Pick sheet

Race 911:14 AM Clm 20000b

5F · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Bad Beat Brian, is 23% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #7 Bad Beat Brian ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 76–83

Jockey E. Asmussen · Trainer S. Asmussen · KEE 3: 0-1-2 · Dist 45: 6-6-13 · best fig at 5f turf 88 · 120 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/3	LS	5f T	OC 20k n2x	3rd/9 -2¾L	79	5.5-1	L	Off rail 3/16; bid
6/14	LS	5f T	OC 30k n2x	6th/6 -3L	78	6.3-1	L	Swung 3-4w;not enough
5/1	LS	5f T	OC 25k b	5th/6 -6L	76	4.7-1	L	Outpacd;wide;no threat

Case: Last out 3rd in the OC20000n2x at LS. Last Brisnet figures 79-78-76. Best at today's distance 88. 6-for-45 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Remington Park. S. Asmussen / E. Asmussen.

Knock: Off 120 days.

Contender #4 Twentyone N Change ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 · career best ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84

Jockey R. Diaz · Trainer M. Buehrer · KEE 14: 3-3-4 · Dist 27: 7-4-7 · best fig at 5f turf 85 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	5f T	OC 35k n2x	2nd/6 by hd	85	8.3-1	b L	Pace inside; weakened
9/11	RP	5f T	sCBryTfSptH50k	4th/7 -1½L	79	11-1	b L	Dueled; 2w; weakened
7/1	FMT	4f D	Clm 10k	3rd/4	75	4.0-1	b L	Dueled ins;good effort

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC35000n2x at RP. Last Brisnet figures 85-79-75. Best at today's distance 85. 7-for-27 at the distance. 3-for-14 at Remington Park. M. Buehrer / R. Diaz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Sawasdee ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady ★ Best at 5f turf: 91 Last out 2nd in the Clm20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 72-76-70. Best at today's distance 91. 2-for-7 at the distance. O. Flores / E. Valdez-Jiminez. Knock: Never raced at Remington Park.

Jockey E. Valdez-Jiminez · Trainer O. Flores · Dist 7: 2-0-0 · best fig at 5f turf 91 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	5f D	Clm 20k	2nd/6 -5L	72	0.9-1	b L	Bmp brk;3p;chase on
9/17	RP	5f D	Clm 10k c	3rd/7	76	2.1-1	b L	Set pace; weakened;
8/27	RP	6f D	OC 30k n2x	6th/8 -6½L	70	10-1	b L	Set pace; faltered

Longshot #10 Prince Lancelot ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -9 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (68 vs 76)

Jockey R. Vazquez · Trainer A. Ramirez-Rodriguez · KEE 5: 1-0-1 · Dist 18: 2-2-5 · best fig at 5f turf 81 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	5f D	Clm 20k	4th/6 -7L	68	7.3-1	L	Off pace;4p;mild gain
7/20	LAD	5f T	Clm 7k n1y	4th/8 -¾L	76	4.0-1	L	4w turn; lacked punch
6/26	LS	5f T	OC 10k	4th/9 -5½L	73	6.7-1	L	Off slw;chsd;improved

Case: Last out 4th/6 -7L in the Clm20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 68-76-73. Best at today's distance 81. 2-for-18 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Remington Park. A. Ramirez-Rodriguez / R. Vazquez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #7 · B #1, #5, #10 · C #3, #6, #8, #9

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Last fig 85 at/above par 84 · #6 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #10 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (68 vs 76)

R9 Remington Park · Claiming $20,000

11:14 AM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $26,000 · 10 runners11:14 AM · 5f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $26K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #5 Sawasdee (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 91 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Devious Dennis▼T. Bacon · B. CasterBacon · CasterB77 77 87▼-710-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -777 77 87B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 77 77 87

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Boyd Caster 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Saw Dog 5-1, R3: Final Storm 9-2, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R7: Always Spiteful 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Now We Go 15-1, R1: Cur Non 12-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS DROP3/6 board here

Freshened 291 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Aug 31 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
1/13	WRD	5f D	Clm 25k	5th/10 -3½L	77	5.8-1	b L	Track;3p;outkicked
12/11	RP	5f D	sOC35000n2x	4th/6 -3½L	77	7.5-1	b L	Inside turn; no menace
11/13	RP	5f D	Alw n1x	Won/9	87	3.5-1	b L	Vied inside; driving

2That's RightS. Elliott · K. JacksElliott · JacksA79 80 82►≡@trip 825-1Fair 7-112%► Steady79 80 82 ≡@trip 82A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 80 82

Jockey S Elliott 35% career 0-for-37 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Karen E Jacks 26% career 3-for-9 on turf this meet (33%), #3 of 19

Also today · Jockey R3: Grand Academic 3-1, R5: That Was Easy 8-1, R6: Natalies Code 6-1, R7: Imaluckycharm 5-2 · Trainer R4: Free To Be Me 12-1, R4: Clocked 8-1, R7: Imaluckycharm 5-2

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. Finished 3rd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at LAD, beaten ½ length.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 4d ago

RECORD S Elliott from post 2 here: 28 wins, 82 top-3 in 132 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/23	LAD	5f T	OC 25k	3rd/6 -½L	79	3.4-1	L	Closer3w;no late punch
8/21	EVD	5f T	OC 20k n1y	3rd/8 -2L	80	6.4-1	L	Steady bid;up wire 3rd
8/4	LAD	5f T	OC 15k n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	82	2.1-1	L	Coming late btwn

3Dancing DevilM. Fuentes · J. HaleFuentes · HaleC57 56 56►≡20-1Fair 50-12%► Steady57 56 56 ≡C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 53–57 · Last 3 figs 57 56 56

Jockey Mario Fuentes 30% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James Victor Hale 19% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Over Reacted 6-1, R6: Bodeca 10-1 · Trainer R1: Smart Okie 20-1

60D LAYOFF

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. A 75 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 41d back)

RECORD Mario Fuentes from post 3 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 18 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/1	FMT	4f D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -4¾L	57	5.8-1	b L	Outpaced;mild bid
6/18	FMT	5½f D	sAlw16000n1x	5th/6 -5L	56	5.6-1	b L	Inside; no menace
6/4	FMT	1m D	Clm 10k	7th/7 -15L	56	23-1	b L	Prominent; tired

4Twentyone N Change▲R. Diaz · M. BuehrerDiaz · BuehrerA85 79 75▲+5@trip 853-1Fair 4-120%▲ Up +5 · career best85 79 75@trip 85A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 842

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 79 75

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 0-for-26 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Artistic Vision 9-2, R3: Dutch Mills 6-1 · Trainer R1: Giveitaspin 15-1, R8: Den's Dazzler 3-1

4/6 board here

Figures are climbing: 75, 79, 85 over its last three. Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at RP.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 12d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 4 here: 7 wins, 26 top-3 in 68 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	RP	5f T	OC 35k n2x	2nd/6 by hd	85	8.3-1	b L	Pace inside; weakened
9/11	RP	5f T	sCBryTfSptH50k	4th/7 -1½L	79	11-1	b L	Dueled; 2w; weakened
7/1	FMT	4f D	Clm 10k	3rd/4	75	4.0-1	b L	Dueled ins;good effort

5Sawasdee★E. Valdez-Jiminez · O. FloresValdez-Jiminez · FloresB72 76 70►@trip 916-1Fair 7-112%► Steady72 76 70@trip 91B★ Best at the trip 91

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 76 70

★ Best at the trip 91

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Oscar Flores 33% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Bling It To Me 6-1, R3: Iowa Club 5-1, R7: Wauneka 8-1, R8: Forbidden Lover 8-1 · Trainer R2: Saw Dog 5-1

CLASS UPJky 7/40 from post 5

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 84d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	5f D	Clm 20k	2nd/6 -5L	72	0.9-1	b L	Bmp brk;3p;chase on
9/17	RP	5f D	Clm 10k c	3rd/7	76	2.1-1	b L	Set pace; weakened;
8/27	RP	6f D	OC 30k n2x	6th/8 -6½L	70	10-1	b L	Set pace; faltered

6Shotgun Runner▼F. Wethey Jr. · I. OrtizWethey Jr. · OrtizC64 74 67►12-1Fair 15-17%► Steady64 74 67C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 64 74 67

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey ★ 7-for-31 on turf this meet (23%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Isaiah Ortiz 32% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Now We Go 15-1, R3: Mighty Message 8-1, R4: Jerry's Lady 5-1, R5: Annie One Sock 9-2 +1 more

Stretches out from -8 furlongs to 5 furlongs. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 74 against a 84 par.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Set pace; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	RP	-8f T	Alw n1x	7th/7 -5L	64	8.9-1	b L	Set pace; faltered
8/30	CBY	1m T	Clm 7k b	Won/6	74	1.6-1	b L	Led;svd gnd;held clear
8/16	CBY	1m T	Clm 7k b	Won/6	67	6.8-1	b L	Hop start;cleared;held

7Bad Beat BrianE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA79 78 76►≡@trip 885-2Fair 7-224%► Steady79 78 76 ≡@trip 88A1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–83 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 78 76

Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 10-for-42 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-46 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R7: Banterra 7-2 · Trainer R1: Miss Arlington 7-2, R3: Cant Stop Munnings 2-1, R5: Chicks Night Out 5-2, R7: Banterra 7-2 +1 more

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP3/3 board here

Returns from a 120-day break. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 16d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 7 here: 15 wins, 29 top-3 in 46 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/3	LS	5f T	OC 20k n2x	3rd/9 -2¾L	79	5.5-1	L	Off rail 3/16; bid
6/14	LS	5f T	OC 30k n2x	6th/6 -3L	78	6.3-1	L	Swung 3-4w;not enough
5/1	LS	5f T	OC 25k b	5th/6 -6L	76	4.7-1	L	Outpacd;wide;no threat

8West of TownW. Hamilton · M. LeeHamilton · LeeC63 69 77▼▼-1115-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1163 69 77C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 63 69 77

Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Mark Lee 23% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Ranch Man 4-1, R4: Clocked 8-1, R8: Bridie's Legacy 7-2

Purse drops from $40,000 to $26,000 against its last start. Back to 5 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)

TROUBLED TRIP Chased; 4w; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Weston Hamilton from post 8 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 23 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	RP	7f D	sHcp10000s	8th/12 -8¾L	63	7.5-1	b L	Chased; 4w; faltered;
9/19	RP	6f D	sClm30000	7th/8 -5¼L	69	1.8-1	L	Stumbled start
9/4	RP	5½f D	sClm20000b	2nd/9	77	7.4-1	b L	Pressed pace; battled

9Classy SocksJ. Alvarez · A. DupuyAlvarez · DupuyC66 76 72▼-5@trip 8120-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -566 76 72@trip 81C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 76 72
Jockey Jose L Alvarez 34% career 3-for-26 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Allen Dupuy 19% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Giveitaspin 15-1, R4: Iona McKinzie 5-2 · Trainer R6: Swift Delight 12-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 89, with 87 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)
TROUBLED TRIP Close early; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago
RECORD Jose L Alvarez from post 9 here: 8 wins, 21 top-3 in 46 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/9 LS 6½f D OC 7k 8th/8 -8L 66 10-1 L Close early; faltered
4/25 LS 5f T OC 10k 6th/11 -7L 76 14-1 L Retreat;came back str
4/4 OP 6f D sClm16000 4th/9 -1½L 72 1.9-1 L 2-3p; led1/4; flatten

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/9	LS	6½f D	OC 7k	8th/8 -8L	66	10-1	L	Close early; faltered
4/25	LS	5f T	OC 10k	6th/11 -7L	76	14-1	L	Retreat;came back str
4/4	OP	6f D	sClm16000	4th/9 -1½L	72	1.9-1	L	2-3p; led1/4; flatten

10Prince Lancelot▼LSR. Vazquez · A. Ramirez-RodriguezVazquez · Ramirez-RodriguezB68 76 73▼▼-9@trip 818-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -968 76 73@trip 81B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (68 vs 76)LS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 76 73

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (68 vs 76)LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 6-for-32 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Saltwater Taffy 5-2, R5: Outtaherway 7-2, R7: Electrifying Lady 5-1, R8: Lanaluah 2-1

CLASS UP

Beaten 7 lengths for 4th in a 6-horse $20,000 claiming race at RP. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 53d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 10 here: 4 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	5f D	Clm 20k	4th/6 -7L	68	7.3-1	L	Off pace;4p;mild gain
7/20	LAD	5f T	Clm 7k n1y	4th/8 -¾L	76	4.0-1	L	4w turn; lacked punch
6/26	LS	5f T	OC 10k	4th/9 -5½L	73	6.7-1	L	Off slw;chsd;improved

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

11:14 AM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#7 · 24%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 54.87

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Bad Beat Brian (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 79 · 78 · 76. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Twentyone N Change at 3-1. Use #2 That's Right in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 BAD BEAT BRIAN (5-2) — our number agrees.
#7 BAD BEAT BRIAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 22.3%).
#4 TWENTYONE N CHANGE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.5%).
#2 THAT'S RIGHT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.6% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Sawasdee; pressure from #4 Twentyone N Change, #8 West Of Town; the shape helps #7 Bad Beat Brian, #10 Prince Lancelot; and works against #4 Twentyone N Change, #5 Sawasdee, #8 West Of Town.

Lead

5Sawasdee914Twentyone N Change908West Of Town859Classy Socks85

Press

1Devious Dennis956Shotgun Runner90

Stalk

2That's Right833Dancing Devil78

10Prince Lancelot857Bad Beat Brian82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Devious Dennis

Sawasdee

Twentyone N Change

Shotgun Runner

West Of Town

Classy Socks

That's Right

Dancing Devil

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bad Beat Brian

Prince Lancelot

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