Pick sheet

Race 31:34 PM Clm 7500n1y

6.5F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Popover Gal, is 36% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #5 Popover Gal ML 5-2 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 70–78

Jockey E. Ruiz · Trainer A. Velazquez · KEE 21: 5-5-2 · Dist 9: 1-2-1 · best fig at 6½f dirt 80 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n1y	2nd/7 -2½L	78	1.4-1	b L	Brief fade; came again
9/1	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n1y	3rd/7 -2L	76	2.7-1	b L	Rail trip; willingly
7/22	PRX	7f D	Clm 7k n1y	3rd/7 -4½L	70	1.0-1	b L	Forced pace; empty

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm7500n1y at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 78-76-70. Best at today's distance 80. 1-for-9 at the distance. 5-for-21 at Parx Racing. A. Velazquez / E. Ruiz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Bright Kohana ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ↕ Up and down 58–81 ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81

Jockey D. Haddock · Trainer M. Rodriguez · KEE 27: 8-7-3 · Dist 12: 4-1-2 · best fig at 6½f dirt 64 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2yc	Won/7	81	0.4-1	L	Wdnd throughout drive
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n1yc	Won/10	79	2.0-1	L	Brief duel; drew off
9/1	PRX	5½f D	Clm 5k n1y	2nd/8 by hd	75	1.9-1	L	Race-long duel; gamely

Case: Last out won in the fClm5000n2yc at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 81-79-75. Best at today's distance 64. 4-for-12 at the distance. 8-for-27 at Parx Racing. M. Rodriguez / D. Haddock.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Society Ball ML 4-1 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 Last out won in the fClm5000n2y at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 75-73-59. Best at today's distance 55. 0-for-2 at the distance. 3-for-10 at Parx Racing. M. Moore / M. Sanchez. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer M. Moore · KEE 10: 3-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6½f dirt 55 · 32 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	Won/9 by 1	75	6.0-1	b L	Rail to lane; surged
8/24	PRX	7f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/8	73	1.8-1	b L	Vied outside;edged off
7/16	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	6th/8 -12L	59	2.8-1	b L	Chased wide; empty

★ Distance horse: #6 Tara's Talent (7-2) has the best figure in the field at 6½f dirt: 81 from 3 tries, record at the distance 15: 2-4-5. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #6 · B #2, #3, #4

Angles: #1 Last fig 81 at/above par 81 · #2 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #3 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81

R3 Parx Racing · Claiming $7,500

1:34 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $20,000 · 3 runners (3 out)1:34 PM · 6½f Dirt · 3 runners (3 out)

Official $20K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Tara's Talent (7-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 81 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1Bright Kohana▲D. Haddock · M. RodriguezHaddock · RodriguezA81 79 75▲▲+10↕@trip 643-121%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best81 79 75 ↕@trip 64A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–81 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 79 75

▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81

Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 8-for-75 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Miguel A Rodriguez 33% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Lucky Lu Lu 3-1, R5: Alyvia's Lil Girl 12-1, R7: Cajun Reward 5-1

WON LAST4/8 board here

Winner of a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at PRX last time. Miguel A Rodriguez takes over the training from Michael V Pino.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Wdnd throughout drive), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 25d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 1 here: 33 wins, 109 top-3 in 244 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2yc	Won/7	81	0.4-1	L	Wdnd throughout drive
9/15	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n1yc	Won/10	79	2.0-1	L	Brief duel; drew off
9/1	PRX	5½f D	Clm 5k n1y	2nd/8 by hd	75	1.9-1	L	Race-long duel; gamely

2Shudabeenacowgirl▼Ran 3rdA. Castillo · T. GallimoreCastillo · GallimoreB56 66 66▼▼-9@trip 7012-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -956 66 66@trip 70B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 66 66

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey A Castillo 30% career 5-for-49 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Trevor Gallimore 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Grande Felino 20-1, R4: Accelerated Dating 4-1, R5: Uptown Art 6-1, R8: Tiz Purple 3-1 · Trainer R1: Grande Felino 20-1, R5: Alyvia's Lil Girl 12-1

9/16 board here

A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par. Turns back in 9 days.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 317d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 9 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD A Castillo from post 2 here: 11 wins, 42 top-3 in 99 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	PEN	6f D	OC 8k	6th/6 -1½L	56	39-1	b L	Made early lead; tired
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/7 -5L	66	10-1	b L	Pursued winner; empty
9/29	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	3rd/9 by hd	66	22-1	b L	Rail trip; weakened

3Fast Motion▼B. Torres · J. NicholsonTorres · NicholsonB67 70 68►≡@trip 676-1<1%► Steady67 70 68 ≡@trip 67B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–70 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 70 68

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Bryan L Torres 32% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Junior W Nicholson 23% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Associated 7-2 · Trainer R2: Seven Belle 20-1

6/11 board here

0 for 7 at today's distance. Carries 122 pounds, 7 more than last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Mar 21; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Bryan L Torres from post 3 here: 7 wins, 28 top-3 in 56 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n1y	7th/7 -7L	67	25-1	b L	Very wide into stretch
9/7	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	Won/6	70	3.0-1	b L	Angled out; led; last
8/21	DEL	6f D	Clm 6k n1y	4th/7 -2¾L	68	2.8-1	b L	Reluctant load;5w turn

4Society BallM. Sanchez · M. MooreSanchez · MooreB75 73 59▲+7@trip 554-120%▲ Up +775 73 59@trip 55B

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 73 59

Jockey Magglio Sanchez 37% career 25-for-128 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Michael M Moore 33% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Northlondonforever 7-2, R8: Dancing On My Own 5-2

WON LAST

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 59 to 73 to 75.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Magglio Sanchez from post 4 here: 71 wins, 166 top-3 in 279 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	Won/9 by 1	75	6.0-1	b L	Rail to lane; surged
8/24	PRX	7f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/8	73	1.8-1	b L	Vied outside;edged off
7/16	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	6th/8 -12L	59	2.8-1	b L	Chased wide; empty

5Popover GalRan 1stE. Ruiz · A. VelazquezRuiz · VelazquezA78 76 70▲+3≡@trip 805-2Fair 9-536%▲ Up +378 76 70 ≡@trip 80A1

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 70–78 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 76 70

Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 6-for-65 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Alfredo Velazquez 29% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Valley Forge P A 8-1, R8: I Can Run 4-1

9/15 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 81 next best. Figures are climbing: 70, 76, 78 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 84d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 9 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 5 here: 22 wins, 94 top-3 in 180 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n1y	2nd/7 -2½L	78	1.4-1	b L	Brief fade; came again
9/1	PRX	6½f D	Clm 7k n1y	3rd/7 -2L	76	2.7-1	b L	Rail trip; willingly
7/22	PRX	7f D	Clm 7k n1y	3rd/7 -4½L	70	1.0-1	b L	Forced pace; empty

6Tara's Talent★Ran 2ndA. Adorno · M. SimoneAdorno · SimoneA72 73 78▼-3≡@trip 817-2Fair 4-119%▼ Down -372 73 78 ≡@trip 81A★ Best at the trip 81

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–78 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 73 78

★ Best at the trip 81

Jockey Abner Adorno 32% career 5-for-55 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Michael V Simone 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Filled With Desire 9-2, R5: Natures Fury 4-1, R6: Flamenca 5-1, R7: Aussie's Heir 6-1 · Trainer R9: Miss Interpatation 6-1

6/9 board here

Changes barns, from Michael M Moore to Michael V Simone. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Abner Adorno from post 6 here: 27 wins, 79 top-3 in 176 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	6f D	Clm 5k n2yc	2nd/7 -4L	72	2.6-1	L	Angled wide; rallied
8/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k c	3rd/8 -9L	73	14-1	L	Inside; closed well
7/22	PRX	7f D	Clm 7k n1yc	Won/7 by 1	78	2.0-1	L	Awaited room; rallied

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Popover Gal, won.

1st5Popover GalWin$5.00Place$2.60Show$2.20Our #1

2nd6Tara`s TalentWin—Place$4.40Show$3.00Our #4

3rd2ShudabeenacowgirlWin—Place—Show$5.80Our #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$20,000

Post

1:34 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 36%

Claiming $7,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.39

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Popover Gal (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 78 · 76 · 70. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Bright Kohana at 3-1. Use #4 Society Ball in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Popover Gal won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, —, —

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 POPOVER GAL	1st
#2	#1 BRIGHT KOHANA	—
#3	#4 SOCIETY BALL	—
#4	#6 TARA'S TALENT	2nd
#5	#2 SHUDABEENACOWGIRL	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#5 Popover Gal	our #1
2nd	#6 Tara`s Talent	our #4
3rd	#2 Shudabeenacowgirl	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 POPOVER GAL (5-2) — our number agrees.
#5 POPOVER GAL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 28.1%, they've got 24.3%.
#1 BRIGHT KOHANA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.5% to their 21.2%).
#6 TARA'S TALENT — our #4 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.8%, they've got 18.9%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 POPOVER GAL — we make it 28.1%, the morning line works out to 24.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 TARA'S TALENT — we make it 21.8%, the morning line works out to 18.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 SOCIETY BALL — we make it 20.4%, the morning line works out to 17.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Bright Kohana; pressure from #5 Popover Gal, #2 Shudabeenacowgirl; the shape helps #2 Shudabeenacowgirl, #3 Fast Motion, #4 Society Ball; and works against #1 Bright Kohana, #5 Popover Gal.

Lead

1Bright Kohana945Popover Gal90

Press

2Shudabeenacowgirl974Society Ball80

Stalk

3Fast Motion84

6Tara's Talent86

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Shudabeenacowgirl

Bright Kohana

Popover Gal

Fast Motion

Society Ball

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tara's Talent

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