Pick sheet

Race 69:50 PM Md 7500Late Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Aroa, is 31% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: #8 is the only true speed and could control it.

Top pick #3 Aroa ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best ↕ Up and down 43–67

Jockey L. Goncalves · Trainer J. Goncalves · KEE 7: 0-3-1 · Dist 4: 0-3-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 63 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	7f D	fsMd7500	2nd/8 -4L	67	2.7-1	L	Press 2w; second best
9/5	RP	6f D	fsMd10000	2nd/7	63	3.9-1	L	4wd move; led; caught
7/10	FMT	6f D	MSW	2nd/5 -5L	48	14-1	L	Trkd;mild late bid 2nd

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMd7500 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 67-63-48. Best at today's distance 63. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-7 at Remington Park. J. Goncalves / L. Goncalves.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #1 Cowgirl Cool ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 69 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (36 vs 57) Blinkers off

Jockey J. Padron-Barcenas · Trainer J. Gelner · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	RP	7½f T	MCL 20k	8th/10 -11L	36	3.6-1	b L	Stalked; 3w; gave way
6/27	EVD	1m T	MSW	8th/10 -4¾L	57	32-1	b L	Sqzd;cls inside; tired

Case: Last out 8th/10 -11L in the fMd20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 36-57. J. Gelner / J. Padron-Barcenas.

Knock: Never raced at Remington Park.

Use #4 Natalies Code ML 6-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -46 ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 69 ▲ Rider upgrade (31% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint Last out 8th/9 -40L in the sMdSpWt at RP. Last Brisnet figures 5-56-46. Best at today's distance 46. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Remington Park. J. Oberlander / S. Elliott. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey S. Elliott · Trainer J. Oberlander · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 46 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	1m D	sMdSpWt	8th/9 -40L	5	79-1	L	4 wide; outrun;
9/19	RP	6½f D	MCL 10k	5th/7 -11L	56	42-1	L	4w turn; no threat
5/29	PRM	6f D	MCL 16k	4th/6 -7¼L	46	17-1	LB	In bcak;ins;no threat

★ Distance horse: #7 Gospel Share (5-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 69 from 4 tries, record at the distance 4: 0-1-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #7, #8 · B #1, #2, #4 · C #5, #6

Angles: #1 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (36 vs 57) · #2 Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #4 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #4 Rider upgrade (31% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint · #5 Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (29 vs 43) · #5 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #6 Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 69 · #8 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 69

R6 Remington Park · Maiden Claiming $7,500

9:50 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $11,000 · 8 runners9:50 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $11K · Maiden Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #7 Gospel Share (5-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 69 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Cowgirl Cool▼▼J. Padron-Barcenas · J. GelnerPadron-Barcenas · GelnerB36 573-1Fair 4-120%—36 57B▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 69▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (36 vs 57)2
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 36 57
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 69▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (36 vs 57)
Jockey Javier Padron-Barcenas 21% career 1-for-33 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Jayde J Gelner 30% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Free To Be Me 12-1, R5: Flat Out Okie 12-1
Drops from maiden claiming $25,000 to maiden claiming $7,500. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 14 (4F in :50.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 RP 7½f T MCL 20k 8th/10 -11L 36 3.6-1 b L Stalked; 3w; gave way
6/27 EVD 1m T MSW 8th/10 -4¾L 57 32-1 b L Sqzd;cls inside; tired

2La Tentatrice▼R. Huckaby · S. RushtonHuckaby · RushtonB37 41 51▼▼-8@trip 5510-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -837 41 51@trip 55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 37 41 51

▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69

Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 2-for-48 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Stetson Rushton 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Bring It 5-2, R3: Spirit's Mischief 10-1, R4: Sugar Tea 15-1, R7: Thunders Rocknroll 3-1 +1 more

Beaten 10 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at ALB. Best recent figure is 55, well under the 69 par for this level.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 149d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	ALB	7f D	MCL 10k	6th/7 -10L	37	19-1	b L	Unhurried; no threat
8/14	ARP	7f D	MSW	5th/7 -4L	41	9.6-1	b LB	Failed to menace; 2wd
7/26	ARP	5½f D	MCL 4k	3rd/6 -5½L	51	4.6-1	b LB	Late interest; up show

3AroaL. Goncalves · J. GoncalvesGoncalves · GoncalvesA67 63 48▲▲+16↕@trip 635-2Fair 2-131%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best67 63 48 ↕@trip 63A1
Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–67 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 63 48
Jockey Leandro R Goncalves 35% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Juliana Blandi Goncalves 14% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Smart Okie 20-1, R8: Surely Swift 8-1
3/4 board here
Has moved up each time out, 48 to 63 to 67. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 10d ago)
RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Leandro R Goncalves from post 3 here: 9 wins, 24 top-3 in 66 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 RP 7f D fsMd7500 2nd/8 -4L 67 2.7-1 L Press 2w; second best
9/5 RP 6f D fsMd10000 2nd/7 63 3.9-1 L 4wd move; led; caught
7/10 FMT 6f D MSW 2nd/5 -5L 48 14-1 L Trkd;mild late bid 2nd
4Natalies Code▼▲S. Elliott · J. OberlanderElliott · OberlanderB5 56 46▼▼-46@trip 466-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -465 56 46@trip 46B▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Rider upgrade (31% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -46 · Best fig at today's trip 46 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 5 56 46
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Rider upgrade (31% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint
Jockey S Elliott 35% career 8-for-71 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jesse Oberlander 24% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Grand Academic 3-1, R5: That Was Easy 8-1, R7: Imaluckycharm 5-2, R9: That's Right 5-1
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $7,500 is an easier level on paper. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 22d ago
RECORD S Elliott from post 4 here: 26 wins, 65 top-3 in 130 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 RP 1m D sMdSpWt 8th/9 -40L 5 79-1 L 4 wide; outrun;
9/19 RP 6½f D MCL 10k 5th/7 -11L 56 42-1 L 4w turn; no threat
5/29 PRM 6f D MCL 16k 4th/6 -7¼L 46 17-1 LB In bcak;ins;no threat
5Swift Delight▼▼▼L. Luzzi · A. DupuyLuzzi · DupuyC29 43 23▼▼-9↕@trip 4512-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -929 43 23 ↕@trip 45C▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 69▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (29 vs 43)▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 23–47 · Best fig at today's trip 45 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 29 43 23
▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 69▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (29 vs 43)▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Lane J Luzzi 27% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Allen Dupuy 19% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: I'm A King Bee 8-1 · Trainer R9: Classy Socks 20-1
CLASS DROP0/3 board here
A 47 is the high figure lately, short of the 69 par. Maiden through 6 starts.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 10d back
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 RP 7f D fsMd7500 6th/8 -21L 29 22-1 L 2 wide turn; no factor
3/22 HOU 1m D MCL 20k 6th/7 -9½L 43 7.2-1 L Outrun; no factor
2/20 HOU 1m T MSW 6th/6 -21L 23 16-1 L Roughed up start
6Bodeca▼M. Fuentes · C. CunninghamFuentes · CunninghamC2710-1Fair 20-15%—27C▼ Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 69
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 27
▼ Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey Mario Fuentes 30% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Carl A Cunningham 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Over Reacted 6-1, R9: Dancing Devil 20-1
12th last time, 15 lengths back, in a field of 12. A big drop, maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $7,500, and worth asking why.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 36d back)
RECORD Mario Fuentes from post 6 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 26 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 RP 5f D fsMd30000 12th/12 -15L 27 81-1 b L Inside;3p;tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	7f D	fsMd7500	6th/8 -21L	29	22-1	L	2 wide turn; no factor
3/22	HOU	1m D	MCL 20k	6th/7 -9½L	43	7.2-1	L	Outrun; no factor
2/20	HOU	1m T	MSW	6th/6 -21L	23	16-1	L	Roughed up start

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	5f D	fsMd30000	12th/12 -15L	27	81-1	b L	Inside;3p;tired

7Gospel Share★E. Zabala · S. WilliamsZabala · WilliamsA37 57 58▼▼-21↕@trip 695-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -2137 57 58 ↕@trip 69A★ Best at the trip 69

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–58 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 37 57 58

★ Best at the trip 69

Jockey Emanuel Castillo Zabala 18% career 3-for-34 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Gospel Jim 10-1, R4: Spaced Out 20-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1 · Trainer R2: Gospel Larry 15-1, R2: Gospel Jim 10-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1, this race: Gospel Judy 9-2

Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Tops the field on speed figures, a 69 against 67 for the next best.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	RP	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	9th/11 -15L	37	30-1	L	Chased; used up; stop
3/24	WRD	6f D	MSW	7th/10 -2½L	57	2.9-1	L	Prsrd lead;vied;wknd
2/23	WRD	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -4½L	58	9.2-1	L	Hop;vie/btw;faded str

8Gospel Judy▼O. Sanchez · S. WilliamsSanchez · WilliamsA59 45 45▲▲+159-2Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best59 45 45A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 69
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Last 3 figs 59 45 45
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey Obed Sanchez 37% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Gospel Larry 15-1 · Trainer R2: Gospel Larry 15-1, R2: Gospel Jim 10-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1, this race: Gospel Share 5-1
0/4 board here
Led at the first call last time. 2nd of 31 at 4F on Sep 10, in :47.20.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Duel inside; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago
RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
RECORD Obed Sanchez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 34 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 RP 6½f D MCL 10k 4th/7 -6L 59 29-1 Duel inside; faltered;
10/9 RP 1m D MSW 7th/10 -15L 45 53-1 3 wide; no threat
9/20 RP 6½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/10 -11L 45 24-1 Chased inside; used up

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	RP	6½f D	MCL 10k	4th/7 -6L	59	29-1	Duel inside; faltered;
10/9	RP	1m D	MSW	7th/10 -15L	45	53-1	3 wide; no threat
9/20	RP	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/10 -11L	45	24-1	Chased inside; used up

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #8 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$11,000

Post

9:50 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 31%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 5-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Aroa (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 67 · 63 · 48. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Cowgirl Cool at 3-1. Use #4 Natalies Code in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 AROA (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 AROA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.6% to their 22.2%).
#1 COWGIRL COOL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.4%).
#7 GOSPEL SHARE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #8 Gospel Judy.

Lead

8Gospel Judy89

Press

none

Stalk

3Aroa87

7Gospel Share885Swift Delight792La Tentatrice77

No style yet

1Cowgirl Cool936Bodeca834Natalies Code70

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Gospel Judy

Aroa

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

La Tentatrice

Swift Delight

Gospel Share

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