1 here: 30 wins, 77 top-3 in 159 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Uncle Lino out of Inner Demons (Wiseman's Ferry)
Trainer C. Doran: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (7 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 33% in the money (15 starts)
Jockey F. Pennington in sprints: 30 wins from 173 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 FAI 4f :49.40 breezing 10/16
10/3 FAI 4f :49.20 breezing 14/56
9/25 FAI 4f :50.40 breezing 13/18 from gate
9/8 FAI 4f :52.00 breezing 2/2
8/29 FAI 4f :49.80 breezing 9/20
2Seven Belle▼Ran 2ndS. Orellana · J. NicholsonOrellana · NicholsonB55 50 48▲▲+12↕@trip 5520-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best55 50 48 ↕@trip 55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 31–55 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 50 48
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Sebastian Orellana 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Junior W Nicholson 23% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Big Dosser 15-1, R5: Sushi 12-1, R8: Jess's Moment 8-1, R9: Sheza Bernardini 8-1 · Trainer R3: Fast Motion 6-1
LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Best recent figure is 55, well under the 81 par for this level. Figures are climbing: 48, 50, 55 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 20; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/14 PRX 6f D MSW 6th/6 -9½L 55 28-1 b Brief speed; gave way
1/8 TP 6f D MSW 12th/12 -9½L 50 71-1 b Close up 3wbtw;falterd
12/19 TP 6½f D MSW 11th/12 -9¾L 48 63-1 b Quick ins led 1/2 wknd
3Lucky Lu Lu▼Ran 6thD. Haddock · R. VegaHaddock · VegaB66 64 70►≡@trip 703-1Fair 7-222%► Steady66 64 70 ≡@trip 70B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 813
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–70 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 64 70
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 8-for-75 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Richard Vega 27% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Bright Kohana 3-1, R5: Alyvia's Lil Girl 12-1, R7: Cajun Reward 5-1
3/4 board here
Finished 3rd in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at PRX, beaten 2 lengths. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 70 against a 81 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 84d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 3 here: 40 wins, 124 top-3 in 264 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 PRX 6f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/6 -2L 66 2.8-1 b L Stalked wide; empty
9/14 PRX 6f D MSW 3rd/6 -3½L 64 17-1 L Bid turn; lasted show
8/26 PRX 6f D MSW 3rd/4 -1½L 70 3.3-1 L Pursued winner; tired
4Law of Lory▼Ran 4thR. Silvera · J. NessSilvera · NessA69 75@trip 755-2Fair 3-126%—69 75@trip 75A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 812
Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 15-for-54 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 12-for-51 on dirt this meet (24%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Extrasexymcsteemee 7-2, R7: Warrior's Mission 3-1, R8: Antonacci Girl 8-5, R9: Perugia 2-1 · Trainer R8: Antonacci Girl 8-5, R9: Perugia 2-1
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Freshened 254 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 12d ago)
RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 4 here: 27 wins, 90 top-3 in 153 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
2/19 TP 6½f D MSW 7th/11 -4½L 69 3.2-1 L Ins;stdy1/2;saved grnd
1/8 TP 6f D MSW 5th/12 -2½L 75 2.9-1 L Bmp;ins;bmp 3/16;stay
5Beautiful Sunshine▼Ran 5thA. Bowman · H. WhylieBowman · WhylieB13 9@trip 1320-1Fair 99-11%—13 9@trip 13B▼ Best fig 13 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 13 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 13 9
▼ Best fig 13 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Adam Bowman 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Herold O Whylie 19% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Chilling Time 8-1 · Trainer R1: Chilling Time 8-1
Beaten 11 lengths for 6th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at PRX. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Adam Bowman from post 5 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 115 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 PRX 6f D fsMdSpWt 6th/6 -11L 13 28-1 b L In tight fading turn
6/15 PRX 6f D MCL 25k 7th/8 -24L 9 50-1 b Brief speed; stopped
6Ancient▼F. Martinez · J. SolisMartinez · SolisA66 64 74▼-4@trip 745-1<1%▼ Down -466 64 74@trip 74A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 64 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 8-for-93 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jacinto Solis 32% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Stinger Bee 9-2, R6: Sassy Miss 8-1, R8: Princess Kalamoh 10-1
2/3 board here
Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. 0 for 4 at today's distance.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 6 here: 20 wins, 74 top-3 in 187 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 PEN 6f D MSW 3rd/6 -9L 66 12-1 L Closed willingly 4wd
9/14 PRX 6f D MSW 4th/6 -8L 64 7.8-1 L Far back; some energy
8/26 PRX 6f D MSW 2nd/4 -1½L 74 1.6-1 L Angled out; rallied

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	FAI	4f	:49.40	breezing	10/16
10/3	FAI	4f	:49.20	breezing	14/56
9/25	FAI	4f	:50.40	breezing	13/18	from gate
9/8	FAI	4f	:52.00	breezing	2/2
8/29	FAI	4f	:49.80	breezing	9/20

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	PRX	6f D	MSW	6th/6 -9½L	55	28-1	b	Brief speed; gave way
1/8	TP	6f D	MSW	12th/12 -9½L	50	71-1	b	Close up 3wbtw;falterd
12/19	TP	6½f D	MSW	11th/12 -9¾L	48	63-1	b	Quick ins led 1/2 wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	6f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/6 -11L	13	28-1	b L	In tight fading turn
6/15	PRX	6f D	MCL 25k	7th/8 -24L	9	50-1	b	Brief speed; stopped

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	PEN	6f D	MSW	3rd/6 -9L	66	12-1	L	Closed willingly 4wd
9/14	PRX	6f D	MSW	4th/6 -8L	64	7.8-1	L	Far back; some energy
8/26	PRX	6f D	MSW	2nd/4 -1½L	74	1.6-1	L	Angled out; rallied

7Catch Me a Catch▼Ran 1stL. Ocasio · L. Linder Jr.Ocasio · Linder Jr.A72 66 63▲▲+9@trip 722-1Fair 8-539%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best72 66 63@trip 72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 811

Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 66 63

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 5-for-63 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Louis Jr Linder 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Introubleagain 3-1

Jky 15/122 from post 7

Has moved up each time out, 63 to 66 to 72. Maiden through 6 starts.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 60 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Luis M Ocasio from post 7 here: 15 wins, 38 top-3 in 122 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	PRX	6f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -½L	72	2.2-1	L	Step slow;rail to lane
9/14	PRX	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/6	66	2.9-1	L	Wide bid turn; flatten
8/15	PRX	6½f D	MCL 30kc	5th/10 -4½L	63	7.8-1	L	Shoe repair; very wide

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #3 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Catch Me A Catch, won.

1st7Catch Me A CatchWin$7.20Place$3.80Show$3.00Our #1

2nd2Seven BelleWin—Place$10.80Show$6.60Our #5

3rd1Big HinanoWin—Place—Show$7.60Our #4

4th4Law Of LoryOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$50,000

Post

1:07 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 39%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 Catch Me A Catch (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 66 · 63. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Law Of Lory at 5-2. Use #3 Lucky Lu Lu in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Catch Me A Catch won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, 4th, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 CATCH ME A CATCH	1st
#2	#4 LAW OF LORY	4th
#3	#3 LUCKY LU LU	6th
#4	#1 BIG HINANO	3rd
#5	#2 SEVEN BELLE	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#7 Catch Me a Catch	our #1
2nd	#2 Seven Belle	our #5
3rd	#1 Big Hinano	our #4
4th	#4 Law of Lory	our #2
5th	#5 Beautiful Sunshine	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 CATCH ME A CATCH (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 CATCH ME A CATCH — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 31.1%, they've got 26.2%.
#4 LAW OF LORY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 27.1%, they've got 22.4%.
#3 LUCKY LU LU — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.3%, they've got 19.6%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 CATCH ME A CATCH — we make it 31.1%, the morning line works out to 26.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 LAW OF LORY — we make it 27.1%, the morning line works out to 22.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#3 LUCKY LU LU — we make it 23.3%, the morning line works out to 19.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Lucky Lu Lu; the shape helps #4 Law Of Lory, #7 Catch Me A Catch; and works against #1 Big Hinano, #2 Seven Belle, #3 Lucky Lu Lu.

Lead

3Lucky Lu Lu88

Press

none

Stalk

4Law Of Lory927Catch Me A Catch88

6Ancient81

No style yet

2Seven Belle885Beautiful Sunshine881Big Hinano

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Law Of Lory

Lucky Lu Lu

Catch Me A Catch

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ancient

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