Pick sheet

Race 17:30 PM Clm 20000b

5F · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Saltwater Taffy, is 30% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Saltwater Taffy ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ★ Best at 5f turf: 85 ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 79

Jockey R. Vazquez · Trainer A. Gustafson · KEE 3: 1-2-0 · Dist 10: 2-4-3 · best fig at 5f turf 85 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	RP	5f T	Clm 20k	2nd/6 -2L	85	5.8-1	L	Chased; 2w; 2nd best
9/4	RP	5½f D	Clm 5k b	Won/7 by 1½	70	1.2-1	L	Alter'd 5wd; in time
7/5	LS	5f T	OC 12k	3rd/8 -3L	75	5.0-1	L	Prssd ins;gain up rail

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 85-70-75. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-10 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Remington Park. A. Gustafson / R. Vazquez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Miss Arlington ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -6

Jockey E. Asmussen · Trainer S. Asmussen · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	RP	5½f D	Clm 20k	4th/7 -5L	67	2.8-1	b L	Vied 3w; faltered;
9/12	RP	5f D	Clm 30k b	4th/6 -2L	82	1.6-1	b L	Vied 3w; faltered
4/17	OP	5½f D	OC 35k n1xv	6th/8 -4½L	65	5.7-1	b L	Stalk 4p; weakened 1/8

Case: Last out 4th/7 -5L in the fClm20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 67-82-65. Best at today's distance 82. 0-for-2 at the distance. S. Asmussen / E. Asmussen.

Knock: Never raced at Remington Park. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #2 Artistic Vision ML 9-2 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 76–81 Last out 4th/5 -5L in the fsAlw44000nc at RP. Last Brisnet figures 78-78-76. Best at today's distance 84. 4-for-5 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Remington Park. M. Silva / R. Diaz. Knock: Off 350 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey R. Diaz · Trainer M. Silva · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 5: 4-0-0 · best fig at 5f turf 83 · 350 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
11/15	RP	6½f D	fsAlw44000nc	4th/5 -5L	78	12-1	L	Chased inside; weaken
10/17	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	5th/9 -4L	78	8.2-1	L	Vied 2w; weakened
8/8	RP	5½f D	fsAlw20000s	2nd/6	76	0.3-1	L	Trkd2w;bid uppr;caught

Longshot #9 Raspberry Martini ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -6

Jockey G. Franko-Angeles · Trainer J. Padilla · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5f turf 75 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	5th/8 -8L	69	52-1	b L	Hard to load; 2w turn
9/26	RP	5f T	Clm 20k	4th/6 -3½L	75	7.7-1	b L	Chased; 2w; no menace
9/12	RP	5f D	Clm 30k b	5th/6 -3½L	82	19-1	b L	Swung 5w; no threat

Case: Last out 5th/8 -8L in the fsOkClDfSpH130k at RP. Last Brisnet figures 69-75-82. Best at today's distance 82. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Remington Park. J. Padilla / G. Franko-Angeles.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #6 · B #1, #9, #10 · C #3, #5, #7, #8

Angles: #3 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (53 vs 80) · #5 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #6 Last fig 85 at/above par 79

R1 Remington Park · Claiming $20,000

7:30 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $26,000 · 10 runners7:30 PM · 5f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $26K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Miss ArlingtonE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB67 82 65▼-67-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -667 82 65B2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 67 82 65

Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 10-for-42 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-46 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R7: Banterra 7-2, R9: Bad Beat Brian 5-2 · Trainer R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R7: Banterra 7-2, R7: Electrifying Lady 5-1 +1 more

CLASS DROP

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 85 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Vied 3w; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)

RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 1 here: 6 wins, 22 top-3 in 36 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	RP	5½f D	Clm 20k	4th/7 -5L	67	2.8-1	b L	Vied 3w; faltered;
9/12	RP	5f D	Clm 30k b	4th/6 -2L	82	1.6-1	b L	Vied 3w; faltered
4/17	OP	5½f D	OC 35k n1xv	6th/8 -4½L	65	5.7-1	b L	Stalk 4p; weakened 1/8

2Artistic VisionR. Diaz · M. SilvaDiaz · SilvaA78 78 76►≡@trip 839-2Fair 8-112%► Steady78 78 76 ≡@trip 83A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–81 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 78 76

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 0-for-26 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Miguel Silva 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Dutch Mills 6-1, R9: Twentyone N Change 3-1

180D+ LAYOFF3/5 board here

Returns from a 350-day break. Class relief: allowance last time, $20,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 2 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 70 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
11/15	RP	6½f D	fsAlw44000nc	4th/5 -5L	78	12-1	L	Chased inside; weaken
10/17	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	5th/9 -4L	78	8.2-1	L	Vied 2w; weakened
8/8	RP	5½f D	fsAlw20000s	2nd/6	76	0.3-1	L	Trkd2w;bid uppr;caught

3Marquee Lady▼I. Diego · L. AshfordDiego · AshfordC53 80 75▼▼-27↕10-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2753 80 75 ↕C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (53 vs 80)

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–85 · Last 3 figs 53 80 75

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (53 vs 80)

Jockey I V Diego 29% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Logan Ashford 34% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Charlotte Joy 10-1, R7: Bank On Daisy 6-1

3/5 board here

Logan Ashford takes over the training from Justin Evans. Moves up from allowance to $20,000 claiming.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD I V Diego from post 3 here: 13 wins, 41 top-3 in 98 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	RP	5½f D	Alw s	4th/5 -3L	53	1.0-1	b L	Dueled; 2w; weakened;
5/2	WRD	5½f D	Alw s	Won/6	80	0.8-1	b L	Stp slw;ins;held safe
4/13	WRD	6f D	fsAlw28000n2x	3rd/6 -2L	75	7.0-1	b L	Btw1/8;left-ld;willing

4Bling It to MeE. Valdez-Jiminez · R. CravensValdez-Jiminez · CravensA77 75 73►≡@trip 826-1Fair 8-111%► Steady77 75 73 ≡@trip 82A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–77 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 73

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Iowa Club 5-1, R7: Wauneka 8-1, R8: Forbidden Lover 8-1, R9: Sawasdee 6-1 · Trainer R7: Wauneka 8-1

A longer trip: -5 furlongs last out, 5 furlongs today. Last out was 4th, 3¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse allowance race at RP.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rallied; 5w; no threat. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 80 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 4 here: 3 wins, 15 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	RP	-5f T	Alw n2x	4th/7 -3¾L	77	30-1	L	Rallied; 5w; no threat
9/26	RP	5f T	Clm 20k	5th/6 -4L	75	4.1-1	L	2 wide turn; no threat
9/4	RP	-5f T	Alw nc	5th/7 -1¾L	73	14-1	L	Close up 4wd; no rally

5Now We Go▼F. Wethey Jr. · B. CasterWethey Jr. · CasterC62 70 50▲+3@trip 7115-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +362 70 50@trip 71C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 70 50
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey ★ 7-for-31 on turf this meet (23%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Boyd Caster 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Mighty Message 8-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Annie One Sock 9-2, R8: Den's Dazzler 3-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Cur Non 12-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R9: Devious Dennis 10-1
60D LAYOFF
107 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. A step up in company: $10,000 claiming before, $20,000 claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 23d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/16 FMT 4f D Clm 10k 4th/5 -3½L 62 2.6-1 L 4-w; evenly late
7/1 FMT 4f D Alw n1x Won/6 70 2.8-1 L Vied ins;cmd1/4;drwclr
6/18 FMT 4f D Alw n1x 2nd/5 -1½L 50 2.0-1 L Early speed; no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/16	FMT	4f D	Clm 10k	4th/5 -3½L	62	2.6-1	L	4-w; evenly late
7/1	FMT	4f D	Alw n1x	Won/6	70	2.8-1	L	Vied ins;cmd1/4;drwclr
6/18	FMT	4f D	Alw n1x	2nd/5 -1½L	50	2.0-1	L	Early speed; no match

6Saltwater Taffy▲★R. Vazquez · A. GustafsonVazquez · GustafsonA85 70 75▲▲+10@trip 855-2Fair 5-230%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best85 70 75@trip 85A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 851

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 70 75

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 85

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 6-for-32 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Austin Gustafson 34% career 2-for-12 on turf this meet (17%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Outtaherway 7-2, R7: Electrifying Lady 5-1, R8: Lanaluah 2-1, R9: Prince Lancelot 8-1 · Trainer R5: Outtaherway 7-2, R8: Lanaluah 2-1

CLASS UP5/5 board here

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $20,000 claiming race at RP, beaten 2 lengths. Figure of 85 on the record sits above the 79 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (3 wins)

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 6 here: 12 wins, 28 top-3 in 50 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	RP	5f T	Clm 20k	2nd/6 -2L	85	5.8-1	L	Chased; 2w; 2nd best
9/4	RP	5½f D	Clm 5k b	Won/7 by 1½	70	1.2-1	L	Alter'd 5wd; in time
7/5	LS	5f T	OC 12k	3rd/8 -3L	75	5.0-1	L	Prssd ins;gain up rail

7Smart OkieL. Goncalves · J. HaleGoncalves · HaleC75 74 72►20-1Fair 50-12%► Steady75 74 72C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 75 74 72

Jockey Leandro R Goncalves 35% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%) · Trainer James Victor Hale 19% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Aroa 5-2, R8: Surely Swift 8-1 · Trainer R9: Dancing Devil 20-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Switches from dirt to turf. Freshened 351 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Leandro R Goncalves from post 7 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 32 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
11/14	RP	6f D	fsClm20000	7th/9 -4¾L	75	19-1	b L	2w turn; no threat
10/17	RP	7f D	fsHcp10000s	4th/7 -5L	74	3.4-1	b L	Stalk; 3w; bid; tired
9/20	RP	-7½f T	fsClm30000	5th/6 -6L	72	15-1	b L	Settled; 3w; no menace

8Cur NonR. Eramia · B. CasterEramia · CasterC75 47 82▲+7↕12-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +775 47 82 ↕C
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–82 · Last 3 figs 75 47 82
Jockey Richard E Eramia 30% career 1-for-19 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Boyd Caster 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Trainer this race: Now We Go 15-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R9: Devious Dennis 10-1
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Worked 4F in :49.20 on Oct 19, 3rd of 7 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 12d ago)
RECORD Richard E Eramia from post 8 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 52 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 RP 5f D Clm 30k b 6th/6 -4½L 75 9.1-1 L Vied 2w; gave way;
5/1 OP 6f D fsOC25000n1x 12th/12 -26L 47 13-1 L Tired 3-4w
4/3 OP 6f D fsClm25000n3l Won/8 82 2.3-1 L Bump st;2p5/16;5p lane

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	RP	5f D	Clm 30k b	6th/6 -4½L	75	9.1-1	L	Vied 2w; gave way;
5/1	OP	6f D	fsOC25000n1x	12th/12 -26L	47	13-1	L	Tired 3-4w
4/3	OP	6f D	fsClm25000n3l	Won/8	82	2.3-1	L	Bump st;2p5/16;5p lane

9Raspberry MartiniLSG. Franko-Angeles · J. PadillaFranko-Angeles · PadillaB69 75 82▼-6@trip 758-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -669 75 82@trip 75BLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 75 82

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles · Trainer Juan Padilla 32% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Trainer R2: I'm The Posse 6-1, R4: Over Reacted 6-1

Figures have slipped: 82, 75, 69 over its last three. Purse drops from $130,000 to $26,000 against its last start.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 56 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	6f D	fsOkClDfSpH130k	5th/8 -8L	69	52-1	b L	Hard to load; 2w turn
9/26	RP	5f T	Clm 20k	4th/6 -3½L	75	7.7-1	b L	Chased; 2w; no menace
9/12	RP	5f D	Clm 30k b	5th/6 -3½L	82	19-1	b L	Swung 5w; no threat

10GiveitaspinJ. Alvarez · M. BuehrerAlvarez · BuehrerB72 75 87▼-615-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -672 75 87B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 72 75 87

Jockey Jose L Alvarez 34% career 3-for-26 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Iona McKinzie 5-2, R9: Classy Socks 20-1 · Trainer R8: Den's Dazzler 3-1, R9: Twentyone N Change 3-1

3/6 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 85 next best. Cuts back from 6½ furlongs to 5 furlongs.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 14 (5F in 1:01.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jose L Alvarez from post 10 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 23 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	6½f D	Alw b	6th/7 -8L	72	5.1-1	L	Outside;3p;no bid
8/28	RP	7f D	frOkStlnFilH50k	2nd/5 -1L	75	1.6-1	L	Duel inside; 2nd best
4/13	WRD	6f D	Alw nc	Won/4 by hd	87	3.5-1	L	Captured foe1/16;drivn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

7:30 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 30%

Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 54.87

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Saltwater Taffy (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 85 · 70 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Miss Arlington at 7-2. Use #2 Artistic Vision in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 SALTWATER TAFFY (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 SALTWATER TAFFY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 22.2%).
#1 MISS ARLINGTON — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 17.3%).
#2 ARTISTIC VISION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Cur Non; pressure from #1 Miss Arlington, #5 Now We Go; and works against #1 Miss Arlington, #5 Now We Go, #8 Cur Non.

Lead

8Cur Non961Miss Arlington925Now We Go82

Press

10Giveitaspin913Marquee Lady909Raspberry Martini872Artistic Vision864Bling It To Me846Saltwater Taffy82

Stalk

7Smart Okie78

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cur Non

Miss Arlington

Giveitaspin

Marquee Lady

Raspberry Martini

Artistic Vision

Bling It To Me

Now We Go

Saltwater Taffy

Smart Okie

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Marquee Lady

Now We Go

Giveitaspin

Miss Arlington

Smart Okie

Cur Non

Artistic Vision

Raspberry Martini

Saltwater Taffy

Bling It To Me

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

WPS / EXACTA / TRIFECTA (.50 CENT MINIMUM) / SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM)

DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5) (.50 CENT MINIMUM)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.