Pick sheet

Race 810:46 PM Alw 40000n3l

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Lanaluah, is 40% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Lanaluah ML 2-1 Fair 3-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +13 ▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79

Jockey R. Vazquez · Trainer A. Gustafson · KEE 4: 1-3-0 · Dist 3: 0-2-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 79 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	3rd/8 -3L	79	23-1	L	2w; taken up sharply
9/25	RP	7½f T	fsAlw40000n3l	9th/10 -2L	63	3.0-1	L	Chased inside;gave way
3/21	HOU	1 1/16 D	frTxTbAnOksB109k	4th/7 -3L	61	6.7-1	L	4w;kept to task;flatnd

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsOkClDfSpH130k at RP. Last Brisnet figures 79-63-61. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Remington Park. A. Gustafson / R. Vazquez.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Contender #5 Den's Dazzler ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best

Jockey F. Wethey Jr. · Trainer M. Buehrer · KEE 5: 2-1-1 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 67 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	5½f D	fsClm30000n2l	Won/8	77	2.3-1	L	Prsd pc;2p;drew off
9/12	RP	5½f D	fsAlw39000n2l	2nd/8	75	3.5-1	L	Set pace; held place
8/28	RP	7f D	frOkStlnFilH50k	4th/5 -11L	57	17-1	L	Inside turn; no threat

Case: Last out won in the fsClm30000n2l at RP. Last Brisnet figures 77-75-57. Best at today's distance 67. 1-for-1 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Remington Park. M. Buehrer / F. Wethey Jr..

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #6 Bridie's Legacy ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79 Last out won in the fsClm30000n2l at RP. Last Brisnet figures 70-73-70. Best at today's distance 70. 1-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Remington Park. M. Biehler / W. Hamilton. Knock: Off 70 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey W. Hamilton · Trainer M. Biehler · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 70 · 70 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	RP	5½f D	fsClm30000n2l	Won/8 by 2½	70	4.0-1	L	Trail ins;swng 7w;clsd
7/25	CBY	5½f D	Alw b	3rd/7 -2½L	73	7.6-1	L	Midpack;4p;late gain
5/31	CBY	6f D	MCL 20k	Won/5 by hd	70	3.5-1	L	Chase;3p;edge clr

Longshot #7 Forbidden Lover ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 54–77

Jockey E. Valdez-Jiminez · Trainer S. Corderman · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 57 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	1 1/16 D	fsOkClDstfH145k	5th/6 -8L	74	35-1	b L	Settled; 2w; faltered
9/12	RP	5½f D	fsAlw39000n2l	Won/8 by hd	77	8.3-1	b L	4w; jump shadow; best
7/19	PRM	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	7th/7 -9L	54	14-1	b LB	Brief bid; faded

Case: Last out 5th/6 -8L in the fsOkClDstfH145k at RP. Last Brisnet figures 74-77-54. Best at today's distance 57. 0-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Remington Park. S. Corderman / E. Valdez-Jiminez.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

★ Distance horse: #4 Surely Swift (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 81 from 2 tries, record at the distance 2: 1-0-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #6 · B #2, #4, #7 · C #3

Angles: #1 Last fig 79 at/above par 79 · #3 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

R8 Remington Park · State-Bred Allowance · $40,000 purse

10:46 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $40,000 · 7 runners10:46 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $40K · State-Bred Allowance · $40,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Surely Swift (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 81 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Lanaluah▲R. Vazquez · A. GustafsonVazquez · GustafsonA79 63 61▲▲+13@trip 792-1Fair 3-240%▲▲ Big jump +1379 63 61@trip 79A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 791

Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 63 61

▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 14-for-74 on dirt this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer Austin Gustafson 34% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Saltwater Taffy 5-2, R5: Outtaherway 7-2, R7: Electrifying Lady 5-1, R9: Prince Lancelot 8-1 · Trainer R1: Saltwater Taffy 5-2, R5: Outtaherway 7-2

4/5 board here

Purse drops from $130,000 to $40,000 against its last start. Has moved up each time out, 61 to 63 to 79.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (2w; taken up sharply), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 22d back

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 1 here: 18 wins, 31 top-3 in 52 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	3rd/8 -3L	79	23-1	L	2w; taken up sharply
9/25	RP	7½f T	fsAlw40000n3l	9th/10 -2L	63	3.0-1	L	Chased inside;gave way
3/21	HOU	1 1/16 D	frTxTbAnOksB109k	4th/7 -3L	61	6.7-1	L	4w;kept to task;flatnd

2Flat Out KelceR. Huckaby · T. MurphyHuckaby · MurphyB66 85 71▼▼-11@trip 665-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1166 85 71@trip 66B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 85 71

Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 2-for-48 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Travis Swan Murphy 31% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Bring It 5-2, R3: Spirit's Mischief 10-1, R4: Sugar Tea 15-1, R6: La Tentatrice 10-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK6/8 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Beaten 10 lengths for 6th in an 8-horse race at RP.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 73d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	6th/8 -10L	66	12-1	L	Rallied; 4w; no menace
10/3	RP	7f D	fsAlw39000n1x	Won/8	85	1.1-1	L	Bid3/8;4p;drew off
9/11	RP	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/11	71	0.7-1	L	Rallied; 3w; driving

3Chitoz's Blur▼T. Bacon · L. ChleboradBacon · ChleboradC62 63 66▼-3≡@trip 6612-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -362 63 66 ≡@trip 66C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 62–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 63 66

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 10-for-62 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Lynn Chleborad 27% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Saw Dog 5-1, R3: Final Storm 9-2, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R7: Always Spiteful 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Sugar Tea 15-1

0/4 board here

Back to 6 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race. Last out was 5th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse allowance race at RP.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	7f D	fsAlw39000n1x	5th/8 -8L	62	13-1	b L	Svd gnd;no kick
8/27	RP	6f D	fsAlw39000n1x	4th/6 -2¾L	63	1.9-1	b L	5w; bid; flattened out
7/18	PRM	6f D	Alw s	4th/7 -2½L	66	25-1	b LB	Savd grnd;gain positin

4Surely Swift▲★L. Goncalves · F. BravoGoncalves · BravoB71 65 81▼-4@trip 818-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -471 65 81@trip 81B▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 81

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 65 81

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 81

Jockey Leandro R Goncalves 35% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Francisco Bravo 32% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Smart Okie 20-1, R6: Aroa 5-2

★ FASTEST WORKJky 9/55 from post 4

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Cuts back from 7½ furlongs to 6 furlongs.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD Leandro R Goncalves from post 4 here: 9 wins, 19 top-3 in 55 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	7½f T	fsAlw40000n3l	6th/10	71	3.1-1	L	Set pace; weakened;
5/9	LS	6½f D	Alw n1x	5th/7 -1L	65	3.9-1	L	Brk well;duel;wknd str
4/6	WRD	6f D	fsAlw26000n2l	Won/7	81	0.1-1	L	Vied ins; convincingly

5Den's DazzlerF. Wethey Jr. · M. BuehrerWethey Jr. · BuehrerA77 75 57▲▲+11@trip 673-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best77 75 57@trip 67A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 57

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey 11-for-78 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Now We Go 15-1, R3: Mighty Message 8-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Annie One Sock 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R1: Giveitaspin 15-1, R9: Twentyone N Change 3-1

WON LAST4/5 board here

Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse $30,000 claiming race at RP. Figures are climbing: 57, 75, 77 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Prsd pc; 2p; drew off.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	5½f D	fsClm30000n2l	Won/8	77	2.3-1	L	Prsd pc;2p;drew off
9/12	RP	5½f D	fsAlw39000n2l	2nd/8	75	3.5-1	L	Set pace; held place
8/28	RP	7f D	frOkStlnFilH50k	4th/5 -11L	57	17-1	L	Inside turn; no threat

6Bridie's Legacy▼W. Hamilton · M. BiehlerHamilton · BiehlerA70 73 70▲+3@trip 707-2Fair 6-114%▲ Up +370 73 70@trip 70A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 793

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 73 70

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 4-for-64 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael E Biehler 33% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Ranch Man 4-1, R4: Clocked 8-1, R9: West Of Town 15-1 · Trainer R2: Ranch Man 4-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Weston Hamilton takes over from David Cabrera in the saddle. Raises its level, $30,000 claiming last time and allowance now.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Trail ins; swng 7w; clsd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD Weston Hamilton from post 6 here: 1 win, 6 top-3 in 26 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	RP	5½f D	fsClm30000n2l	Won/8 by 2½	70	4.0-1	L	Trail ins;swng 7w;clsd
7/25	CBY	5½f D	Alw b	3rd/7 -2½L	73	7.6-1	L	Midpack;4p;late gain
5/31	CBY	6f D	MCL 20k	Won/5 by hd	70	3.5-1	L	Chase;3p;edge clr

7Forbidden LoverLSE. Valdez-Jiminez · S. CordermanValdez-Jiminez · CordermanB74 77 54▲▲+9↕@trip 578-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +974 77 54 ↕@trip 57BLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–77 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 77 54

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 6-for-61 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Scott Corderman 29% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Bling It To Me 6-1, R3: Iowa Club 5-1, R7: Wauneka 8-1, R9: Sawasdee 6-1

Purse drops from $145,000 to $40,000 against its last start. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Settled; 2w; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 58 days ago

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 7 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 48 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	1 1/16 D	fsOkClDstfH145k	5th/6 -8L	74	35-1	b L	Settled; 2w; faltered
9/12	RP	5½f D	fsAlw39000n2l	Won/8 by hd	77	8.3-1	b L	4w; jump shadow; best
7/19	PRM	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	7th/7 -9L	54	14-1	b LB	Brief bid; faded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $40,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$40,000

Post

10:46 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 40%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Lanaluah (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 79 · 63 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Den's Dazzler at 3-1. Use #6 Bridie's Legacy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 LANALUAH (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 LANALUAH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.4% to their 26.2%).
#5 DEN'S DAZZLER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.7%).
#6 BRIDIE'S LEGACY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 17.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Surely Swift; pressure from #5 Den's Dazzler, #3 Chitoz's Blur; the shape helps #1 Lanaluah, #2 Flat Out Kelce, #3 Chitoz's Blur; and works against #4 Surely Swift, #5 Den's Dazzler.

Lead

4Surely Swift985Den's Dazzler89

Press

3Chitoz's Blur921Lanaluah912Flat Out Kelce877Forbidden Lover77

Stalk

6Bridie's Legacy67

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Surely Swift

Chitoz's Blur

Lanaluah

Den's Dazzler

Flat Out Kelce

Forbidden Lover

Bridie's Legacy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bridie's Legacy

Chitoz's Blur

Lanaluah

Flat Out Kelce

Surely Swift

Den's Dazzler

Forbidden Lover

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

WPS / EXACTA / TRIFECTA (.50 CENT MINIMUM) / SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM)

LATE DAILY DOUBLE

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.