Pick sheet

Race 27:58 PM Md 10000Early Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Just Bring It, is 26% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Just Bring It ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best ★ Best at 5½f dirt: 46 ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 65

Jockey R. Huckaby · Trainer P. Swan · KEE 3: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 46 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/12 -8L	51	81-1	b	Block 1/4; 4w late
9/27	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/8 -5L	46	18-1	b	Unhurried; no threat
9/17	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	8th/11 -8¼L	30	15-1	b	2w turn; no menace

Case: Last out 4th/12 -8L in the sMdSpWt at RP. Last Brisnet figures 51-46-30. Best at today's distance 46. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Remington Park. P. Swan / R. Huckaby.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #7 Saw Dog ML 5-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 65

Jockey T. Bacon · Trainer O. Flores · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 14 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	6f D	sMdSpWt	12th/12 -29L	-10	21-1	b	2w; used up; stopped
9/18	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	10th/10 -19L	14	4.9-1	b	Pinched; taken up

Case: Last out 12th/12 -29L in the sMdSpWt at RP. Last Brisnet figures -10-14. Best at today's distance 14. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Remington Park. O. Flores / T. Bacon.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #5 Forged With Fyre ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 65 Last out 7th/12 -8L in the sMdSpWt at RP. Last Brisnet figures 48-41-53. Best at today's distance 41. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Remington Park. V. Hanson / I. Wiseman. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey I. Wiseman · Trainer V. Hanson · KEE 3: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 41 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	6f D	sMdSpWt	7th/12 -8L	48	26-1	b	Settled; 5w; no threat
9/17	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/11 -6L	41	24-1	b	Chased; 2w; gave way;
8/21	RP	5f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -5¼L	53	3.0-1	b	Awkward st;3w;5w upr

Longshot #8 I'm a King Bee ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #6 ▼ Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 65

Jockey L. Luzzi · Trainer T. Ashford · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 27 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	9th/10 -16L	27	17-1		Inside turn; no threat

Case: Last out 9th/10 -16L in the sMdSpWt at RP. Last Brisnet figures 27. Best at today's distance 27. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Remington Park. T. Ashford / L. Luzzi.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #6 · B #1, #7, #8 · C #2 · ? #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 65 · #2 Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 65 · #3 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 65 · #5 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 65 · #6 Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 65 · #7 Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 65 · #8 Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 65

R2 Remington Park · Maiden Claiming $10,000

7:58 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $15,000 · 8 runners7:58 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $15K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1I'm the Posse▼E. Lara · J. PadillaLara · PadillaB146-1Fair 8-112%—14B▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 65
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 14
▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Ezequiel Lara 26% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Juan Padilla 32% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Trainer R1: Raspberry Martini 8-1, R4: Over Reacted 6-1
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper. Beaten 24 lengths for 11th in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at RP.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 21d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 RP 6f D sMdSpWt 11th/12 -24L 14 49-1 b Ran off post parade
2Gospel Larry▼O. Sanchez · S. WilliamsSanchez · WilliamsC33 31@trip 3115-1Fair 30-13%—33 31@trip 31C▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 65
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 31 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 33 31
▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Obed Sanchez 37% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Gospel Judy 9-2 · Trainer this race: Gospel Jim 10-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1, R6: Gospel Share 5-1, R6: Gospel Judy 9-2
Jky 14/69 from post 2
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 33 against a 65 par. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $10,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 51d ago
RECORD Obed Sanchez from post 2 here: 14 wins, 32 top-3 in 69 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 RP 5f D MSW 8th/8 -12L 33 34-1 b Chase;svd gnd;tired
9/18 RP 5½f D sMdSpWt 6th/10 -11L 31 65-1 b Chased; 2w; gave way
3Just Bring It▼★R. Huckaby · P. SwanHuckaby · SwanA51 46 30▲▲+13@trip 465-2Fair 3-126%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best51 46 30@trip 46A▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 65★ Best at the trip 461
Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 46 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 46 30
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 65★ Best at the trip 46
Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 2-for-48 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Patrick E Swan 27% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Spirit's Mischief 10-1, R4: Sugar Tea 15-1, R6: La Tentatrice 10-1, R7: Thunders Rocknroll 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Thunders Rocknroll 3-1
0/3 board here
Has moved up each time out, 30 to 46 to 51. Jockey switch: Weston Hamilton last out, Ronnie Huckaby today.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Block 1/4; 4w late last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 24d back
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 RP 6f D sMdSpWt 4th/12 -8L 51 81-1 b Block 1/4; 4w late
9/27 RP 5½f D sMdSpWt 6th/8 -5L 46 18-1 b Unhurried; no threat
9/17 RP 5½f D sMdSpWt 8th/11 -8¼L 30 15-1 b 2w turn; no menace
4Ranch ManW. Hamilton · M. BiehlerHamilton · Biehler?4-1Fair 7-113%—Debut?
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 4-for-64 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael E Biehler 33% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Clocked 8-1, R8: Bridie's Legacy 7-2, R9: West Of Town 15-1 · Trainer R8: Bridie's Legacy 7-2
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Bayerd and Feels Good breeding. First-time starter from a barn that wins 10% of the time with them (50 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 26; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Weston Hamilton from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 37 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Bayerd out of Feels Good (Vindication)
Trainer M. Biehler: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 22% in the money (50 starts) · 2-year-olds: 14% wins, 35% in the money (65 starts)
Jockey W. Hamilton in sprints: 32 wins from 310 (10%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/17 RP 5f 1:02.40 handily 22/49 from gate
10/10 RP 4f :49.60 handily 35/105
10/3 RP 4f :51.20 handily 71/94
9/26 RP 3f :36.40 handily 1/25 ● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	6f D	sMdSpWt	11th/12 -24L	14	49-1	b	Ran off post parade

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	5f D	MSW	8th/8 -12L	33	34-1	b	Chase;svd gnd;tired
9/18	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/10 -11L	31	65-1	b	Chased; 2w; gave way

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/17	RP	5f	1:02.40	handily	22/49	from gate
10/10	RP	4f	:49.60	handily	35/105
10/3	RP	4f	:51.20	handily	71/94
9/26	RP	3f	:36.40	handily	1/25	● bullet

5Forged With Fyre▼I. Wiseman · V. HansonWiseman · HansonA48 41 53►@trip 417-2Fair 6-115%► Steady48 41 53@trip 41A▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 653

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 41 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 41 53

▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 65

Jockey Isaiah Wiseman 24% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Vic Hanson 37% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Kelbela 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 56. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $10,000, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE With the front end asleep, a closer has nothing to run down.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Settled; 5w; no threat), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 109 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Isaiah Wiseman from post 5 here: 1 win, 13 top-3 in 53 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	RP	6f D	sMdSpWt	7th/12 -8L	48	26-1	b	Settled; 5w; no threat
9/17	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/11 -6L	41	24-1	b	Chased; 2w; gave way;
8/21	RP	5f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -5¼L	53	3.0-1	b	Awkward st;3w;5w upr

6Gospel Jim▼E. Zabala · S. WilliamsZabala · WilliamsA36 36@trip 3610-1Fair 20-15%—36 36@trip 36A▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 65
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 36 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 36 36
▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Emanuel Castillo Zabala 18% career 3-for-34 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Spaced Out 20-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1, R6: Gospel Share 5-1 · Trainer this race: Gospel Larry 15-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1, R6: Gospel Share 5-1, R6: Gospel Judy 9-2
Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs. Finished 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at RP, beaten 19 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 64d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 RP 1m D sMdSpWt 7th/9 -19L 36 20-1 b Mild rally; no threat
9/18 RP 5½f D sMdSpWt 4th/10 -9L 36 53-1 b 4w; bid; flattened out
7Saw Dog▼T. Bacon · O. FloresBacon · FloresB-10 14@trip 145-1Fair 9-218%—-10 14@trip 14B▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 652
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 14 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs -10 14
▼ Best fig 14 is 5+ under today's par 65
Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 10-for-62 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Oscar Flores 33% career 6-for-51 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Final Storm 9-2, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R7: Always Spiteful 8-1, R8: Chitoz's Blur 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Sawasdee 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
12th last time, 29 lengths back, in a field of 12. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.20 on Sep 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 RP 6f D sMdSpWt 12th/12 -29L -10 21-1 b 2w; used up; stopped
9/18 RP 5½f D sMdSpWt 10th/10 -19L 14 4.9-1 b Pinched; taken up
8I'm a King Bee▼LSL. Luzzi · T. AshfordLuzzi · AshfordB27@trip 278-1Fair 10-19%—27@trip 27B▼ Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 65LS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 27 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 27
▼ Best fig 27 is 5+ under today's par 65LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Lane J Luzzi 27% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Tristan Ashford 34% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Swift Delight 12-1
Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $10,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/18 RP 5½f D sMdSpWt 9th/10 -16L 27 17-1 Inside turn; no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	RP	1m D	sMdSpWt	7th/9 -19L	36	20-1	b	Mild rally; no threat
9/18	RP	5½f D	sMdSpWt	4th/10 -9L	36	53-1	b	4w; bid; flattened out

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

7:58 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 26%

Maiden Claiming, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Just Bring It (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 51 · 46 · 30. Backup is #7 Saw Dog at 5-1. Use #5 Forged With Fyre in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 JUST BRING IT (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 JUST BRING IT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 22.3%).
#5 FORGED WITH FYRE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 17.3%).
#7 SAW DOG — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.6%, they've got 13.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 SAW DOG — we make it 15.6%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 I'm The Posse, #2 Gospel Larry, #3 Just Bring It.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

5Forged With Fyre81

No style yet

7Saw Dog942Gospel Larry831I'm The Posse813Just Bring It758I'm A King Bee726Gospel Jim694Ranch Man

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Saw Dog

Gospel Larry

I'm The Posse

Forged With Fyre

Just Bring It

I'm A King Bee

Gospel Jim

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Forged With Fyre

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