Pick sheet

Race 38:26 PM Clm 20000

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Cant Stop Munnings, is 33% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Cant Stop Munnings ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +31 ↕ Up and down -21–87

Jockey E. Asmussen · Trainer S. Asmussen · KEE 4: 2-1-0 · Dist 2: 2-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 92 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	RP	7f D	Alw s	2nd/7 -2L	81	2.0-1	L	Settled; 4w; 2nd best
10/9	RP	6f D	Clm 10k	Won/5	87	1.2-1	L	Headed; roused;driving
9/18	RP	6½f D	OC 30k n2x	8th/8 -34L	-21	3.0-1	L	Inside;stopped stretch

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw10000s at RP. Last Brisnet figures 81-87--21. Best at today's distance 92. 2-for-2 at the distance. 2-for-4 at Remington Park. S. Asmussen / E. Asmussen.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Grand Academic ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best ▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86

Jockey S. Elliott · Trainer D. Cappellucci · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 9: 1-2-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	7f D	Clm 20k b	Won/11 by 1	86	15-1	b L	Head turn; 5w; up late
7/31	EVD	-8f T	OC 15k b	8th/10 -7L	71	13-1	b L	No factor; outrun
5/22	EVD	1m D	OC 15k n1xc	2nd/7	75	2.7-1	b L	Vied ins;failed to las

Case: Last out won in the Clm20000b at RP. Last Brisnet figures 86-71-75. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-9 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Remington Park. D. Cappellucci / S. Elliott.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #3 Final Storm ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 95 ≡ Steady 79–85 Last out 5th/6 -4½L in the OC35000n2x at RP. Last Brisnet figures 80-79-85. Best at today's distance 95. 1-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Remington Park. J. Evans / T. Bacon. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey T. Bacon · Trainer J. Evans · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 8: 1-1-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 95 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	5f D	OC 35k n2x	5th/6 -4½L	80	9.4-1	b L	Rallied; 4w; no threat
8/27	RP	6f D	OC 30k n2x	4th/8 -5½L	79	4.5-1	b L	Mild rally inside late
6/28	LS	6f D	OC 35k b	3rd/5 -4L	85	7.9-1	b L	Settled;moved up 3rd

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #7 · B #1, #2, #3 · C #5

Angles: #1 Last fig 86 at/above par 86 · #2 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Last fig 86 at/above par 86

R3 Remington Park · Claiming $20,000

8:26 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $27,000 · 7 runners8:26 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $27K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Grand Academic▲S. Elliott · D. CappellucciElliott · CappellucciB86 71 75▲▲+11@trip 843-1Fair 3-124%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best86 71 75@trip 84B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 862

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 71 75

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86

Jockey S Elliott 35% career 8-for-71 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Dick Cappellucci 40% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: That Was Easy 8-1, R6: Natalies Code 6-1, R7: Imaluckycharm 5-2, R9: That's Right 5-1

WON LAST

Winner of an 11-horse $20,000 claiming race at RP last time. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Head turn; 5w; up late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago

RECORD S Elliott from post 1 here: 28 wins, 77 top-3 in 144 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	7f D	Clm 20k b	Won/11 by 1	86	15-1	b L	Head turn; 5w; up late
7/31	EVD	-8f T	OC 15k b	8th/10 -7L	71	13-1	b L	No factor; outrun
5/22	EVD	1m D	OC 15k n1xc	2nd/7	75	2.7-1	b L	Vied ins;failed to las

2Mighty Message▼F. Wethey Jr. · J. PruittWethey Jr. · PruittB76 75 84▼-3≡@trip 848-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -376 75 84 ≡@trip 84B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 75 84

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey 11-for-78 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jody M Pruitt 28% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Now We Go 15-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Annie One Sock 9-2, R8: Den's Dazzler 3-1 +1 more

Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. Goes 6 furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	RP	5f D	Clm 10k	4th/7 -2L	76	7.9-1	b L	Inside; out finished
7/1	FMT	4f D	Clm 10k	2nd/4 by hd	75	3.5-1	b L	Dueled ins;just missed
5/2	WRD	5½f D	Clm 7k c	Won/6	84	5.8-1	b L	3w;met bid;dug in late

3Final Storm★T. Bacon · J. EvansBacon · EvansB80 79 85▼-3≡@trip 959-2Fair 6-114%▼ Down -380 79 85 ≡@trip 95B★ Best at the trip 953

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 79–85 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 79 85

★ Best at the trip 95

Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 10-for-62 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Justin Evans 41% career 7-for-51 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Saw Dog 5-1, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R7: Always Spiteful 8-1, R8: Chitoz's Blur 12-1 +1 more

Drops from optional claiming to $20,000 claiming. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Apr 24; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	5f D	OC 35k n2x	5th/6 -4½L	80	9.4-1	b L	Rallied; 4w; no threat
8/27	RP	6f D	OC 30k n2x	4th/8 -5½L	79	4.5-1	b L	Mild rally inside late
6/28	LS	6f D	OC 35k b	3rd/5 -4L	85	7.9-1	b L	Settled;moved up 3rd

4Iowa Club▲E. Valdez-Jiminez · J. RobinsonValdez-Jiminez · RobinsonA86 56 80▲▲+14↕@trip 825-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +1486 56 80 ↕@trip 82A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–86 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 56 80

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 6-for-61 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jashua Robinson 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Bling It To Me 6-1, R7: Wauneka 8-1, R8: Forbidden Lover 8-1, R9: Sawasdee 6-1

An 88 top number against a 86 par, so it fits the level. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP 5w; led; out finished last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Jun 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 4 here: 3 wins, 15 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	7f D	Clm 20k b	2nd/11	86	45-1	b L	5w; led; out finished
9/26	PRM	1 1/16 D	sTEBranstd100k	5th/5 -20L	56	55-1	b B	Saved grnd;retreated
9/11	PRM	1 1/16 D	sAlw55589nc	3rd/5 -4L	80	8.4-1	b LB	Trck pace;bid 1/4p;3wd

5Spirit's MischiefR. Huckaby · S. CondonHuckaby · CondonC77 75 80►≡@trip 8310-1Fair 20-14%► Steady77 75 80 ≡@trip 83C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–80 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 80

Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 2-for-48 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Schuyler Condon 26% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Bring It 5-2, R4: Sugar Tea 15-1, R6: La Tentatrice 10-1, R7: Thunders Rocknroll 3-1 +1 more

Finished 3rd in a 7-horse allowance race at PRM, beaten a head. 2nd of 34 at 4F on Jan 28, in :48.20.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 267d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	5½f D	Alw s	3rd/7 by hd	77	2.7-1	LB	Prolonged duel;wknd
9/4	PRM	6f D	Alw s	3rd/6 -2L	75	4.8-1	LB	3wd tn;sustained bid
8/8	PRM	6f D	Alw s	3rd/7 -1½L	80	2.1-1	LB	Vied;ran on;outfinshed

6Cant Stop MunningsE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA81 87 -21▲▲+31↕@trip 922-1Fair 2-133%▲▲ Big jump +3181 87 -21 ↕@trip 92A1

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +31 · ↕ Up-and-down figures -21–87 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 87 -21

Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 32-for-109 on dirt this meet (29%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 35-for-139 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R7: Banterra 7-2, R9: Bad Beat Brian 5-2 · Trainer R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R7: Banterra 7-2, R7: Electrifying Lady 5-1 +1 more

3/4 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 88 next best. Turns back in 7 days.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 32d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 6 here: 10 wins, 26 top-3 in 45 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	RP	7f D	Alw s	2nd/7 -2L	81	2.0-1	L	Settled; 4w; 2nd best
10/9	RP	6f D	Clm 10k	Won/5	87	1.2-1	L	Headed; roused;driving
9/18	RP	6½f D	OC 30k n2x	8th/8 -34L	-21	3.0-1	L	Inside;stopped stretch

7Dutch MillsR. Diaz · J. CaldwellDiaz · CaldwellA85 80 77▲+4@trip 876-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +485 80 77@trip 87A

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 80 77

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 8-for-68 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer J R Caldwell 31% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Artistic Vision 9-2, R9: Twentyone N Change 3-1

CLASS DROP2/3 board here

Changes barns, from Justin Evans to J R Caldwell. Has moved up each time out, 77 to 80 to 85.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 72 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 7 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	RP	6f D	Clm 10k c	2nd/5 by hd	85	0.9-1	b L	Rallied; 3w; led; hung
9/18	RP	6½f D	OC 30k n2x	5th/8 -3L	80	36-1	b L	Vied 2w; drop back
8/29	RP	5½f D	Clm 20k	2nd/6 -4L	77	2.0-1	b L	Settled; 3w; 2nd best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$27,000

Post

8:26 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 33%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.0

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Cant Stop Munnings (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 81 · 87 · -21. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Grand Academic at 3-1. Use #3 Final Storm in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 CANT STOP MUNNINGS (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 CANT STOP MUNNINGS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.7% to their 26.1%).
#1 GRAND ACADEMIC — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 19.6%).
#3 FINAL STORM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Spirit's Mischief; pressure from #2 Mighty Message, #7 Dutch Mills; the shape helps #2 Mighty Message, #3 Final Storm, #4 Iowa Club; and works against #5 Spirit's Mischief.

Lead

5Spirit's Mischief89

Press

2Mighty Message897Dutch Mills896Cant Stop Munnings77

Stalk

4Iowa Club883Final Storm84

1Grand Academic74

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mighty Message

Spirit's Mischief

Dutch Mills

Iowa Club

Final Storm

Cant Stop Munnings

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Grand Academic

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