R3 Santa Anita Park · Gold St Juvenile

4:33 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $175,000 · 8 runners4:33 PM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $175K · Gold St Juvenile

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Early Encore▲▲A. Ayuso · J. SadlerAyuso · SadlerA90 85 91►2-5Fair 2-570%► Steady90 85 91A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 70% · Fair odds 2-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 90 85 91

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 86▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 6-for-43 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Hard To Figure 7-2, R2: Rosaura 7-2, R4: Dr. Filkins 7-5, R5: Tapalo 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Rosaura 7-2, R8: Raw Ability 12-1, R10: Cali Cat 20-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Winner of a 7-horse race at DMR last time. Runs for $175,000 after a $100,000 race last out.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/7	DMR	6f D	sImSmokinB100k	Won/7	90	0.9-1	3deep;clear;widened
8/7	DMR	5½f D	sGraduatinB100k	3rd/7 -½L	85	0.4-1	Duel inside; stayed on
5/24	SA	4½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8	91	0.5-1	Widened;in hand late

2Angel's Ember▲V. Espinoza · A. GarciaEspinoza · GarciaA86 756-1Fair 12-18%—86 75A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 863
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 86 75
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86
Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Antonio C Garcia 32% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Kahuna Magic 30-1, R8: Lady In Paris 15-1, R9: Tashie 30-1, R10: Magnify 3-1 · Trainer R5: Kahuna Magic 30-1, R9: Tashie 30-1
WON LAST
A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 SA 6f D sMdSpWt Won/9 86 1.2-1 b Outside;cleared upper
8/16 DMR 6f D sMdSpWt 3rd/10 75 5.8-1 b Keen ins;yield midstr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/9	86	1.2-1	b	Outside;cleared upper
8/16	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/10	75	5.8-1	b	Keen ins;yield midstr

3Empire of Ash▼E. Maldonado · G. PapaprodromouMaldonado · PapaprodromouB79 66 74▲▲+915-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best79 66 74B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 79 66 74

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey E Maldonado 36% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer George Papaprodromou 34% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Midnite Musket 4-1 · Trainer R1: Sendit Mo 3-1, R7: Beat The Man 10-1, R7: One Punch Wonder 8-1, R9: Ms Grainger Danger 30-1

A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today. Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	6f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/9 -3L	79	3.9-1	b	Chased 3-2wd; evenly
9/7	DMR	6f D	sImSmokinB100k	4th/7 -11L	66	6.4-1		2-4w;pass tired rivals
8/16	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	4th/10 -6¼L	74	13-1		Step slow;checkd early

4The Moe Show▼K. Frey · S. MiyadiFrey · MiyadiB75 56 56▲▲+25↕20-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best75 56 56 ↕B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–75 · Last 3 figs 75 56 56

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 9-for-34 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 5-for-14 on dirt this meet (36%), #2 of 23

Also today · Jockey R1: B Grayson 8-1, R4: Bello Rosso 20-1, R5: Dirty Words 2-1, R7: Beat The Man 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R7: Ryne Sandberg 20-1, R7: Calvin Graham 5-1, R9: Stay Bossy 30-1

WON LAST

A 75 is the high figure lately, short of the 86 par. Won last out in a 9-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at SA.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	5½f D	sMd50000	Won/9 by 1½	75	11-1		Bit slow;ins-2w;drftd
9/12	LRC	5½f D	sMd50000	5th/8 -5¾L	56	7.8-1	b	Pinched st;5-6w;no bid
6/28	LRC	5f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/6 -3½L	56	1.8-1		Off slow; lug in 3/16

5Golden Club▲H. Berrios · C. LewisBerrios · LewisA89 84 69▲▲+125-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best89 84 69A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 862

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 89 84 69

▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86

Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Craig A Lewis 26% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: See Through It 2-1, R2: Nineteen Forty Two 6-1, R8: Bojaca Blessing 5-1, R9: Free Closer 7-2 +1 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Switches from turf to dirt. Has moved up each time out, 69 to 84 to 89.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	SA	6f T	sMdSpWt	Won/11 by 1½	89	3.0-1	b	Offslw/inwrd;ins rally
8/6	DMR	5f T	sMdSpWt	3rd/8 -2½L	84	1.4-1	b	Stalked 2wd; clear 3rd
7/18	DMR	5f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/9 -4L	69	4.0-1	b	Brk in/bp;2w;best rest

6Believer▼T. Baze · R. HansonBaze · HansonC59 5820-1Fair 50-12%—59 58C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 59 58
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 24 · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Soi Ngern 15-1, R4: Chalky's Gold 10-1, R5: Joey Brackets 30-1, R6: Papa Santos 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Hammerbarn 12-1, R7: Freddie Blassie 6-1
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Best recent figure is 59, well under the 86 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/20 DMR 1m T sMdSpWt Won/9 by 1½ 59 7.3-1 b Bid inside;dug in late
8/6 DMR 5f T sMdSpWt 7th/8 -17L 58 16-1 Shuffl early;check7/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/20	DMR	1m T	sMdSpWt	Won/9 by 1½	59	7.3-1	b	Bid inside;dug in late
8/6	DMR	5f T	sMdSpWt	7th/8 -17L	58	16-1		Shuffl early;check7/16

7Cupid Cowboy▼A. Lezcano · E. AlvarezLezcano · AlvarezC78 78 66▲+720-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +7 · career best78 78 66C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 78 66

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Abel Lezcano 33% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Gato Volador 30-1, R6: Doing Time 2-1, R8: Raw Ability 12-1 · Trainer R2: Endless Smoke 12-1, this race: Fumano's Fire 20-1, R4: Gato Volador 30-1, R7: High Hull Gill 8-1

A 54-day gap since its last race. Purse goes from $100,000 to $175,000, a step up.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	DMR	6f D	sImSmokinB100k	3rd/7 -6½L	78	25-1	b	Ins-2w;angled;kept on
8/16	DMR	6f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10 by 2¼	78	52-1	b	3-4wd;rallied;got up
7/18	DMR	5f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/9 -7½L	66	36-1	b	3wide; along for 3rd

8Fumano's FireC. Herrera · E. AlvarezHerrera · AlvarezB81 65 71▲▲+1120-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +1181 65 71B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Last 3 figs 81 65 71

Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Ya'll Come 30-1, R7: High Hull Gill 8-1 · Trainer R2: Endless Smoke 12-1, this race: Cupid Cowboy 20-1, R4: Gato Volador 30-1, R7: High Hull Gill 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board here

Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 7 furlongs. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 13d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	5f T	Spkeasy Stk	2nd/6 -1L	81	43-1	b	Step slow;2-3w;gamely
9/7	DMR	6f D	sImSmokinB100k	5th/7 -6L	65	32-1	b	Bid5/16;turned away1/4
8/7	DMR	5½f D	sGraduatinB100k	4th/7 -1½L	71	53-1	b	Duel outside;weakened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Gold St Juvenile

Field

8 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

4:33 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 70%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 79.7

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Early Encore (early speed, M/L 2-5). Recent figures: 90 · 85 · 91. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Golden Club at 5-1. Use #2 Angel's Ember in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 EARLY ENCORE (2-5) — but VULNERABLE: stepping up in class from last start
#1 EARLY ENCORE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (57.9% to their 55.9%).
#5 GOLDEN CLUB — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.1%).
#2 ANGEL'S EMBER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 11.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Early Encore; pressure from #2 Angel's Ember, #5 Golden Club; the shape helps #3 Empire Of Ash, #5 Golden Club, #6 Believer; and works against #1 Early Encore, #2 Angel's Ember.

Lead

1Early Encore1012Angel's Ember93

Press

5Golden Club933Empire Of Ash928Fumano's Fire886Believer86

Stalk

none

7Cupid Cowboy944The Moe Show85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Early Encore

101

Angel's Ember

Golden Club

Empire Of Ash

Fumano's Fire

Believer

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

The Moe Show

Cupid Cowboy

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Bet types

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