1Lucille B▼R. Gonzalez · P. DamatoGonzalez · DamatoB62 6212-1Fair 20-14%
—62 62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 80Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 62 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 80Also today · Jockey R1: Ima Track Star 6-1, R6: Henie In Black 15-1, R8: As Catch Can 20-1, R10: Prince Dolce 4-1 · Trainer R4: Low Key Cool 7-2, R6: Milken Cookies 5-2, R8: Lady In Paris 15-1Switches from dirt to turf. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 6f D MSW 4th/8 -5½L 62 12-1 In range;2-4w;weakened 8/22 DMR 5½f D MSW 6th/10 -8L 62 9.0-1 Bpd/crowded st;3-2-4w 2Endless Smoke▼J. Valdivia Jr. · E. AlvarezValdivia Jr. · AlvarezB71 73 61▲+7@trip 7312-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +771 73 61@trip 73B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 80Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 73 61
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey J Jr Valdivia 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Trainer R3: Cupid Cowboy 20-1, R3: Fumano's Fire 20-1, R4: Gato Volador 30-1, R7: High Hull Gill 8-1Finished 5th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at SA, beaten 4 lengths. A 73 top number against a 80 par, so it fits the level.
PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.TROUBLED TRIP 2wd; bmpd5/16; 3-5wd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 22d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 SA 1m T fsMdSpWt 5th/10 -4L 71 8.0-1 2wd;bmpd5/16;3-5wd 9/7 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -3L 73 46-1 2wd; rallied for 2nd 7/18 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt 6th/9 -6L 61 36-1 3deep; bothered 1/8 3Royal Pearl▲E. Esquivel · M. McCarthyEsquivel · McCarthyA80 69 73▲▲+9@trip 802-1Fair 3-125%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best80 69 73@trip 80A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 802Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 69 73
▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 80Also today · Jockey R4: One Last Strike 6-1, R6: Shapoval 8-1, R7: Ryne Sandberg 20-1, R8: Ambaya 4-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: D'Yquem 7-5, R9: Free Closer 7-2, R10: Poor Connection 9-2Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 80, with 73 next best. Last start: 2nd in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
PACE CHALLENGE Few rivals want the front, so it may get its way early. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 1m T MSW 2nd/8 80 4.5-1 Press2w;clear1/8;naild 9/6 DMR 6f D MSW 5th/8 -6¾L 69 6.3-1 Chased 4wd;no response 8/9 DMR 6½f D MSW 4th/5 -8L 73 5.4-1 Off slow; 3wide; tired 4Nineteen Forty Two▼H. Berrios · D. BlackerBerrios · BlackerA726-1Fair 10-110%
—72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 80Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career 3-for-30 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Daniel Blacker 33% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: See Through It 2-1, R3: Golden Club 5-1, R8: Bojaca Blessing 5-1, R9: Free Closer 7-2 +1 more3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSGoes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call.
PACE HELPS Pace is thin and the closers will be bunched; the late run is the race.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 SA 6f T MSW 4th/7 -4½L 72 12-1 b 3wd;btwn; willingly 5Rosaura▼A. Ayuso · J. SadlerAyuso · SadlerB657-2Fair 5-116%
—65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 803Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 2-for-46 on turf this meet (4%) · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career ★ 6-for-23 on turf this meet (26%), #2 of 26Also today · Jockey R1: Hard To Figure 7-2, R3: Early Encore 2-5, R4: Dr. Filkins 7-5, R5: Tapalo 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R3: Early Encore 2-5, R8: Raw Ability 12-1, R10: Cali Cat 20-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYSDrops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 DMR 6f D MSW 6th/8 -9¾L 65 7.9-1 4-2wide; no menace 6D'yquem▲J. Spencer · M. McCarthySpencer · McCarthyA80 65@trip 807-5Fair 7-542%
—80 65@trip 80A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 801Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 65
▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 80Jockey J P Spencer 14% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 3-for-32 on turf this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R4: Low Key Cool 7-2, R6: Milken Cookies 5-2, R8: Miss Nightfall 3-1, R9: You Trust Me 30-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Royal Pearl 2-1, R9: Free Closer 7-2, R10: Poor Connection 9-2Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
EVEN PACE Can sit close in a field short on forward types.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled; ins; rally3deep. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 1m T MSW 3rd/8 -2L 80 5.7-1 Bobbled;ins;rally3deep 9/5 DMR 1m T MSW 3rd/10 by hd 65 5.7-1 Closest2w;led;yielded
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #3 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 2
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.69
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 D'Yquem (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 80 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Royal Pearl at 2-1. Use #5 Rosaura in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 D'YQUEM (7-5) — our number agrees.
- #6 D'YQUEM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.9% to their 32.8%).
- #3 ROYAL PEARL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.6% to their 26.3%).
- #5 ROSAURA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.4% to their 17.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Closers' Race. Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.
Likely leader: #3 Royal Pearl; pressure from #6 D'Yquem; the shape helps #1 Lucille B, #2 Endless Smoke, #4 Nineteen Forty Two; and works against #3 Royal Pearl, #5 Rosaura.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
WIN ($2) / PLACE ($2) / SHOW ($2) / EXACTA ($1) / TRIFECTA ($1)
SUPERFECTA ($.10) / ROLLINGDOUBLE ($2) / ROLLING PICK 3 ($1)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta