1Kahuna Magic▼V. Espinoza · A. GarciaEspinoza · GarciaC78 76 79►≡@trip 9030-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady78 76 79 ≡@trip 90C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–79 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 76 79
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey V Espinoza 35% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Antonio C Garcia 32% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: Angel's Ember 6-1, R8: Lady In Paris 15-1, R9: Tashie 30-1, R10: Magnify 3-1 · Trainer R3: Angel's Ember 6-1, R9: Tashie 30-160D LAYOFFCLASS UPRanks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 8th, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $10,500 claiming race at DMR.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/27 DMR 6f D Clm 12k 8th/9 -5L 78 38-1 b L Stalk inside; no rally 7/30 DMR 6f D Clm 6k c 7th/10 -6L 76 11-1 L Off slow; inside turn 6/14 SA 6f D Clm 10k c 3rd/6 -4L 79 3.6-1 b L Chased 3wd; churned on 2Doo Wop Don▲A. Aguilar · J. MullinsAguilar · MullinsA93 79 85▲▲+11@trip 914-1<1%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best93 79 85@trip 91A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 86Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 79 85
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 86Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jeff Mullins 34% career 4-for-9 on dirt this meet (44%), #1 of 23Also today · Jockey R1: Hey Brother 10-1, R4: Wasting Aces 20-1, R6: Joe Vittori 20-1, R7: Swift Appeal 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R8: Baltic Fire 8-1CLASS DROPWON LASTBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 93, with 92 next best. Won last out in an 8-horse $8,000 claiming race at SA.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 5½f D Clm 8k Won/8 by hd 93 2.2-1 b L Inside; hand urging 11/2 DMR 6½f D Clm 16k c 5th/6 -5L 79 1.5-1 b L 2-3wd;mvd out;no rally 10/19 SA 1m D Clm 12k c Won/5 85 1.0-1 b L Bid2wd1/4;dueled str 3Check's on the WayD. Van · S. WilliamsVan · WilliamsB69 86 57▼-3↕@trip 866-1Fair 6-115%
▼ Down -369 86 57 ↕@trip 86B3Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 86 57
Jockey Dyke Drayden Van 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Sean Williams 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Sendit Mo 3-1, R7: One Punch Wonder 8-1, R8: May Day Ready 5-1, R9: Beautiful Dawn 15-1 +1 moreCLASS UP0/4 board hereA big drop, optional claiming to $10,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days agoRECORD Not on the board in 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x 9th/9 -5¾L 69 18-1 b L Bmpd st;ins;no factor 8/27 DMR 6f D Clm 12k 4th/9 -7L 86 8.0-1 b L 4-5wd;angled widest 7/23 DMR 1m D sOC20000n1x 8th/8 -11L 57 6.8-1 b L 3wd into str; eased 4Midnite Musket▲E. Maldonado · J. PeribanMaldonado · PeribanA91 87 75▲▲+104-1Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best91 87 75A▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 862Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 91 87 75
▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86Jockey E Maldonado 36% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jorge Periban 28% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTFigures are climbing: 75, 87, 91 over its last three. Winner of an 8-horse $6,250 claiming race at LRC last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LRC 5f D Clm 6k Won/8 91 1.7-1 L Ins;clear uppr;drw off 9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 6k 2nd/8 87 3.2-1 L Duel outsd;1/8;drifted 8/29 DMR 1m T Alw s 7th/8 -2¾L 75 18-1 L Speed;duel2wd;faded 5Tapalo▲LSA. Ayuso · S. KnappAyuso · KnappB87 85 89►≡@trip 9310-1Fair 8-110%
► Steady87 85 89 ≡@trip 93B▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86LSCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–89 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 85 89
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 6-for-43 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)Also today · Jockey R1: Hard To Figure 7-2, R2: Rosaura 7-2, R3: Early Encore 2-5, R4: Dr. Filkins 7-5 +5 more · Trainer R1: B Grayson 8-1, R1: Ima Track Star 6-1, R6: Gray Thunder 9-2, R7: Trojans Forever 12-1 +3 more★ FASTEST WORKMoves up from $8,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. The May 29 work, 3F in :34.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 93d back)RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 5½f D Clm 8k 3rd/8 -1½L 87 1.7-1 b L Chased 4wd; gained 3rd 9/12 LRC 5½f D Clm 10k 2nd/7 -4½L 85 2.1-1 b L Awkward st;wide turn 8/20 DMR 5½f D Clm 8k 2nd/10 -4½L 89 3.5-1 b L Bp st;ins-2w;splitfoes 6Arkadelphia▲A. Escobedo · L. MendezEscobedo · MendezC92 68 66▲▲+19↕@trip 8430-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best92 68 66 ↕@trip 84C▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 86Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–92 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 68 66
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 86Jockey Adrian Escobedo 36% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Luis Mendez 31% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot★ FASTEST WORKGoes 6 furlongs after running 4½ furlongs last time. Figure of 92 on the record sits above the 86 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 21 (4F in :46.60), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 LA 4.54545f D Alw n2ml 3rd/5 -2½L 92 11-1 b Pressed winnr;held 3rd 9/6 DMR 1m D Clm 16k 9th/9 -12L 68 55-1 b Spd;overtaken1/2;tired 8/16 DMR 5f T sOC20000n1x 8th/8 -5½L 66 37-1 b Bpd st;brush rail turn 7Wizard of WestwoodM. Americano · L. BarocioAmericano · BarocioC76 78 67►@trip 6715-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady76 78 67@trip 67CCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 78 67
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Librado Barocio 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Duke Of Orleans 12-1, R7: Calvin Graham 5-1, R9: Stay Bossy 30-1, R10: Uncle Happy 30-1 · Trainer R1: Hey Brother 10-160D LAYOFFSwitches from turf to dirt. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 DMR 1m T Alw s 6th/8 -2½L 76 4.3-1 L Bid ins;duel;gave way 8/7 DMR 1m T Alw s 8th/10 -2¾L 78 4.9-1 L Vied 5deep;3deep;faded 6/14 SA 6f D Clm 10k c 6th/6 -9L 67 1.3-1 L Alter in early;inside 8Joey BracketsT. Baze · M. MeierBaze · MeierC71 87 65▼-430-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -471 87 65CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 71 87 65
Jockey T C Baze 27% career ★ 6-for-22 on dirt this meet (27%), #1 of 24 · Trainer Monty R Meier 24% careerAlso today · Jockey R1: Soi Ngern 15-1, R3: Believer 20-1, R4: Chalky's Gold 10-1, R6: Papa Santos 8-1 +2 moreCLASS DROP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA step up in company: $6,250 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Inside-5wide; improved last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.60 on Sep 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 LRC 5f D Clm 6k n3l 4th/8 -7½L 71 12-1 L Inside-5wide; improved 8/22 LA 4.54545f D Clm 12k n3l 3rd/6 -4L 87 3.9-1 L Trbld st;3w;4dp;lost2d 7/19 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3lv 2nd/5 -6L 65 1.2-1 L Trbld st;ins;angld 3w 9Alpine ThunderT. Pereira · J. Hernandez Jr.Pereira · Hernandez Jr.C73 88 84▼▼-11@trip 8012-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -1173 88 84@trip 80CCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 88 84
Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career ★ 7-for-33 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jose Jr Hernandez 31% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R6: Gray Thunder 9-2, R7: So Cal Notte 15-1, R8: Little Jamie 10-1, R9: Lihue Princess 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Desert Hawk 30-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/6 board hereOff 49 days since the last start. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on Oct 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 LRC 5½f D Alw s 5th/6 -8L 73 1.7-1 b L 2wd;drifted out late 7/5 LRC 6½f D sOC20000n1x 5th/12 -5L 88 16-1 b L 3-5wide;tip out;mildly 6/21 LRC 5½f D Alw s Won/6 by 2 84 2.1-1 b L 2-3w;rallied;best late 10Dirty Words▲★K. Frey · R. ThomasFrey · ThomasA93 75 83▲▲+13@trip 1012-1Fair 2-131%
▲▲ Big jump +1393 75 83@trip 101A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 86★ Best at the trip 1011Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 75 83
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 86★ Best at the trip 101Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 9-for-34 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Ruby Thomas 36% careerAlso today · Jockey R1: B Grayson 8-1, R3: The Moe Show 20-1, R4: Bello Rosso 20-1, R7: Beat The Man 10-1 +3 more3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST3/5 board here2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at LRC.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: 3w; 4-5p; drew away.WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 LRC 5½f D Clm 10k Won/7 93 3.5-1 b L 3w;4-5p;drew away 8/2 DMR 5½f D Clm 10k c 7th/9 -10L 75 3.0-1 L 2wide; no menace 6/26 LRC 6½f D Clm 12k c 2nd/5 -1L 83 0.7-1 b L 3w;tip5w;drftd out/in 11Ya'll ComeC. Herrera · C. TreeceHerrera · TreeceC60 82 92▼▼-25↕@trip 9230-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -2560 82 92 ↕@trip 92CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 82 92
Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Charles S Treece 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetCharles S Treece takes over the training from Andy Mathis. Trending the wrong way on speed, 92 to 82 to 60.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 10d agoRECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 5½f D Clm 8k c 8th/8 -8¾L 60 5.9-1 L 3-4wide; no factor 8/27 DMR 6f D Clm 12k c 7th/9 -5L 82 4.9-1 L Inside; shuffled turn 7/18 DMR 6f D Clm 16k n3lc Won/8 92 2.8-1 L Press outsd;duel;game 12Come Out Fighting▲▼A. Bautista · J. FariasBautista · FariasB92 68 86▲▲+11↕@trip 8920-1<1%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 68 86 ↕@trip 89B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model <1% · Our #12 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–92 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 68 86
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meetHas won 5 of 10 going today's distance. Has run 92 against a 86 par for the class.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 LA 4.54545f D Clm 12k 5th/6 -7L 92 27-1 b L Push in st;pass tired 9/12 LRC 5½f D Clm 10k 5th/7 -6½L 68 8.1-1 b L 2wd-ins;weakened 8/20 DMR 5½f D Clm 8k c 4th/10 -3½L 86 6.5-1 b L Bpd st;chsd ins;no bid
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #6, #4, #7.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.98
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #10 Dirty Words (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 93 · 75 · 83. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Midnite Musket at 4-1. Use #3 Check's On The Way in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 DIRTY WORDS (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #10 DIRTY WORDS — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 30.6%, they've got 26.0%.
- #4 MIDNITE MUSKET — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.1%, they've got 15.6%.
- #3 CHECK'S ON THE WAY — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.7%, they've got 11.1%.
Model vs the morning line
- #10 DIRTY WORDS — we make it 30.6%, the morning line works out to 26.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #4 MIDNITE MUSKET — we make it 20.1%, the morning line works out to 15.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #3 CHECK'S ON THE WAY — we make it 14.7%, the morning line works out to 11.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 WIZARD OF WESTWOOD (15-1) — our fair 6.5% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: last out: "Bid ins;duel;gave way" — finished with authority
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Arkadelphia; pressure from #4 Midnite Musket, #7 Wizard Of Westwood; the shape helps #2 Doo Wop Don, #3 Check's On The Way, #4 Midnite Musket; and works against #6 Arkadelphia.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
WIN ($2) / PLACE ($2) / SHOW ($2) / EXACTA ($1) / TRIFECTA ($1)
SUPERFECTA ($.10) / ROLLINGDOUBLE ($2) / ROLLING PICK 3 ($1)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta