REMINGTON PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Allowance · $39,000 purse

Field

10 runners

Purse

$39,000

Post

10:46 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#5 · 22%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 95.2

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Fine Finish (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 83 · 83 · 76. Backup is #7 Midway Vow at 4-1. Use #10 Tikihut in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Fine Finish

Jockey Jose L Alvarez 34% career 2-for-23 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career 2-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sixhoofsevenhoof 9-2, R3: Make Him Wait 5-1, R4: Night Passage 8-1, R6: Freebie West 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R9: Celestial Law 6-1

LASIX 1ST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 90, with 83 next best. Runs for $39,000 today after a $75,000 race last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD Jose L Alvarez from post 5 here: 16 wins, 50 top-3 in 106 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model22%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last5th · 31d

22ND

7Midway Vow

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 3-for-17 on turf this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Botox And Coffee 3-1, R4: Slades Tank 3-1 · Trainer R3: Botox And Coffee 3-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse $20,000 claiming race at RP. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 2 (:48.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 77d ago

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 7 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 48 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 19d

33RD

10Tikihut

Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Michael E Biehler 33% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Vietnam Victory 7-2, R2: Clay's Hatchett 12-1, R3: Connie'scalculator 9-2, R7: Moneyline 15-1

Moves up from optional claiming to allowance. A 48-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 11d ago

M/L12-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 48d

44TH

2Sueno Magico

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 0-for-22 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Miguel Silva 34% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Little Sallywalker 15-1, R7: City Of Angels 7-2, R9: Get In Dare 10-1 · Trainer R1: City Of Clouds 5-2, R4: Slades Tank 3-1

2/3 board here

Stretches out from -7½ furlongs to a mile. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 10-horse allowance race at RP.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Rallied; 5w; bid; empty last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 2 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 70 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 20d

55TH

4Queen Wilhelmina

Jockey S Elliott 35% career 0-for-32 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer John L Hall 30% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cocked Pistol 8-1, R3: Belladore 4-1, R5: Telekinetic 6-1, R7: Twenty One Skidoo 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Brego 15-1

Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call. A longer trip: -8 furlongs last out, a mile today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Rallied; 5w; 2nd best), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 73d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD S Elliott from post 4 here: 26 wins, 65 top-3 in 130 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 18d

6Donita

Jockey Richard E Eramia 30% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Arco Thunder 5-1, R4: Papa Bill 10-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Steve F Williams takes over the training from Miguel Silva. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 19d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Richard E Eramia from post 6 here: 12 wins, 32 top-3 in 84 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last1st · 14d

1Lady Beau

Jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles · Trainer C R Trout 28% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Rumpus In Paradise 8-1, R7: Yellow Brick 6-1, R9: Celestial Law 6-1 · Trainer R7: Yellow Brick 6-1

4/7 board here

Finished 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at RP, beaten 1¼ lengths. Goes a mile after running -7½ furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shuffled; 6w late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 50 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 20d

8Competitive Threat

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career ★ 6-for-26 on turf this meet (23%) · Trainer Robertino Diodoro 39% career 5-for-13 on turf this meet (38%), #1 of 16 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Big Muckity 9-2, R5: Minuetta 4-1, R6: She's Our Lioness 8-1, R7: Brotha Keny 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Rifled 10-1

Figures have slipped: 76, 70, 68 over its last three. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled; no menace), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 32d back)

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 8 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 30 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

M/L5-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last7th · 20d

3Cactus Blossom

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey ★ 7-for-28 on turf this meet (25%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Francisco Bravo 32% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Bozzetto 10-1, R4: Guapo 5-2, R6: Lucked Out 8-5, R7: Ze'bul 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Highway Seven 10-1

A step up in company: $20,000 claiming before, allowance today. A 77 top number against a 80 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L12-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 41d

9Mi Diamante

Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 9-for-36 on turf this meet (25%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 8-for-39 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cawkab 3-1, R2: The Standard 5-2, R3: Slighted 2-1, R7: Brigadier General 4-1 · Trainer R1: Cawkab 3-1, R2: Cocked Pistol 8-1, R2: The Standard 5-2, R3: Belladore 4-1 +3 more

Jockey switch: Weston Hamilton last out, Erik Asmussen today. A longer trip: -7½ furlongs last out, a mile today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Block 1/4; rough trip), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 30d ago

RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 9 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 20 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 20d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 FINE FINISH (7-2) — our number agrees.
#5 FINE FINISH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.3%).
#7 MIDWAY VOW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.5% to their 15.6%).
#8 COMPETITIVE THREAT — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Donita; pressure from #5 Fine Finish, #1 Lady Beau; the shape helps #1 Lady Beau, #3 Cactus Blossom, #4 Queen Wilhelmina; and works against #6 Donita.

Lead

6Donita87

Press

5Fine Finish841Lady Beau817Midway Vow813Cactus Blossom75

Stalk

9Mi Diamante864Queen Wilhelmina818Competitive Threat7810Tikihut63

2Sueno Magico74

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Donita

Mi Diamante

Fine Finish

Lady Beau

Queen Wilhelmina

Midway Vow

Competitive Threat

Cactus Blossom

Tikihut

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sueno Magico

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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