1Chalky's Gold▲LST. Baze · L. PowellBaze · PowellA81 75 60▲▲+14↕10-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best81 75 60 ↕A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–81 · Last 3 figs 81 75 60
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey T C Baze 27% career 3-for-21 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Leonard Powell 30% career 2-for-23 on turf this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Soi Ngern 15-1, R3: Believer 20-1, R5: Joey Brackets 30-1, R6: Papa Santos 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Uncle Happy 30-160D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKDrops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $50,000. Tops the field on speed figures, an 81 against 80 for the next best.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brushd; 3-2w; 2w; angl in. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 19; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/16 DMR 1 1/16 T sMdSpWt 5th/6 -4¼L 81 31-1 L Brushd;3-2w;2w;angl in 6/1 MNR 7½f T MSW 3rd/10 -5½L 75 30-1 L Best others inside 5/7 TDN 1m D MSW 6th/8 -7½L 60 19-1 L No factor 2Bello RossoK. Frey · B. GalvinFrey · GalvinB75 63 61▲▲+1320-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best75 63 61BCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 75 63 61
Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career 2-for-28 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Brendan W Galvin 20% career 0-for-7 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: B Grayson 8-1, R3: The Moe Show 20-1, R5: Dirty Words 2-1, R7: Beat The Man 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: Henie In Black 15-10/3 board here6th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 9. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 11; 2 works in 30dRECORD Not on the board in 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T sMdSpWt 6th/9 -11L 75 45-1 L 2wide; no impact 8/15 DMR 5f T sMdSpWt 6th/10 -5½L 63 50-1 L Bpd early;2wd;no rally 7/26 DMR 1m D sMdSpWt 6th/6 -13L 61 33-1 b L Stalked; rail; faded 3Mordred's Revenge▼E. Garcia · D. BakerGarcia · BakerC7130-1Fair 50-12%
—71C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79Jockey Epifanio Garcia 33% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer D Wayne Baker 27% career 0-for-6 on turf this meetA big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $50,000, and worth asking why. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T sMdSpWt 8th/9 -12L 71 56-1 L Ins;pass tired rival 4Gato Volador▼A. Lezcano · E. AlvarezLezcano · AlvarezC53 5230-1<1%
—53 52C▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 53 52
▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 79Jockey Abel Lezcano 33% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R3: Cupid Cowboy 20-1, R6: Doing Time 2-1, R8: Raw Ability 12-1 · Trainer R2: Endless Smoke 12-1, R3: Cupid Cowboy 20-1, R3: Fumano's Fire 20-1, R7: High Hull Gill 8-160D LAYOFFLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. A 53 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 DMR 5½f D MCL 20k 9th/9 -10L 53 63-1 L Chased 2wd; faded 7/5 LRC 5½f D sMdSpWt 9th/11 -16L 52 72-1 Hesitated/off slow 5Dr. Filkins▲★A. Ayuso · S. McCarthyAyuso · McCarthyA81 72 78▲+6≡@trip 817-5Fair 8-537%
▲ Up +6 · career best81 72 78 ≡@trip 81A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 811Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 72–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 72 78
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 81Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 2-for-46 on turf this meet (4%) · Trainer Sean McCarthy 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R1: Hard To Figure 7-2, R2: Rosaura 7-2, R3: Early Encore 2-5, R5: Tapalo 10-1 +5 more5/8 board hereBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 80 next best. 0 for 6 at today's distance.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 1m T sMd50000 2nd/10 -1L 81 5.2-1 L Tip 3-4p;led;outfinish 8/8 DMR 1m T sMd50000 6th/11 -6L 72 5.4-1 L Bpd st;clip heels5/16 6/7 SA 1m T sMd50000 3rd/11 -½L 78 5.4-1 L Rail bid; blanket fin 6Wasting Aces▼A. Aguilar · P. AguirreAguilar · AguirreC43 65 66▼▼-24↕@trip 7520-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -2443 65 66 ↕@trip 75C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -24 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–69 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 43 65 66
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Paul Aguirre 22% career 0-for-5 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Hey Brother 10-1, R5: Doo Wop Don 4-1, R6: Joe Vittori 20-1, R7: Swift Appeal 5-2 +2 more3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKTrending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 65 to 43. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 1; 3 works in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 8 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/3 DMR 1m D sMd12500 9th/10 -16L 43 4.9-1 L Vied btwn;chsd;empty 8/13 DMR 1m D sMd12500 2nd/10 -½L 65 7.2-1 L 4w1st;traffc3/8;cut in 7/3 LRC 1m D sMd12500 6th/10 -½L 66 6.7-1 L Stalk;bid btwn;led;wkn 7Chaotic NeutralW. Orantes · M. PuypeOrantes · PuypeB67 80 69▼▼-8@trip 675-1Fair 6-115%
▼▼ Big drop -867 80 69@trip 67B3Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 80 69
Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Mike Puype 27% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $50,000 is an easier level on paper. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 22 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 SA 1m T sMdSpWt 8th/8 -5¾L 67 14-1 L Saved ground;no menace 9/3 DMR 1 1/16 T sMd50000 3rd/9 -2L 80 13-1 L Step slow;ins;willngly 7/19 DMR 5f T sMdSpWt 8th/12 -8¼L 69 45-1 L Shuffl early;ins;angld 8One Last Strike▼E. Esquivel · R. BaltasEsquivel · BaltasB736-1Fair 8-110%
—73B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career · Trainer Richard Baltas 31% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Royal Pearl 2-1, R6: Shapoval 8-1, R7: Ryne Sandberg 20-1, R8: Ambaya 4-1 +1 more60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS90 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Off slow; green early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/2 DMR 5½f D sMd50000 6th/9 -9L 73 6.3-1 b L Off slow; green early 9Low Key CoolJ. Spencer · P. DamatoSpencer · Damato?7-2Fair 6-115%
—Debut?2Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R2: D'Yquem 7-5, R6: Milken Cookies 5-2, R8: Miss Nightfall 3-1, R9: You Trust Me 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Lucille B 12-1, R6: Milken Cookies 5-2, R8: Lady In Paris 15-1Debut for this Acclamation gelding, whose dam is Mamacoolmamacool. Debut for a trainer who is 9% with first-timers, over 129 starts.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
First start. By Acclamation out of Mamacoolmamacool (Colonel John)Trainer P. Damato: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 31% in the money (129 starts)Jockey J. Spencer in turf: 4 wins from 18 (22%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/24 SA 5f 1:02.40 handily 44/58 10/17 SA 5f 1:01.80 handily 40/60 10/9 SA 4f :49.40 handily 35/54 10/3 SA 5f 1:02.80 handily 60/71 9/26 SA 5f 1:02.20 handily 60/73 10Duke of OrleansM. Americano · F. RodriguezAmericano · RodriguezA74 77 73▲+412-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +474 77 73ACard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 74 77 73
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Francisco Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R5: Wizard Of Westwood 15-1, R7: Calvin Graham 5-1, R9: Stay Bossy 30-1, R10: Uncle Happy 30-160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKGoes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (5F in 1:00.40), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/20 DMR 6f D sMd12500v 5th/12 -7½L 74 3.1-1 b L Ins;angled out upper 7/24 DMR 6f D sMd12500 2nd/11 -4¾L 77 4.8-1 b L Bpd/crowded st;2w;angl 6/7 SA 6f D sMd12500 3rd/13 -5½L 73 11-1 b L 5-3-5w turn;closd well
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #6.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $50,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.69
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Dr. Filkins (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 81 · 72 · 78. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Low Key Cool at 7-2. Use #7 Chaotic Neutral in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 DR. FILKINS (7-5) — our number agrees.
- #5 DR. FILKINS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (32.5% to their 32.7%).
- #9 LOW KEY COOL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 17.4%).
- #7 CHAOTIC NEUTRAL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 13.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #2 Bello Rosso; pressure from #6 Wasting Aces.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
WIN ($2) / PLACE ($2) / SHOW ($2) / EXACTA ($1) / TRIFECTA ($1)
SUPERFECTA ($.10) / ROLLINGDOUBLE ($2) / ROLLING PICK 3 ($1)
BET OPTIONS
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