REMINGTON PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

11 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

9:50 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#2 · 18%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 5-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Aroa (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 67 · 63 · 48. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Lucked Out at 8-5. Use #1 Star Statis in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

2Aroa

Jockey Leandro R Goncalves 35% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Juliana Blandi Goncalves 14% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

3/4 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 67, with 57 next best. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5½ furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Leandro R Goncalves from post 2 here: 8 wins, 22 top-3 in 59 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 33d

22ND

6Lucked Out

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Dick Cappellucci 40% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Bozzetto 10-1, R4: Guapo 5-2, R7: Ze'bul 8-1, R8: Cactus Blossom 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Bozzetto 10-1, R7: Ze'bul 8-1, R7: Twenty One Skidoo 12-1, R9: Duval 3-1

Figures have slipped: 67, 62, 52 over its last three. Still looking for the first win after 6 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.60 on Aug 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L8-5

Model27%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last5th · 47d

33RD

1Star Statis

Jockey Mario Fuentes 30% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Frederico Villafranco 27% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: City Of Clouds 5-2, R5: Storm After Dark 5-1, R9: Pushrod 20-1

Class relief: maiden claiming $30,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. A 51 is the high figure lately, short of the 70 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 33d back)

RECORD Mario Fuentes from post 1 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 20 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last7th · 25d

44TH

7Da Ima Passn Thru

Jockey Luis A Huaman 14% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Trainer R4: Night Passage 8-1, this race: Little Sallywalker 15-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

New trainer: Marti Rodriguez had it last time, Mark W Buehrer now. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

M/L20-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last11th · 47d

55TH

10Freebie West

Jockey Jose L Alvarez 34% career 6-for-42 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Joe S Offolter 34% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sixhoofsevenhoof 9-2, R3: Make Him Wait 5-1, R4: Night Passage 8-1, R7: Indy Road 10-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Papa Bill 10-1, R4: Mi Saturday 4-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Freshened 198 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Last out was 5th, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 11d back

RECORD Jose L Alvarez from post 10 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 23 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

M/L5-2

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 198d

5Please Turn Left

Jockey B L Jr Goff · Trainer David E Brown 37% career

No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 10. Debut for this Den's Legacy filly, whose dam is Liquor Sunrise.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 18d back)

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

11Zapper M

Jockey Javier Padron-Barcenas 21% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Allen Dupuy 19% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cape Trafalgar 10-1 · Trainer R5: Eagle Vision 20-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 53 to 42 to 38. Beaten 10 lengths for 10th in a 12-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at RP.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last10th · 25d

3Get My Shoes

Jockey Lindsey Hebert 32% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Michael C Gunter 14% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

First career start, by Den's Legacy out of Seek N Excess. The Oct 16 work, 4F in :48.40, was the fastest at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 16; 2 works in 30d

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

9Highway Seven

Jockey I V Diego 29% career 5-for-45 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Francisco Bravo 32% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Blow Torch 8-1, R5: Eagle Vision 20-1, R9: Oklahoma Kid 8-1 · Trainer R8: Cactus Blossom 12-1

A 53-day gap since its last race. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 11d ago

RECORD I V Diego from post 9 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 51 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 53d

8She's Our Lioness

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 11-for-62 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Patrick E Swan 27% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Big Muckity 9-2, R5: Minuetta 4-1, R7: Brotha Keny 5-1, R8: Competitive Threat 5-1 +1 more

Was running in maiden claiming $30,000; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 41 against a 70 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 9d ago)

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 8 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 30 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 25d

4Little Sallywalker

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 6-for-60 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R7: City Of Angels 7-2, R8: Sueno Magico 6-1, R9: Get In Dare 10-1 · Trainer R4: Night Passage 8-1, this race: Da Ima Passn Thru 20-1

11th last time, 14 lengths back, in a field of 12. Drops from maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $10,000.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 4 here: 7 wins, 26 top-3 in 68 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last11th · 25d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 LUCKED OUT (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#6 LUCKED OUT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.7% to their 30.0%).
#10 FREEBIE WEST — our #5 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.3%).
#2 AROA — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 12.0%, the board 8.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 AROA (8-1) — our fair 12.0% is above the morning line's 8.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Lucked Out; pressure from #7 Da Ima Passn Thru; the shape helps #2 Aroa, #10 Freebie West; and works against #1 Star Statis, #3 Get My Shoes, #4 Little Sallywalker.

Lead

6Lucked Out847Da Ima Passn Thru73

Press

none

Stalk

2Aroa8710Freebie West79

none

No style yet

1Star Statis898She's Our Lioness834Little Sallywalker8211Zapper M789Highway Seven713Get My Shoes5Please Turn Left

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Aroa

Lucked Out

Freebie West

Da Ima Passn Thru

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Star Statis

Little Sallywalker

She's Our Lioness

Zapper M

Aroa

Lucked Out

Da Ima Passn Thru

Highway Seven

Freebie West

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