Pick sheet

Race 710:18 PM Alw 44000nc

5F · Turf · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Imaluckycharm, is 26% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Imaluckycharm ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey S. Elliott · Trainer K. Jacks · KEE 6: 2-0-1 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 5f turf 85 · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	RP	-5f T	Alw nc	4th/7 -1L	79	2.1-1	b L	Bid btwn; not enough
7/11	LS	1m T	fsFiestaMleB82k	8th/9 -6L	67	3.8-1	b L	Asked;prompt;stopped
6/13	LS	7½f T	fsStSchlshpB84k	5th/11 -5½L	79	1.3-1	b L	Drifted in; empty

Case: Last out 4th/7 -1L in the fAlw44000nc at RP. Last Brisnet figures 79-67-79. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-2 at the distance. 2-for-6 at Remington Park. K. Jacks / S. Elliott.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #3 Banterra ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -8 ★ Best at 5f turf: 86

Jockey E. Asmussen · Trainer S. Asmussen · KEE 3: 1-0-0 · Dist 7: 1-1-2 · best fig at 5f turf 86 · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	RP	-5f T	Alw nc	6th/7 -2¾L	72	4.7-1	L	5wd 1/4; shut off 1/8
6/27	LS	5f T	ChknFriedB125k	4th/10 -1½L	80	7.6-1	L	Traffic 3/8;1/8;rally
2/7	HOU	5f T	OC 30k n1y	3rd/8 -1L	86	1.5-1	L	Good finish; clear 3rd

Case: Last out 6th/7 -2¾L in the fAlw44000nc at RP. Last Brisnet figures 72-80-86. Best at today's distance 86. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Remington Park. S. Asmussen / E. Asmussen.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Thunders Rocknroll ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 83–86 ▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 83 Last out won in the fRHP 46-86 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 86-83-85. 3-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Remington Park. P. Swan / R. Huckaby. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey R. Huckaby · Trainer P. Swan · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 4: 3-1-0 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	PRM	6f D	RHP 46-86	Won/4	86	2.9-1	b LB	Duel;inside;gamely
9/5	CBY	6f D	fsMinDsfSpr55k	2nd/5 by hd	83	0.3-1	b	Ins;led;vie;not enuf
8/15	CBY	7f D	fsAlw35000nc	Won/5	85	0.1-1	b L	Led3/8;clr 3/16;rolled

Longshot #1 Always Spiteful ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -9

Jockey T. Bacon · Trainer G. Jacquot · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	PRM	6f D	RHP 46-86	3rd/4 -½L	77	1.5-1	LB	Duel 2wd;empty late
8/23	PRM	6f D	RHP 58-88	Won/5	85	0.2-1	LB	Vied;clear 3/16p;firm
7/26	PRM	6f D	Alw b	3rd/6 -2½L	82	1.0-1	LB	Track pc;ask 2-3w;wknd

Case: Last out 3rd in the fRHP 46-86 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 77-85-82. G. Jacquot / T. Bacon.

Knock: Never raced at Remington Park.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #6, #7 · B #1, #3, #4 · C #2

Angles: #4 Last fig 85 at/above par 83 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Last fig 86 at/above par 83 · #7 Last fig 83 at/above par 83

R7 Remington Park · Allowance · $44,000 purse

10:18 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $44,000 · 7 runners10:18 PM · 5f Turf · 7 runners

Upcoming $44K · Allowance · $44,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Always SpitefulLST. Bacon · G. JacquotBacon · JacquotB77 85 82▼▼-98-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -977 85 82BLS

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 77 85 82

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Gene Jacquot 26% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Saw Dog 5-1, R3: Final Storm 9-2, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R8: Chitoz's Blur 12-1 +1 more

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Tops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 89 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 43d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	PRM	6f D	RHP 46-86	3rd/4 -½L	77	1.5-1	LB	Duel 2wd;empty late
8/23	PRM	6f D	RHP 58-88	Won/5	85	0.2-1	LB	Vied;clear 3/16p;firm
7/26	PRM	6f D	Alw b	3rd/6 -2½L	82	1.0-1	LB	Track pc;ask 2-3w;wknd

2Bank on DaisyI. Diego · S. DunlapDiego · DunlapC80 76 78▲▲+13↕@trip 666-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1380 76 78 ↕@trip 66C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–80 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 78

Jockey I V Diego 29% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Shon M Dunlap 26% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Marquee Lady 10-1, R4: Charlotte Joy 10-1

3/6 board here

Cuts back from 6½ furlongs to 5 furlongs. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD I V Diego from post 2 here: 16 wins, 42 top-3 in 106 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	6½f D	Alw b	4th/7 -4L	80	5.5-1	b L	Veer brk;3p;kept on
9/10	RP	1m D	Alw n3l	Won/5	76	4.4-1	b L	Pace inside; driving
7/5	LS	5½f D	Alw n3l	4th/7 -1½L	78	15-1	b L	Vied;bk1/2;cls;willing

3Banterra★E. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB72 80 86▼▼-8@trip 867-2Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -872 80 86@trip 86B★ Best at the trip 862

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 80 86

★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 10-for-42 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-46 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R9: Bad Beat Brian 5-2 · Trainer R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, this race: Electrifying Lady 5-1 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Figures have slipped: 86, 80, 72 over its last three. Finished 6th in a 7-horse allowance race at RP, beaten 2¾ lengths.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5wd 1/4; shut off 1/8), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 15d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 3 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 24 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	RP	-5f T	Alw nc	6th/7 -2¾L	72	4.7-1	L	5wd 1/4; shut off 1/8
6/27	LS	5f T	ChknFriedB125k	4th/10 -1½L	80	7.6-1	L	Traffic 3/8;1/8;rally
2/7	HOU	5f T	OC 30k n1y	3rd/8 -1L	86	1.5-1	L	Good finish; clear 3rd

4Wauneka▲▲E. Valdez-Jiminez · R. CravensValdez-Jiminez · CravensB85 85 78▲+5@trip 858-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +5 · career best85 85 78@trip 85B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 85 78

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Bling It To Me 6-1, R3: Iowa Club 5-1, R8: Forbidden Lover 8-1, R9: Sawasdee 6-1 · Trainer R1: Bling It To Me 6-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Back after 238 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Mindy Willis to Ronnie Iii Cravens.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Feb 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 4 here: 3 wins, 15 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/7	HOU	5f T	Alw n1x	Won/9	85	1.3-1	L	Cmd7/16;hld clr late
4/5	HOU	5f T	fsAlw41500n1x	Won/9	85	0.6-1	L	Bid1/4;led1/8;won clr
1/25	HOU	6f D	fsBaraLass75k	4th/8 -4½L	78	9.3-1	L	Chsd 4-3w;no rally

5Thunders Rocknroll▲R. Huckaby · P. SwanHuckaby · SwanA86 83 85►≡3-1Fair 5-116%► Steady86 83 85 ≡A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 833

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–86 · Last 3 figs 86 83 85

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 83

Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Patrick E Swan 27% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Bring It 5-2, R3: Spirit's Mischief 10-1, R4: Sugar Tea 15-1, R6: La Tentatrice 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Just Bring It 5-2

WON LAST3/3 board here

Last start was a win, in a 4-horse race at PRM at 2.9-1. Purse goes from $30,000 to $44,000, a step up.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	PRM	6f D	RHP 46-86	Won/4	86	2.9-1	b LB	Duel;inside;gamely
9/5	CBY	6f D	fsMinDsfSpr55k	2nd/5 by hd	83	0.3-1	b	Ins;led;vie;not enuf
8/15	CBY	7f D	fsAlw35000nc	Won/5	85	0.1-1	b L	Led3/8;clr 3/16;rolled

6ImaluckycharmS. Elliott · K. JacksElliott · JacksA79 67 79►@trip 855-2Fair 3-126%► Steady79 67 79@trip 85A1

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 67 79

Jockey S Elliott 35% career 0-for-37 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Karen E Jacks 26% career 3-for-9 on turf this meet (33%), #3 of 19

Also today · Jockey R3: Grand Academic 3-1, R5: That Was Easy 8-1, R6: Natalies Code 6-1, R9: That's Right 5-1 · Trainer R4: Free To Be Me 12-1, R4: Clocked 8-1, R9: That's Right 5-1

2/4 board here

Goes 5 furlongs after running -5 furlongs last time. Best recent figure of 85 sits right around the 83 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD S Elliott from post 6 here: 24 wins, 57 top-3 in 121 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	RP	-5f T	Alw nc	4th/7 -1L	79	2.1-1	b L	Bid btwn; not enough
7/11	LS	1m T	fsFiestaMleB82k	8th/9 -6L	67	3.8-1	b L	Asked;prompt;stopped
6/13	LS	7½f T	fsStSchlshpB84k	5th/11 -5½L	79	1.3-1	b L	Drifted in; empty

7Electrifying Lady▲R. Vazquez · S. AsmussenVazquez · AsmussenA83 69 83▲▲+11↕5-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +1183 69 83 ↕A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–83 · Last 3 figs 83 69 83

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 6-for-32 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-46 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Saltwater Taffy 5-2, R5: Outtaherway 7-2, R8: Lanaluah 2-1, R9: Prince Lancelot 8-1 · Trainer R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, this race: Banterra 7-2 +1 more

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. 2nd of 16 at 4F on Aug 22, in :49.20.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 7 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 39 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	6½f D	Alw b	2nd/7 -3L	83	5.3-1	L	Track;2p;chase on
4/17	OP	5½f D	OC 35k n1x	3rd/8 -8L	69	7.8-1	L	Pinch st; 3p; 7p upper
3/13	OP	5½f D	RHP 72-81	4th/7 -1½L	83	11-1	L	2nd flight;outkickd3rd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Allowance · $44,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$44,000

Post

10:18 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 26%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 54.87

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Imaluckycharm (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 79 · 67 · 79. Backup is #3 Banterra at 7-2. Use #5 Thunders Rocknroll in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 IMALUCKYCHARM (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 IMALUCKYCHARM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 22.2%).
#5 THUNDERS ROCKNROLL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 19.4%).
#3 BANTERRA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 17.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Always Spiteful; pressure from #2 Bank On Daisy, #4 Wauneka; the shape helps #3 Banterra, #4 Wauneka, #5 Thunders Rocknroll; and works against #1 Always Spiteful, #2 Bank On Daisy.

Lead

1Always Spiteful952Bank On Daisy95

Press

4Wauneka995Thunders Rocknroll967Electrifying Lady966Imaluckycharm88

Stalk

3Banterra85

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Wauneka

Thunders Rocknroll

Electrifying Lady

Always Spiteful

Bank On Daisy

Imaluckycharm

Banterra

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Always Spiteful

Thunders Rocknroll

Bank On Daisy

Electrifying Lady

Banterra

Imaluckycharm

Wauneka

-5

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