REMINGTON PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $30,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$28,000

Post

9:22 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#5 · 24%

Claiming $30,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 54.87

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Girldontgoawaymad (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 68 · 75 · 76. Backup is #4 Storm After Dark at 5-1. Use #3 Rumpus In Paradise in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Girldontgoawaymad

Jockey Lane J Luzzi 27% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Tristan Ashford 34% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Perfectly Harvey 15-1, R3: Sneak Peek'n 6-1, R7: Gunflash 10-1 · Trainer R7: Gunflash 10-1

2/4 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 76 to 75 to 68. 2nd of 43 at 4F on Aug 26, in :49.00.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (2w; shuffled 1/8 pole), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L5-2

Model24%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last4th · 19d

22ND

4Storm After Dark

Jockey Mario Fuentes 30% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jesse Sauceda 21% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: City Of Clouds 5-2, R6: Star Statis 20-1, R9: Pushrod 20-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 80, with 76 next best. A longer trip: -5 furlongs last out, 5 furlongs today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 28 (4F in :50.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Mario Fuentes from post 4 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 26 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last7th · 19d

33RD

3Rumpus In Paradise

Jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles · Trainer Ruben Fuentes 30% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Yellow Brick 6-1, R8: Lady Beau 8-1, R9: Celestial Law 6-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at CBY at 1.6-1. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going a mile.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5w; flop leads; driving), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 66 days ago

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

M/L8-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 52d

44TH

6Minuetta

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career ★ 6-for-26 on turf this meet (23%) · Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Big Muckity 9-2, R6: She's Our Lioness 8-1, R7: Brotha Keny 5-1, R8: Competitive Threat 5-1 +1 more

A longer trip: -7½ furlongs last out, 5 furlongs today. A 70 top number against a 75 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 28d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 6 here: 12 wins, 28 top-3 in 50 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last5th · 19d

55TH

7Telekinetic

Jockey S Elliott 35% career 0-for-32 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Mindy Willis 35% career 0-for-22 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cocked Pistol 8-1, R3: Belladore 4-1, R7: Twenty One Skidoo 12-1, R8: Queen Wilhelmina 8-1 +1 more

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Returns from a 417-day break, the biggest in the field. New trainer: Allen Dupuy had it last time, Mindy Willis now.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Sep 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD S Elliott from post 7 here: 24 wins, 58 top-3 in 128 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

M/L6-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last9th · 417d

1Luck Is A Lady

Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Boyd Caster 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Yaqin 3-1, R4: Da Chief 6-1, R7: Bearings 20-1, R9: Apollo Creed 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Was running in allowance; today's $30,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Stretches out from -5 furlongs to 5 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 2; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L3-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 18d

2Eagle Vision

Jockey I V Diego 29% career 1-for-15 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Allen Dupuy 19% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Blow Torch 8-1, R6: Highway Seven 10-1, R9: Oklahoma Kid 8-1 · Trainer R6: Zapper M 20-1

CLASS DROP

6th last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 12. Moves up from $20,000 claiming to $30,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD I V Diego from post 2 here: 16 wins, 42 top-3 in 106 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last6th · 11d

8Demotion

Jockey L S Quinonez 31% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Karen E Jacks 26% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Matter Of Opinion 15-1

CLASS UP

Dropped in well back early last out, 12th of 12 at the first call. Raises its level, $20,000 claiming last time and $30,000 claiming now.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 28d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD L S Quinonez from post 8 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 44 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last8th · 11d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 GIRLDONTGOAWAYMAD (5-2) — our number agrees.
#5 GIRLDONTGOAWAYMAD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.3%).
#1 LUCK IS A LADY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 19.5%).
#6 MINUETTA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Eagle Vision; pressure from #8 Demotion, #5 Girldontgoawaymad; the shape helps #1 Luck Is A Lady, #3 Rumpus In Paradise, #4 Storm After Dark; and works against #2 Eagle Vision, #8 Demotion.

Lead

2Eagle Vision868Demotion71

Press

5Girldontgoawaymad876Minuetta853Rumpus In Paradise844Storm After Dark84

Stalk

1Luck Is A Lady86

7Telekinetic76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Girldontgoawaymad

Luck Is A Lady

Eagle Vision

Minuetta

Rumpus In Paradise

Storm After Dark

Demotion

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Telekinetic

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