Pick sheet

Race 48:54 PM Md 20000

7.5F · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Iona Mckinzie, is 27% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #10 Iona Mckinzie ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ↕ Up and down 50–72 ▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 71

Jockey J. Alvarez · Trainer W. Calhoun · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	2nd/10	72	1.8-1	L	Stalk; 3w; caught late
8/4	LAD	1m T	MSW	3rd/9 -2½L	68	5.9-1	L	Prompt 2nd3w;flat str
6/23	LAD	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/7	69	4.6-1	L	Vie ins;resisted;yield

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMd20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 72-68-69. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Remington Park. W. Calhoun / J. Alvarez.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #7 Kelbela ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey I. Wiseman · Trainer W. Rarick · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	3rd/10 -3½L	63	63-1	b L	Saved ground;no menace
9/19	RP	6½f D	MCL 10k	7th/7 -10L	51	19-1	b L	Inside turn; weakened
6/28	LS	6½f D	MSW	9th/10 -16L	46	23-1	b L	Sttld ins; no factor

Case: Last out 3rd in the fMd20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 63-51-46. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Remington Park. W. Rarick / I. Wiseman.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #5 Jerry's Lady ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 ↕ Up and down 27–66 Last out 4th/10 -3½L in the fMd20000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 59-66-27. 0-for-2 at Remington Park. B. Caster / F. Wethey Jr.. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey F. Wethey Jr. · Trainer B. Caster · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	4th/10 -3½L	59	4.7-1	L	Stalk; 2w; led; weaken
9/10	RP	5f D	MCL 30k	2nd/7 -1L	66	12-1	L	Rallied; 3w; 2nd best
4/20	WRD	1m D	fsMdSpWt	6th/6 -14L	27	9.1-1	L	Jostled st;2w;empty

Longshot #4 Charlotte Joy ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey I. Diego · Trainer M. Willis · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	RP	5f D	fsMd30000	6th/12 -4¾L	50	6.1-1	L	Bmp brk;4p;pass tiring
8/27	RP	5f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/10 -8¼L	56	12-1	L	Inside; no threat;

Case: Last out 6th/12 -4¾L in the fsMd30000 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 50-56. M. Willis / I. Diego.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5f). Never raced at Remington Park.

★ Distance horse: #3 Free to Be Me (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 7½f turf: 65 from 2 tries, record at the distance 5: 0-0-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #10 · B #3, #7, #8 · C #1, #4, #6, #9

Angles: #1 Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #3 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #4 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #6 Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #7 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #8 Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 71 · #10 Last fig 72 at/above par 71

R4 Remington Park · Maiden Claiming $20,000

8:54 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $21,000 · 10 runners8:54 PM · 7½f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $21K · Maiden Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Free to Be Me (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 65 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Spaced Out▼E. Zabala · S. LeddyZabala · LeddyC40 25 47►↕20-1Fair 50-12%► Steady40 25 47 ↕C▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 71
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 25–47 · Last 3 figs 40 25 47
▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 71
Jockey Emanuel Castillo Zabala 18% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Spencer Don Leddy 14% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Gospel Jim 10-1, R5: Gospel Darlene 10-1, R6: Gospel Share 5-1
Switches from dirt to turf. Finished 7th in a 7-horse maiden claiming $35,000 race at RP, beaten 10 lengths.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 20d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/10 RP 5f D MCL 30k 7th/7 -10L 40 43-1 L Trailed; outrun
7/16 FMT 5½f D fsMdSpWt 5th/5 -10L 25 1.8-1 L Inside; no factor
7/1 FMT 5½f D MCL 5k 2nd/6 -4½L 47 2.1-1 L 5w;mid-mv;gd finish

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	RP	5f D	MCL 30k	7th/7 -10L	40	43-1	L	Trailed; outrun
7/16	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/5 -10L	25	1.8-1	L	Inside; no factor
7/1	FMT	5½f D	MCL 5k	2nd/6 -4½L	47	2.1-1	L	5w;mid-mv;gd finish

2Over ReactedM. Fuentes · J. PadillaFuentes · PadillaA59 70 40►↕6-1Fair 8-111%► Steady59 70 40 ↕A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–70 · Last 3 figs 59 70 40

Jockey Mario Fuentes 30% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Juan Padilla 32% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Bodeca 10-1, R9: Dancing Devil 20-1 · Trainer R1: Raspberry Martini 8-1, R2: I'm The Posse 6-1

CLASS UP

Stretches out from -8½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs. Still looking for the first win after 6 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 2)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Settled; 2w; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Mario Fuentes from post 2 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 16 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	5th/10 -4¾L	59	17-1	b L	Settled; 2w; faltered
9/19	RP	6½f D	MCL 10k	2nd/7 -4L	70	10-1	b L	Rallied; 3w; 2nd ebst
9/4	RP	5½f D	MCL 7k	6th/7 -13L	40	7.6-1	L	In tight early;gaining

3Free to Be Me▼★J. Padron-Barcenas · K. JacksPadron-Barcenas · JacksB60 50 62►@trip 6512-1Fair 30-14%► Steady60 50 62@trip 65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71★ Best at the trip 65

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 65 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 50 62

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 71★ Best at the trip 65

Jockey Javier Padron-Barcenas 21% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Karen E Jacks 26% career 3-for-9 on turf this meet (33%), #3 of 19

Also today · Jockey R5: Flat Out Okie 12-1, R6: Cowgirl Cool 3-1 · Trainer this race: Clocked 8-1, R7: Imaluckycharm 5-2, R9: That's Right 5-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Raises its level, maiden claiming $10,000 last time and maiden claiming $20,000 now. Changes barns, from Ronnie Iii Cravens to Karen E Jacks.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 23d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/3	LAD	7½f T	MCL 10k	6th/10 -6L	60	10-1	b L	Saved ground;empty
7/25	EVD	-7½f T	MCL 20k	6th/9 -9½L	50	21-1	b L	Bumped start; outrun
6/22	LAD	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	2nd/9 -2½L	62	24-1	b L	Stalked;3-w 1/4;game

4Charlotte Joy▼LSI. Diego · M. WillisDiego · WillisC50 5610-1Fair 10-19%—50 56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 71LS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 50 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 71LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey I V Diego 29% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Mindy Willis 35% career 0-for-25 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Marquee Lady 10-1, R7: Bank On Daisy 6-1 · Trainer R5: That Was Easy 8-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 56 against a 71 par. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 25; 1 work in 30d
RECORD I V Diego from post 4 here: 5 wins, 32 top-3 in 94 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 RP 5f D fsMd30000 6th/12 -4¾L 50 6.1-1 L Bmp brk;4p;pass tiring
8/27 RP 5f D fsMdSpWt 6th/10 -8¼L 56 12-1 L Inside; no threat;

5Jerry's LadyF. Wethey Jr. · B. CasterWethey Jr. · CasterA59 66 27▲▲+8↕5-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +859 66 27 ↕A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–66 · Last 3 figs 59 66 27

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey ★ 7-for-31 on turf this meet (23%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Boyd Caster 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Now We Go 15-1, R3: Mighty Message 8-1, R5: Annie One Sock 9-2, R8: Den's Dazzler 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Now We Go 15-1, R1: Cur Non 12-1, R5: Back Then Rite Now 8-1, R9: Devious Dennis 10-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from maiden claiming $25,000 to maiden claiming $20,000. Goes 7½ furlongs after running -8½ furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (5F in 1:00.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	4th/10 -3½L	59	4.7-1	L	Stalk; 2w; led; weaken
9/10	RP	5f D	MCL 30k	2nd/7 -1L	66	12-1	L	Rallied; 3w; 2nd best
4/20	WRD	1m D	fsMdSpWt	6th/6 -14L	27	9.1-1	L	Jostled st;2w;empty

6Sugar Tea▼R. Huckaby · L. ChleboradHuckaby · ChleboradC28 43 49▼▼-1815-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1828 43 49C▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Last 3 figs 28 43 49

▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Lynn Chleborad 27% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Bring It 5-2, R3: Spirit's Mischief 10-1, R6: La Tentatrice 10-1, R7: Thunders Rocknroll 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Chitoz's Blur 12-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Back after 140 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Figures have slipped: 49, 43, 28 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/13	PRM	1m D	MSW	5th/5 -15L	28	30-1	LB	Up close 3wd;retreated
5/1	OP	6f D	MCL 50k	12th/12 -25L	43	77-1	L	Trailed;always outrun
4/18	OP	6f D	MCL 62k	6th/6 -10L	49	23-1	L	Off pace 4p; no threat

7Kelbela▼I. Wiseman · W. RarickWiseman · RarickB63 51 46▲▲+97-2Fair 9-219%▲▲ Big jump +963 51 46B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 712

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 63 51 46

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Isaiah Wiseman 24% career 0-for-12 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Wade Rarick 31% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Forged With Fyre 7-2

CLASS UPJky 5/50 from post 7

Has moved up each time out, 46 to 51 to 63. 3rd last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Isaiah Wiseman from post 7 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 50 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	3rd/10 -3½L	63	63-1	b L	Saved ground;no menace
9/19	RP	6½f D	MCL 10k	7th/7 -10L	51	19-1	b L	Inside turn; weakened
6/28	LS	6½f D	MSW	9th/10 -16L	46	23-1	b L	Sttld ins; no factor

8Clocked▼W. Hamilton · K. JacksHamilton · JacksB40 48 54▼▼-11@trip 548-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1140 48 54@trip 54B▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 71

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 40 48 54

▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 71

Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Karen E Jacks 26% career 3-for-9 on turf this meet (33%), #3 of 19

Also today · Jockey R2: Ranch Man 4-1, R8: Bridie's Legacy 7-2, R9: West Of Town 15-1 · Trainer this race: Free To Be Me 12-1, R7: Imaluckycharm 5-2, R9: That's Right 5-1

CLASS UP

Jockey switch: Fernando Jara last out, Weston Hamilton today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days ago

RECORD Weston Hamilton from post 8 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 23 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	RP	6f D	MCL 10k	6th/8 -14L	40	13-1	L	Settled; no meance
9/29	LAD	1 1/16 D	MCL 5k	3rd/6 by hd	48	7.8-1	L	Bid 2nd;led;caught 2nd
9/16	LAD	7½f T	MCL 7k	6th/12 -1½L	54	44-1	L	Forward inside;empty

9Honor GodL. Quinonez · E. CruzQuinonez · CruzC52 58 59▼-6≡15-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -652 58 59 ≡C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 52–59 · Last 3 figs 52 58 59
Jockey L S Quinonez 31% career ★ 3-for-15 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Eduardo Cruz 30% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Let'sgojlo 4-1
Last out was 6th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at RP. Maiden through 10 starts.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 77d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD L S Quinonez from post 9 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 RP 1m D MSW 6th/7 -12L 52 31-1 b L Chase;svd gnd;faded
9/10 RP 1m D MCL 30k 3rd/6 -7L 58 5.0-1 b L Press 2w; faltered
8/29 RP 1m T MCL 30k 5th/9 -2¼L 59 5.5-1 b L Inside; no threat
10Iona Mckinzie▲J. Alvarez · W. CalhounAlvarez · CalhounA72 68 69▲▲+10↕5-2Fair 5-227%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best72 68 69 ↕A▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 711
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–72 · Last 3 figs 72 68 69
▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 71
Jockey Jose L Alvarez 34% career 3-for-26 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career 3-for-8 on turf this meet (38%), #1 of 19 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Giveitaspin 15-1, R9: Classy Socks 20-1
Owns the highest recent figure here at 72. Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Jul 21, in 1:01.40.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Jose L Alvarez from post 10 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 23 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 RP -8½f T MCL 20k 2nd/10 72 1.8-1 L Stalk; 3w; caught late
8/4 LAD 1m T MSW 3rd/9 -2½L 68 5.9-1 L Prompt 2nd3w;flat str
6/23 LAD 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/7 69 4.6-1 L Vie ins;resisted;yield

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	1m D	MSW	6th/7 -12L	52	31-1	b L	Chase;svd gnd;faded
9/10	RP	1m D	MCL 30k	3rd/6 -7L	58	5.0-1	b L	Press 2w; faltered
8/29	RP	1m T	MCL 30k	5th/9 -2¼L	59	5.5-1	b L	Inside; no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $20,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

8:54 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#10 · 27%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 5-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 89.46

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Iona McKinzie (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 72 · 68 · 69. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Kelbela at 7-2. Use #5 Jerry's Lady in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #10 IONA MCKINZIE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#10 IONA MCKINZIE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 22.5%).
#7 KELBELA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.5%).
#5 JERRY'S LADY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Over Reacted; pressure from #7 Kelbela, #9 Honor God; the shape helps #1 Spaced Out, #3 Free To Be Me, #8 Clocked; and works against #2 Over Reacted, #4 Charlotte Joy, #6 Sugar Tea.

Lead

2Over Reacted787Kelbela77

Press

9Honor God858Clocked78

Stalk

10Iona McKinzie803Free To Be Me781Spaced Out71

5Jerry's Lady81

No style yet

6Sugar Tea864Charlotte Joy83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Honor God

Iona McKinzie

Over Reacted

Free To Be Me

Clocked

Kelbela

Spaced Out

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jerry's Lady

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